Wii U Speculation Thread The Third: Casting Dreams in The Castle of Miyamoto

Actually if you were to assume a doubling of theoretical power each generation, it would take 5 years for the iPad to reach 1000Gflops. The problem is that Apple's A series SoCs are limited by one major factor: battery life. The improvement in power of the A5X over the A5 came at the expense of a 70% increase in power draw, which meant a 70% larger battery. Unless either battery technology becomes 30 times more efficient in the next 5 years (it won't), or the Gflops/watt achieved by mobile graphics chips improves by a similar measure (again, it won't), that same pace of improvement isn't going to last.

I came to literally almost post this word-for-word. Thank you.
The ipads are great pieces of tech and certainly cutting into handheld sales for all dedicated handheld manufacturers. But they aren't going to outpace our GPUs.

What Nintendo ends up putting in their Wii U is a completely different barrel of monkeys.
 
Indeed. But the tech is still different..... wanna see my new iPad with vents..... lots and lots of vents.

There are already iPad clones that have vents and run Windows..
ipad-windows-7-clone-cooling-vents.jpg
 
I came to literally almost post this word-for-word. Thank you.
The ipads are great pieces of tech and certainly cutting into handheld sales for all dedicated handheld manufacturers. But they aren't going to outpace our GPUs.

What Nintendo ends up putting in their Wii U is a completely different barrel of monkeys.

Right, but tablets aren't going to magically pass PCs, especially not with the battery tech we have.
Saying that the iPad is going to continue the leaps and bounds it has for any foreseeable future is foolish. It's going to level off very soon, in fact.

Indeed. But the tech is still different..... wanna see my new iPad with vents..... lots and lots of vents.

I agree with all the above but as a lot of us have been saying wrt Wii U and the "real next gen 720" that graphics aren't what it's all about. They need to hit a certain level of quality and then people may very well find the convenience worth more than any perceived bump by a dedicated console.

Consoles by nature will always be more powerful than tablets, and PC's will be more powerful than consoles, but does that matter too much when the lowest of those looks astonishing, is super convenient to carry around, has your Twitter, Email, Facebook Youtube and all your digital life at your fingertips? It also wouldn't surprise me if when these tablets becomes "true" gaming machines (We get a controller and gaming pushed more by the platform holders), that we get a power dock that we sit it in when at home.

I guess all I'm saying is look ahead 5 years from now when iPad 8 is looking like Wii U will be or some mid-high end PC does now. Then add in

- It has a controller
- It has 90% of all the games you want (GTAVII etc)
- It has your movies, music and digital life
- All the social media you need
- All the other apps your heart desires (Because it's easy to get into the dev program)
- And it's portable
- Has a solid, coherent online infrastructure for gameplay (Apple have yet to offer this)

I find it really, really hard to see how a large number of people won't just use that if they're not too interested in exclusive titles.

It's interesting times ahead. I'm not writing anyone off or espousing the end-of-gaming but jesus is there going to be some big upsets over the next 5-10 years.
 
Random thought: I need to buy a copy of Wind Waker, never finished the game (got stolen way back in summer 2003 by a punk who was staying with my brother, he and his girlfriend also stole our copy of Melee and Red Faction II grrrr) and I don't think I can hold out until the (possible) Wii U GC virtual console release which will take forever. Plus it'll be the perfect game to follow up with once I finish my LttP run. My copies of Sunshine and Prime have been sitting on my game library shelf for many years looking incomplete without their missing sibling. :(
 
Bg, you're too good at hiding info. I got nothing out of that to suggest you know something. The only conclusion I can make is if you post ANYTHING it must be true!





If Nintendo add USB3.0, they'll have to do it on all ports or it won't be able to be relied on because I guarantee people will be plugging them into the 2.0 ports if their are mixed ones.

OK, just thought about that and if Nintendo do a proprietary drive then they could customize the plug right? Does the spec allow for that?

Well my brain wasn't functioning properly when it came to cost when I was saying 1 USB 3.0 port as that would call for two controllers in the system. That's not going to happen. So it would be all of nothing.

