Hyperactivity
Banned
Alright everyone, let's NOT have a last minute scenario, EVERYBODY VOTE
VOTE
VOTE
VOTE
VOTE
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Werewolf |OT| Was it all just a Dream?
- Thread starter Palmer_v1
- Start date
Xamtheking
Member
How long do you thinks the Day Phase is?
Nonononono
Hyperactivity
Banned
And I honestly don't care, people putting their votes only at the end of the day are stupid. Surely you can come up with a vote for whoever you think is scummy.
Or do you just want to find the nearest bandwagon to ride on again?
That's my secret. I always feel silly.
Hyperactivity
Banned
yeah, see this is why I want timeaisis just below rats in terms of votes. Or whoever else town also finds nearly as scummy. Because something feels off, and if we keep a 2nd person that we think is scum close to the main bandwagon, we can learn more from the way the lynch progresses, and scum might go one way or the other, along with town that change their mind on who exactly is more likely to be scum
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
CURRENT VOTE TALLY:
Rats Off To Ya (3)
Hyperactivity .2463
FluxWaveZ .2465
Swamped .2501
Timeaisis (2)
batsnacks .2605
Rats Off To Ya .2607
No active vote for Day 4:
Boo Boo'n
Burbeting
CrimsonFist
CzarTim
Fireblend
kingkitty
Lollipop Dave
Makai
QuantumBro
Sawneeks
Septimus Prime
Timeaisis
Trigger
ultron87
Xamtheking
Day 4 ends:
Rats Off To Ya (3)
Hyperactivity .2463
FluxWaveZ .2465
Swamped .2501
Timeaisis (2)
batsnacks .2605
Rats Off To Ya .2607
No active vote for Day 4:
Boo Boo'n
Burbeting
CrimsonFist
CzarTim
Fireblend
kingkitty
Lollipop Dave
Makai
QuantumBro
Sawneeks
Septimus Prime
Timeaisis
Trigger
ultron87
Xamtheking
Day 4 ends:
here's another read
Rats:
Okay, so the elephant in the room is the whole Swamped vig thing. Assuming she's telling the truth, she used her last bullet on one particular individual. This individual did not die however. Flux is pushing the idea that it was Rats, going back to his own rationale for why he thinks this guy is neutral or scum. Rats seems ok with Swamped pointing to him as her target, if that's the truth. From the surface, I would also think Rats was the target for Swamped. About 50 minutes after the game started, Swamped makes her first post of Day 4, and it's a vote against Rats. In addition, Swamped says her target was in her top wolf list, which Rats is a part of (I'm pretty sure). Although she then says "I wanted to avoid shooting at someone whom I could make a case against for lynching." Is she implying that Rats was not the target? Was Cornbro someone she thought she could not make a case against for lynching?
But if indeed Rats was the target (Swamped seems unwilling to confirm or deny) then I find Rat's reaction interesting. He says he wouldn't protest a lynch. You might think scum would want to combat this in some way. Perhaps scum Rats has an ability like override, something CzarTim had back in Donpgonra mafia. So while Rats seems like he's okay getting lynched, it might be a little trap. It should be noted that mafia could try to imply that there's a lynch bomb that might explode through a scum death. Such a play would usually be a bluff. An example would be the scum lynch candidate implying that the last person who votes for him/her would get killed. That might make townies panic and slip up some vital info. Or in the most ideal situation not vote for the candidate at all, but that's more of a pipe dream. I think a bluff of that type would be more of a last ditch effort after some flailing, not after some peaceful acceptance of being the lynch candidate. Of course, Rats accepting the possible fate of being lynched could be a way of scum psyching the town out. Townies might think "well scum wouldn't react that way, they would fight their lynch!". And thus, scum might get away with it. Or, as I mentioned earlier, it could be a ruse to drop an override.
However, for now I'm going to disregard the idea that scum Rats would have an override. If indeed he was the one attacked by Swamped, then that means he could be scum with the ability to survive at least one night kill. I can't imagine one scum member getting NK immunity + the ability to override/or some other day power. Seems a bit too overpowered, no?
