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Winter Storm for NE/MA States Friday-Sunday (Up: Blizzard warnings)

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A

Anion

Member
Inebriated said:
Latest NAM model run. Please keep in mind this is just a model...

index.php
Click to expand...

pls delay
 
U

UnlovedJew

Member
I'm actually really excited honestly. Makes me feel like a kid again. For once my area (NoVA) is going to get the brunt of a storm.
 
C

coopolon

Member
Baltimore gaf be careful out there. It's not much snow but the city has not treated the roads at all and it's a shitshow. Passed more than 5 accidents driving home on 40.

Makes me very concerned for the weekend if they can't handle this.
 
M

Mully

Member
Inebriated said:
Latest NAM model run. Please keep in mind this is just a model...

index.php
Click to expand...

This is not just a model. It's a model that's used for short term forecasting that only goes to 84 hours out. The accumulation totals shown are at the end of the model's range and the NAM is known to amplify accumulation numbers by atleast 25%.

As I said earlier. Do not look at the accumulation maps. Look at the low pressure track maps. That will tell you who is getting the big snows.

Don't look at the numbers right now. Look at the track and the models' trends of the track. As I said earlier, we should expect the 0z models to trend towards a more NW track for the storm. That is happening. Both the NAM, SREF, and GFS have moved their SLPs to the NW considerably. If the EURO does the same, NYC and Hartford are back in business for significant snows similar to what DC and Baltimore could likely get.

Watch the tracks, not the precipitation until tomorrow.
 
S

ScribbleD

Member
Mully said:
This is not just a model. It's a model that's used for short term forecasting that only goes to 84 hours out. The accumulation totals shown are at the end of the model's range and the NAM is known to amplify accumulation numbers by atleast 25%.

As I said earlier. Do not look at the accumulation maps. Look at the low pressure track maps. That will tell you who is getting the big snows.

Don't look at the numbers right now. Look at the track and the models' trends of the track. As I said earlier, we should expect the 0z models to trend towards a more NW track for the storm. That is happening. Both the NAM, SREF, and GFS have moved their SLPs to the NW considerably. If the EURO does the same, NYC and Hartford are back in business for significant snows similar to what DC and Baltimore could likely get.

Watch the tracks, not the precipitation until tomorrow.
Click to expand...

What's the likelihood of Central NJ getting buried?
 
thatJohann

thatJohann

Member
Mully said:
This is not just a model. It's a model that's used for short term forecasting that only goes to 84 hours out. The accumulation totals shown are at the end of the model's range and the NAM is known to amplify accumulation numbers by atleast 25%.

As I said earlier. Do not look at the accumulation maps. Look at the low pressure track maps. That will tell you who is getting the big snows.

Don't look at the numbers right now. Look at the track and the models' trends of the track. As I said earlier, we should expect the 0z models to trend towards a more NW track for the storm. That is happening. Both the NAM, SREF, and GFS have moved their SLPs to the NW considerably. If the EURO does the same, NYC and Hartford are back in business for significant snows similar to what DC and Baltimore could likely get.

Watch the tracks, not the precipitation until tomorrow.
Click to expand...

You give me hope. That's good. I know the NAM is short term and not trusted a lot especially this far out but the GFS completely shows the opposite. So I'm hoping you are right and we get tons of snow in NYC :)

Edit: new Canadian model shows 18" for NYC. Crossing fingers for a trend and that the GFS was an outlier.
 
C

criesofthepast

Member
Nice I got my flight changed and bypass my Washington connection completely.

Now I hope Washington gets buried under snow since it is one of the worst cities in the world that I've been to.
 
Laws00

Laws00

Member
I work outside all day and return to work on Saturday

I should also be buying getting my car tomorrow and getting it Friday. Do you guys think that I should hold off until getting it/putting it in my drive way till after the storm hits?
 
Laws00

Laws00

Member
I work at the Safari at six flags in NJ. My supervisor told me no one will fault you if you call out on Saturday. I'm wondering if I should do that too if it gets bad bad.

The animals won't die if they miss a day they told me if they can't get out there.

I don't have a AWD car
 
Lamel

Lamel

Banned
Would love some heavy snow. Hoping this pans out.

Laws00 said:
I work at the Safari at six flags in NJ. My supervisor told me no one will fault you if you call out on Saturday. I'm wondering if I should do that too if it gets bad bad.

The animals won't die if they miss a day they told me if they can't get out there.

I don't have a AWD car
Click to expand...

You guys have animals out in the Safari park during the winter?!
 
Demoskinos

Demoskinos

Member
Pittsburgh area here. Local news has alerts out for about 5-6 inches Friday going into Saturday. Doesn't seem like it'll be that bad.
 
Laws00

Laws00

Member
Lamel said:
Would love some heavy snow. Hoping this pans out.



