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[StoOgE]

it happens every generation.. some series that was one of the biggest and best will fall flat on its face and cease to sell.. be mocked by GAFers and panned by the media.

Tom Raider went from GOTY to asstastic towards the end of last gen.. Street Fighter and Mortal Kombat are still popular, but have lost much of their glory from the 16 bit days... and there are a ton more examples.. generally speaking the formula for running a series into the ground is..

great original game + great follow that is really similar + third sequal in two year span that is the same as the last one + hey, lets make Street Fighter into a MoCap game based on the movie + Hey, lets make it 3d, that'll bring 'em back.

My early money is on Splinter Cell. The series is great, but the single player has remained largely intact. Lets hope they dont just rely on a prettier version on the next gen consoles.

Grand Theft Auto is my dark horse. Not only is it pumping out sequals like a pez dispenser, but there are at least a million "GTA-style" games on the horizon. On the other side of the coin however is the fact that GTA is a game that may try and do *too* much for this gen. With the increased power the series may actually improve more than any other.. plus it has yet to go online.. a multiplayer version could give it a fresh new spin.

 

[Gregory]

nm

 

[Chiggs]

Like you, my money is also on Splinter Cell. I'm already tired of it. As far as GTA goes, I doubt it will falter anytime soon. Rockstar could do a reworked and upgraded port of San Andreas for the Xbox 360, and the dicks of millions of gamers would instantly go hard.

 

[Speevy]

Dynasty Warriors *runs from Drinky*

 

[TekunoRobby]

Are we avoiding iconoclast games like Sonic, Mario, and PacMan since they still sell decently with their various incarnations?

 

[Speevy]

I don't think Nintendo qualifies. The company will probably have such a small presence next generation that you'll be rooting for Mario or Zelda to sell another 5-10 million, and though it might, the odds are against such an occurrence.

 

[StoOgE]

Are we avoiding iconoclast games like Sonic, Mario, and PacMan since they still sell decently with their various incarnations?

Well PacMan fell off a while back. I mean, its still around, but its heyday was the 80's.. Sonic has never reachieved the cultural symbol status it had in the early 90's. Mario probably isnt as big as it was in the late 80's early 90's but it still sells really well. Plus, the mario games are still really good. Sonic and Pacman, not so much... plus first party games doing well are tied to the system doing well... so Mario's drop off in sales could have more to do with Nintendo's sales dropping off than anything else.

 

[Cold-Steel]

Well, I'll take a stab at it and say that Sonic will be ruined by the Shadow installment into the series.

 

[StoOgE]

Well, I'll take a stab at it and say that Sonic will be ruined by the Shadow installment into the series.

Sonic has been ruined for a while.

 

[VALIS]

Splinter Cell seems like a good choice. Kind of like how Syphon Filter was a huge deal in the 64 bit gen and nothing now. SF: Omega Strain didn't exactly help things, though.

The Tony Hawk series is due to run out of steam any minute now. Then again, I've been thinking that since TH3 and people keep buying it.

 

[Cold-Steel]

Sonic has been ruined for a while.

Contrary to popular *coughGAFcough* belief, Sonic is still very popular.

However, I believe that will finally be shattered when SEGA ruins everyone's childhood hero...OR IS HE??

 

[Speevy]

That trailer was hilarious. Generally, when you show a progressive sequence of titles from a franchise's history, the new game is markedly better. When those ugly textures showed up, I just about gagged.

 

[Drensch]

GTA. I think the whole criminal thing will get old, eventually.

 

[border]

Splinter Cell, Ghost Recon, Rainbow Six, Prince of Persia....pretty much all of Ubisoft's "annual sequel" franchises.

Need for Speed, Medal of Honor, and James Bond 007.....EA's "annual sequel" franchises.

You can't keep milking stuff like this forever.

 

[Coin Return]

Mega-Man

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

Oh, come on. Like Mario, Sonic, or Mega Man are going anywhere.

