This last year has gotten me to think about my future a lot lately. I think it started by reading wait but why's articles on the Road to Super intelligence ( 1, and 2). On how we may be closer to getting AGI than we think and what that means after we get it. Also CCP Grey's video Humans Need Not Apply has gotten me to realize that the first step to this take over may again be closer than we may think.
When I first heard this I didn't think it was correct, I thought what they were saying was true but their timelines were off but I've had a boring job for the past year and a half, where I can basically surf the web and this last year has convinced me that they are probably correct. I am really starting to think we are in the last kind of normal years and kind of at that at that 'calm before the storm' area of major and rapid tech advancement. And this positive feedback loop goes into crazy levels. I guess this helps me organize my thoughts as well but I'm going to list some projections so people can see where I am coming from. I of course don't know how this will be handled politically but this tech will be available soon and of course its all speculation at the end of the day. I tried to back up all my thoughts with sources so it doesn't look like I am just getting this info from my ass.
Data/Information
1.Its kind of hard to find statistics with how many smartphones users there are today but the most recent source I can find says there are ~2.6B smartphone subscriptions today, and while I'm sure every subscription is not a single user, I don't think most people have multiple phones and multiple subscriptions. This is projected to hit ~6.1 billion by 2020 . Meaning that you are going to be in the minority of the whole world which is projected to be 7,716,749,042 if you don't have a smartphone in 5 years.
2. That many smartphones means much more data will be gathered and we have already been running out of metric system. There will be a data explosion when you add more than double the users worldwide who will have constant access to the internet
3. If all goes according to plan Elon Musk's Space X will have functional satellites in 5 years, bringing constant internet to people all over the world. This would be along Google's Project Loon which has a similar goal.
The spread of information is looking like its going to be trivial pretty soon. Advancements will happen much faster as the spread of information will almost have no limits for anyone in the world, and I'm sure this will not be good for more repressive governments as the control of information will be harder than ever if not impossible.
Automation
1. It is projected that there will be ~10 million autonomous cars on roads by 2020 . Multiple car companies have said that they will have their autonomous cars on the road by 2020. Uber wants to have a fleet of autonomous cars by 2020. Which will dramatically reduce the cost of Uber as you will only be paying for gas and if they are Teslas you will only be paying for the electricitiy.
2. Self driving cars not only work, but seem to be working well . Speculation on my part here but I think the transition to driverless roads will be a fast one. From 2010-2013 151,758 people have died due to car related accidents in the US, which is ~32939.5 people dying per year during that time period. I couldn't find up to date data but ~18,600 have died this year from Janurary-June. Even if these things perform worse than they do today (with 5 years of additional data and a higher install base which would give more data) and killed 10,000 people per year, it would still be an obvious choice over human drivers who still average to kill 3x the amount per year.
3.Things like Hitachi's AI manager that has already improved performance by 8% in a trial run will be 5 years old with additional data making it better.
4.Chinese city Guangzhou wants to automate 80% of its manufacturing sector by 2020. Following the example of the factory that has already replaced 90% of its manufacturing with automation
5. Automation is looking to cut IT workforce needs by 25% by 2020
6. Big data analysis will be automated as of recently as last week there is "System that replaces human intuition with algorithms" that has outperformed "615 of 906 human teams.". Relevant info:The human teams got two months to work on their data models. The program only needed a few hours
Production
1. Cheap 3d scanners that may usher in 3d printing for the masses will have been available for 4 years as at the end of this year one is coming out for "a puny £149". Of course competitors trying to capitalize will probably bring this price down, maybe even more so as it looks like this technology will be soon be implemented into smart phones, with dev kits being sent for Android later this year.
2. The 3D printing market is expected to grow from $4.5B in 2014- $17.5B in 2020 as home printing and manufacturing increases. And things like bridges and possibly buildings being around by 2020.
3. Speculation on my end but I feel like we will see "advancements" in 3d printing production as $7000 3d printers that can print up to 10 materials at once will have been in development for ~5 years by then.
