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Weekend Box Office Estimates (King Bomb?)
- Thread starter GhaleonEB
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R-User! said:Because I am a optimist at heart, I will predict that King Kong will make between 250-370 million. I know, I know. That's a "pretty big margin", but I don't care. I think that KK will make at least 250, and at most 375.
-Disclaimer- I reserve the right to say that I thought that King Kong would magically become (if indeed it does become) the first movie to earn 500 million+ since Titanic all along.
(Not likely, but if it were to happen, I would not be entirely surprised; being that a formula similar to that of what it would take for KK to make that kind of many has happened before during the same period of the year. i.e. TITANIC... read below...)
p.s. what do you all think that KK will make during the Valentine's day weekend?
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=titanic.htm
Weekend Breakdown Overseas Breakdown Similar Movies
1997
Date(Click to view chart) Rank WeekendGross % Change Theater Count/Change Average Gross-to-Date Week #
Dec 1921 1 $28,638,131 - 2,674 - $10,709 $28,638,131 1
Dec 2628 1 $35,455,673 +23.8% 2,711 +37 $13,078 $88,425,009 2
1998
Date(Click to view chart) Rank WeekendGross % Change Theater Count/Change Average Gross-to-Date Week #
Jan 24 1 $33,315,278 -6.0% 2,727 +16 $12,216 $157,467,971 3
Jan 911 1 $28,716,310 -13.8% 2,746 +19 $10,457 $197,881,813 4
Jan 1618 1 $30,010,633 +4.5% 2,767 +21 $10,845 $236,745,003 5
Jan 1619 1 $36,014,544 +25.4% 2,767 +21 $13,015 $242,748,914 5
Jan 2325 1 $25,238,720 -15.9% 2,771 +4 $9,108 $274,599,886 6
Jan 30Feb 1 1 $25,907,172 +2.6% 2,853 +82 $9,080 $308,100,203 7
Feb 68 1 $23,027,838 -11.1% 2,956 +103 $7,790 $337,355,666 8
Feb 1315 1 $28,167,947 +22.3% 3,002 +46 $9,383 $371,562,244 9
-----Can anyone see Kong making that kind of money on it's 9th/10th weekend?
Just wondering... :|
Not unless people go to it because it's so romantic. That was millions of people out on Valentine's Day dates.
jamesinclair
Banned
All AP Movie News
'Kong' Grabs Unremarkable $50M in Debut
Sunday December 18 8:48 PM ET
"King Kong" was less of a box-office brute than Hollywood expected, taking in $50.15 million in its first weekend, a sturdy start but unremarkable by Hollywood blockbuster standards.
=Bomba.
'Kong' Grabs Unremarkable $50M in Debut
Sunday December 18 8:48 PM ET
"King Kong" was less of a box-office brute than Hollywood expected, taking in $50.15 million in its first weekend, a sturdy start but unremarkable by Hollywood blockbuster standards.
=Bomba.
AdmiralViscen
Banned
Everyone raving about how good a 50-60 million dollar opening is, is forgetting to check the movie's budget.
Whenever a movie has a crappy opening, the first thing that happens is a flood of people talking about worldwide take, as if that means just as much as domestic take. Worldwide is a totally different ballgame, with different cost structures and distribution fees, etc. etc. Hollywood companies want a big domestic take when making back their money. Whatever sum they manage to take in worldwide or on DVD release is icing on the cake. It's the nature of the industry. I don't know why this concept has to be re-explained every time a movie opens below expectations.
Whenever a movie has a crappy opening, the first thing that happens is a flood of people talking about worldwide take, as if that means just as much as domestic take. Worldwide is a totally different ballgame, with different cost structures and distribution fees, etc. etc. Hollywood companies want a big domestic take when making back their money. Whatever sum they manage to take in worldwide or on DVD release is icing on the cake. It's the nature of the industry. I don't know why this concept has to be re-explained every time a movie opens below expectations.
Wafflecopter
Banned
It's a bomb. Period. Yeah it made over half it's budget back. Nice. It will have to make 600 to truly be a massive hit for the studio. This better have legs. No need for damage control, since nobody is attacking. Why be defensive? The opening weekend bombed. 200 was the production costs. Take a wild guess about the marketing budget. The person mentioning Worldwide being different is correct.
