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[Ridley327]

Owen Wilson was absorbed into Ben Stiller's group of comic actors, and they were basically running things for a few years before the Apatow group took over.

That was also quite helpful!

I do feel like that Luke was always had way too much of a leading man look about him to get him anywhere near the same amount of comedic roles, artificially capping his versatility. I do find it weird that he hasn't shown up in a Wes Anderson film since The Royal Tenenbaums, which for my money is still his finest performance, so who knows.

 

[kswiston]

Official tracking for PotC: Dead Men Tell No Tales is $90-100M over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend. Baywatch is expected to do $45-50M over 5 days.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/pirates...p-memorial-day-box-office-opening-1202084122/

 

[DJChuy]

I saw How To Be A Latin Lover, and I enjoyed it. I wouldn't exactly call it a good film, but growing up watching Derbez, it was pretty much what I expected.

Alamo Drafthouse is going to broadcast Logan Noir (B/W version). Going for sure. This will contribute a bit to the box office right?

 

[BumRush]

Official tracking for PotC: Dead Men Tell No Tales is $90-100M over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend. Baywatch is expected to do $45-50M over 5 days.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/pirates...p-memorial-day-box-office-opening-1202084122/

Something like $100M over memorial day should equal ~$220M or so Total? With conversion rates where they are, $700M overseas is probably the best Disney can hope for, I'd think (with the last Pirates making just over $800M). Would you say $900M is best case for P5?

 

[kswiston]

Something like $100M over memorial day should equal ~$220M or so Total? With conversion rates where they are, $700M overseas is probably the best Disney can hope for, I'd think (with the last Pirates making just over $800M). Would you say $900M is best case for P5?

I am hesitant to say until I have an idea of how China will approach the film.

The $730M the last film made outside of China overseas would end up being closer to $525M with today's exchange. It therefore seems like a stretch to expect much more than $500M overseas outside of China. I have no idea how big the film will be in China though. It will for sure be over $100M, but it could end up being one of those $200M+ films.

I'm thinking that somewhere between $750-900M makes sense, but we'll have to wait and see. I honestly wasn't expecting this film to be very good after the past sequels, but the buzz so far is pretty positive. That could influence things.

 

[BumRush]

I am hesitant to say until I have an idea of how China will approach the film.

The $730M the last film made outside of China overseas would end up being closer to $525M with today's exchange. It therefore seems like a stretch to expect much more than $500M overseas outside of China. I have no idea how big the film will be in China though. It will for sure be over $100M, but it could end up being one of those $200M+ films.

I'm thinking that somewhere between $750-900M makes sense, but we'll have to wait and see. I honestly wasn't expecting this film to be very good after the past sequels, but the buzz so far is pretty positive. That could influence things.

The first one was so much fun, I'm really hoping it gets back there again.

But...I don't have too much faith because:

Black Pearl: RT = 79%
Dead Man's Chest: RT = 54%
At World's End: RT = 45%
On Stranger Tides: RT = 32%

They became so bloated (although 4 was the shortest), and lost that "fun" aspect

 

[Slayven]

Kswizzl go ahead and add 18.63 to Guardians WO, just brought my tickets

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

The first one was so much fun, I'm really hoping it gets back there again.

But...I don't have too much faith because:

Black Pearl: RT = 79%
Dead Man's Chest: RT = 54%
At World's End: RT = 45%
On Stranger Tides: RT = 32%

They became so bloated (although 4 was the shortest), and lost that "fun" aspect

For what it's worth, this one has a runtime of 129 minutes, so it's the shortest Pirates film by about 10 minutes.

I don't think I'm going to have a good idea on what this movie will do until reviews hit. People still fondly remember the first one, and the marketing has been pretty excellent, so this is a case where strong reviews would make a big difference for a blockbuster.

 

[tomtom94]

Official tracking for PotC: Dead Men Tell No Tales is $90-100M over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend. Baywatch is expected to do $45-50M over 5 days.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/pirates...p-memorial-day-box-office-opening-1202084122/

I can't believe people still actually want to watch those things given the negative reception for 4 and Johnny Depp but apparently they do. Sigh.

 

[Obliterator]

Friday is my only day off this weekend and literally every showing for Guardians at my normal theatre is sold out.

That sucks. Guess I have to wait for next weekend

 

[BumRush]

For what it's worth, this one has a runtime of 129 minutes, so it's the shortest Pirates film by about 10 minutes.

