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[Delusibeta]

The 360 already offers a full IPTV service from the largest pay TV player in the market (Sky).

This is largely because Sky effectively beat everyone to the punch in that matter. However, it isn't what Patcher is talking about, since a) it doesn't cover the entire range of channel Sky broadcasts (only the channels Sky are involved in, so no BBC channels or anything like that) and b) it's not exclusive to the Xbox. Indeed, I'd happily bet that more SkyGo hours are viewed on iPads than Xboxes. Indeed, similar reason why Skype won't sell Xboxes: FaceTime is installed and ready to go with every iPhone, iPod Touch and iPad.

 

[gofreak]

Smartglass that feed to another device with a camera when necessary.

But if Grandma already has a device for skyping (the tablet she'd use smartglass with), the value of a relatively expensive TV console box and/or subscription just for the option to put that on the TV would seem to be of pretty narrow appeal?

I can definitely see the part of the argument about things like Skype helping a teenager make the case for a console to his parents - it's a story that in general is as old as the PS2 - but the idea of people buying one for Skype alone or mostly, in substantial numbers, ala 'Grandma' ... it seems like a big stretch. The video calling application already has a killer implementation in a more convenient/better vehicle that already has wide adoption. And in terms of the teenager, I think it'd be the collection of extra things the console might do rather than Skype specifically.

 

[REV 09]

excellent post Pach. I always appreciate your perspective on things. I had never considered the TV tuner stuff that in depth. I also think that subsidized pricing could be a game-changer.

 

[FStop7]

Does anyone not remember the disaster that was Cisco Umi? The one they spent a ton of money on to put video chat (fancied up as 'telepresence') on the TV, including hiring Ellen Page for their commercials?

This stuff is DOA before it even came out.

http://allthingsd.com/20120104/cisco-kills-umi-video-conferencing-product/

 

[gcubed]

But if Grandma already has a device for skyping (the tablet she'd use smartglass with), the value of a relatively expensive TV console box and/or subscription just for the option to put that on the TV would seem to be of pretty narrow appeal?

I can definitely see the part of the argument about things like Skype helping a teenager make the case for a console to his parents - it's a story that in general is as old as the PS2 - but the idea of people buying one for Skype alone or mostly, in substantial numbers, ala 'Grandma' ... it seems like a big stretch. The video calling application already has a killer implementation in a more convenient/better vehicle that already has wide adoption. And in terms of the teenager, I think it'd be the collection of extra things the console might do rather than Skype specifically.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=GrPLxBdxMpQ

cheaper then a monthly subscription to live without having to buy a $400 console with it

but most grandma's just use the ipad their kids got them

 

[BGBW]

Like I said in the other thread. In the UK I don't see the TV tuner being a big deal. The current hot thing is YouView (free channels, plus catchup, plus a DVR) with two of the biggest ISPs giving them away for free. Notice I say ISPs so they are already dealing with television here (not just set top boxes, they also offer television packages to compete with Sky and Virgin) meaning MS won't be able to swoop in and attract them with something they don't already do. Further the point about "cable" (we don't really call them that here) companies being limited by their area doesn't really apply here. The UK is so small so the television providers like Sky and Virgin can approach the whole country. In fact the current infrastructure means its easier to get TV in the middle of nowhere than the Internet so Internet based television will actually be a draw back.

 

[Cipherr]

sums it up

C'mon now.... Yes, he is taking a guess. He seemed to make that very clear in the beginning. Are you annoyed that he cannot predict the future with pinpoint accuracy?

Cut him some slack.

 

[Ace Harding]

Thanks Michael for posting your thoughts. You should do this more often. As you can see, people (mostly) respond well when you lay it out and communicate directly with the community, even if we don't agree with you.

I don't think the next Xbox will have the features exactly how you describe.