There's also the possibility he might be a serial killer who can survive at least one night kill. If true, that's not a bad thing for town either. Sooner or later we do have to stop all threats, which include mafia + neutralz. To be fair, from my experience, a serial killer isn't always bad news. There was the kind spirited Karkador from Season 1. But for every Kark, there might be a cackling Makai from Donga mafia, destroying our hopes and dreams. And even with Kark, he had to eventually be put down to stop the threat of him going rogue.
We can't forget that Rats could be a townie PR that can survive at least one night kill. But in my opinion, I would think if a townie PR knew he had the ability to survive a night kill, he would try harder to defend himself. Instead of simply accepting a lynch without protest. So until Rats says something different, I'm going to assume from his initial behavior that he isn't some townie PR with an NK immune ability. Another true blue possibility is that Rats is just some regular boring townie, and Swamped was blocked in some way. Another true blue hue possibility is that Swamped never targeted Rats, and it was someone else.
If (a big if) Rats is the target, I can't really pretend everything is dandy. If Swamped is telling the truth about her role, and she actually targeted Rats (she hasn't actually confirmed this yet), then he goes on my suspect list. Answers are needed, whether that's through a Rats death, or some other revelation like us figuring out that Swamped was blocked in some way. Or that Swamped was omega scum the whole time. Was Rats jailed? Is that a possibility? Rats did not mention this in his reaction post. I would imagine claiming that you've been jailed would not give away the identity of the person who jailed you, so I don't see the harm in mentioning this fact if your life is on the line.
It's interesting that Rats put Time as one of his top scum. Time is at the moment, my top negative vibe candidate. You could say that scum Rats knew he would be unveiled sooner or later, and was trying to help create distance with his scumbro Time. But on day 3 Rats also briefly joined a bandwagon against Time, which was before scum Rats would know about his possible exposure. If Rats flips scum, I might have to reconsider my thoughts towards Time.
Rats:
Okay, so the elephant in the room is the whole Swamped vig thing. Assuming she's telling the truth, she used her last bullet on one particular individual. This individual did not die however. Flux is pushing the idea that it was Rats, going back to his own rationale for why he thinks this guy is neutral or scum. Rats seems ok with Swamped pointing to him as her target, if that's the truth. From the surface, I would also think Rats was the target for Swamped. About 50 minutes after the game started, Swamped makes her first post of Day 4, and it's a vote against Rats. In addition, Swamped says her target was in her top wolf list, which Rats is a part of (I'm pretty sure). Although she then says "I wanted to avoid shooting at someone whom I could make a case against for lynching." Is she implying that Rats was not the target? Was Cornbro someone she thought she could not make a case against for lynching?
But if indeed Rats was the target (Swamped seems unwilling to confirm or deny) then I find Rat's reaction interesting. He says he wouldn't protest a lynch. You might think scum would want to combat this in some way. Perhaps scum Rats has an ability like override, something CzarTim had back in Donpgonra mafia. So while Rats seems like he's okay getting lynched, it might be a little trap. It should be noted that mafia could try to imply that there's a lynch bomb that might explode through a scum death. Such a play would usually be a bluff. An example would be the scum lynch candidate implying that the last person who votes for him/her would get killed. That might make townies panic and slip up some vital info. Or in the most ideal situation not vote for the candidate at all, but that's more of a pipe dream. I think a bluff of that type would be more of a last ditch effort after some flailing, not after some peaceful acceptance of being the lynch candidate. Of course, Rats accepting the possible fate of being lynched could be a way of scum psyching the town out. Townies might think "well scum wouldn't react that way, they would fight their lynch!". And thus, scum might get away with it. Or, as I mentioned earlier, it could be a ruse to drop an override.
However, for now I'm going to disregard the idea that scum Rats would have an override. If indeed he was the one attacked by Swamped, then that means he could be scum with the ability to survive at least one night kill. I can't imagine one scum member getting NK immunity + the ability to override/or some other day power. Seems a bit too overpowered, no?
There's also the possibility he might be a serial killer who can survive at least one night kill. If true, that's not a bad thing for town either. Sooner or later we do have to stop all threats, which include mafia + neutralz. To be fair, from my experience, a serial killer isn't always bad news. There was the kind spirited Karkador from Season 1. But for every Kark, there might be a cackling Makai from Donga mafia, destroying our hopes and dreams. And even with Kark, he had to eventually be put down to stop the threat of him going rogue.
