Actually, the budget would be a hell of a lot less now, and to be fair also, a lot of the really expensive work on the game (the travel, the research, the models) has already been done. Shenmue's problem was that development costs were front loaded, and the game was ridonkulously ambitious, as well as, per the Sega curse, ahead of its time. To this day, it has done things that no other game has been able to pull off as well.
All of that detail came at a price though, both financially, an design wise. Sega's biggest mistakes when it came o this game were its completely untenable finaincial model, which meant the game simple COULD NOT make its money back unless the DC sold like the PS2, and it also had the problem of not having the first game be the first TWO chapters as oppose to only the first. I think the fact that the game took 40 hours or so to get Ryo off of japan when the bulk of the story was elsewhere was a mistake.
I've pretty much given up on Shemue 3, though I still say the Wii would be perfect for it, HUGE install base, lower development costs, and for some reason I think waggle would work with Shenmue.
As to the Yakuza Shenmue comparisons. Personally I have to say Shenmue is a far more compelling game. Yakuza's kabuki-cho seems so lifeless in comparison to any of Shenmue's locales. Also, Shenmue may have had the mysticism that I guess could have turned some off, I thought it was brought into the story slowly and organically. Hints existed since the first game, and when the final reveal of part 2 happens, it is very much a HOLY SHIT moment.
Yakuza OTOH, lost me when it came up with the absolutely ASSININE character of Kage, and his underground army of rich homeless dudes. Seriously, WTF, I could buy someone who has access to every camera in the city in a Metal Gear game, not in a gritty crime drama. It was more successful in moving the story along at a much better pace then Shenmue though.
Now going back to the Ultima VII conversation that didn't get addressed a few months back:
Duck Amuck said:
Did each character have their own name, background story? Things like that? Did people go out drinking at night wondering why they subjected themselves to drinking themselves into a stupor every night? Did it have things like some guy that hangs outside a yakuza office every day at specific times, causing you to wonder what he was up to? Did it have your neighbors do seemingly realistic things like take a break from work to go eat lunch, close their shops at night, and even walk to their homes or apartment complexes as opposed to just disappearing?
Yes, yes they actually did. It was AMAZING at the time, and Shenmue was the first game to actually do this since. Ultima VII had an insane level of detail that the series never got back to again, and it is a crying shame. What impresses me even more however is that Ultima V was doing a lot of this stuff (individual characters, day/night, and a daily schedule) in 1988 on an apple fucking II. Seriously impressive shit.
It still amazes me that so few games bother with this level of realism anymore. It really makes the characters, and by proxy the world, feel so much more alive when its inhabitants act like real people, and have LIVES outside of sitting in a shop all day. But outside of fallout/oblivion few games even try, and even those two don't have completely unique townspeople (did Oblivion? I can't remember.)