Skype is kind of a no-brainer, but as others have pointed out I don't think its really the killer app you describe. People who already use Skype are comfortable doing so from their laptops, desktops, tablets, and phones. Sure, I'd give it a shot from the Xbox, but if I need to make a Skype call that's probably not going to be my first choice. Plus the video chat market is already kind of fragmented - for example none of my family uses Skype; they use iChat or Google.

The ITV thing is an interesting idea, I just really, really doubt the U.S. (mostly the cable industry) is ready for it yet. There are a lot of barriers to successfully launching this fall with a working ITV option on the new Xbox. To "win" the generation with these "killer apps" Microsoft would need to launch with them both working right away. I don't see this happening with TV.

However, if they implemented the service in the way you describe, it absolutely would be a killer app for me.

 

[scytherage]

The TV tuner thing only benefits people in the US. Xbox support in countries outside the US has been spotty at best. I doubt that will change with the next generation.

 

[DEADEVIL]

The 360 already does this for many channels, provided that you already pay for a decent tier of cable TV. Why would you buy a $400 console + and pay a $5 monthly gold fee when you can get a cable box for $10/month from your cable company?

Easy.

Because you wouldn't have to pay $400 for the console up front.

The incentive is let's say, instead of paying $10 dollars extra a month to rent your cable box, you pay $40 dollars extra a month but you walk out with a brand new console/cable box.

In my opinion, that would actually be a huge incentive for the average new or existing cable customer.

 

[Slair]

If we were to assume that Microsoft would do all this. That the box could be a cable box, a TiVo box, a games console and a Skype machine. The console must be built flawlessly. If people are getting tv and phone deals through the Xbox as well as it being their only gaming machine, all it needs is for the next gen version of RROD and YLOD to rear it's ugly head and turn into a PR shit storm with people being stuck with basic channels.

 

[border]

The incentive is let's say, instead of paying $10 dollars extra a month to rent your cable box, you pay $40 dollars extra a month but you walk out with a brand new console/cable box.

So you would pay an extra $480 per year on your cable contract just to get an Xbox?

 

[DEADEVIL]

you can't get TV service out of your TV "area"

Why would you use your cable box outside of your 'TV area'? Which is literally the whole point of the subsidized SKU.

So you would pay an extra $480 per year on your cable contract just to get an Xbox?

I personally would pay $400 for the new system, but I could easily see millions and millions of people who would opt to have a spanking new console/cable box as opposed to a standard one for an additional monthly fee.

Again, not what Patcher is talking about. He thinks the cable companies will stream every channel on their service everywhere in the US, unhindered by download caps.

Yeah but he also caveated this by saying:

The trick to this working is to get the ISPs to lift data caps. That's a tall order, but for those of you old enough to remember, cellular service used to work the same way as cable television worked, with carriers assigned certain regions. That all changed a few years ago, and roaming charges evaporated as if by magic. In order for that to happen, the carriers had to agree to carry one another's service on their proprietary networks. It worked, and I think something similar will happen with ISPs if cable television becomes IPTV. The good news for ISPs is that IPTV will drive even greater adoption of broadband, and will make broadband more essential, so I think that if the next generation Xbox is an IPTV tuner, we'll see a lot of happy cable companies and ISPs..

 

[Delusibeta]

Why would you use your cable box outside of your 'TV area'? Which is literally the whole point of the subsidized SKU.

Again, not what Patcher is talking about. He thinks the cable companies will stream every channel on their service everywhere in the US, unhindered by download caps.

 

[AlphaDump]

What's in it for the ISPs besides admitting obsolescence in both hardware and services, in addition to then being inevitably phased out by MS?

How much does all of this cost before we get to hardware that provide highend services and games?

How's the security of this system and hardware integrity if it essentially controls everything?

Skype on a fixed box watching the living room would most likely make my grandma paranoid as hell, and if the integrity of the system was jeopardized and the media got a hold of it my family would probably unplug it.

Incredibly risky for both the 3rd party companies involved and users alike.

Funny enough, I dont think it is a bad prediction, nor out of microsoft's scope.