We can't forget that Rats could be a townie PR that can survive at least one night kill. But in my opinion, I would think if a townie PR knew he had the ability to survive a night kill, he would try harder to defend himself. Instead of simply accepting a lynch without protest. So until Rats says something different, I'm going to assume from his initial behavior that he isn't some townie PR with an NK immune ability. Another true blue possibility is that Rats is just some regular boring townie, and Swamped was blocked in some way. Another true blue hue possibility is that Swamped never targeted Rats, and it was someone else.
If (a big if) Rats is the target, I can't really pretend everything is dandy. If Swamped is telling the truth about her role, and she actually targeted Rats (she hasn't actually confirmed this yet), then he goes on my suspect list. Answers are needed, whether that's through a Rats death, or some other revelation like us figuring out that Swamped was blocked in some way. Or that Swamped was omega scum the whole time. Was Rats jailed? Is that a possibility? Rats did not mention this in his reaction post. I would imagine claiming that you've been jailed would not give away the identity of the person who jailed you, so I don't see the harm in mentioning this fact if your life is on the line.
It's interesting that Rats put Time as one of his top scum. Time is at the moment, my top negative vibe candidate. You could say that scum Rats knew he would be unveiled sooner or later, and was trying to help create distance with his scumbro Time. But on day 3 Rats also briefly joined a bandwagon against Time, which was before scum Rats would know about his possible exposure. If Rats flips scum, I might have to reconsider my thoughts towards Time.
Rats Off To Ya
Banned
I wasn't jailed last night. I received no notice of any action performed against me last night. I'm definitely not bulletproof. If Swamped targeted me, lost her bullet, and I'm still here, something weird happened.
I know you all have no reason to believe me now, but maybe you will soon enough. *shrug*
I don't necessarily want to be lynched, but I also don't want to continue to be a distraction for Town. So far we've only gone after soft targets with our lynches, while there is almost certainly a wolf or two among the active posters. Some tougher calls will be required in the coming days.
I know you all have no reason to believe me now, but maybe you will soon enough. *shrug*
I don't necessarily want to be lynched, but I also don't want to continue to be a distraction for Town. So far we've only gone after soft targets with our lynches, while there is almost certainly a wolf or two among the active posters. Some tougher calls will be required in the coming days.
That's what I thought immediately after post #2705, but the Jailer in game 1 seemed to have some kind of ability to establish a personal chat between them and the other player.
Fully possible that the role this time around would be a more normal version that can't do that or kill their captives.
I guess it is time to put down a vote (if not the final vote). While I outlined my lingering thoughts towards Rats and Swamped vig, for now my vote will actually be on Timeaisis. I've posted my initial thoughts on why I think he gives me the bad feelings here on Day 3. Instead of voting for him to be deep fried on Day 3, I voted for Zipped instead, who also gave me bad feelings at the time. Time has done nothing incredibly scummy on Day 4, but nothing he has done really changed my stance on him either. This doesn't mean I won't vote for Rats ever but Swamped never 100 percent confirmed if Rats was her target. There's a chance that Time might have been the target instead since I think Swamped has been suspicious of him for a bit. If this is the truth, that obviously does not help ease my vibes. In fact, the possibility of him being the target adds on to my negative vibes, like an extra cheese slice to an already fatty burger. This vote could change if there's some more clear info. Hyper suggested that we keep votes evenly split between Time and Rats...but honestly that seems ripe for last minute anarchy and potential ties. Also, I know I promised I'd give a read on Quantum but currently I'm kinda tired, and lazy so I'll post that later.
vote: Timeaisis
vote: Timeaisis
There are non-jailer roleblockers. I don't think we have a jailer tbh, we had a doctor instead and we have a strongman on the loose.
