You are right about Nintendo making great games. But its the tech I'm most worried about here and competition from Apple.
Also you can't ignore against the iPad because more people will be using it as a multi purpose consumption device. It does look like the direction in which technology is generally heading. You cannot argue against the synergistic benefits of using one device and account to handle all your entertainment and gaming needs. Especially since this device is getting really powerful and the games are starting to get better. There's a new controller on the way, you can hook it up to the TV and the games are so cheap they are almost impulse purchases.
I used to think like that, but you gotta look at the big picture.
First, the base iPad costs a whopping $500. Are parents going to spend that kind of money just to get a toy for their kids, and a fragile one at that? A $250-300 Wii U sounds like a much better deal to me.
The multi-functionality of the iPad is great, but it's also one of its weaknesses. Picture this; a family has bought the Newest iPad and are having an evening dilemma:
- The kids want to play Angry Birds.
- Dad wants to browse GAF.
- Mom wants to draw stuff on Sketchbook.
Sure, a normal family will figure out a way to share the device, but in general you would need three Newest iPads for there to be no dilemma at all. On Wii U however, all three types of content could potentially be used at the same time;
- The kids play a non-graphically-intensive game on the TV with their Wiimotes.
- Dad posts on GAF on one tablet.
- Mom draws on the other.
This setup would cost you the price of a Wii U, one game and an extra tablet, which is much better than spending $1500 on three iPads. I may be wrong (and I definitely don't want to eat crow on this one), but Apple prides itself on standalone devices and are unlikely to implement a Wii U-like solution with multiple peripherals anytime soon.
Not to mention the Nintendo franchises that cannot be played anywhere else. There's also the fact that their platforms have a huge mindshare in Japan and are home to the Pokemon, Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter trifecta.
Anything could happen, but at this point I'm more worried for Microsoft and Sony, because they've concentrated most of their efforts on wooing the dudebros with shiny graphics instead of establishing an identity for their platforms.