 

[gcubed]

Why would you use your cable box outside of your 'TV area'? Which is literally the whole point of the subsidized SKU.

Again, not what Patcher is talking about. He thinks the cable companies will stream every channel on their service everywhere in the US, unhindered by download caps.

exactly, and currently you can't actively stream live content outside of a service area without some loopholes/jumping through hoops. (A service provider can't, this doesn't count slingbox)

 

[jvm]

I like what Pachter has to say here, but I still had a gut reaction that I couldn't suppress...

Why Skype and a TV Tuner are neither killer nor apps. Discuss.

 

[SMD]

Easy.

Because you wouldn't have to pay $400 for the console up front.

The incentive is let's say, instead of paying $10 dollars extra a month to rent your cable box, you pay $40 dollars extra a month but you walk out with a brand new console/cable box.

In my opinion, that would actually be a huge incentive for the average new or existing cable customer.

I don't get it, what does Microsoft get out of subsidising consoles to cable companies for a deferred fee over two years? These aren't gamers who are going to go out and buy software, these are people who may decide to buy a couple of games for the box under the telly but you're not getting the benefit, because they're mainly watching TV.

As I said before, it's not broadening the market here, you're targeting a small subset of people who actually think it's a good idea. And also just in terms of reliability it's a headache, your machine will always be on - what happens if it gets a RROD? Then you're out a games machine and you have no TV. Convergence units are a headache when it comes to cutting edge technology. Cable/satellite boxes are passive and still generate a lot of heat - feel how warm it is in standby.

It's touch and go as it is with the 360S, I don't envy those with the older model watching Netflix all the time. Must be like Russian roulette.

 

[legend166]

What has a TV Tuner got to do with IPTV?

A TV Tuner is to get OTA TV. And considering every single TV sold these days comes with a digital tuner built in, I don't see the killer app potential.

 

[BlackJace]

I appreciate your post, Pachter, but I really doubt Skype being a killer app considering people have a bazillion ways to access it nowadays. Also, there's nothing stopping Nintendo and Sony from landing it too.

 

[Allforce]

I appreciate your post, Pachter, but I really doubt Skype being a killer app considering people have a bazillion ways to access it nowadays. Also, there's nothing stopping Nintendo and Sony from landing it too.

Besides Microsoft owning it?

 

[Ocaso]

I agree with most others here that the value of Skype as an exclusive is overestimated by Pachter.

However, the TV tuner speculation is is potentially more significant. One thing that hasn't been mentioned by most posters is the possibility that Microsoft could team up with cable providers to offer subsidized 720 consoles as part of their cable subscriptions. If Comcast already controls 50% of the market, then they are the obvious initial partner, and both have much to gain out of the deal. If, and that's a big if, of course, Microsoft is actually able to pull something like this off then it of course has the biggest advantage going into the next-gen race.

 

[Frillen]

I like what Pachter has to say here, but I still had a gut reaction that I couldn't suppress...

Why Skye and a TV Tuner are neither killer nor apps. Discuss.

Is that who I think it is?

 

[gcubed]

I agree with most others here that the value of Skype as an exclusive is overestimated by Pachter.

However, the TV tuner speculation is is potentially more significant. One thing that hasn't been mentioned by most posters is the possibility that Microsoft could team up with cable providers to offer subsidized 720 consoles as part of their cable subscriptions. If Comcast already controls 50% of the market, then they are the obvious initial partner, and both have much to gain out of the deal. If, and that's a big if, of course, Microsoft is actually able to pull something like this off then it of course has the biggest advantage going into the next-gen race.

it would have to be a significantly under powered box to perform as a full time set top box.

 

[statham]

I appreciate your post, Pachter, but I really doubt Skype being a killer app considering people have a bazillion ways to access it nowadays. Also, there's nothing stopping Nintendo and Sony from landing it too.

you can tell who read the OP and who didn't.

 

[GraveRobberX]

Why on earth would you buy your Grandma a Durango?