So players still alive:
01 [m] CrimsonFist - New
02 [m] Xamtheking - New
04 [m] Lollipop Dave - New
05 [m] FluxWaveZ - New
06 [m] CzarTim
08 [m] RobotNinjaHornets - Replaced by Trigger
09 [m] ultron87
11 [f] StarSketch - Replaced by Sawneeks
12 [m] Septimus Prime
13 [m] QuantumBro
14 [m] Timeaisis
15 [m] GreatLord Tiger - Replaced by Hyperactivity
17 [m] El Topo - Replaced by Burbeting
19 [m] Makai
20 [m] batsnacks
23 [m] Rats Off To Ya
25 [f] Swamped
26 [m] kingkitty
28 [m] Boo Boo 'n - New
29 [m] Fireblend
Out of them, we have claims on:
17 [m] El Topo - Replaced by Burbeting - Town Aligned Voyeur
20 [m] batsnacks - Town Aligned Witch
25 [f] Swamped - Town Aligned Vigilante (3-shot, all shots used)
That still leaves us with 17 people.
----
If we assume the SK and Wolves will kill every night, and there are nothing to interrupt them, we are looking at two lynches per night, and one per day. That means, we are looking at possible three deaths per one day-night cycle. That could mean that..
At the beginning of D4 - 20
At the beginning of D5 - 17
At the beginning of D6 - 14
At the beginning of D7 - 11
And that's just assuming there will be no other KR's at play, that could make any extra kills. If we assume, that the Wolves had six wolves from the start (which is possible, with 29 players...), that means there is still five wolves left. And that means, we don't have much time to catch at least some of them. And if there was actually seven wolves from the start (still somewhat plausible...), then we are looking at a LYLO situation in just two days... barring that there isn't any extra kills.
What I'm saying is, we can't give ourselves a false sense of security, that we much time left, even if there is still 20 players alive. Only one wolf is dead, and the town is still definitely in the losing side of this.
01 [m] CrimsonFist - New
02 [m] Xamtheking - New
04 [m] Lollipop Dave - New
05 [m] FluxWaveZ - New
06 [m] CzarTim
08 [m] RobotNinjaHornets - Replaced by Trigger
09 [m] ultron87
11 [f] StarSketch - Replaced by Sawneeks
12 [m] Septimus Prime
13 [m] QuantumBro
14 [m] Timeaisis
15 [m] GreatLord Tiger - Replaced by Hyperactivity
17 [m] El Topo - Replaced by Burbeting
19 [m] Makai
20 [m] batsnacks
23 [m] Rats Off To Ya
25 [f] Swamped
26 [m] kingkitty
28 [m] Boo Boo 'n - New
29 [m] Fireblend
Out of them, we have claims on:
17 [m] El Topo - Replaced by Burbeting - Town Aligned Voyeur
20 [m] batsnacks - Town Aligned Witch
25 [f] Swamped - Town Aligned Vigilante (3-shot, all shots used)
That still leaves us with 17 people.
----
If we assume the SK and Wolves will kill every night, and there are nothing to interrupt them, we are looking at two lynches per night, and one per day. That means, we are looking at possible three deaths per one day-night cycle. That could mean that..
At the beginning of D4 - 20
At the beginning of D5 - 17
At the beginning of D6 - 14
At the beginning of D7 - 11
And that's just assuming there will be no other KR's at play, that could make any extra kills. If we assume, that the Wolves had six wolves from the start (which is possible, with 29 players...), that means there is still five wolves left. And that means, we don't have much time to catch at least some of them. And if there was actually seven wolves from the start (still somewhat plausible...), then we are looking at a LYLO situation in just two days... barring that there isn't any extra kills.
What I'm saying is, we can't give ourselves a false sense of security, that we much time left, even if there is still 20 players alive. Only one wolf is dead, and the town is still definitely in the losing side of this.
Lollipop Dave
Member
In the previous Wolf game the jailer had an anonymous chat with their pick, iirc, if that role exists in this game the same as it was before, they might have made a deal on not to out the jailer for whatever benefit.
Lollipop Dave
Member
Could someone give me a quick rundown on anything important that I may need to be aware of since Friday night?
Xamtheking
Member
What is LYLO?
Lynch or lose. The day town has to lynch scum or it loses the game.