And yeah I was content with keeping things that way, but the "PS4 is on par with current gen" article forced my hand since people seemed to start buying into that. I won't say that kind of change is impossible, but I would definitely say it's improbable. I said awhile back that the gap would be closer than some expect, but not THAT close.

Apparently only for NeoGAF Gold Members...Like AzaK I'll have to consider everything BG posts as gospel now, Portal Wii-U confirmed, friends.

LOL. I wouldn't go that far with it being "gospel". And I wouldn't mind seeing Portal on Wii U replicating my idea.
 
Random thought: I need to buy a copy of Wind Waker, never finished the game (got stolen way back in summer 2003 by a punk who was staying with my brother, he and his girlfriend also stole our copy of Melee and Red Faction II grrrr) and I don't think I can hold out until the (possible) Wii U GC virtual console release which will take forever. Plus it'll be a great game to follow up once I finish my LttP run. Plus, my copies of Sunshine and Prime have been sitting on my game library shelf for many years looking incomplete without their missing sibling. :(
So.. you never finished it? I am incredibly jealous. Such a superlative experience. Keep a hankie on hand for the ending.. that's all I'll say.

It's interesting times ahead. I'm not writing anyone off or espousing the end-of-gaming but jesus is there going to be some big upsets over the next 5-10 years.
I am absolutely convinced that unique content - and more specifically, quality IPs - is going to be a huge factor in determining who comes out of this transition alive and well.
 
I don't think Apple devices will have the devastating effect many foresee.
3DS was sent to die into a iOS dominated handheld world, yet it only now may be falling behind DS numbers. You know, that thing that broke all records.
Especially Nintendo has the kind of innovative out-of-box feature thinking that let's them live side by side with that market and tap into it.

What I now want are those iOS games on Nintendo systems, can't be too hard. Miku Flick come to me 3:
There will always be a place for dedicated gaming.
 
I don't think Apple devices will have the devastating effect many foresee.
3DS was sent to die into a iOS dominated handheld world, yet it only now may be falling behind DS numbers. You know, that thing that broke all records.
Especially Nintendo has the kind of innovative out-of-box feature thinking that let's them live side by side with that market and tap into it.

What I now want are those iOS games on Nintendo systems, can't be too hard. Miku Flick come to me 3:
There will always be a place for dedicated gaming.

No analyst will ever believe this for some damned reason. They got it in they're head that the majority of people wanted an Iphone/Android for games. I'm pretty sure the majority of people got them because of everything they can do and not just games. Epic is taking it too far as well.
 
So.. you never finished it? I am incredibly jealous. Such a superlative experience. Keep a hankie on hand for the ending.. that's all I'll say.

Nope, it's like a mysterious missing chapter from my Gamecube years, I never even got halfway through the game! It was also partly because I've always preferred Mario and Metroid series over Zelda and I was still finishing Prime at the time. Plus I play a lot of 2D shooters like Gradius, Do Don Pachi, ect. which also adds to my backlog. Otherwise I would not have allowed my brother to borrow it at the time (not that it was his fault of course, grrr).

edit: And is just me or did the nice tropical themes featured in both Sunshine and WW seem kinda intentional?
 
I am absolutely convinced that unique content - and more specifically, quality IPs - is going to be a huge factor in determining who comes out of this transition alive and well.

Absolutely. Humans love entertainment so whomever can deliver that in interesting and affordable ways will always have a place. I can't forsee the 100's of millions of enthusiast gamers who have Wiis, 360s and PS3s all of a sudden just moving to tablet/phone devices, but I can see market sizes shrinking and loss of some absolute numbers of customers along the way as other devices become "good enough".

I don't think Apple devices will have the devastating effect many foresee.
3DS was sent to die into a iOS dominated handheld world, yet it only now may be falling behind DS numbers. You know, that thing that broke all records.
Especially Nintendo has the kind of innovative out-of-box feature thinking that let's them live side by side with that market and tap into it.
What I now want are those iOS games on Nintendo systems, can't be too hard. Miku Flick come to me 3:
There will always be a place for dedicated gaming.

Thing is, before iOS the DS was the shiz. If you were into portable gaming that's what you used. Then iOS came along and people saw they could have other gaming experiences (Some identical to DS, some not) in their phones as well as their other social stuff. This probably had a small effect on some people giving up DS gaming and moving to their phone solely, but more importantly it probably took a lot of that untapped casual market that Nintendo was coveting with the DS.