To Skype with her?

Yeah 16 years old really want that family fun time experience

This sounds so absurd

 

[dyergram]

I see how an Xbox and a silly oversized camera on your tv is going to be easyer than using Skype on a ipad or laptop. I would like to think if ms has a killer app it's not something they have already failed to deliver (iptv) or something that already excists (Skype).

 

[soundscream]

I agree with most others here that the value of Skype as an exclusive is overestimated by Pachter.

However, the TV tuner speculation is is potentially more significant. One thing that hasn't been mentioned by most posters is the possibility that Microsoft could team up with cable providers to offer subsidized 720 consoles as part of their cable subscriptions. If Comcast already controls 50% of the market, then they are the obvious initial partner, and both have much to gain out of the deal. If, and that's a big if, of course, Microsoft is actually able to pull something like this off then it of course has the biggest advantage going into the next-gen race.

I could see

2yr contract

$100 xbox 720

$140 month cable(no movie channels), Internet, xbox live gold.

Like cell phones break the contract, causes termination fee and paying for the difference on the console.

 

[paskowitz]

Lets take this section by section.

In my presentation at SXSW on Saturday night, I picked Microsoft to win next generation because I believe that they will include Skype and a TV tuner in the next Xbox. They have told me nothing, but the progression from Kinect, to voice search through Bing, to the integration of smart glass has led me to consistently "predict" that the next generation Xbox will have a TV tuner built in. The purchase of Skype for $11.5 billion in 2011 was done for a reason, and the fact that Kinect has a camera makes integration of Skype into the next Xbox a logical progression.

Are those really the driving two reasons you think they will win? I honestly believe they are two legitimately strong selling points but I think they are a far cry from "killer apps", especially Skype. You know what MS has going for itself? Live's "Apple effect" install base difference to competitors (PSN) in the US and UK regions (IE: My friends are on live so I do not want to switch. This is even bigger in the youth market where a friend's influence is higher). The populous buys what the populous buys. It is not going to be easy for Sony to win over the enfranchised COD and Halo 360 player either. If the TV deal lowers the entry, price, then that is the ONLY thing you mentioned that is going to "win" MS anything.

Why are either killer apps?

Skype first--My detractors on this site (and there are many of them) are quick to point out that Skype is available on many devices, including just about any laptop with a built-in camera and any smart phone or tablet. What they miss is that Skype isn't generally available with a wide-angle camera lens, isn't generally available in the living room, and isn't generally very easy for grandma to use. The next generation Xbox cures all of these issues, and lets anybody call anyone else by merely talking to their always connected Xbox. Again, I don't KNOW that this is going to happen, but it makes a lot of sense that it will. Why is that a killer app? Because if you're a 16 year-old living at home, it's an easy hook to sell your parents on the next generation Xbox by convincing them that the entire family can call grandma every night and say goodnight. I think it's even a compelling reason to buy a console for grandma, so she can video chat with her grandkids, and it conveniently gives the 16 year-old something to do when he's forced to visit grandma. I don't know for sure WHY Microsoft bought Skype, but this seems as logical a reason as any. I think that living room to any phone globally is a lot easier than PC to phone, and I think that people with families overseas or far away will be interested in making calls easily (and cheaply) via Skype if the service is included in a plug and play device like the next Xbox.

Wide angle lenses and living rooms are not Skype's problems (mothers, fathers, grandparents). Set up and ease of use are. MS would literally have to make it as easy as turning on a radio or picking up a phone. I do not know how much time you have spent around the elderly but sometimes even those things are a challenge. Kinect could help this "Skype, call grandson", but honestly, you are expecting a grandmother's son/daughter (the parents) to buy a 720 w/Kinect, then have decide if they want to pay the upfront cost or tie grandma into a contract. Sure more and more seniors are buying cell phones w/contracts for similar reasons (talk to family), but few can and do actually use them, most call via landlines. While mommy may make the purchasing decision, I do not think this is enough to convince her.