Miscellaneous
1. Solar power global market is projected to triple by 2020
2. Genetic Therapy testing for anti aging will have ~5 years of human trials and results. And continued gene therapy testing and results in patients that has already improved light sensitivity to 21/21 patients who have genetic eye diseases which should've left them blind.
3. Quantum computing logic gates using silicon which should allow for "millions of our qubits" doing calculations. Will be around for 5 years and (speculation on my part) should find an industry partner where they can start to manufacture the full-scale quantum processor chip. Microsoft believes we will have a quantum computer within 10 years and that't not even including the massive advancement made by UNSW with their silicon logic gate.
4. If you believe this video is a real demonstration (I do for the most part), then functional AR may be at our fingertips and by 2020 at least be a few years old with Google led $542 million backed company Magic leap is gearing up to build millions of devices and say the shipping date is "not far off". Dev kits have been out at least since june and I'm sure the 4 billion additional smartphone user base could help with development with apps.
5. VR will be ~4 years old
6. Artificial skin that sends pressure feedback to the brain will be 5 years old
7. High-capacity, soft batteries that are made from trees will be 5 years old
8. An EmDrive capable of thrust will have been around for 5 years. With people testing this in their houses this may(speculation) speed up development, especially with more people accessing the internet.
9. The "internet of things" is projected to be part of 38 billion devices by 2020. Of course good for machine learning and algorithms as more data sources will be available
10. IBMs Watson, will have had apps developed for it for 6 years. Many people will have access to the power of Watson over the cloud. Watson was better at diagnosing cancer in humans 2 years ago.
11. Machines that test for Cancer using dna will have been available for ~5 years
12. Lab grown meat is trying to be sold in stores in the next 5 years (2). Price of lab grown patty has dropped from $325,000 to $11.36 since 2013. And nothing stopping it from dropping further.
To be honest I haven't even listed everything from this year, there are still tons of things I missed. But in 5 years I think we will see the first major shift. I'm kind of worried that society may not know how how to react to this rapid change but I also think the change will be so constant it may not be that bad (well at least in the developed world).
When I first heard this I didn't think it was correct, I thought what they were saying was true but their timelines were off but I've had a boring job for the past year and a half, where I can basically surf the web and this last year has convinced me that they are probably correct. I am really starting to think we are in the last kind of normal years and kind of at that at that 'calm before the storm' area of major and rapid tech advancement. And this positive feedback loop goes into crazy levels. I guess this helps me organize my thoughts as well but I'm going to list some projections so people can see where I am coming from. I of course don't know how this will be handled politically but this tech will be available soon and of course its all speculation at the end of the day. I tried to back up all my thoughts with sources so it doesn't look like I am just getting this info from my ass.
Data/Information
1.Its kind of hard to find statistics with how many smartphones users there are today but the most recent source I can find says there are ~2.6B smartphone subscriptions today, and while I'm sure every subscription is not a single user, I don't think most people have multiple phones and multiple subscriptions. This is projected to hit ~6.1 billion by 2020 . Meaning that you are going to be in the minority of the whole world which is projected to be 7,716,749,042 if you don't have a smartphone in 5 years.
2. That many smartphones means much more data will be gathered and we have already been running out of metric system. There will be a data explosion when you add more than double the users worldwide who will have constant access to the internet
3. If all goes according to plan Elon Musk's Space X will have functional satellites in 5 years, bringing constant internet to people all over the world. This would be along Google's Project Loon which has a similar goal.
The spread of information is looking like its going to be trivial pretty soon. Advancements will happen much faster as the spread of information will almost have no limits for anyone in the world, and I'm sure this will not be good for more repressive governments as the control of information will be harder than ever if not impossible.
Automation
1. It is projected that there will be ~10 million autonomous cars on roads by 2020 . Multiple car companies have said that they will have their autonomous cars on the road by 2020. Uber wants to have a fleet of autonomous cars by 2020. Which will dramatically reduce the cost of Uber as you will only be paying for gas and if they are Teslas you will only be paying for the electricitiy.