Basically, we now have a new player on the scene (It happened when the XBox arrived, and it's happening again with Apple). Some of them have pretty distinct markets like iOS' casual dominance vs 360s enthusiast dominance (Although Kinect and the increasing power of iOS devices are blurring those lines a bit). They all now need to find their customers by creating new markets like Nintendo tries to do or taking ones from existing players in that space - and I'd warn anyone off trying to take on Apple :)
 
And sadly even then that still might not be enough.

True, but what it might end-up being is a case where a company doesn't have to outrun the bear - it just has to outrun its competitors.

If there are two consoles left at some point due to Console C exiting the industry, Console C's audience has to go somewhere.. right?

A portion of that Console C audience will swear-off all other consoles.
But another portion of that audience will move on to Competitor A.
And another portion will go to Competitor B.
Meanwhile, another portion of Console C's crowd will go to both remaining consoles.

So Consoles A and B seem to benefit from Console C being eaten by the bear.
 
Actually if you were to assume a doubling of theoretical power each generation, it would take 5 years for the iPad to reach 1000Gflops. The problem is that Apple's A series SoCs are limited by one major factor: battery life. The improvement in power of the A5X over the A5 came at the expense of a 70% increase in power draw, which meant a 70% larger battery. Unless either battery technology becomes 30 times more efficient in the next 5 years (it won't), or the Gflops/watt achieved by mobile graphics chips improves by a similar measure (again, it won't), that same pace of improvement isn't going to last.
This going off topic, but I had to reply to this. It's mostly because the A5X remained on the 45nm process. Chip manufacturers are working on 22/16/11/4nm processes right now. Nvidia said when they die shrunk the GT 630M from 40nm to 28nm, power consumption was reduced by nearly half. So we can expect that as they move to smaller processes - that power consumption will also reduce. That also leaves more room in the device for a larger battery and more capacity. There will also still be continuing improvements to battery technology.

If you read the tech columns. Alot of smart people said a retina display on the iPad 3 was impossible. The arguments were that the screen would draw too much power and the bigger GPU required to draw those pixels would also drain too much power for a battery of reasonable size. But they managed to engineer solutions to overcome those limitations. Going forwards we can continue to expect them to engineer around problems to deal with increased power draw of newer technology. That's what the R&D on mobile tech is all about.
 
DO NOT QUOTE THOSE GIFS, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, YOUR BROWSER WILL EXPLODE!

I had to make it in 2 parts, otherwise it would be way too big. Quality is bad enough as it is. (Note that I will remove them if they become a problem.)

Part 1:
inp3hF5kvEwBC.gif


Part 2:
iDuGpxq7OS44O.gif
 
And sadly even then that still might not be enough.
The truth is, whether GAF denies it or not, many people have a bias against anything Nintendo, whether it be "outdated hardware" or "outgrown IPs", they will find an absolute reason to hate their platform. My point is that even if they did have bleeding edge hardware it wouldn't guarantee them an audience with 3rd party publishers. It's the stigmata that they have to kill...
BY2K said:
Big Lebowski gif
I believe BY2K put it nicely without words.
 
DO NOT QUOTE THOSE GIFS, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, YOUR BROWSER WILL EXPLODE!

I had to make it in 2 parts, otherwise it would be way too big. Quality is bad enough as it is. (Note that I will remove them if they become a problem.)

Part 1:
http://i.minus.com/inp3hF5kvEwBC.gif
Part 2:
[IMG]http://i.minus.com/iDuGpxq7OS44O.gif[/QUOTE]
Amazing.
 
Hah BY2K, that's very sweet. Can't beat the Dude can you. Now turn Goodman into Ubermatik and we have something for eternity :{

Basically, we now have a new player on the scene (It happened when the XBox arrived, and it's happening again with Apple). Some of them have pretty distinct markets like iOS' casual dominance vs 360s enthusiast dominance (Although Kinect and the increasing power of iOS devices are blurring those lines a bit). They all now need to find their customers by creating new markets like Nintendo tries to do or taking ones from existing players in that space - and I'd warn anyone off trying to take on Apple :)

There is no dispute over that, it's pretty much a foursome now. For the time being they all seem different enough that there might be enough room for all to co-exist. From a Nintendo-fan perspective I'm more "worried" one of MS/Sony will fall, as long as they shoot for the same audience, yet they don't have a place to move because everything else is already occupied.