The only way those franchises go by the wayside is if their respective companies go out of business.

My bet on a franchise going by the wayside is Jak and Daxter.

Eventually, like they did Crash, Naughty Dog will get tired of making new games in this series. Sony might hand the franchise off to another developer, but then the games would never be as good as the originals(Again, see Crash).

 

[The_Sorrow]

Most of the Tom Clancy games sales have dropped since there first installments.

I think Splinter Cell is a good choice though.

 

[Ristamar]

Well, I'll take a stab at it and say that Sonic will be ruined by the Shadow installment into the series.

I was going to say Sonic, but I think it'll still too popular in the UK to truely fall off the radar. I don't know what those Brits are smoking.

Splinter Cell, Ghost Recon, Rainbow Six, Prince of Persia....pretty much all of Ubisoft's "annual sequel" franchises.

Need for Speed, Medal of Honor, and James Bond 007.....EA's "annual sequel" franchises.

You can't keep milking stuff like this forever.

Good choices.

 

[sonycowboy]

When you're comparing franchises to Tomb Raider, you've got to think big. So what HUGE franchises will fail. (like Crash did this gen as well).

HUGE Franchises
-----------------------
Mario
Zelda
Pokemon
Gran Turismo
Halo
GTA
Need for Speed
Madden
Final Fantasy
Tony Hawk
Spider-Man
Metal Gear Solid

BIG Franchises
-------------------
Resident Evil
Splinter Cell
SOCOM
Jak & Daxter
ATV Offroad Fury
Dragon Ball Z
WWE
Ghost Recon

BTW, Here's my NPD Franchise sales for this generation that I posted a month or so ago (totals through February 2005 NPD). It's controversial for it's use of Mario, but it should be a decent guide as to what the BIG franchises are:

