I thought we were discussing the effect on generational transition i.e. in the event a consumer intends to buy a new console, what effect will online services/accounts have.
We are. You're making a claim that there's a certain level of investment in XBL, but I'm saying if such an investment is there, it's not negated by buying competing hardware, as their pre-existing hardware is still functional. People can have their cake and eat it, so to speak.
Are you implying that that XBL is actually detrimental to a generational transition - even under the assumption that the account is entirely transferable to the next generation?
I'm saying that people aren't going to immediately transition, especially people buying 360s this late in the cycle, so MS will have to consider that, which may curb major changes to the service that would impede 360 owners from using it. We could hope they'd repeat what they did with original Xbox owners, but it really depends on what they plan to do with the service.
Sorry, but this doesn't really answer anything. Essentially you're saying that assuming some sort of monumental fuck up on Microsoft's part people will discard their online personas and friends list and build anew on a different platform.
Unspecified unforeseen circumstances could make Microsoft's the best or worst selling console of the 8th gen. Unforeseen circumstances could make consoles as a whole irrelevant.
It's really no basis for discussion, because I agree entirely, if Microsoft screws up, if they lose touch with consumers, then they'll lose marketshare. If any of the three screw up then they lose marketshare.
That doesn't make XBL irrelevant to the generational transition.
It's not even about fucking up, it's about a change in the wants of consumers, something that MS doesn't have any control over. The needs and desires of consumers change over time, and the value they place in something like XBL changes with it. People take things for granted all the time, and I can see XBL slipping easily into that category, that was my point.
But that's the point, although we may differ on how much of a selling point - it's a selling point that will affect consumer choices.
Exactly, the discussion we're having is on how much sway it actually has. Years of internet history proves that people transition to other services all the time, QUITE FREQUENTLY. The minuscule 20 million XBL users being compared to Facebook's userbase is not a comparison to make, especially if, say, Nintendo manages to sell 100 million Wii U consoles with a 50% service usage ratio and crushes XBL user stats, which they may achieve if they advertise their social components that appeal to the smartphone generation.
It's December 2014. Jimmy has an XBOX 360 and plays CoD etc. with his friends on XBL. He has his 100,000 or whatever gamerscore. He's spent over $100 on XBLA. He can carry all of this over to the 720.
He's going to buy a new console.
There's a $400 PS4 or X720 and a $300 Wii U. All else being relatively equal - third party support etc. - he gets doesn't get the 720 because?
See, this is where our approach on the discussion differs.
"All things being equal" isn't something you can factor in, because it's NEVER equal, first of all.
Secondly, it makes the assumption that all XBL users put a high priority on things like a gamerscore, which is a hugely bold assumption that has no empirical data to reference back to.
Third, your suggestion invalidates the option of retaining these things by being a legacy hardware owner, which many 360 owners are likely to be, especially if they're won over by one of the competition's products by factors that can't be determined.
All 3 of these factors must be addressed when approaching this subject, and so far, our only example of online user retention are Google services and Facebook, and they are where they are by either not having valid competition, being in the right place at the right time or both. Not exactly the poster children to use for irrefutable evidence when it ignores everything that came before it and doesn't meet all of the same criteria, such as not being platform-dependent, which XBL is.
I'm not sure what you mean by the last part. If anything smartphones are a prime example of service vendor-lock in. An iOS owner is more likely to purchase iOS products in the future because of carryover of Apps; likewise Android.
I was making commentary about how cell phones have made us anti-social, jokingly invalidating the concept of people placing value on something social. Hence the onomatopoeia for
a rimshot.