I think Swamped should reveal the last name at any case. There is a good possibility, that the scums have a roleblocker, so it could be that you were locked last night (assuming that being locked won't result in any sort of pm from the mod. Those rules have variations fron game to game).
At the moment I din't know how to proceed until Swamped tells the name, and she seems to say it only after more people chime in, which has not happened.
I'm okay with Rats lynch, but at the moment I might want to flip Kingkitty on or Makai first. Flux and Hyper bother me a lot, as well. Hmmh..
VOTE: kingkitty
For most of the game you have been nothing but a passive onlooker, never actively participating in the game. You just pop in, throw few very safe reads, and pop out once again. This is a role that Scum could very easily play out, looking very active without actually doing much at all.
Why should I trust you?
For most of the game you have been nothing but a passive onlooker, never actively participating in the game. You just pop in, throw few very safe reads, and pop out once again. This is a role that Scum could very easily play out, looking very active without actually doing much at all.
Why should I trust you?
Yeah, absolutely. How can we catch people in lies if they don't talk? I don't want to be lynching people for inactivity and getting lucky that one of them is a wolf. That's not really fun.
We need to hear more from these people, specifically their Top Wolves and their takes on the recent PR claims (Burb and me):
QuantumBro
Boo Boo'n
Trigger
Makai
Sawneeks (will give her a pass since she's catching up)
Dave (looks like he's getting back into things though!)
I strongly urge these people to put down a vote with some thought behind it.
The jailer theory makes too much sense for me to agree with you here. On N2, there should have actually been 4 kills. Now I fully agree with the possibility that both the wolves and batsnacks aimed at cabot, which is why thankfully there were only 3.
On N3, there should have actually been 3 kills. But there was only 1. Two killing roles got blocked here, and the easiest way to explain that is that they both got blocked at the same time instead of two separate elements coming into play in a coincidence (e.g. Swamped took aim at an NK BP, the wolves/SK took aim at a commuter or something).
It's this Occam's razor thing you guys like saying, the easiest explanation. A jailer would have blocked both Swamped and the other killing role simultaneously, leaving only the wolves/SK to kill MattyG.
Why do you think there was only 1 kill on N3 if you don't agree?
CrimsonFist
Member
I'd chime in on the Swamped thing, but I read through and I feel like anything I could add would just be repeating what's already been said. Guess I'll post my thoughts anyway, but don't expect much new:
So Swamped was a 3 shot vig, so assuming that there's also a serial killer role, that means that all the deaths so far would be accounted for, it also means that we should be expecting two deaths per night going forward, baring any other one shots.
So Ultron and *Splinter would likely be down to a serial killer then. I wonder if it might be worth going through their posts to see either of those two were overly suspicious of anyone who might have targeted them, although if the person who killed them is competent, they probably wouldn't have been that obvious about it.
So that leaves what happened last night: So the options are: Swamped was roleblocked but not informed, her target was bulletproof, or her target was unavailable in some way, so a commuter or jailed, or similar. If bulletproof, then I would assume that would rule out wolf, as they'd have less of a need for that role, and we've already had a town bulletproof role, so that seems unlikely too. Which would leave a bulletproof serial killer or other neutral role.
I also notice that Flux seems to have been the first one to raise the possibility of a Jailer, and seemed pretty confident that was what happened. Seeing as there looks to me to be a number of other possibilities, I wonder why that would be? I guess if the serial killer was jailed, that would explain away why there was only one death at least.
All this is assuming of course that Swamped is telling the truth too, but if she wasn't I don't see what would be gained from the role claim.
So Swamped was a 3 shot vig, so assuming that there's also a serial killer role, that means that all the deaths so far would be accounted for, it also means that we should be expecting two deaths per night going forward, baring any other one shots.
So Ultron and *Splinter would likely be down to a serial killer then. I wonder if it might be worth going through their posts to see either of those two were overly suspicious of anyone who might have targeted them, although if the person who killed them is competent, they probably wouldn't have been that obvious about it.
So that leaves what happened last night: So the options are: Swamped was roleblocked but not informed, her target was bulletproof, or her target was unavailable in some way, so a commuter or jailed, or similar. If bulletproof, then I would assume that would rule out wolf, as they'd have less of a need for that role, and we've already had a town bulletproof role, so that seems unlikely too. Which would leave a bulletproof serial killer or other neutral role.