Hm, the thing about not taking on Apple is that Microsoft did exactly that. They muscled their way into the industry and it worked. It took two generations, a lot of funds and a bit of luck, but right now they almost look more solid than Sony. I would even feel confident enough to say that while only looking at the gaming divisions.
This together with the somewhat success of PSP might actually be the reason Sony is continuing to strongman into the handheld space. The results leave room to scratch one's head there, but it's being done.

By all means I don't want to be the guy telling Nintendo to face the Killer Rabbit Apple no worries, but i want to go on record saying it can be done.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcxKIJTb3Hg
And in 5 years, when Apple lies in shambles because Nintendo drank all their milkshakes, I shall look very smart!
 
This going off topic, but I had to reply to this. It's mostly because the A5X remained on the 45nm process. Chip manufacturers are working on 22/16/11/4nm processes right now. Nvidia said when they die shrunk the GT 630M from 40nm to 28nm, power consumption was reduced by nearly half. So we can expect that as they move to smaller processes - that power consumption will also reduce. That also leaves more room in the device for a larger battery and more capacity. There will also still be continuing improvements to battery technology.

If you read the tech columns. Alot of smart people said a retina display on the iPad 3 was impossible. The arguments were that the screen would draw too much power and the bigger GPU required to draw those pixels would also drain too much power for a battery of reasonable size. But they managed to engineer solutions to overcome those limitations. Going forwards we can continue to expect them to engineer around problems such the increased power draw of newer technology. That's what the R&D on mobile tech is all about.

I'm not saying that the iPad's graphical abilities won't improve, but that they won't see the kind of improvement that you seem to be expecting. In 2007, the ATI HD2000 series maxed out at 4.3 Gflops/watt (the HD2600XT). AMD's 2012 line (HD7000 series) maxes out at 16.5 Gflops/watt (the HD7970). That's a 3.9x improvement in efficiency in about 5 years, with the standard manufacturing processes of the day. Mobile chips may catch up a bit with their desktop counterparts, but there's no way they're going to see almost 10 times as fast an improvement in efficiency as their predecessors did.

As far as "managing to engineer solutions" goes with the iPad, the main engineering they did was to just stick a larger battery in there, and that's not something they can keep doing every year if they want the iPad to remain thin and affordable.
 
You are right about Nintendo making great games. But its the tech I'm most worried about here and competition from Apple.

Also you can't ignore against the iPad because more people will be using it as a multi purpose consumption device. It does look like the direction in which technology is generally heading. You cannot argue against the synergistic benefits of using one device and account to handle all your entertainment and gaming needs. Especially since this device is getting really powerful and the games are starting to get better. There's a new controller on the way, you can hook it up to the TV and the games are so cheap they are almost impulse purchases.

I used to think like that, but you gotta look at the big picture.

First, the base iPad costs a whopping $500. Are parents going to spend that kind of money just to get a toy for their kids, and a fragile one at that? A $250-300 Wii U sounds like a much better deal to me.

The multi-functionality of the iPad is great, but it's also one of its weaknesses. Picture this; a family has bought the Newest iPad and are having an evening dilemma:

- The kids want to play Angry Birds.
- Dad wants to browse GAF.
- Mom wants to draw stuff on Sketchbook.

Sure, a normal family will figure out a way to share the device, but in general you would need three Newest iPads for there to be no dilemma at all. On Wii U however, all three types of content could potentially be used at the same time;

- The kids play a non-graphically-intensive game on the TV with their Wiimotes.
- Dad posts on GAF on one tablet.
- Mom draws on the other.

This setup would cost you the price of a Wii U, one game and an extra tablet, which is much better than spending $1500 on three iPads. I may be wrong (and I definitely don't want to eat crow on this one), but Apple prides itself on standalone devices and are unlikely to implement a Wii U-like solution with multiple peripherals anytime soon.

