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[JJConrad]

Personally, I think Pikmin 2 and DK will do very well. The problem is that, like almost every other big title for Nintendo this generation, console numbers will see only a slight effect. These games will be big with the Nintendo faithful and few others.

There are only two games that I see being system sellers for the GC--RE4 and the new Zelda. And those will be coming in 2005 when it is pretty much too late to change things.

There are very few games that could be called true system sellers. It is ridiculous to say "These games will be big with the Nintendo faithful and few others," because we have no clue as to who actually buys Nintendo's games. I could see people from all walks of life enjoying either of these games.


If I were to guess sales:

Pikmin 2 will end around 400k by the end of the year and DK at about 350k.

The reason I laughed at MetatronM was because he said that Pikmin 2 wouldn't sell as well as the first, but then guessed 500-750k. He must not have known that the first game has only sold 646,322 in the US... right smack-dab in the middle of his guess. I agree that the game won't do as well (even though it deserves to).

DK will start slowly, but will have some decent legs. The recieption to the game in kiosks has been phenominal with passer-byes. Some of that will result in word-of-mouth and decent sales. I can see the game passing the DDR games in sales simply on the Nintendo and DK brand.


Also, Paper Mario 2 will outsell Fable, BK and SO3.

 

[FightyF]

Nintendo is going to make a lot of money, that I don't doubt.

I just think their lineup sucks for most gamers.

 

[wipeout364]

Anyone predicting this has no place in sales discussion threads because it shows they have absolutely no clue what they're talking about. Saying this is akin to predicting Spider-Man 2 would have a poor summer.

I have no clue want you are talking about, but I think you are bordering on fanaticism. Please explain how Nintendo DS is equivalent to Spiderman 2.

 

[Dr.Guru of Peru]

I swear, these forums are so XBOT >8^(

 

[Li Mu Bai]

I swear, these forums are so XBOT >8^(

You're just now noticing that Dr.? It's funny to see the drones do damage control when a touted game both underscores with the gaming-media & underperforms sales-wise. Regardless, they feel only their system of choice can succeed past all others, well excluding the PS2, & even some delusional believers thought that the Box would outsell the PS2 for the remainder of the year after the price drop. LOL.

 

[TekunoRobby]

Please explain how Nintendo DS is equivalent to Spiderman 2.

Both have a touchscreen, I mean jesus how can you not see that?

 

[Meier]

I have no clue want you are talking about, but I think you are bordering on fanaticism. Please explain how Nintendo DS is equivalent to Spiderman 2.

Their monstrous success was/is gauranteed due to the original product's lead-in audience. That should have been pretty clear.

 

[Li Mu Bai]

There are very few games that could be called true system sellers. It is ridiculous to say "These games will be big with the Nintendo faithful and few others," because we have no clue as to who actually buys Nintendo's games. I could see people from all walks of life enjoying either of these games.


If I were to guess sales:

Pikmin 2 will end around 400k by the end of the year and DK at about 350k.

The reason I laughed at MetatronM was because he said that Pikmin 2 wouldn't sell as well as the first, but then guessed 500-750k. He must not have known that the first game has only sold 646,322 in the US... right smack-dab in the middle of his guess. I agree that the game won't do as well (even though it deserves to).

DK will start slowly, but will have some decent legs. The recieption to the game in kiosks has been phenominal with passer-byes. Some of that will result in word-of-mouth and decent sales. I can see the game passing the DDR games in sales simply on the Nintendo and DK brand.


Also, Paper Mario 2 will outsell Fable, BK and SO3.

I agree with much of your post JJ, but 400k for Pikmin 2 is a lowball estimate IMO. The GC userbase is larger now, as is the Pikmin fanbase following despite how "niche" the game is viewed. FF:CC will be at 400k by year's end, & I would argue that Pikmin is more popular than this Final Fantasy spinoff that required pre-requisite GBA hw to fully enjoy. (as much as I loved the multi-player aspect, & the game in general) Paper Mario 2 will sell phenomenally well, I also believe that many are underestimating BK's potential, especially in light of TOS's recent success. (I still can't find it) Nobody's mentioning Mario:Tennis as a heavy hitter, this is also a mistake.