Lets take this outside of the family/grandma scenario. Is this really relevant to the majority of console owners age 18-35? Sure, just not as a killer app. A video overlay while player COD or Halo, sure, that is cool. Talking to my friends over Live, I already do that. Plus I have a smartphone, with snapchat, text and facetime as my communication tools. If MS had a bigger presence in the mobile space and actually pushed Skype heavily on mobile then maybe I would say there is enough momentum. But as it stands, no.

OK, that was the easy part. The TV side takes a bit more imagination.

Adding a TV tuner isn't really that big of a deal. However, the WAY the TV signal is delivered is a big deal. If Microsoft were to sign with one or more cable providers, the signal would not come over cable or satellite; instead, it would come over the Internet. Internet service providers are an impediment to this working (will discuss below), but if data cap issues are set aside for the moment, a cable company would be able to offer IPTV beyond their FCC-regulated region. That means that consumers could get any cable TV service in any jurisdiction (yes, this is U.S.-centric, but bear with me for a minute). Right now, Comcast has around half of U.S. households who subscribe to cable or satellite; if they had no territorial limitations, they could go for all households. That is meaningful to them, and to the guys who they plan to take market share from, so it is only a matter of time before everyone will sign up with Microsoft for this, assuming I'm right. I've been saying this for close to two years, and I think the technology has evolved to the point where this can happen with the next console.

Assuming I'm right, there are two advantages to the cable companies: first, the Xbox replaces the cable box (or at least, the primary box); and second, the cable company can sell service outside of its regulated area, since it will be selling IPTV. Choice is good for consumers, so the government will favor this outcome. It's an open question whether Microsoft can route the TV signal from the Xbox to other televisions in the same household wirelessly, but it seems that they could do so by attaching some sort of dongle to the other television, and trick the TV into thinking it was connected to a cable box. The cable company saves capital (no cable boxes to build), operating expense (no installation or service call), and ultimately can attract more customers.

The trick to this working is to get the ISPs to lift data caps. That's a tall order, but for those of you old enough to remember, cellular service used to work the same way as cable television worked, with carriers assigned certain regions. That all changed a few years ago, and roaming charges evaporated as if by magic. In order for that to happen, the carriers had to agree to carry one another's service on their proprietary networks. It worked, and I think something similar will happen with ISPs if cable television becomes IPTV. The good news for ISPs is that IPTV will drive even greater adoption of broadband, and will make broadband more essential, so I think that if the next generation Xbox is an IPTV tuner, we'll see a lot of happy cable companies and ISPs.

Why is this a killer app? Because television can go from a static delivery with a handful of programs on demand to a fully on-demand experience. If people are willing to pay, there is no reason why every episode of every TV show ever broadcast couldn't be pulled up and viewed on demand. This can absolutely happen with IPTV, and if a cable company has the rights to the programming, it is likely to happen.

The essential component of all of this is that the cable company sees the potential to sign up its customers to a long-term, high subscription price contract. This is similar to what mobile phone carriers saw when smart phones debuted, where data plans averaged $100 per month, and users got a subsidized smart phone in exchange for a two-year contract. I think we'll see the same thing with the next Xbox (if I'm right about the TV tuner): a subsidized console in exchange for a two-year cable TV contract. Other potential sources of subsidies are Microsoft themselves (subsidized console for a two-year subscription to XBL, at $20 - 30/month but including IPTV, XBL Gold and Skype for free) and ISPs (maybe a two-year broadband contract at $60/month or more).

Again, the 16 year-old who talks his parents into extending their current cable TV subscription or their broadband subscription for two years will end up with a cheap console. That makes Microsoft the favorite (for now), in my view.

Some of you asked why I had "predictions" now, instead of waiting for all of the details on pricing, features, specs and launch date to be announced? The answer is that SXSW was last weekend, and I had to write something. I may be wrong, but it's my best thinking as of now. Once we learn the details of the next Xbox, I'll modify my "predictions".