I don't think I'm going to have a good idea on what this movie will do until reviews hit. People still fondly remember the first one, and the marketing has been pretty excellent, so this is a case where strong reviews would make a big difference for a blockbuster.

That's really encouraging, tbh

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Guardians 2 theater count: 4,347

10th widest release of all time, and only two theaters shy of the theater count the first Avengers had.

 

[AndersK]

Guardians 2 theater count: 4,347

10th widest release of all time, and only two theaters shy of the theater count the first Avengers had.

What determines theater count? Can't solely be demand, right?

 

[GAMEPROFF]

Guardians 2 theater count: 4,347

10th widest release of all time, and only two theaters shy of the theater count the first Avengers had.

Thats going to be a giant theater decrease in two weeks

 

[3N16MA]

The in depth posts are making my head hurt. I only come here to watch Bronson make a fool of himself.

 

[kswiston]

Thats going to be a giant theater decrease in two weeks

I doubt it. What else is going to be making money by then? It will have a typical venue drop on its third weekend. Fate of the Furious, The Boss Baby, The Circle, and Beauty and the Beast all have plenty of venues to shed before Guardians will see serious losses.

 

[BumRush]

Kswizzl go ahead and add 18.63 to Guardians WO, just brought my tickets

Spoiler

Slayven bump incoming...

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

What determines theater count? Can't solely be demand, right?

Based solely on my own observations, it's based on a combination of demand, expectations, and precedent set by previous films in a franchise. The latter two are the biggest reasons, IMO; Furious 7 opened in 4,022 theaters, was an absolute monster, and consequently F8 opened in 4,310 theaters.

I do wonder if some more theaters have opened up in the last couple years, though. It was strange at the time and even more so now that Avengers 2 opened in "only" 4,276 theaters. We may yet break Twilight 3's theater count record!

 

[kswiston]

Guardians 2 is at $154M through Wednesday overseas. I was too optimistic with my projection for the weekdays earlier in the thread. May 1st really skewed the data.

Domestic + China is still looking good for $200M+ though, so I still think that we'll get a weekend in the $300M range worldwide.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Prediction round-up:

Box Office Mojo: $158.3M
Box Office Guru: $152M
BoxOffice.com: $160M

Basically, everyone is in agreement on $150M+ for the weekend.

 

[kswiston]

Prediction round-up:

Box Office Mojo: $158.3M
Box Office Guru: $152M
BoxOffice.com: $160M

Basically, everyone is in agreement on $150M+ for the weekend.

Hopefully that ends up being the case, and we don't get a repeat of the last two MCU films that kicked off the summer season.

Anyone think that Guardians can hit $20M in previews?

 

[3N16MA]

Hopefully that ends up being the case, and we don't get a repeat of the last two MCU films that kicked off the summer season.

Anyone think that Guardians can hit $20M in previews?

Didn't Suicide Squad hit 20M? Of course that was the summer but if my memory serves me correct I think GotG2 will get there.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

DHD early preview estimates are $17-20M

 

[BumRush]

DHD early preview estimates are $17-20M

Not bad at all

 

[Schlorgan]

I'll be seeing it tonight with the wife. Pretty stoked.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Official number for previews is $17M.

Probably needs $40M from the rest of today to keep the $150M opening dream alive. If it sees a similar ratio to Civil War and Avengers 2, it will come in at ~$120M, and I'll just assume it's impossible for me not to overpredict a Marvel sequel by at least $30M.

 

[FoneBone]

Official number for previews is $17M.

Welp, not optimistic about it meeting those $150+ million projections now.

 

[Obliterator]

Official number for previews is $17M.

Probably needs $40M from the rest of today to keep the $150M opening dream alive. If it sees a similar ratio to Civil War and Avengers 2, it will come in at ~$120M, and I'll just assume it's impossible for me not to overpredict a Marvel sequel by at least $30M.

Huh pretty weird how all the latest Marvel films are being over predicted by the major outlets.

And it's not like these films are under performing. They are all posting great / huge box office runs. I mean Guardians regardless will bring in much more money than the 1st. I wonder what is making them over predict so much

After those preview numbers I'll go with $130 million opening weekend

 

[Schlorgan]

$130m sounds very reasonable. I'll back that prediction.

 

[BronsonLee]

The BGE Bump + The Slayven Slide

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Paramount just bumped the release date of Transformers up two days to June 21st. I wonder if they're hoping the 5-day total can match the 3-day cume of the last one.