 

[JJConrad]

but 400k for Pikmin 2 is a lowball estimate IMO.

Thank Anihawk for that. Pikmin 2 does have number of things going for it, over the original (better name recognition, longer selling window, overall better game), but it has a few things against it. I could go either way.

 

[Scrow]

I dunno about Nintendo owning September in general, but they're certainly owning me for the Christmas holidays. Before year's end I will buy:

Pikmin 2
Metroid Prime 2
Paper Mario 2
Tales of Symphonia
Metroid: Zero Mission
Zelda: Minish Cap

Keep in mind that I live in Australia, so release dates are different for a few games (MZM has being out for ages, I just haven't bought it yet).

My bank account is going to hurt so bad.

 

[Dr.Guru of Peru]

You're just now noticing that Dr.? It's funny to see the drones do damage control when a touted game both underscores with the gaming-media & underperforms sales-wise. Regardless, they feel only their system of choice can succeed past all others, well excluding the PS2, & even some delusional believers thought that the Box would outsell the PS2 for the remainder of the year after the price drop. LOL.

Actually, it was a joke...

In reference to yesterday's "This forum is so Nbot" comment in the Fable discussion.

 

[AniHawk]

I dunno about Nintendo owning September in general, but they're certainly owning me for the Christmas holidays. Before year's end I will buy:

Pikmin 2
Metroid Prime 2
Paper Mario 2
Tales of Symphonia
Metroid: Zero Mission
Zelda: Minish Cap

Keep in mind that I live in Australia, so release dates are different for a few games (MZM has being out for ages, I just haven't bought it yet).

My bank account is going to hurt so bad.

I think Minish Cap was moved to January or February again.

 

[jarrod]

I think Minish Cap was moved to January or February again.

Not in PAL regions, it's still 2004. Us americans get it last this time.

 

[Stuggernaut]

Since I could care less either way...

I hope Nintendo owns the rest of the year just to bother all you people ;P

 

[CrimsonSkies]

September = Burnout 3, Star Wars: Battlefront, Kingdom Under Fire, Guilty Gear X2: Reload, DoA Ultimate (if it comes out), Sly 2, Tiger Woods, Rome Total War, and Fable for me.

Renting half and buying half.

Pretty loaded for me w/o a Cube.

 

[AniHawk]

Not in PAL regions, it's still 2004. Us americans get it last this time.

Guess they didn't want it to compete with the DS or something. I don't see any other reason..

 

[disabledHeliocentric]

September = Burnout 3, Star Wars: Battlefront, Kingdom Under Fire, Guilty Gear X2: Reload, DoA Ultimate (if it comes out), Sly 2, Tiger Woods, Rome Total War, and Fable for me.

Renting half and buying half.

Pretty loaded for me w/o a Cube.

Funny, I could practically live without my xbox with games like Paper Mario 2, Pikmin 2, Sly 2, Gradius V. That's just me. Enjoy Fable.

 

[AniHawk]

Personally, I think Pikmin 2 and DK will do very well. The problem is that, like almost every other big title for Nintendo this generation, console numbers will see only a slight effect. These games will be big with the Nintendo faithful and few others.

There are only two games that I see being system sellers for the GC--RE4 and the new Zelda. And those will be coming in 2005 when it is pretty much too late to change things.

Unless Zelda can be more of a Donkey Kong Country than a Majora's Mask.

 

[AniHawk]

Thank Anihawk for that. Pikmin 2 does have number of things going for it, over the original (better name recognition, longer selling window, overall better game), but it has a few things against it. I could go either way.

What? What did I do?

