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Will Nintendo ABSOLUTELY OWN September? <all signs point to YES!>

Fularu

Banned
MetatronM said:
I said it before this thread got out of hand, and I'll say it again. Pokemon is the only thing Nintendo has going for it this month. That's their only money train for the month. Pikmin 2 is not going to sell to those who do not already subscribe to the gospel. Neither will Donkey Konga. And neither one of them will be huge sellers. They might do well, but they won't move systems by any stretch of the imagination and they won't be blockbusters either.

There's just TOO MUCH STUFF coming out on the other systems.

Star Ocean Till the End of Time
Final Fantasy XI: Chains of Promathia
Shin Megami Tensei: Nocturne
Phantom Brave
Street Fighter Anniversary Collection
Gungrave: Overdose
Burnout 3
Silent Hill 4: The Room
Gradius V
KATAMARI DAMASHI
Blood Will Tell
Monster Hunter
Guilty Gear X2 #Reload
ESPN NHL 2K5
NHL 2005
Silent Hill 4: The Room
Fable

All of that against Nintendo's 3 or 4 "big" titles? You've got to be kidding me. I mean, not all of those are going to sell very well (*cough*Gungrave*cough*) but there's just SOOOO much good shit. This is just common sense here.

So, in summary, HUGE month for the GBA, which should mean that Nintendo will have a good month overall, but GC buried back down in the console basement again.

None of those games are going to move systems.

Donkey Konga othh may sell to the N64 folk. There is not a single title here outside of the sports games that will sell more than either pikmin 2 or donkey konga, and it wouldn't be to hard seeing pokemon FRLG outselling all those titles combined if RuSa is any indication
 

Kefkaff

Banned
MetatronM said:
There's just TOO MUCH STUFF coming out on the other systems.

Shin Megami Tensei: Nocturne
Gungrave: Overdose
Gradius V
KATAMARI DAMASHI
Blood Will Tell
Guilty Gear X2 #Reload


These are big titles ?_?
 

Fularu

Banned
signet said:
I'm sure Street Fighter Anniversary Collection, Silent Hill 4: The Room, ESPN NHL 2K5, and NHL 2005 will all sell more then Pikmin 2 and Donkey Konga. Out side of nintendo fans both games will get little attention.

SF won't sell more than 30k in its lifetime, SH4 won't sell more than 150k in its lifetime if sh3 is any indication, espn has a fair chance to sell more than 200k units but don't take that for granted since hockey never sold much, same goes for nhl 2005
 

Meier

Member
signet said:
I'm sure Street Fighter Anniversary Collection, Silent Hill 4: The Room, ESPN NHL 2K5, and NHL 2005 will all sell more then Pikmin 2 and Donkey Konga. Out side of nintendo fans both games will get little attention.

Silent Hill 3 hasnt even done 100k units total in America. ESPN NHL may move more units than it typically would (50-75k) at its budget price point, but at $20 it will be entirely inconsequential. All that it will do is simply end up taking away some sales from the already paltry NHL 2005 for EA rather than bringing in many more considering the fact there simply arent many hockey fans in the US.

Not a single game in the NHL series for EA has sold 500k copies and in all likelihood, the combined totals of every version won't even move that many this year with the impending and likely strike doing nothing to help that. Street Fighter should consider itself lucky if it moves six-digit totals (and at its $30 price, would have to sell almost 2x the copies of either game to truly equal it in number).
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
SolidSnakex said:
Well he seems to be talking about sales, so Pikmin 2, Donkey Konga, Paper Mario 2, Mario Tennis, Mario Party 6 and MP2 are the only significant releases for the GC this year. None of those are really system sellers either since they're all catering to Nintendo's fanbase. That's really Nintendo's main problem this year, they don't have any system sellers.