Patrick Klepek
furiously molesting tim burton
Saw the movie tonight. It was pretty great. No tears, though.
The rest of you should go wrap some presents or something. Damn. :lol
The rest of you should go wrap some presents or something. Damn. :lol
ConfusingJazz
Member
I think people are only seeing black and white in this thread. Believe it or not, there are shades of gray between a blockbuster and a bomb, and believe it or not, most movies fit between the two.
Kong is in no way comparable to a true bomb the likes of Pluto Nash or Howard the Duck, but since it didn't match up to lofty expectations, and will probably still make a profit (even if its outside the opening weekend *GASP*), its a bomb after the first weekend?
Personally, I don't give a shit one way or the other, I haven't seen it yet, but since it wasn't panned and its a 3 hour movie, I am willing to wait and see labeling it as a bomb, hit or meh.
I wonder what a thread like this would be like when Titanic opened with only 28 million and a 200 million dollar production budget.
Kong is in no way comparable to a true bomb the likes of Pluto Nash or Howard the Duck, but since it didn't match up to lofty expectations, and will probably still make a profit (even if its outside the opening weekend *GASP*), its a bomb after the first weekend?
Personally, I don't give a shit one way or the other, I haven't seen it yet, but since it wasn't panned and its a 3 hour movie, I am willing to wait and see labeling it as a bomb, hit or meh.
I wonder what a thread like this would be like when Titanic opened with only 28 million and a 200 million dollar production budget.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
I doubt peter jackson gives a shit. He's probably going "Can't believe they gave me all that cash just to make my childhood wetdream come true lol!"
The movie is reviewing well and it should turn a profit, I'm sure the movie studios aren't going to kill the guy and he should be able to find work. Yawn. I haven't seen it yet, really want to as well.
The movie is reviewing well and it should turn a profit, I'm sure the movie studios aren't going to kill the guy and he should be able to find work. Yawn. I haven't seen it yet, really want to as well.
AgentOtaku
Member
I'm also looking at it from the perspective of this generation which didn't grow up with Kong like previous ones did, not like how they've grown up with Harry Potter, Narnia or LOTR (the latter two being timeless anyways).
People know what Kong is in the sense that its a big fucking monkey that climbs and even bigger building...but thats about it
I'm sure this film just needs to find its audience which, judging from intial opening, hasn't yet (just like another film with a big boat that wouldn't float
)
People know what Kong is in the sense that its a big fucking monkey that climbs and even bigger building...but thats about it
I'm sure this film just needs to find its audience which, judging from intial opening, hasn't yet (just like another film with a big boat that wouldn't float
)Frankfurter
Member
AdmiralViscen said:
Hmm, I don't how much you have to pay for the cinema in the USA, but I'm quite sure it's less than in Germany (on weekends 7-8 Euros + 0.50/1 Euro for movies over 120/150 minutes) and therefore I think movie companies will atleast make as much profit from the revenue from most european countries (and probably also Japan) as they do in the USA.
gollumsluvslave
Member
Titanic says you don't know dick.
It may turn out to be a bomb, but we don't know that yet. Depends on the legs.
SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
What I don't understand is why so many people in this thread seem to be enjoying the movie's relative lack of success. Doesn't make any sense.
gollumsluvslave
Member
Couldn't care how King Kong does at the box office, but calling any movie a bomb after it's 1st weekend is premature.
My point about Titanic is that at this point there were no doubt many people like your self stating how Titanic had bombed hard because Big Budget plus low Opening Weekend = Bomb.
This much is true, so i'll amend my statement:
Pirates of the Carribean says you don't know dick
Pirates did $46mil opening weekend yet still went on to break $300 million ($305), it also had a sizable $140 million budget and had the same calls of bomb early on.
The chances of Kong being a bomb are high at this stage, but that does mot make it so.