[b]FRANCHISE                        PUBLISHER                    LTD UNIT SALES[/b]
MARIO                            NINTENDO OF AMERICA              23,100,979
GRAND THEFT AUTO                 ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2)          19,715,640
MADDEN                           ELECTRONIC ARTS                  17,942,563
TONY HAWK PRO SKATER             ACTIVISION                       10,043,825
NEED FOR SPEED                   ELECTRONIC ARTS                   8,859,852
HALO                             MICROSOFT                         8,511,686
POKEMON                          NINTENDO OF AMERICA               8,387,325
STAR WARS                        LUCASARTS ENTERTAINMENT           7,850,285
SPIDER-MAN                       ACTIVISION                        7,606,932
DRAGONBALL Z                     ATARI                             6,897,813
NBA LIVE                         ELECTRONIC ARTS                   6,791,411
SONIC                            SEGA/(THQ)                        6,351,024
BOND                             ELECTRONIC ARTS                   6,173,172
WWE                              THQ                               5,648,124
MEDAL OF HONOR                   ELECTRONIC ARTS                   5,599,543
LORD OF THE RINGS                ELECTRONIC ARTS / VIVENDI         5,421,068
SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS            THQ                               5,278,866
YU-GI-OH!                        KONAMI OF AMERICA                 5,224,301
NCAA FOOTBALL                    ELECTRONIC ARTS                   5,058,564
FINAL FANTASY                    SQUARE-ENIX                       5,051,722
NFL 2K                           SEGA/TAKE-2                       4,955,141
HARRY POTTER                     ELECTRONIC ARTS                   4,831,628
CRASH BANDICOOT                  VIVENDI UNIVERSAL                 4,605,099
NBA STREET                       ELECTRONIC ARTS                   4,400,177
GRAN TURISMO                     SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY)         4,312,004
ZELDA                            NINTENDO OF AMERICA               4,290,056
SIMPSONS                         VIVENDI/EA                        4,268,789
TIGER WOODS PGA                  ELECTRONIC ARTS                   4,229,200
NAMCO MUSEUM                     NAMCO                             4,129,068
SOCOM                            SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY)         3,764,419
THE SIMS                         ELECTRONIC ARTS                   3,645,187
METAL GEAR SOLID                 KONAMI OF AMERICA                 3,556,038
JAK & DAXTER                     SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY)         3,491,379
PAC-MAN                          NAMCO                             3,490,828
SPLINTER CELL                    UBISOFT (CORP)                    3,444,560
ATV OFF ROAD FURY                SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY)         3,411,835
GHOST RECON                      UBISOFT (CORP)                    3,388,135
NBA 2K                           SEGA/TAKE-2                       3,170,498
SSX                              ELECTRONIC ARTS                   3,158,499
METROID                          NINTENDO OF AMERICA               3,152,400
MORTAL KOMBAT                    MIDWAY                            3,063,760
MAX PAYNE                        ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2)           3,055,839
KINGDOM HEARTS                   SQUARE ENIX INC (CORP)            3,013,093
NASCAR                           ELECTRONIC ARTS                   2,938,129
RESIDENT EVIL                    CAPCOM USA                        2,889,371
TEKKEN                           NAMCO                             2,866,987
MIDNIGHT CLUB                    ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2)           2,739,197
FINDING NEMO                     THQ                               2,681,111
FROGGER                          KONAMI OF AMERICA                 2,670,897
RATCHET & CLANK                  SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY)         2,575,911
MEGA MAN                         CAPCOM USA                        2,539,960
SCOOBY-DOO                       THQ                               2,437,478
TRUE CRIME                       ACTIVISION                        2,424,757
FIFA SOCCER                      ELECTRONIC ARTS                   2,406,990
MATRIX                           ATARI                             2,188,951
HITMAN                           EIDOS INTERACTIVE                 2,117,298
SPYRO                            VIVENDI UNIVERSAL                 2,111,144
DANCE DANCE REVOLUTION           KONAMI OF AMERICA                 2,090,990
MVP BASEBALL                     ELECTRONIC ARTS                   2,088,114
SOUL CALIBUR                     NAMCO                             2,055,526
DONKEY KONG                      NINTENDO OF AMERICA               2,025,723

 

[AntoneM]

k-9's ate seven sick five year olds

wait, that made no sense

I predict that SC3 will fall flat along with a general trend of all fighting games selling less. I also think that PGR will surprise and re-gain some of it former sales glory. Traditional console RPG's as a genre will sell less next gen than they did this gen with the expection of a Final Fantasy branded RPG's I make the traditional console RPG distinction sicne I see a drastic rise in the sales of MMORPG's

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

I can see Zelda falling off quite a bit.

It's been overused the last 8 years or so. (Realda will be the 9th game since 1998) Fortunately, the games have all been good, but gamers might get tired of it.

 

[AntoneM]

(Realda will be the 9th game since 1998)

what you say?

 

[Attack You]

Unless the PS2 version sells something fierce beyond all logic, I think Resident Evil is done. Maybe one more "farewell" game to wrap up the mythology, but that's it. RE4 just looks like too grand a production to sell like it has. It also worries me that Silent Hill, with as many releases as it had this generation, isn't on sonycowboy's list.

 

[Mama Smurf]

I'd probably go with Jak too.

 

[Kai Dracon]

I think part of what is really required for a big franchise to fall from grace is true laziness on the part of the developer - otherwise it just becomes somewhat less popular or "average".

Street Fighter, Sonic, Mega Man - all these franchises have fallen far from being old staples because of their respective developers messing up in a variety of ways, not just because they were no longer inherently "cool". Castlevania is a good example of a franchise that teetered (and maybe still does) on the brink. Inconsistent time between installments, saved by fantastic GBA titles, decent 3D PS2 titles, actually overcoming the Castlevania 64 stigma. In the current generation, developers like Rockstar are unlikely to make say, a GTA game where they just don't care at all.