Not to mention the Nintendo franchises that cannot be played anywhere else. There's also the fact that their platforms have a huge mindshare in Japan and are home to the Pokemon, Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter trifecta.

Anything could happen, but at this point I'm more worried for Microsoft and Sony, because they've concentrated most of their efforts on wooing the dudebros with shiny graphics instead of establishing an identity for their platforms.
 
Oh my, what big gif's you have....


If my kids ever ask for a 500 dollar tablet to play goddamn angry birds i'll lock them in a dark room with a Hitchcock movie.
"these birds angry enough for ya. mwahahahaha"

Ahem.
 
Who's that and what did I do wrong? :(

He was a personality on NeoGAF back in the early/mid-00s who tried his damndest to portray himself as someone who was "in the know" regarding behind the scene goings-on in the industry, someone who was friendly with gaming and media personalities. Kinda insufferable.
 
All of you shut up and lets discuss Zelda vs Jesus!

Power on. Title screen. Name entry. Start.

Jesus is on the scene from the very first seconds in The Legend of Zelda. The action opens with our hero, Link, standing alone in an empty canyon. It's the outset of his adventure – the beginning of his quest.

And he's almost entirely unequipped. Besides the cap on his head and the shirt on his back, this young would-be rescuer holds only one tool you'd traditionally associate with a hero.

A shield.

And on that shield, an emblem. A single decoration.

A cross.

Jesus' Cross.

The Legend of Zelda begins with this simple image – and it's a sign of things to come. A connection. A link between worlds that are inseparably intertwined.

But the collision of Christianity and Nintendo's fantasy world of Hyrule hasn't always been as easy to see as on that first game's first screen – so this book will exist to uncover those connections. To place them side-by-side.

To pit Zelda vs. Jesus.

Kickstart it!
 
True, but what it might end-up being is a case where a company doesn't have to outrun the bear - it just has to outrun its competitors.

If there are two consoles left at some point due to Console C exiting the industry, Console C's audience has to go somewhere.. right?

A portion of that Console C audience will swear-off all other consoles.
But another portion of that audience will move on to Competitor A.
And another portion will go to Competitor B.
Meanwhile, another portion of Console C's crowd will go to both remaining consoles.

So Consoles A and B seem to benefit from Console C being eaten by the bear.

That I agree with. To be clearer, I'm saying that they may come out "bruised and battered" instead of "alive and well" even with a good amount of unique content.

The truth is, whether GAF denies it or not, many people have a bias against anything Nintendo, whether it be "outdated hardware" or "outgrown IPs", they will find an absolute reason to hate their platform. My point is that even if they did have bleeding edge hardware it wouldn't guarantee them an audience with 3rd party publishers. It's the stigmata that they have to kill...

I see it the same way, but I don't see Nintendo being able to do anything about the label placed on them. The current group that's biased against Nintendo will more than likely stay that way no matter what. The best thing Nintendo can do IMO is establish a certain identity with the next generation of gamers and do as much as possible to combat the current naysayers trying to "pass on" their views to that same group as well.
 
I wonder what Ill do on E3. I might watch the MS + sony conferences on my computer and maybe the Nintendo one at my house with a friend.
 
I see it the same way, but I don't see Nintendo being able to do anything about the label placed on them. The current group that's biased against Nintendo will more than stay that way no matter what. The best thing Nintendo can do IMO is establish a certain identity with the next generation of gamers and do as much as possible to combat the current naysayers trying to "pass on" their views to that same group as well.
It's a tall order but I think it's doable. First they need to get the dudebro multiplats on their systems. Then they need a first-party franchise that appeals to that group. Finally, put out advertising targeting that group as well.
 
It's a tall order but I think it's doable. First they need to get the dudebro multiplats on their systems. Then they need a first-party franchise that appeals to that group. Finally, put out advertising targeting that group as well.

I will say that it is my belief that the Madden crowd is the first group to target. That would be a good foundation to build from. But they would have to have two controllers accessible for this to happen and at the same time sell the controller separately as well IMO.
 