I don't understand how king kong is considered a bomb.. while it didn't hit what people were predicting, it still made a shitload of money and saw a huge 40% increase from friday to saturday which is even bigger considering it opened on wednesday.
it may have not had the biggest opening of all time, but those figures point to this movie having some serious legs. people who were predicting Titanic numbers were just retarded. But this movie hitting over $300M certainly seems a given at this point. how that can be considered a bomb is beyond me. and with as well as it is doing internationally $700-800M worldwide is definitely possible.
it may have not had the biggest opening of all time, but those figures point to this movie having some serious legs. people who were predicting Titanic numbers were just retarded. But this movie hitting over $300M certainly seems a given at this point. how that can be considered a bomb is beyond me. and with as well as it is doing internationally $700-800M worldwide is definitely possible.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
Thats right Hollywood, NZ Challenges YOU
Eel O'Brian
Member
Solo said:
Solo said:
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
teiresias said:
Has it angered the Christians perhaps? Angered Christians = bank.
a 40% surge from friday to saturday sales indicates legs. a modest 24% (if estimates hold) drop from saturday to sunday also indicates great legs. not to mention it's second and third weekend frames also fall on holidays.jett said:
if you honestly will be surprised if it makes it to $200M, you really need to stay out of the boxoffice gross prediction business/threads.
edit - and $300M a given may be a bit optimistic, but in no way is $300M out of the question at this point. depending on awards it could go even further than FotR which was relatively subdued when it came to awards.
I edited my post. though saying that is a given is definitely less ridiculous than saying $200M will be surprising.jett said:Just as some of you say that the naysayers are too quick to call it a bomb, you are too quick to say that the film has good legs.
Titanic (not to draw comparisons) opened with a 3 day weekend of ~$35M and went on to gross $600M.. opening gross means nothing, it is all about legs.
as for being too quick to say a movie has legs, the more you type the more you seem to not know about these trends. a movie declines from friday to saturday, it typically has no legs. a movie that increases modestly (10-25%) from friday to saturday is pretty typical for a decent running movie. 40% or more between friday to saturday is typically pretty indicative of good word of mouth and long legs. as with everything in tracking, obviously you can't say "the movie has good legs" at the first weekend, but movies that tend to do the weekend ratios that kong did GENERALLY have excellent legs. next week will be telling, but if you follow how movies typically trend, everything right now points to kong having excellent legs.
not to mention LOTR did have a significant builtin audience on top of being great movies, so it isn't completely unusual that it did better up front than kong. king kong is a property generally associated with monster movies and camp. it could very well take longer to get some people into the seats who would otherwise be wary of it being "another godzilla". these people could significantly alter the backload of the movie's grosses.
another take on it:
another take on it:
AdmiralViscen
Banned
Frankfurter said:
You'd be wrong. Sry
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
Mind explaining why? I'm sure you are right, since i know dick about it, but how much do the Americans "lose" on a European ticket compared to an American sale?AdmiralViscen said:You'd be wrong. Sry
Frankfurter
Member
AdmiralViscen said:You'd be wrong. Sry
Why?
"$6.75 for matinee, $8.75 for evening for me. and this is a regular theater (not dining or anything)" is (a bit) less than we pay (although I have to admit that I'm surprised that the american prizes are nearly equal to the european) if we calculate with an average of ~€7.5 on weekends vs. $8.75.
I am also in midwest. I know other parts of the country are even more at $9 and possibly $10.. basically our prices are huge considering what we pay for other stuff in relation to the rest of the world. we get no break on movies.
interesting factoid. when I saw Star Wars: SE it was $5.75 for an evening showing. The oldest movie I can remember the price of is TMNT which was ~$3.something for matinee and $4 (IIRC) for evening. that and Three Amigos were probably the first movies I ever paid for and went to myself. and Batman (burton). but that was midnight and I think we paid a little bit more.
interesting factoid. when I saw Star Wars: SE it was $5.75 for an evening showing. The oldest movie I can remember the price of is TMNT which was ~$3.something for matinee and $4 (IIRC) for evening. that and Three Amigos were probably the first movies I ever paid for and went to myself. and Batman (burton). but that was midnight and I think we paid a little bit more.
distantmantra
Member
teiresias said:
It's currently playing at two theaters in Seattle, and every single showing Friday through Sunday was sold out with huge lines around the block. I'm sure the situation was similar at the other 67 theaters across North America.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
borghe said:I am also in midwest. I know other parts of the country are even more at $9 and possibly $10.. basically our prices are huge considering what we pay for other stuff in relation to the rest of the world. we get no break on movies.
Don't worry, you hit the jackpot on game prices.
CajoleJuice
Member
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCOCKLES said:Anyone seen the new shots of Kate Winslet.
She's gone from curvy, full WOMAN...to another fucking Lohan LA stick insect.
Oh the humanity.
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