2. Self driving cars not only work, but seem to be working well . Speculation on my part here but I think the transition to driverless roads will be a fast one. From 2010-2013 151,758 people have died due to car related accidents in the US, which is ~32939.5 people dying per year during that time period. I couldn't find up to date data but ~18,600 have died this year from Janurary-June. Even if these things perform worse than they do today (with 5 years of additional data and a higher install base which would give more data) and killed 10,000 people per year, it would still be an obvious choice over human drivers who still average to kill 3x the amount per year.
3.Things like Hitachi's AI manager that has already improved performance by 8% in a trial run will be 5 years old with additional data making it better.
4.Chinese city Guangzhou wants to automate 80% of its manufacturing sector by 2020. Following the example of the factory that has already replaced 90% of its manufacturing with automation
5. Automation is looking to cut IT workforce needs by 25% by 2020
6. Big data analysis will be automated as of recently as last week there is "System that replaces human intuition with algorithms" that has outperformed "615 of 906 human teams.". Relevant info:The human teams got two months to work on their data models. The program only needed a few hours
Production
1. Cheap 3d scanners that may usher in 3d printing for the masses will have been available for 4 years as at the end of this year one is coming out for "a puny £149". Of course competitors trying to capitalize will probably bring this price down, maybe even more so as it looks like this technology will be soon be implemented into smart phones, with dev kits being sent for Android later this year.
2. The 3D printing market is expected to grow from $4.5B in 2014- $17.5B in 2020 as home printing and manufacturing increases. And things like bridges and possibly buildings being around by 2020.
3. Speculation on my end but I feel like we will see "advancements" in 3d printing production as $7000 3d printers that can print up to 10 materials at once will have been in development for ~5 years by then.
Miscellaneous
1. Solar power global market is projected to triple by 2020
2. Genetic Therapy testing for anti aging will have ~5 years of human trials and results. And continued gene therapy testing and results in patients that has already improved light sensitivity to 21/21 patients who have genetic eye diseases which should've left them blind.
3. Quantum computing logic gates using silicon which should allow for "millions of our qubits" doing calculations. Will be around for 5 years and (speculation on my part) should find an industry partner where they can start to manufacture the full-scale quantum processor chip. Microsoft believes we will have a quantum computer within 10 years and that't not even including the massive advancement made by UNSW with their silicon logic gate.
4. If you believe this video is a real demonstration (I do for the most part), then functional AR may be at our fingertips and by 2020 at least be a few years old with Google led $542 million backed company Magic leap is gearing up to build millions of devices and say the shipping date is "not far off". Dev kits have been out at least since june and I'm sure the 4 billion additional smartphone user base could help with development with apps.
5. VR will be ~4 years old
6. Artificial skin that sends pressure feedback to the brain will be 5 years old
7. High-capacity, soft batteries that are made from trees will be 5 years old
8. An EmDrive capable of thrust will have been around for 5 years. With people testing this in their houses this may(speculation) speed up development, especially with more people accessing the internet.
9. The "internet of things" is projected to be part of 38 billion devices by 2020. Of course good for machine learning and algorithms as more data sources will be available
10. IBMs Watson, will have had apps developed for it for 6 years. Many people will have access to the power of Watson over the cloud. Watson was better at diagnosing cancer in humans 2 years ago.
11. Machines that test for Cancer using dna will have been available for ~5 years
12. Lab grown meat is trying to be sold in stores in the next 5 years (2). Price of lab grown patty has dropped from $325,000 to $11.36 since 2013. And nothing stopping it from dropping further.
To be honest I haven't even listed everything from this year, there are still tons of things I missed. But in 5 years I think we will see the first major shift. I'm kind of worried that society may not know how how to react to this rapid change but I also think the change will be so constant it may not be that bad (well at least in the developed world).