You guys have animals out in the Safari park during the winter?!
Click to expand...

We have animals that live outside all the time like the bears, elk, deer, bision, yak, etc.

For other animals we have houses for them, heated ones. When we close the park, one of our missions is to get certain animals housed up for the winter, like the zebra, ostrich, emu, etc so they don't end up doing something stupid and go into or walk in a pond when snow falls on and the ground and get themselves stuck and drown.
 
M

Mully

Member
The EURO did in fact come slightly NW of its previous runs. The problem is, is that the storm falls apart by the time it reaches central NJ. Again, big snows for DC, Baltimore and points west of the DC metro.
 
T

torre_avenue

Banned
Hey, GAF, I have a question. I'm going to be flying back to New York this weekend, during this storm and I can't seem to understand for the life of me what the snowfall expected will be at either Charlotte or New York late Saturday night. I was just wondering if someone could help me out and tell me what is expected, just to know if I need to shift flights.
 
Laws00

Laws00

Member
torre_avenue said:
Hey, GAF, I have a question. I'm going to be flying back to New York this weekend, during this storm and I can't seem to understand for the life of me what the snowfall expected will be at either Charlotte or New York late Saturday night. I was just wondering if someone could help me out and tell me what is expected, just to know if I need to shift flights.
Click to expand...

you'll find out everything by friday
 
M

maquiladora

Member
torre_avenue said:
Hey, GAF, I have a question. I'm going to be flying back to New York this weekend, during this storm and I can't seem to understand for the life of me what the snowfall expected will be at either Charlotte or New York late Saturday night. I was just wondering if someone could help me out and tell me what is expected, just to know if I need to shift flights.
Click to expand...

It's hard to say still, at least a couple of inches but it could end up being significantly more than that too, depending on the strength, the track, the speed of the storm. Some of the models show a lot more for NY than others. Here is what the latest National Weather Service map looks like, but this isn't fixed, it will change :

StormTotalSnowFcst.png
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Dammit NAM. Why you gotta be such a dick? Are you deliberately trying to have some epic, world-altering showdown against the GFS? Because is sure looks like it! 4" vs 28" for NYC. No biggie! Let's see what this new GFS run has to say.
 
T

torre_avenue

Banned
Laws00 said:
you'll find out everything by friday
Click to expand...

We very likely will, but I'd rather not wait till the last minute to re-book my flight. Cross-country flights are bad enough, but getting a shitty route with multiple layovers would be the worst.

maquiladora said:
It's hard to say still, at least a couple of inches but it could end up being significantly more than that too, depending on the strength, the track, the speed of the storm. Some of the models show a lot more for NY than others. Here is what the latest National Weather Service map looks like, but this isn't fixed, it will change :
Click to expand...

Thanks! Considering the discrepancy with numbers, I'll hold off changing my ticket till the forecast becomes clearer, but it is not looking good for me at the moment. I'm hoping the storm stops late Saturday evening, though knowing my luck, it'll run all the way till Sunday.
 
M

Mully

Member
aspiegamer said:
Dammit NAM. Why you gotta be such a dick? Are you deliberately trying to have some epic, world-altering showdown against the GFS? Because is sure looks like it! 4" vs 28" for NYC. No biggie! Let's see what this new GFS run has to say.
Click to expand...

GFS run has initialized.

Global models like the EURO and GFS are slightly better with general tracks of storms, but can't see small areas of banding or slight wobbles too well.

High res models like the NAM and SREFS, are good at banding and slight wobbles, but aren't that great at predicting tracks outside of 48 hours.

This is not a model war. It's a model dark zone. The global models are in their blind spot, as are the short term high res models. This is always the time period where the global models waver and the high res models pump out massive precipitation. Neither is right. That said, if you look at the trends from both the high res and the global runs from today, you'll notice a northwest push from model solutions made on Tuesday.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Mully said:
This is not a model war. It's a model dark zone. The global models are in their blind spot, as are the short term high res models.
Click to expand...
Hah. I know, I know. The way we essentially refer to them like people always makes me think they all have individual rivalries and would fight for supremacy in some WWE format if given the chance, with the global agencies being referees of sorts. They all have good/bad streaks and gain streaks of favor/disfavor. Since the models get run at different times it gives the idea of a back-and-forth, as well. The tropical models in particular. Since it's serious business it takes the edge off a bit.

That said... the new GFS seems to double down on its previous solution of a moisture split, with the initial surge slowing down as the system flies off the coast.

Edit: Hm, missed that the euro model is even farther south. This is a rather wide disagreement.
maquiladora said:
Here's the latest GFS. Big difference between this and the NAM for some areas! GFS still wants to bury DC with 30+ inches....
Click to expand...
There's near universal agreement that DC is going to get hammered with ~24-30" and we'll lose contact with central Virginia, at least.
 
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