Correction: Those are the "only" significant exclusives being released from now till the end of the year. Well, actually, you forgot Baten Kaitos. ;)

But anyways, that's seven VERY high quality exclusives in 3 or four months. Sure, they aren't system sellers, but let's be honest: when does a system seller come out in the middle of a console's lifetime? Every major system seller, the defining game for ANY console, has been released at launch time, or close to it. For the NES, it was Super Mario Bros. For Sega, it was Sonic. For the N64, it was Super Mario 64. For Xbox, that's Halo. For GameBoy, it's pokemon (ok, that's an exception, but it DID revive a dying game boy market.). For the Ps2, I guess it would be GTA. and for the Cube, it would be Smash Bros. Those are the ONLY true "system sellers" this generation. You get a few titles, such as Tales of Symphonia, that boost sales by 50k temporarily, but aside from the big launch titles, NOTHING has been a system seller.
 

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
Meier said:
I've already made it known I dont think the GC will have a huge month, but please -- you can't list titles like Phantom Brave, Shin Megami Tensei, FFXI: CoP, Gradius, Katamari Damacy, Gungrave, Blood Will Tell, etc. in comparison to Nintendo's big hitters sales wise. Not a single one of those games will crack 100k with the possible exception of CoP (which will do something like 200k total if it sells to every owner of FFXI in America during its lifetime, let alone September alone) in September and most will be lucky to do 40-50k. Expect 10k tops for Gungrave in particular.

The only games in that entire list with any shot of outselling Pikmin 2 or Donkey Konga, are Burnout 3 and Fable.
I'm pretty sure I said specifically that "some of these games won't be big sellers." You people need to read WHOLE posts for a change.

I was talking about the sheer quantity of quality, not just posting a list of big sellers (though there is a fair share of those on that list too).

That said, Star Ocean, FF XI: CoP, ESPN NHL, NHL 2005, Fable, Silent Hill 4, Burnout 3, and possibly Monster Hunter will all sell as well as if not better than Nintendo's 2 major GC releases. Some of them will do it easily. And I think some of you underestimate Phantom Brave, which has potential to put up 100k+ when all is said and done (obviously not in September alone).

The only real system mover on the list may be Fable, but that one game is still greater than Nintendo's none (again, not counting Pokemon).

EDIT: Also, part of the point I was making by including games that won't tear down the house on the sales charts is that while many of them won't do well individually, they have niche markets which they can sell to quite nicely. Phantom Brave will probably find a fairly healthy niche audience. GGXX# Reload will sell to a certain group of gamers. Gradius V will sell easily to the hardcore fanbase. Street Fighter Anniversary Collection will find a pretty willing audience amidst the bargain hunters, compilation shoppers, and classic game lovers, as well as the fighting fans. And so on. What does this have to do with Nintendo? Well, it means the market is pretty stuffed this month, and it's being stuffed with niche and quirky stuff. Pikmin 2 and Donkey Konga both SCREAM niche and quirky, and they're going to find themselves in a very crowded market. Sure, they'll sell instantly to the indoctrinated, but beyond that, they're going to be fighting for a relatively narrow percentage of the gaming populace, and they're going to be fighting for it against ALL of those other new releases all at once.
 

signet

Member
Meier said:
What the fuck does that have to do with your statement that Microsoft sells more Xbox games than Nintendo sells GameCube games?


I didn't say MS sells more games on the Xbox then Nintendo sells on the GC. I said MS's Xbox sells more games then Nintendo's Gamecube does.
 

AssMan

Banned
FACT: The game that's going to kick every companies line up is................................















Dragonball Z:Budokai 3, which actually doesn't look that bad now since they made look more like the show now.
 

Fularu

Banned
MetatronM said:
I'm pretty sure I said specifically that "some of these games won't be big sellers." You people need to read WHOLE posts for a change.

I was talking about the sheer quantity of quality, not just posting a list of big sellers (though there is a fair share of those on that list too).

That said, Star Ocean, FF XI: CoP, ESPN NHL, NHL 2005, Fable, Silent Hill 4, Burnout 3, and possibly Monster Hunter will all sell as well as if not better than Nintendo's 2 major GC releases. Some of them will do it easily. And I think some of you underestimate Phantom Brave, which has potential to put up 100k+ when all is said and done (obviously not in September alone).

The only real system mover on the list may be Fable, but that one game is still greater than Nintendo's none (again, not counting Pokemon).