 

[evilromero]

Pikmin 2 vs :

Star Ocean Till the End of Time
Phantom Brave
Street Fighter Anniversary Collection
Gungrave: Overdose (only $14.99)
Silent Hill 4: The Room
Burnout 3: Takedown
Gradius V
Sly 2: Band of Thieves
Demon Stone
Star Wars Battlefront
KATAMARI DAMASHI
Blood Will Tell
Monster Hunter


or

Guilty Gear X2 #Reload
Silent Hill 4: The Room
Burnout 3: Takedown
Syberia II
Yager
Fable
Kingdom Under Fire: The Crusaders
Star Wars Battlefront
SVC Chaos: SNK vs. Capcom

just to name a few.

Sorry but the only thing that is debatable is if Sony or Microsoft owns September. Nintendo is dead last again.

As good as Katamari is, Pikmin 2 still owns all those games.

 

[Li Mu Bai]

What? What did I do?

You're usually quite conservative on your estimates, this may have swayed JJ's thinking.

 

[Alcibiades]

6. SP Price Drop. Enough said with just that, but I'll elaborate. A $79.99 price point means GBA will almost certainly run all over PS2 and XBox for the month of September, as a flurry of new adopters buys the system. Combined with the Pokemon FiLe hype, this could get downright nasty at retail, and it's not even November yet. Plus overall exposure to the Nintendo name will absolutely help as people notice a GCN Metroid bundle, Pokemon Colosseum exlclusive to GCN, and the new title everyone's talking about, Pikmin 2.

7. WWE Day of Reckoning is surprisingly a solid wrestling title with legends (including Brett Hart) in it. It's got an absolutely awesome commercial and is the first wrestling game to be released this year. As long as they run that one-minute commercial during the WWE commercial breaks, this will surely be a solid hit compared to the previous WWE outings on GCN. The only drawback that's presented to this title is the fact that in general, professional wrestling isn't as popular. I honestly expected reviews in the 6-7 range maybe, but it's getting 8+

8. The new Wendy's sweepstakes is going to just help exposure in general:
http://www.n-philes.com/index.php?Id=160
http://www.wendysfamilysweeps.com/
I know I'd like to win a trip like that (too bad I have no access to a Wendy's :/), but I'm sure there are just people in general that might look with interest to see if they have one a GCN or other prize. The Nintendo brandname is going to be in some people's minds thanks to this. The contest is obviously going to target hardcore Nintendo fans (that would care to visit their headquarters) and casuals (that wouldn't mind winning a free system or game)


OK, if there was every any doubt before, I don't see how there could be any now. Nintendo is going to kick off the Christmas season with a BANG! Hopefully, their success in September will encourage retailers to order enough product so that they don't run out in early December like they did last year (sold out GCN, Mario Kart, and Mario Party 5)...

 

[Broshnat]

ok, ok... this thread is funny !!


Pikmin 2 will sell around 250k in September alone. It should outsell everything but Madden and Burnout 3. I can also see it boosting GC sales a bit, as well as the Metroid Prime bundle, maybe 150k or so. I think it will easily surpass the original, and could hit 600k by the end of the year without much trouble.

Donkey Konga will also do some good numbers, probably only about 80-100k at the end of September, but it should hold well over the holiday season. 450k by the end of the year is not unreasonable I think.

Pokemon LG / FR will do around 700k combined, and the GBA will do some crazy numbers with the price drop as well (500k +)

And with continued strong sales of the older titles (especially player's choice etc), it should be a good September for Nintendo.

 

[Sho Nuff]

6. SP Price Drop.
...
(crap deleted)

Holy shit, you seriously do work for Nintendo, don't you? Are you from Golin/Harris or something?

edit: Wendy's promotions! For chrissakes, this guy is talking about WENDY'S PROMOTIONS!

 

[AniHawk]

ok, ok... this thread is funny !!


Pikmin 2 will sell around 250k in September alone. It should outsell everything but Madden and Burnout 3. I can also see it boosting GC sales a bit, as well as the Metroid Prime bundle, maybe 150k or so. I think it will easily surpass the original, and could hit 600k by the end of the year without much trouble.