I also notice that Flux seems to have been the first one to raise the possibility of a Jailer, and seemed pretty confident that was what happened. Seeing as there looks to me to be a number of other possibilities, I wonder why that would be? I guess if the serial killer was jailed, that would explain away why there was only one death at least.
All this is assuming of course that Swamped is telling the truth too, but if she wasn't I don't see what would be gained from the role claim.
Hyperactivity
Banned
N1:
Drop- Scum kill (right?)
Terrabyte20XX- Swamped vig. kill
Ultron87- ??? (according to batsnacks)
N2:
Cabot: Strongman kill, batsnacks kill
*Splinter: Scum kill? (2 seperate kills with strongman?), ??? kill
CornBurrito: Swamped vig. kill
N3:
MattyG- scum kill?, ??? kill?
Swamped blocked
Two main possibilities here- two kills were blocked last night and the strongman is additive to the main kill, or scum has the option for two kills with their strongman and we have no sk
Drop- Scum kill (right?)
Terrabyte20XX- Swamped vig. kill
Ultron87- ??? (according to batsnacks)
N2:
Cabot: Strongman kill, batsnacks kill
*Splinter: Scum kill? (2 seperate kills with strongman?), ??? kill
CornBurrito: Swamped vig. kill
N3:
MattyG- scum kill?, ??? kill?
Swamped blocked
Two main possibilities here- two kills were blocked last night and the strongman is additive to the main kill, or scum has the option for two kills with their strongman and we have no sk
Possibilities like what, an SK commuter?
Hey guys. Spent most of yesterday doing other things and couldn't keep up with the thread at all. I just went and read through the last pages.
Some read acknowledgements:
Not sure what I can say in response to this other than acknowledge it. Kind of sounds like a catch-22
This is an equally frustrating read, but I didn't want to group them together because they clearly come from different places. Again, sounds like more of a hunch than anything else. I'll just point out that when it comes to the Cabot thing, you've ignored my Occam's Razor argument for a longer time than I supposedly ignored your strongman one (along with the rest of town up til your reveal), which is the reason I've been refrained when it comes to that accusation. I'm trying to answer confidently so you understand that me looking for the simplest scenario was really all that was.
===
Alright, now onto some other thoughts. I believe Swamped's telling the truth, along with everyone else I guess. It's good to see the events of previous nights are getting cleared up, first because it's not nice to be in the dark, and second because I felt like figuring that out was distracting us from actually scum-hunting. Which is happening because I see plenty of reads in the last ~3 pages. Out of all those, I feel like Kitty's are the ones I mostly agree on.
Despite that, I'm gonna place my vote for now on Rats. I think if he's scum and he knows or strongly suspects that he was the one to dodge Swamped's bullet, he's doing the best play possible by attempting to get in front of it and trying to not be caught with his pants down when Swamped eventually reveals him as the target. I'll be keeping my eye on the thread for confirmation, but I feel like there's other stuff on him that substantiates a vote anyway; his posts have been very reactive so far, he's been happy to move with the bandwagons, he's said he's "an easy target" himself, that he's frustrated at not having much to contribute after saying he'd be trying harder if he was scum (?)...
Vote: Rats Off To Ya
More thoughts on people:
Time - I agree with him being suspicious. Having gone back to read some of Rats' posts, it seems unlikely they'd be both scum unless they were willing to play some really high-risk voting mindgames, which I find very unlikely.
Hyper - I feel like he's doing a good job of turning perception around because of his activity, but I still worry about how GLT was playing before. A difference in posting style and frequency is expected when a veteran subs in for someone who's new, but I feel like such a sharp contrast going from basically dead weight to a pretty opinionated poster would be even more apparent if the role was a scum one. Newbies get pretty anxious about being scum, having no idea what to post, and GLT could have been suffering from that. Still there are enough Hyper posts out there that I'm hopeful if there's ever a need to look at him further we'll be able to read him based on those rather than relying on a hunch about how GLT was playing. Ultimately I feel like he's doing a good thing by being outspoken.