EDIT: Also, part of the point I was making by including games that won't tear down the house on the sales charts is that while many of them won't do well individually, they have niche markets which they can sell to quite nicely. Phantom Brave will probably find a fairly healthy niche audience. GGXX# Reload will sell to a certain group of gamers. Gradius V will sell easily to the hardcore fanbase. Street Fighter Anniversary Collection will find a pretty willing audience amidst the bargain hunters, compilation shoppers, and classic game lovers, as well as the fighting fans. And so on. What does this have to do with Nintendo? Well, it means the market is pretty stuffed this month, and it's being stuffed with niche and quirky stuff. Pikmin 2 and Donkey Konga both SCREAM niche and quirky, and they're going to find themselves in a very crowded market. Sure, they'll sell instantly to the indoctrinated, but beyond that, they're going to be fighting for a relatively narrow percentage of the gaming populace, and they're going to be fighting for it against ALL of those other new releases all at once.

...

Fact is, sh4 won't sell more than pikmin 2, nor will star ocean or even fable.. Burnout 3 may sell if there is a real marketing punch behind it. I believe the inclusion of a nfsu2 demo in it will help.

espn nhl 2k5 and nhl2005 won't do 500k combined in their lifetime that's for sure, phnatom brave will be lucky to reach 100k when all is said and done judging bu disgaea's and lapucelle figures.

If for you a game that sells next to one million units in the us (pikmin 1) is a niche title then I wonder what games like ikaruga, puyo pop fever or gungrave are?

And you should remember, FFXI sold less than 200k copies in the us since febryary, do you really believe CoP will sell more than pikmin 2? Not a single game here, beside Donkey Konga will be a system seller and no one is saying that there's no quality titles on the ps2 or the xbox, but the fact is, none has the selling power of nintendo's brands.
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
signet said:
I didn't say MS sells more games on the Xbox then Nintendo sells on the GC. I said MS's Xbox sells more games then Nintendo's Gamecube does.
No you didn't. You may have thought that's what you were saying, but nobody else was talking about that.

You said:
Oh sorry I thought we were discussing the quality console release this month (pikmin 2 on GC and a rehash of Pokemon on the GBA yawn).

Well in any case MS is sure to own September, they make much more money than Nintendo.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You knew no one was talking about indivisual overall console sales. When called on it you claimed "In game sales."

How on earth, would anybody assume you meant "I didn't say MS sells more games on the Xbox then Nintendo sells on the GC. I said MS's Xbox sells more games then Nintendo's Gamecube does."
 

AniHawk

Member
Pikmin 2 and Donkey Konga both SCREAM niche and quirky, and they're going to find themselves in a very crowded market.

Judging by its success in Japan, and looking at how well the first one has done in the United States, I wouldn't doubt if Pikmin 2 comes close to matching the first one's sales (about 500k-600k or so by January 2006). Nintendo also is marketing the game with a clever ad, and while it might not be all that attention grabbing, it's funny, and that's what most people like to see out of commercials. Plus what's going on in movie theaters, I believe Nintendo may pick up a couple more people for the ride. However, I sincerely doubt it will be a system seller. I just don't think Pikmin 2 will be squeezed out of the sales race- I think it will be one to take the already dimmed spotlight from other games like Katmari Damacy (though I heard it's going to be $20 so who knows) and Under the Skin.

Now, Donkey Konga... It's a fun game... but the box is going to be huge. Nintendo wont be shipping a lot to stores, and it's releasing at the very end of the month. On the plus side, it's about 2 weeks before any other major release (Paper Mario 2), on the negative side, it will need lots of word of mouth to become a system seller everyone is hoping for. I think that the DK franchise will be able to push it past what Taiko may do, but I see the game hitting about what Zelda: FSA and Kirby Air Ride did.

And on a side note: Nintendo's pretty much killed their GBA lineup except for FiLe for the holidays. Nintendo better hope their DS lineup will be kickass, and the system is priced at the most $149.99 like they were aiming for, or this will have been a very stupid move.
 