Blah, all that said, some of my money is on Splinter Cell for reasons already cited. Same for a lot of franchises in the vein of the Ubi Yearlies. Rayman sadly, after an awesome Rayman 2, isn't going places like it should. Also, my own personal dark horse is Gran Turismo. For all the effort PD puts into it, they're determined to not deal with many core shortcomings much like Splinter Cell. Next gen GT5 may get some initial attention due to presumed awesome graphics, but tired game structure could finally take its toll. Of the ever-present icons, I think Sonic is in the most trouble if Sega doesn't go all out to save it. I have visions of Sonic Adventure 4 appearing using "that same fracking engine" ported to new consoles, and looking just slightly better than Sonic Heroes :lol

 

[Mama Smurf]

I dunno about Splinter Cell falling away. Gamers tend not to lose interest in something they've liked before for no reason. Street Fighter got screwed by 3D fighters, Tomb Raider's poor and too frequent sequels soon caught up with it, and Crash changed developer and publisher (so the games were worst, plus the marketing).

So far SC games have been successful and better each time. Ubi are really going to have to fuck it up somehow to have it noticeably reduce in popularity. I guess the only thing in favour of that is it's too frequent releases.

I guess you could say the same for the Jak series, which is my pick, but I only choose it because I just have a feeling ND are going to want to try something else again.

 

[sonycowboy]

My bet on a franchise going by the wayside is Jak and Daxter.

Eventually, like they did Crash, Naughty Dog will get tired of making new games in this series. Sony might hand the franchise off to another developer, but then the games would never be as good as the originals(Again, see Crash).

First J&D isn't really that big of a franchise, truth be told. They've sold well, but not well enough to be put up in the "air" that Crash occupied.

While it is true that ND got tired of Crash, Sony didn't own the IP. Universal did. So, it's monstrous fall (yes, it's sold alot, but the originals sold well over 10 million units worldwide, iirc) was something of a strange event.

ND has passed off a Daxter PSP game, but I'd expect that Sony will try and put some serious production into next gen for the series and for it to sell inline with the current series. Great in US, not so hot in Europe, and badly in Japan.

 

[evilromero]

GTA and Halo. Halo especially after the disappointment of the second title. GTA could see a lot of success if Rockstar improves the visuals drastically and tweaks the on-foot parts (and ditches the lame mission game design).

 

[sonycowboy]

I dunno about Splinter Cell falling away.
...
So far SC games have been successful and better each time. Ubi are really going to have to fuck it up somehow to have it noticeably reduce in popularity. I guess the only thing in favour of that is it's too frequent releases.

T. CLANCYS SPLINTER 2,589,556
T. CLANCYS PANDORA 855,004

I expect the third to sell even worse. The too frequent sequels and the odd release times are the real culprit here, not game quality. WTF release this game in March? It needs an October/November time frame.

 

[AntoneM]

I was thining of throwing up Halo, but then I remebered that Bungie still has control of the Halo franchise and all faith was restored... to the Windows, the Office, and the XBox, amen

 

[Mama Smurf]

What do the casuals think of Halo 2 anyway? I don't know how disappointed they were, compared to some of us more hardcore gamers.

It could turn out like The Matrix series (of films, not games). A great opening installment, doing surprisingly well, a ridiculous amount of hype for the sequel that nothing could ever live up to, plus some people were just disappointed even without the hype, and a second sequel that does really well compared to most equivalents, but not to the degree of the second.

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

T. CLANCYS SPLINTER 2,589,556
T. CLANCYS PANDORA 855,004

I expect the third to sell even worse. The too frequent sequels and the odd release times are the real culprit here, not game quality. WTF release this game in March? It needs an October/November time frame.

Bingo. People were still playing the first game when PT came out. Like a lot of sequels this generation, people just weren't quite ready for a sequel yet.

Halo 2 did a good job of hyping people up for it. It was released a few years after the original, so people had time to get anxious. If Microsoft had released a Halo game every year since 2001, we'd be looking at Halo 5 soon. And people wouldn't be as interested in the series anymore.