Donkey Konga will also do some good numbers, probably only about 80-100k at the end of September, but it should hold well over the holiday season. 450k by the end of the year is not unreasonable I think.

DKonga will only be available for less than a week during September. It's being released at the very end of the month and Nintendo isn't shipping many copies of the game.

 

[Broshnat]

I think 80k is a reasonable estimate...

 

[AniHawk]

I think 80k is a reasonable estimate...

...It's releasing the 27th of September.

 

[Alcibiades]

...It's releasing the 27th of September.

pre-orders are healthy.

100,000 isn't out of the question, but 80,000 is more safe...

 

[Broshnat]

...It's releasing the 27th of September.

It will perform in a similar manor to F-Zero GX and Mario Golf, both were released at the end of the month and did something like 60k month 1 and about the same again month 2. I can see DK doing about 80k in Sept, 110k in Oct, and another 200k or so in Nov / Dec...

 

[AniHawk]

pre-orders are healthy.

Maybe, but that doesn't mean jack if Nintendo doesn't ship enough.

 

[Alcibiades]

Maybe, but that doesn't mean jack if Nintendo doesn't ship enough.

 

[JackFrost2012]

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Wendy's .... promotions .... can't .... breathe ...

I dunno which is funnier, the idea that efralope is Golin/Harris pretending to be a regular poster, or the idea that he's just a fan who's gone over the deep end into the empty swimming pool.

 

[snapty00]

Wow, I thought you guys were kidding about the Wendy's promotions, and then I scroll up and see that he's really talking about that. :O

 

[Sho Nuff]

He's kind of like a corporate version of Gaghiddy.

 

[Baron Aloha]

Didn't Nintendo sell like 400,000 GBASPs in July? With the price cut and the holiday season starting to ramp up I don't think that 575,000 - 600,000 for September is out of the question. They will sell 500,000 SPs in September just because of the price cut alone. Then of course they have a "new" Pokemon coming out the same month (which will easily rack up a million units in no time). Heck 600,000 might be low-balling it.

Sorry but as much as it pains me to do this (no offense Ef), I'm going to have to agree with Efralope. The GBA alone will allow Nintendo to own September. I wish people would just shut up and put their biases aside and admit it. Some of you guys just refuse to give Nintendo the least bit of credit. It's like you would rather die than to admit that for just one month Nintendo will be on top of things.

 

[JackFrost2012]

I wish people would just shut up and put their biases aside and admit it. Some of you guys just refuse to give Nintendo the least bit of credit.

says the man with the Mario avatar!

 

[Baron Aloha]

says the man with the Mario avatar!

OMG I HAVE A MARIO AVATAR THEREFORE I AM A NINTENDO FANBOY OMG!!!

I just like the artwork. When something better comes along I'll change it. Doesn't matter what it is.

 

[Broshnat]

says the man with the Mario avatar!

Says the man with the Pikachu avatar!

 

[WasabiKing]

...possibly the EA factor... will they promote it? Will they have commercials? The EA logo at the end of a commercial goes a long way towards people at least taking a look at a title.

It's getting to the point where they'll probably throw the logo on first, then run the ad... then play the logo again... BTW, don't like the BurnOut 3 shopping cart ad...

EDIT: if Jack Frost's kid drew that, he is immune from any avatar taunting

 

[signet]

I tried to pick up Pikmin today, to bad my store only got 3 of them and they were for preorders. I just got Phantom Brave, Star Ocean and Dynsaty Warriors 4 Empires.

 

[Alex]

September is a good month for everyone, espically for me personally. Although I'm having a heck of a time sorting out what exactly I'm going to buy...

 

[Alcibiades]

you bet 600,000 is lowballing it for SP sales

1 million or shame.

I bet one million for GCN + SP sales easily, but probably SP alone.

 

[Xenon]

 

[Subitai]

SP and Pokemon will rule Sept.

After that, it's anyone's call. A lot of new console owners are getting budget titles rather than the latest hot releases.

