Something like that.
$299 + New Super Mario Bros. U pack-in at launch, mark my words. Maybe $5-10 profit for them for launch units or so.
I really wonder what kind of hardware you could get for a ~$130-180 base unit right now (let's substract controller + BD drive + packaging/marketing etc). My guess is a really small CPU and quite a big GPU, like the GameCube had.
Nintendo can get pretty good hardware for that price.
360 costs $200 in stores with a 4GB harddrive, and people expect it to drop in price to $150. So the cost of the materials is probably around $100.
Technology costs fall over time. Nintendo can get advanced tech beyond whats inside of an Xbox 360 for cheap.
For $30-$80 more, the Wii U could easily have much, much more advanced hardware over PS3/360.