GaimeGuy said:
Correction: Those are the "only" significant exclusives being released from now till the end of the year. Well, actually, you forgot Baten Kaitos. ;)

But anyways, that's seven VERY high quality exclusives in 3 or four months. Sure, they aren't system sellers, but let's be honest: when does a system seller come out in the middle of a console's lifetime? Every major system seller, the defining game for ANY console, has been released at launch time, or close to it. For the NES, it was Super Mario Bros. For Sega, it was Sonic. For the N64, it was Super Mario 64. For Xbox, that's Halo. For GameBoy, it's pokemon (ok, that's an exception, but it DID revive a dying game boy market.). For the Ps2, I guess it would be GTA. and for the Cube, it would be Smash Bros. Those are the ONLY true "system sellers" this generation. You get a few titles, such as Tales of Symphonia, that boost sales by 50k temporarily, but aside from the big launch titles, NOTHING has been a system seller.

I said significant, Baten Kaitos is in no way a significant release when it comes to sales.

It's true that you don't get any big system sellers in the middle of a consoles lifetime, you still get some games every now and then that'll boost a systems sales. Vice City for example was released and gave the PS2 it's biggest holiday season ever. GTA, MGS3, and GT4 will all give the PS2 a big sales boost for Christmas as will HALO 2 and Fable for the Xbox. What does the GC really have to do anything like that?

Tales also didn't give the GC a boost in the US (although it did in Japan). The GC actually had it's worst month in a long time when Tales was released. RE4 really can't come soon enough for Nintendo.
 

AniHawk

Member
SolidSnakex said:
I said significant, Baten Kaitos is in no way a significant release when it comes to sales.

It's true that you don't get any big system sellers in the middle of a consoles lifetime, you still get some games every now and then that'll boost a systems sales. Vice City for example was released and gave the PS2 it's biggest holiday season ever. GTA, MGS3, and GT4 will all give the PS2 a big sales boost for Christmas as will HALO 2 and Fable for the Xbox. What does the GC really have to do anything like that?

Tales also didn't give the GC a boost in the US (although it did in Japan). The GC actually had it's worst month in a long time when Tales was released. RE4 really can't come soon enough for Nintendo.

Resident Evil 4 will not be a system seller. I'd be happy to be proved wrong, but I think Nintendo's last chance for a system seller is set for next year's holiday season, if you know what I mean.
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
SolidSnakex said:
I said significant, Baten Kaitos is in no way a significant release when it comes to sales.

It's true that you don't get any big system sellers in the middle of a consoles lifetime, you still get some games every now and then that'll boost a systems sales. Vice City for example was released and gave the PS2 it's biggest holiday season ever. GTA, MGS3, and GT4 will all give the PS2 a big sales boost for Christmas as will HALO 2 and Fable for the Xbox. What does the GC really have to do anything like that?
Significant????

No one has damn clue what's going to be significant. We can look at past records and guess, that's all; and GAF has been horrible at it in the past:

Everyone thought PGR2 was going repeat the first game's success. No one expected NFSU to do half of what it did. Most people underestimated MKDD.

That doesn't even to begin to demonstrate how wrong everybody was last year.


And for love of me, why are people mentioning Fable in the same context as GTA, GT4, and Halo2? MGS3, for that matter, too?
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
AssMan said:
So people are dismissing Budokai 3? I predict close to 2 million copies for the holiday season.
The first game sold sickeningly well, but what about the second game?
 
"nd for love of me, why are people mentioning Fable in the same context as GTA, GT4, and Halo2? MGS3, for that matter, too?"

Because it's going to help sell systems. People have been looking forward to Fable since it went by the name Project Ego. Will it pushes as many as those other games? Probably on, but it'll still push systems. As for MGS3, any series that can consistnatly sell 5million units worldwide deserves a mention when it comes to sales.
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
SolidSnakex said:
"nd for love of me, why are people mentioning Fable in the same context as GTA, GT4, and Halo2? MGS3, for that matter, too?"