 

[Mama Smurf]

T. CLANCYS SPLINTER 2,589,556
T. CLANCYS PANDORA 855,004

I expect the third to sell even worse. The too frequent sequels and the odd release times are the real culprit here, not game quality. WTF release this game in March? It needs an October/November time frame.

I hadn't realised it'd dropped so much. Maybe there is something in it then.

 

[DopeyFish]

GTA and Halo. Halo especially after the disappointment of the second title. GTA could see a lot of success if Rockstar improves the visuals drastically and tweaks the on-foot parts (and ditches the lame mission game design).

GTA maybe.

It has gotten bigger and bigger with each iteration. It will probably be a couple titles until this one goes anywhere.


Halo... no.

Halo 3 is possibly the last game in the series, and it's going to be the best part. Halo 2 wasn't disappointing to most, either.

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

I'm not sure about GTA falling off. Theres a lot of people out there that only play GTA games. Of course, it might just be a fad.

But anyway, how many different variations of GTA can they come up with?


Then again, Activision managed 6 different Tony Hawks so who knows?

 

[Ristamar]

Speaking of which, how well did THUG2 perform in terms of sales?

 

[monchi-kun]

Dynasty Warriors *runs from Drinky*

actually that's one non-Nintnedo franchise that's discovered the springs of eternal youth...so yes, i agree

 

[SolidSnakex]

I'm not sure about GTA falling off.

People are always sure GTA is going to fall off. Vice City was suppose to fall off because people were tired of the concept. San Andreas was suppose to fall off because people weren't going to buy a game with a black main character.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

People are always sure GTA is going to fall off. Vice City was suppose to fall off because people were tired of the concept. San Andreas was suppose to fall off because people weren't going to buy a game with a black main character.

True. GTA isn't going anywhere folks, if anything it's going to get bigger and better. The concept of GTA has the most to gain from hardware like PS3. Bigger world, more interactive environments, more expansive/cinematic missions, etc. Oh and a MMO GTA would p'zone everyone many times over.

 

[Coen]

I don't think Halo and Grand Theft Auto sales will drop dramatically any time soon. Both games are just too relevant and their developers are smart enough not to pump out a sequel every year.

EA's annual sequels, the Tony Hawk series, Splinter Cell and smaller stuff like Jak, Ratchet and Prince of Persia are allready on their return. I don't think Namco's Ridge Racer and Tekken series will return to grace any time soon and with Soul Calibur III allready in development, it's probably going to be next. Capcom will have a hard time selling Resident Evil to the Playstation crowd. Metal Gear Solid will have a small, but loyal fanbase as will all Nintendo games.

 

[Polari]

Do the Soul Calibur numbers include Dreamcast? They seem a little low.

 

[boutrosinit]

Prince of Persia
Splinter Cell
Sonic
Soul Calibur
Final Fantasy unless they pull their fucking fingers out
Marvel games (EA has Imperfects coming out)

and...

Worms

 

[AniHawk]

what you say?

Ocarina of Time
Link's Awakening DX
Oracle of Ages
Oracle of Seasons
Link to the Past/Four Swords
The Wind Waker
Four Swords Adventures
The Minish Cap
The Last Hurrah

I noticed this back in 2002. They've really put the series into overdrive as of late.

 

[daegan]

Capcom will have a hard time selling Resident Evil to the Playstation crowd.

Let me tell you, you're going to be stunned by the numbers RE4 puts up on PS2. There are plenty of people waiting for it who weren't about to buy a Cube just for it.

I'm looking forward to Kingdom Hearts continuing to outperform Final Fantasy. I don't think Tony Hawk will drop far, though, as long as Bam is involved in a visible way (the way he is in THUG2). Bam is as much if not more of a draw for kids now as many who don't skateboard watch Viva La Bam.