Hope that helps some of you to understand my madness a bit better.

First, like everyone has said, if this is IPTV then why would you need a tuner in the system? Is it coaxial or ethernet? This was not really made clear. Also if it is over ethernet, then it would seem that very little prevents the PS4 from doing the exact same thing. Even with that Sony could just sell an PlayTV-esk add on in the US. I am sure Sony has also talked with Google about GoogleTV and the PS4.

Essentially what this boils down to is MS offering a subsidy through a cable company and/or themselves to lower the entry price. What will likely happen is that at the end of the contract, the consumer will end up paying more. It just won't "feel" or "look" like it. How long do you really think the consumer will let this go unnoticed? Then you have to wonder how MS will handle multiple consoles in one home. Do they all get a subsidy or just the one tied to the cable company? Can one Xbox perform TV and gaming functions at the same time on two separate TVs (lol no)? Then Timmy has to get of COD when mom wants to watch NCIS. Not going to work. Finally, how will this work in emerging markets?

The biggest problem with the whole TV thing is the 100's of variables and the fact that the media industry is a mess of contracts, licensing, traditions and egos. I am not an expert on the media industry, but last I checked, any deal with them, no matter how logical is a laborious process. Do you believe that this will be available day 1 because just like Sony with Gakai, I sure as hell don't. This looks like something MS would literally have to have started when they launched the 360.

In conclusion, do these things matter? Sure. Are they killer apps, only IPTV if it lowers the entry price in major markets. Otherwise nothing you said really convinces me.

 

[JaggedSac]

But if Grandma already has a device for skyping (the tablet she'd use smartglass with), the value of a relatively expensive TV console box and/or subscription just for the option to put that on the TV would seem to be of pretty narrow appeal?

I can definitely see the part of the argument about things like Skype helping a teenager make the case for a console to his parents - it's a story that in general is as old as the PS2 - but the idea of people buying one for Skype alone or mostly, in substantial numbers, ala 'Grandma' ... it seems like a big stretch. The video calling application already has a killer implementation in a more convenient/better vehicle that already has wide adoption. And in terms of the teenager, I think it'd be the collection of extra things the console might do rather than Skype specifically.

Certainly. Was merely pointing out the interplay these devices can possibly have. If they open up some of the 720 to third parties I could see dumb(processor wise) extremely thin, inexpensive slabs of glass that use the 720 to serve up content for use around the house. Of course this can be done by anything else, but having a popular device with the capability would help such things take off.

 

[DEADEVIL]

it would have to be a significantly under powered box to perform as a full time set top box.

Why would it be underpowered at all?

Again, the 360 has the FIOS app working perfectly right now and this came 7 years after launch.

Finally, do you believe that this will be available day 1 because just like Sony with Gakai, I sure as hell don't. This looks like something MS would literally have to have started when they launched the 360.

Why would it have to have been started when the 360 launched?

They are literally selling subsidized 360s right now as we speak and we only heard about the idea in the same year.

All they have to di is like Sony just announce it and have it come to fruition the following year.

 

[JohnsonUT]

I know when Patcher makes some predictions, poster will chime in and say "this is not the analysis he is paid to do" or "these predictions are just for fun, but are not his real job." Do these statements apply to the OP?

 

[FStop7]

Why on earth would you buy your Grandma a Durango?

To Skype with her?

Yeah 16 years old really want that family fun time experience

This sounds so absurd

Especially when you can buy her an iPad and use FaceTime or a cheap laptop and use Skype.

The living room is becoming irrelevant.

There is also a flaw in associating "Microsoft" with "easy to use".

 

[crazy monkey]

skype will be big agreed on that part for sure.

 

[Commanche Raisin Toast]

What you describe doesn't need a tv tuner at all...

Not only that, but if regulations are modified to allow for this kind of thing, ms will need top hurry up and grab as much market share as possible before everyone else throws in their own devices that do the same thing. I could see a Google TV update instantly turning into exactly what the next box is doing sans the gaming.