Because it's going to help sell systems. People have been looking forward to Fable since it went by the name Project Ego. Will it pushes as many as those other games? Probably on, but it'll still push systems. As for MGS3, any series that can consistnatly sell 5million units worldwide deserves a mention when it comes to sales.
Well, if you going to go by people "looking forward to it," then you have no reason to then dismiss Baten Kiatos. That game has also had a fairly decent following since it was first unvieled.
 

Li Mu Bai

Banned
Where are the temp. bans for trolling? This thread is rank with them. So Fable's going to move systems is it? Much like Ninja Gaiden & KOTOR did, correct? Pikmin 2 is going to outsell everything perhaps BO3 & Fable for the month. And BO3 is across multiple systems no less, none of these titles are proclaimed "system sellers or movers." In the long term, I see Pikmin 2 outselling Fable. DK will record the highest selling rhythm game sales in NA, (due to franchise recognition) but putting up phenomenal numbers? I'm skeptical.
 

segasonic

Member
Fularu said:
There is not a single title here outside of the sports games that will sell more than either pikmin 2 or donkey konga
laughing.jpg
 

Fularu

Banned
segasonic said:

well if SO2, FFXI, BO2, SH3 or other second party MS games did not break 500k, I don't see why they'd do it now.

Pikmin 2 wil easily sell more than 500k in the US, and bk should put similar numbers than FSA at the very least. so, what other september title is likely to do more than 500 and 250k in its lifetime? I'm talking specific plateforms, don't start combining them for BO3 and sports games
 

DarienA

The black man everyone at Activision can agree on
Nintendo fans... forever optimistic... I like that kind of long term dedication.
 

segasonic

Member
Both Fable and Burnout 3 PS2 will easily outsell Pikmin 2

I don't think Pikmin 2 will sell as much as the first one, which was released shortly after launch when there weren't any other new Nintendo games...
 

DarienA

The black man everyone at Activision can agree on
Semjaza Azazel said:
Considering the sales of the original Pikmin compared to the other Burnout titles, why would that suddenly change?

...possibly the EA factor... will they promote it? Will they have commercials? The EA logo at the end of a commercial goes a long way towards people at least taking a look at a title.
 

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
Fularu said:
...

Fact is, sh4 won't sell more than pikmin 2, nor will star ocean or even fable.. Burnout 3 may sell if there is a real marketing punch behind it. I believe the inclusion of a nfsu2 demo in it will help.

espn nhl 2k5 and nhl2005 won't do 500k combined in their lifetime that's for sure, phnatom brave will be lucky to reach 100k when all is said and done judging bu disgaea's and lapucelle figures.

If for you a game that sells next to one million units in the us (pikmin 1) is a niche title then I wonder what games like ikaruga, puyo pop fever or gungrave are?

And you should remember, FFXI sold less than 200k copies in the us since febryary, do you really believe CoP will sell more than pikmin 2? Not a single game here, beside Donkey Konga will be a system seller and no one is saying that there's no quality titles on the ps2 or the xbox, but the fact is, none has the selling power of nintendo's brands.
First, if you don't think Square Enix's big RPG release for the year is going to sell very well, then you are somewhat delusional.

Second, I think the chances of Pikmin 2 selling as well as Pikmin 1 are pretty damn slim. Pikmin 1 had the HUGE advantage of being more or less a launch title and was presented as one of Nintendo's major early selling points. In this current market climate, though, with the number of games currently on the market, and the types of games that have come to dominate the charts, I think the chances of Pikmin 2 selling a million copies are very slim indeed. I'd predict somewhere more like 500-750k, and I feel like those are pretty generous numbers.

You also completely missed my point about it not being about any one individual game on that list vs. Pikmin and Donkey Konga but ALL of them. You guys are picking them apart one by one and saying "this one will do this much" and "that one will do that much" and showing how Pikmin and DK will out do them one by one. By that's not the way the market works. They've got to deal with ALL of these games ALL AT ONCE, and THAT is a daunting task, and that is why, by themselves, they're not going to do too much to help the Gamecube's cause this month.

So you guys can keep pulling games off the list and saying "oh that won't do well" or "oh Pikmin 2 will easily outdo that" all you want, because you won't be refuting my actual point at all.