GTA is in a strange spot - many, many, MANY copies of GTA titles return to retailer stock via specialty retailers and while the game will continue to sell, it won't continue to put up such disgustingly high numbers unless the detail rises to meet the challenge (eg. right now you can run around and shoot anyone; in the next GTA you need to be able to shoot them in the eye.) That said it'll still sell a metric asston.

 

[DDayton]

GTA seems like the kind of series that would die -- have there been any "tough, edgy" titles that lasted more than 8-10 years?

I guess it all depends on what scale we're talking about, though...

 

[SolidSnakex]

GTA seems like the kind of series that would die -- have there been any "tough, edgy" titles that lasted more than 8-10 years?

As long as none of the games turn out badly there's no reason it should fade off. MK is really the only comparable one too GTA, and there are obvious reasons that it faded off (MK3, MKT, MK4 ect ect). GTA actually seems to be gaining popularity with each title which is a rarity with any series especially one that sales as well as GTA does.

 

[Li Mu Bai]

Ocarina of Time
Link's Awakening DX
Oracle of Ages
Oracle of Seasons
Link to the Past/Four Swords
The Wind Waker
Four Swords Adventures
The Minish Cap
The Last Hurrah

I noticed this back in 2002. They've really put the series into overdrive as of late.

Why are we counting GB/GBA games? They should remain classified in the handheld sector, categorically seperate from the main platform installments. In this case there's been only 3 LOZs since 1998 (soon to be 4) & it's now 2005. 7 yrs. & 4 installments is not overkill by any means. LOZ:FSA was a spinoff/remake built to showcase connectivity, which imo does not qualify. Much how we view FF:CC aside from the main FF series, although it was original & unique. (MG:Acid as well) Even if FSA is counted, that brings the total up to 5 in 7 yrs.

The SC series will be up to 4 in this gen alone, SSX, FF, MK, J&D, R&C, Sly, Sonic, PoP, Tony Hawk, Tom Clancy, MOH, NFS, etc. are all up to 3 & 4 installments (in the case of Clancy more) & are prime candidates imo, excluding FF.

 

[Teddman]

This generation, it was Star Fox.

I think Nintendo ran that franchise into the ground on GameCube. They clipped the Arwings. The series crashed and burned. It's gone the way of the Dinosaur (Planet). Fox has been grounded before takeoff. :lol

 

[Li Mu Bai]

This generation, it was Star Fox.

I think Nintendo ran that franchise into the ground on GameCube. They clipped the Arwings. The series crashed and burned. It's gone the way of the Dinosaur (Planet). Fox has been grounded before takeoff. :lol

Syphon Filter as well. Although SFA has sold over 1 milion+ copies, & Assault is ass-tacular, I doubt Nintendo will cease pursuing the franchise. Afterall, none of these were developed in-house, as I suspect the next one will be. The franchise is still too recognizable imo.

 

[AniHawk]

Why are we counting GB/GBA games? They should remain classified in the handheld sector, categorically seperate from the main platform installments. In this case there's been only 3 LOZs since 1998 (soon to be 4) & it's now 2005. 7 yrs. & 4 installments is not overkill by any means. LOZ:FSA was a spinoff/remake built to showcase connectivity, which imo does not qualify. Much how we view FF:CC aside from the main FF series, although it was original & unique. (MG:Acid as well) Even if FSA is counted, that brings the total up to 5 in 7 yrs.

I can't believe I fucking forgot Majora's Mask. I'd include CE and OOTMQ if they weren't for sale on their own. That brings the total to ten Zelda games since 1998 including OoT. Ya know how much there was from 1986-1994? Four. Four games.

Now, they do enough to separate these. Some are 2D, some are 3D, a couple are upgrades, one is a connectivity title. I've loved just about every installment, but it's getting to the point where there just may be too many Zelda games.

I'd say the same about Metroid, but there haven't been nearly as many 2D games in the series as there should be.