So even if this feature is a killer app, it by no means sounds like it will be an exclusive one or hard to emulate and improve upon by competitors.

 

[Absinthian]

TV tuners are useless in Canada, and other places that only have digital cable or satellite.

 

[Big Takeover]

I've heard the rumors of subsidized Durangos, and I'm not sure how that fits into the plan, but I really don't believe Durango will have a TV tuner. Way too complicated for a multitude of reasons.

It makes far more sense to have HDMI-in, and overlay the OS functionality over the picture coming from your cable box, a la Google TV. Kinect is itself a giant IR blaster, so let it control your cable box. No expensive hardware, no region issues, 99% of the functionality needed to do cool stuff.

If cable co. subsidization is high priority, I'm not sure the hardware I just described would warrant it though. They could still do it of course, but it's not the perfect match of say cell phone, and service.

 

[GraveRobberX]

Only way Skype can become a big part of MS's Durango scope is if they do streaming content with it

Like the Onlive watch-in feature

Hit a friends name, see what they are playing, press "Live Look-In" bam, you are watching their content while it's being played
XBox Live Gold will enhance it by Video Chat to Video Chat while your gaming, take cross game chat to a whole new level
Get stuck in a part of the game, Skype your friend to come take a look and "troubleshoot" your problem

The TV tuner could become a stand-out deal, if MS gives up a lot of it's power
No way Cable companies are just going to hand over their systems to MS
Hell most are creating their own infrastructures to combat the Netflix's/Hulu's

Why would say Verizon allow MS to come in and try to meddle in their system
Verizon makes $30 off me alone for equipment rental/month (3 boxes, 1 Multi-Room DVR)
How the hell can MS compete?

 

[User Name Here]

Why the hell would I need a TV tuner on my TV?

And face time works fine.

 

[Lynn616]

Does the PS4 have HDMI in? It will need HDMI pass through to work as a Google TV.

 

[Dali]

Is that who I think it is?

Ugghhh... I think I'm officially old. When people say is that [insert actor as classic SNL character that became more famous later in his/her career] and I just want to look at them like "how do you not know who that is?" was always my litmus test. Like I used to be like "omg Eddie Murphy" and my brothers would just be like "wtf kid?"

 

[thepotatoman]

I don't mean that the Xbox next will actually tune to TV broadcast over the airwaves. Rather, I mean that the TV signal will be delivered over the Internet to the Xbox, which will decode it and determine if the recipient has permission to view it. That should work much like Netflix works now, with a separate interface through the console that is similar to (but different from) the Netflix interface on the Internet.

I understand the concept of IPTV, but cable companies have mostly matched all the functionality that IPTV gives with DVRs and Video On Demand services of their own. I don't see the cable companies being willing to undertake such a massive switch anytime soon. I feel like I'd be seeing a lot more small scale test markets done by the big cable companies if they were seriously considering it before they decide to jump in on a 80 million customer type deal.

I'd be much more likely to be onboard your prediction if you tempered it to be just a normal cable box with DVR and social internet functionality, but even then I wonder how the cable company's current VOD services and Microsoft's VOD services would be able to mesh. I somehow doubt either side would be willing to give up their services or allow them to coexist.

 

[Epcott]

I just don't see Skype as being that big of a deal.

I mean, who would they market it to?

A teen is more likely to use Oovoo or KiK on their phone in private than to utilize a big screen household TV everyone uses to say hi to a friend. That is, unless its in that teens room, and if thats the case, wouldn't they just use a pc camera?

Second, gamers seeing a talking face in a Skype box mounted in their game's HUD will see it as a distraction. If there is no HUD box, what makes it diferent than regular voice chat?

Thirdly, the only scenarios where families send Skype messages as a whole (using the shared living room space) is on holidays, during parties, in movies, and in Nintendo marketing videos. That means the rest of the year it'll be just a useless novelty.