EDIT: I probably shouldn't have included SH4 among the titles that will come in around the same ballpark as Pikmin 2, though. And I'll take your point about FF XI:CoP too. That will probably come in around the same ballpark as Donkey Konga instead of Pikmin 2.
 

Li Mu Bai

Banned
Musashi Wins! said:
Well, just go by pre-orders or something then. Because I guarantee you Fable has 10x the amount Baiten does.

That means nothing. I wonder how many pre-orders MK:DD had? It outsold WW (& at a faster pace as well) which had the most pre-orders up until that point in time. So using pre-orders as some sort of predictive index is by no means an accurate barometer regarding sales success, unless their extremely excessive. (Halo 2 for ex.)
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
MetatronM said:
Second, I think the chances of Pikmin 2 selling as well as Pikmin 1 are pretty damn slim. Pikmin 1 had the HUGE advantage of being more or less a launch title and was presented as one of Nintendo's major early selling points. In this current market climate, though, with the number of games currently on the market, and the types of games that have come to dominate the charts, I think the chances of Pikmin 2 selling a million copies are very slim indeed. I'd predict somewhere more like 500-750k, and I feel like those are pretty generous numbers.
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! :D


I'm not laughing at your prediction... I just know something you don't... :p
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
segasonic said:
Wait, did he say Donkey Konga will be a system seller?

A quirky music game that costs $85?


More delusional than I thought.
If you nothing about the game, why bash it?
 
segasonic said:
Multiplayer

That's not required. I could say a PS2 controller costs $25 and that any game you wanted to play multi would be $75.

It doesn't really matter if other games use it or not in that context.
 

DarienA

The black man everyone at Activision can agree on
Semjaza Azazel said:
It's $50 with a pair of bongos included. $85?

Are you sure it includes the bongo's? It's hard to tell by reading the description of the game at Ebgames and Gamestop.
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
DarienA said:
Are you sure it includes the bongo's? It's hard to tell by reading the description of the game at Ebgames and Gamestop.
It does. Places like Wal-mart have advertised it saying specifically so. Nintendo's press release about the game says so, too.
 

DarienA

The black man everyone at Activision can agree on
JJConrad said:
It does. Places like Wal-mart have advertised it saying specifically so. Nintendo's press release about the game says so, too.

That's a damn good deal then.
 

Shoryuken

Member
MetatronM said:
First, if you don't think Square Enix's big RPG release for the year is going to sell very well, then you are somewhat delusional.



Square has only had 3 big sellers ( over 500,000 copies) in NA this generation, Final Fantasy X, Final Fantasy X-2, and Kingdom Hearts. The main reason Square's big releases for each year have done well is because they've had a big brand name behind each of them (Final Fantasy and Disney + Final Fantasy). Square's other 7 releases this generation have all done either average or very poor. I think Star Ocean's sales are going to fall into the average category.
 

ge-man

Member
Personally, I think Pikmin 2 and DK will do very well. The problem is that, like almost every other big title for Nintendo this generation, console numbers will see only a slight effect. These games will be big with the Nintendo faithful and few others.

There are only two games that I see being system sellers for the GC--RE4 and the new Zelda. And those will be coming in 2005 when it is pretty much too late to change things.
 

jarrod

Banned
signet said:
I didn't say MS sells more games on the Xbox then Nintendo sells on the GC. I said MS's Xbox sells more games then Nintendo's Gamecube does.
Actually, that's not true either. Slightly more GC games have been sold so far (despite selling slightly less consoles), but it's pretty close overall. Nintendo also makes much more revenue in gaming than MS, in fact they actually make a profit in the industry.


SolidSnakex said:
"While 500k sounds really optimistic, you also have to remeber this is a Donkey Kong game."

I wouldn't doubt it could do 500k if it were a Donkey Kong game and not a game using Donkey Kong to sell it. It's possible that it'll do that amount over it's lifetime, but in 4 months? I don't think so.
A DK platformer would be a million seller easy (as the GBA ports prove). Donkey Kong will still put up amazing numbers though (I'm guessing 300k-ish), it really isn't comparable to something like DDR which usually moves 40-60k.
 
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