- The kids play a non-graphically-intensive game on the TV with their Wiimotes.
- Dad posts on GAF on one tablet.
- Mom draws on the other.
I'd bet Nintendo won't allow multitasking like that. But if they do I'll post a pic on GAF of me playing Mario Wii U in a pink tutu. And no, I don't like pink tutus.

That I agree with. To be clearer, I'm saying that they may come out "bruised and battered" instead of "alive and well" even with a good amount of unique content.

I see it the same way, but I don't see Nintendo being able to do anything about the label placed on them. The current group that's biased against Nintendo will more than stay that way no matter what. The best thing Nintendo can do IMO is establish a certain identity with the next generation of gamers and do as much as possible to combat the current naysayers trying to "pass on" their views to that same group as well.

Yeah it will all depend on Nintendo's willingness to get those naysayers. Unfortunately they've backed themselves up against a wall even more (wrt this segment of the market) with the aesthetics of the Subscreen and the "modest" tech jump.

All I hope is that they fix their 3rd party problems to give us the broadest range of games possible, make absolutely gorgeous versions of their 1st party games, and maximise the potential of that Subscreen and the console's OS.

I will say that it is my belief that the Madden crowd is the first group to target. That would be a good foundation to build from. But they would have to have two controllers accessible for this to happen and at the same time sell the controller separately as well IMO.

Yeah this is a good place start to get that mainstream gamer into the console. It's would be immediately obvious how beneficial the subscreen is to the game.
 
I will say that it is my belief that the Madden crowd is the first group to target. That would be a good foundation to build from. But they would have to have two controllers accessible for this to happen and at the same time sell the controller separately as well IMO.

Yep, it's a no-brainer really. It's not like the tablets would need to display much either, just player names and a crude representation of the field.
 
That I agree with. To be clearer, I'm saying that they may come out "bruised and battered" instead of "alive and well" even with a good amount of unique content.

I see it the same way, but I don't see Nintendo being able to do anything about the label placed on them. The current group that's biased against Nintendo will more than stay that way no matter what. The best thing Nintendo can do IMO is establish a certain identity with the next generation of gamers and do as much as possible to combat the current naysayers trying to "pass on" their views to that same group as well.

Ahhh.. that I can agree with 120%.

I know that some of us Nintendo fanatics like to speak confidently about an industry crash, saying cocky things like, "bring it on!" and "I don't care - they'll {read: other companies} will get what's coming to them!" But no one would be getting through any crash or contraction or transition unscathed - including Nintendo. The survivors that emerge come out these events come out with changes.

As far as the label and bias on Nintendo.. another thing we agree-upon. The older ones who are already anti-Nintendo are most likely lost. Very few will come back.. unless Nintendo ends-up being the only game in town.

Nintendo has to work to keep its cred with its current fans, along with the ones that are currently growing-up with liking Nintendo.

Whenever I play the Wind Waker, and I get to a certain part where the Deku Tree says something like, "I have spread the seeds.. of the future," and I sometimes attach a parallel between the game's event and this exact topic. Those of us who grew-up on Nintendo in the 80s were the seeds of the future back then, and we're bearing fruit with our loyalty right now, buying Nintendo stuff for ourselves, our kids, etc.

Anecdotal: I know I'm working on my nieces and nephews; they know that they're getting something Nintendo-themed for birthdays and Christmas, and I get to witness them experiencing that same joy that I did when I was a little one so long ago. They're growing to be big Nintendo fiends already, and I couldn't be prouder. :)

Now, Nintendo is trying to plant another generation - and they're going to try harder to retain this bunch so that they don't lose as many fans as they did with the first generation. The cycle will continue..
 
Me too. But even though Luigi's Mansion 2 is coming to the 3DS, I wouldn't have mind if it were to be on the Wii U as well. Ooops. Was supposed to be a response to the other post. Sorry.
 
Since MS enter to console space, power of the system has been...
Xbox/GCN/PS2 generation:
1 MS
2 Nintendo
3 Sony

360/PS3/Wii generation:
1 Sony
2 MS
3 Nintendo

720/PS4/WiiU should be:
1 Nintendo
2 Sony
3 MS

Everyone has occupied a different spot at least once =P
 
Top Bottom