Sawneeks - She's like the opposite of Hyper (considering both subbed in today), maintaining Sketch's inactivity. Sketch was among my suspicious reads on previous days, so this will have to stay for now. I'm also aware Sawneeks said something about a family emergency, so I'll wait and see if there's any changes today. I feel like she has an even tougher job than Hyper when it comes to rebuilding trust, and I'm hoping to see some action and specially reads before we get to her.
And just to have em out there, I'm going to name Burb, Kitty and Swamped as top town for now.
Fake edit: While writing this I noticed Burb placed a vote on Kitty. That's... interesting. I feel like Kitty's been a decent infrequent-but-useful poster, which I tend to prefer over a super-active poster with nothing to say. I'd like some more insight into this vote, if you don't mind.
Some read acknowledgements:
Not sure what I can say in response to this other than acknowledge it. Kind of sounds like a catch-22
This is an equally frustrating read, but I didn't want to group them together because they clearly come from different places. Again, sounds like more of a hunch than anything else. I'll just point out that when it comes to the Cabot thing, you've ignored my Occam's Razor argument for a longer time than I supposedly ignored your strongman one (along with the rest of town up til your reveal), which is the reason I've been refrained when it comes to that accusation. I'm trying to answer confidently so you understand that me looking for the simplest scenario was really all that was.
===
Alright, now onto some other thoughts. I believe Swamped's telling the truth, along with everyone else I guess. It's good to see the events of previous nights are getting cleared up, first because it's not nice to be in the dark, and second because I felt like figuring that out was distracting us from actually scum-hunting. Which is happening because I see plenty of reads in the last ~3 pages. Out of all those, I feel like Kitty's are the ones I mostly agree on.
Despite that, I'm gonna place my vote for now on Rats. I think if he's scum and he knows or strongly suspects that he was the one to dodge Swamped's bullet, he's doing the best play possible by attempting to get in front of it and trying to not be caught with his pants down when Swamped eventually reveals him as the target. I'll be keeping my eye on the thread for confirmation, but I feel like there's other stuff on him that substantiates a vote anyway; his posts have been very reactive so far, he's been happy to move with the bandwagons, he's said he's "an easy target" himself, that he's frustrated at not having much to contribute after saying he'd be trying harder if he was scum (?)...
Vote: Rats Off To Ya
More thoughts on people:
Time - I agree with him being suspicious. Having gone back to read some of Rats' posts, it seems unlikely they'd be both scum unless they were willing to play some really high-risk voting mindgames, which I find very unlikely.
Hyper - I feel like he's doing a good job of turning perception around because of his activity, but I still worry about how GLT was playing before. A difference in posting style and frequency is expected when a veteran subs in for someone who's new, but I feel like such a sharp contrast going from basically dead weight to a pretty opinionated poster would be even more apparent if the role was a scum one. Newbies get pretty anxious about being scum, having no idea what to post, and GLT could have been suffering from that. Still there are enough Hyper posts out there that I'm hopeful if there's ever a need to look at him further we'll be able to read him based on those rather than relying on a hunch about how GLT was playing. Ultimately I feel like he's doing a good thing by being outspoken.
Sawneeks - She's like the opposite of Hyper (considering both subbed in today), maintaining Sketch's inactivity. Sketch was among my suspicious reads on previous days, so this will have to stay for now. I'm also aware Sawneeks said something about a family emergency, so I'll wait and see if there's any changes today. I feel like she has an even tougher job than Hyper when it comes to rebuilding trust, and I'm hoping to see some action and specially reads before we get to her.
And just to have em out there, I'm going to name Burb, Kitty and Swamped as top town for now.
Fake edit: While writing this I noticed Burb placed a vote on Kitty. That's... interesting. I feel like Kitty's been a decent infrequent-but-useful poster, which I tend to prefer over a super-active poster with nothing to say. I'd like some more insight into this vote, if you don't mind.
Hyperactivity
Banned
The possibility of 4 separate people making upto 4 kills in one night is a lot to comprehend
CrimsonFist
Member
Commuter, two parties picking the same target, bulletproof, picking a invalid target in some way.