Pikmin 2 isn't going to match it's predecessor overall for a while if at all, and certainly not before the end of the year let alone this September. I'd say around 25% of Pikmin's sales didn't come until it was $29.99 - maybe more like 33% if I could go back and check.

There's still going to be a lot of Madden, NCAA, and ESPN sales clogging the charts.

I also think SW: Battlefront could be real big if Pandemic's game gets good marketing and reviews.

Fable, will have a great 1st month, but I don't think it will quite have the legs KotOR had. Although, it is at the very least a solid MS title, so it will get ~10-15k after the holidays like Pikmin 2. So for the fanboy contest between those titles, the winner will be decided before Christmas because neither title will be in a position to close the gap afterwards.

 

[FightyF]

Plus, I don't know what GC owners are going to do because they won't have The Greatest Sports Game Ever Created(tm) on their console.

So IMO to say that they will rule, and considering that both other consoles have this game yet the GC doesn't, is a stretch to me. Again, Nintendo will make a lot of money. But GC owners will remain deprived of great games such as the one I just mentioned.

 

[JackFrost2012]

EDIT: if Jack Frost's kid drew that, he is immune from any avatar taunting

It was actually drawn for me by a second-grader with degenerative bone disease at the hospital where I taught, as a going-away present for when I stopped doing the JET program.

Just to tug at your heartstrings the weeist bit.

 

[Chrono]

Plus, I don't know what GC owners are going to do because they won't have The Greatest Sports Game Ever Created(tm) on their console.

So IMO to say that they will rule, and considering that both other consoles have this game yet the GC doesn't, is a stretch to me. Again, Nintendo will make a lot of money. But GC owners will remain deprived of great games such as the one I just mentioned.

I'm a Gamecube owner and I

1) Don't care for sports games...

2) Own a PS2 and plan on getting an xbox this fall so I'll be anything but "deprived" of great games.

 

[Li Mu Bai]

Plus, I don't know what GC owners are going to do because they won't have The Greatest Sports Game Ever Created(tm) on their console.

So IMO to say that they will rule, and considering that both other consoles have this game yet the GC doesn't, is a stretch to me. Again, Nintendo will make a lot of money. But GC owners will remain deprived of great games such as the one I just mentioned.

Way to state your opinion as fact.

 

[Alcibiades]

I'll site two examples that bode well for September hardware sales for GCN:

1. during the Pokemon RuSa launch back in Japan (in 2002), Nintendo came with 2000 units or something like that of outselling the PS2. It went over 30,000 in sales. Sure RE: 0 launched that week also, but the success of the GCN sales were attributed to the RuSa launch.

2. during June of the month, Nintendo had the biggest software month for already released software. Hardware sales improved over May, then decreased again in July. The only major release was the low-key Four Swords Adventure (no commercials). BUT, it was also the launch of the NES-edition SP and the NES-Classic launch lineup.

here are some numbers:

Smash Brothers:

may - 28192
june - 53090
july - 43549

Double Dash:

may - 26582
june - 33919
july - 26,914

Mario Party 5:

may - 14326
june - 20760
july - 16888

A Wonderful Life saw about a 10,000 sales spike, and Twin Snakes about 1000 sales spike.

I even remember people being surprised that GCN did over 100,000 in hardware sales that month.

There was nothing super-special about this month other than it was the first month PS2 had at it's new price point. The NES-SP and games like Mario vs. Donkey Kong plus NES-Classic lineup actually helped GCN.

The GBA and it's software can help drive GCN and GCN software sales believe it or not. It may seem unlikely and/or unrelated, but everytime the NINTENDO brand name gets a bump in visibility, the GCN is by default helped. Whether this month belongs to GBA and/or GCN, coattails will automatically give a healthy bump to the others.

 

[AniHawk]

Plus, I don't know what GC owners are going to do because they won't have The Greatest Sports Game Ever Created(tm) on their console.

But Madden is on the Gamecube.