As far as the tuner is concerned, it doesn't seem plausable on a world wide scale where internet and cable are not equal for everyone.

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

Actually, I'm one of the few that concurs if you look at my post a few minutes before you wrote this one.

I'm with you in your belief that if you just had this business model in the US alone, it could potentially increase the hardware numbers beyond what we have seen in any gen for consoles.

Meaning the cable/box SKU doesnt need PAL or any other territory for the NEXTBOX to be a huge success beyond the 360.

Not sure if you are actually catching wind that any of these deals have been solidified or close to fruition, but if you just asked the average consumer if they had the choice between a standard cable box or a console/cable box for a few more dollars there would be a huge percentage that would choose the latter.

Also, if you look at how ridiculously strong the marketing is for cable companies year-long, it definately would get alot of mainstream exposure.

beyond huh?
even pachter says the console market is going to shrink (overall), and he's the one saying these are the killer apps of durango.

 

[gillFTR]

Even it comes with coaxial tv tuner, I strongly doubt that this service will be available for europeans. Most of the stuff they talk about on the E3 stage about non game related services have never come to europe.

 

[JJD]

Sony can and will copy every successful MS initiative when it comes to Durango, or vice-versa.

MS might block a PS4 version of Skype, but Sony can easily implement PS4 to PS4 video chat, and they can look for partners like Google to get third party communication apps like Google Voice. Sony can even make a conferencing app between the PS4 and Vita with Android devices if they want to.

Sony is one of the biggest Google partners when it comes to Android and have invested a lot on Android development. They have an open channel with Google.

The TVturner thing is even more unlikely IMO. Why would cable companies willingly let MS into their business, or make then an exclusive partner?

I get it that removing regional barriers and providing content from the internet is the holy grail here, but frankly I doubt Cable providers would be dumb enough to limit their clients options to just MS. Netflix is available on dozens of devices because it wants to be avaliable to the highest amount of consumers possible. The smart option to Cable providers would be to offer their services on dozens of devices too, and not get dependent on a single partner.

Let's not forget here that differently than MS, Sony produces a lot of content and owns movie studios, music companies and TV channels (MS owns one too right)?.

They know this business as good if not better than MS, and they can easily offer the same kind of service.

I was a kid without money once, and had to resort to asking and sometimes begging my parents to buy all my consoles and games. But when I asked for a PS2, I didn't do it because it could play amazing DVD movies at that time (and we didn't even own a DVD player by then) I asked for one because it played the coolest games.

Kids will always want the console with the best games, not the ones with the best TV, music or conferencing apps, specially if you consider that they can get all that content just as easily from other devices that they might even already own.

The Xbox brand got to where it is today by offering kids what they wanted. Good games and internet based multiplayer better than everyone else.

 

[Skyzard]

Just read up to where it'd be a good console for grandma. You know there are laptops in the living room with skype already that families, not necessarily grandmas have more than likely already used, especially ones considering a next-gen purchase..? Pretty mobile usually, don't really need the wide-angle lens and it's even on phones now. Unless MS is about to end service on all those devices I don't see skype being a big pull even if it was somehow marketed towards her and designed in an ultra easy to use way...even though I'd like to have it personally, especially if the camera works well in low light..

Sony managed to get Skype on Vita and it works pretty well, might be able to get on PS4 as well..but it'd be surprising now.

 

[JJD]

Just read up to where it'd be a good console for grandma. You know there are laptops in the living room with skype already? Pretty mobile usually, even on phones now. Unless MS is about to end service on all those devices I don't see skype being a big pull even if it was somehow marketed towards her and designed in an ultra easy to use way...

My brand new 65 inch TV has Skype available from factory and a built in camera.

 

[Duxxy3]

Even though you won't get many to agree with you here, thanks for taking the time to explain your predictions.

 

[BlazinAm]

You dont need a TV tuner for IPTV.

Also the xbox 360 already does IPTV with Verizon fios.

Dude that is shit. Like 25 channels really?