Jailer is a possibility, but it doesn't seem like the only one to me.
No, you're not elaborating.
Do you agree that there were supposed to be 3 kills instead of 1 on N3? We're not just talking about why Swamped's shot missed here, we're talking about why supposedly 2 killing roles were blocked. That thing about wolves having 2 night kills batsnacks came up with is obviously wrong after these role claims.
For my sake (so that I also have an understanding of the various possibilities instead of being stuck on the jailer thing) and so that I can see what you actually think, could you list what you actually think the possibilities were for 2 killing roles being unable to kill on N3?
Fire, I think it's problematic that kingkitty is a very passive participant. He just pops in, Makes few very safe reads, and pops out with "off to write another read!". He is not a skin questions, nobody is having him questions.
In short, he is playing in his own bubble, almost separated from everyone else. This position is something that a wolf would quite easily create, and it's very easy for wolf to post like that. It worries me.
In short, he is playing in his own bubble, almost separated from everyone else. This position is something that a wolf would quite easily create, and it's very easy for wolf to post like that. It worries me.
So:
1. SK + Wolves targeted MattyG
2. Swamped targeted bulletproof/commuter ???
I guess. Killing roles targeting the same person two nights in a row... I mean, that's also what you thought happened on N2. It can't always be that convenient solution.
CrimsonFist
Member
If we assume that there is a serial killer and that Swamped did indeed target someone, as well as wolves having one kill, then yes, there should have been three kills.
Other Possibilities then:
The target was a commuter and was targeted by both Swamped and the SK.
Swamped's target was a commuter and the SK went after MattyG.
Swamped's target was bulletproof, and the SK went after MattyG.
The SK is limited in some way and did not make an action, or pick a valid target.
There isn't a Serial Killer, and *Splinter and Ultron were killed by other one shot abilities.
Hyperactivity
Banned
Wait batsnacks, sorry if you've already answered this, but what did you mean when you said that protecting drop was too dangerous/obvious?
Just based on win condition, we probably have an sk
Just based on win condition, we probably have an sk
In N2 case, it's what I thought, it's what I saw.
If you don't trust me with how I've been playing, fair enough. I've never been a super active poster, but (at least in this game) I've tried to make my posts as worthwhile as possible. If you think my reads are "very safe", fair enough. I try my best giving reads, sometimes they might not add up to much, but I always try to give it a shot.
If you're annoyed people haven't been asking me questions Burb, then why don't you ask me some questions?
Well, here's the thing: you're ignoring whatever the wolves did in your possibilities, which is actually kinda bothering me.
You're focusing on Swamped and the SK here, but none of this is really telling me why two of these factions at the same time got blocked.
Reason 1 in your list does that, I guess implying that the wolves killed MattyG.
Reason 2 doesn't explain what happened to the wolf kill.
Reason 3 doesn't explain what happened to the wolf kill.
Reason 4 doesn't explain what happened to Swamped's kill and the wolf kill.
Reason 5... well, I just don't agree with that at all.
That's right, I was thinking pre-role claim. I just think the same happening two Nights in a row? Eh, it's a possibility. Can't be disregarded, I guess.
Oh wait you actually did ask me a question
"Why should I trust you?"
That's a big question. If you like my reads, if you think I've been helpful to the town, if you think I've been trying to find scum. But of course, if you think my reads are super safe, I haven't been helpful to town, that my death tonight is preferable to anyone else, then you might not trust me all. The only thing I can say right now is I'll try to do better.
Sorry I wasn't very active yesterday. The swamped reveal sheds some light on the events, that took place. Looks like we have another protection role of some kind. Or the target odds bulletproof.
As for today, looks like it's still between Rats and me, though. And seeeing as I'm not going to vote for myself
Vote: RatsOffToYa
I mentioned earlier he was one of my candidates for scum today, and the reasoning is essentially the same. I'm going to reread the last couple pages again now.
As for today, looks like it's still between Rats and me, though. And seeeing as I'm not going to vote for myself
Vote: RatsOffToYa
I mentioned earlier he was one of my candidates for scum today, and the reasoning is essentially the same. I'm going to reread the last couple pages again now.
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