The BGE Bump + The Slayven Slide

Haha. Possibly the BGE curse, depending on how the weekend goes.

 

[kswiston]

Ya, I think that we are falling into the overprediction game all around on GotG 2. $120-130M would make topping the first film domestically an iffy prospect.

At least I called no $1B gross

Overseas was $167M through Thursday.

First day in China was just over $14M without ticketing fees. The weekend is going to be in the $50M range. Maybe a tad under.

 

[Obliterator]

Ya, I think that we are falling into the overprediction game all around on GotG 2. $120-130M would make topping the first film domestically an iffy prospect.

At least I called no $1B gross

Overseas was $167M through Thursday.

First day in China was just over $14M without ticketing fees. The weekend is going to be in the $50M range. Maybe a tad under.

You don't think Guardians 2 is going to outgross 1? That would be surprising

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

You don't think Guardians 2 is going to outgross 1? That would be surprising

If the weekend gross is $130, it'd require a 2.56 multiplier. Which doesn't sound like a lot, but it's proven to be very difficult for major openers in the first week of May to get above a 2.5; Avengers 1 is the only film to do so in the last 5 years.

 

[Slayven]

Thor 3 will have to be godlike to top GOTG 2

 

[Obliterator]

If the weekend gross is $130, it'd require a 2.56 multiplier. Which doesn't sound like a lot, but it's proven to be very difficult for major openers in the first week of May to get above a 2.5; Avengers 1 is the only film to do so in the last 5 years.

Huh yeah I didn't look too into the numbers but a 2.5 multiplier doesn't sound heavy at all, but I guess films struggle to hit that in this release slot.

I'll still stick with Guardians 2 out grossing 1. I think it'll have decent legs. If it doesn't I'm not too sure Marvel will be very happy with the result

 

[NealMcCauley]

Age of Ultron and Civil War were both over predicted too, right?

 

[Obliterator]

Age of Ultron and Civil War were both over predicted too, right?

I think Dr. Strange was as well unless I'm misremembering.

It seems everyone pretty much is over inflating Marvel box office grosses. I think it might be due to the fact Marvel Box Offices have just kept rising but that has to level off plateau somewhere and we might be seeing that now

 

[ZeoVGM]

I can't believe people still actually want to watch those things given the negative reception for 4 and Johnny Depp but apparently they do. Sigh.

4 being a disappointment doesn't stop my faith in the director of this movie. The original cast returning is also a plus.

And Depp is still fantastic as Jack Sparrow, so I'm definitely not seeing that negative reception. Even in 4, he still played the character well.

 

[Slayven]

I only seen the first 2 pirate movies, i was over Depp just being weird. Willy Wonka, Dark Shadows, Etc

 

[kswiston]

I think Dr. Strange was as well unless I'm misremembering.

It seems everyone pretty much is over inflating Marvel box office grosses. I think it might be due to the fact Marvel Box Offices have just kept rising but that has to level off plateau somewhere and we might be seeing that now

Doctor strange was tracking in the $60-70M range according to studios, but boxoffice.com called its opening weekend two months out. The eventual ~$85M wasn't a huge surprise. Legs were a little better than expected as well.

 

[kswiston]

Deadline is saying $53-60M for GotG2 based on early Friday numbers. That includes the $17M previews.

 

[Bronx-Man]

Has the superhero bubble finally burst?

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

I laughed out loud when I saw the range Deadline posted.

 

[broncobuster]

The BGE Bump + The Slayven Slide

Damn. Less than a year to convince Slayven to hold off on watching Black Panther for the greater good.

 

[Boke1879]

Has the superhero bubble finally burst?

I KNEW you were going to post this lol.

 

[kswiston]

I laughed out loud when I saw the range Deadline posted.

$127-149M based on that range and Civil War increases from Friday minus previews.

So basically anything from disappointing to about what was expected.

 

[GAMEPROFF]

Has the superhero bubble finally burst?

I know its a joke but when someone posts stuff like this I am always not sure if the movie is doing good, ok or bad

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

$127-149M based on that range and Civil War increases from Friday minus previews.

So basically anything from disappointing to about what was expected.

Variety is reporting a $150M early projection, while THR has a $140-150M range. No Friday projections given from either.

Interestingly, Box Office Mojo is saying Disney expects $150M now, so at least internally they expect it to perform a lot more backloaded than Civil War.

 

[kswiston]

Deadline is now saying $56M on Friday, but they still have the weekend at $142-150M.

Seems to optimistic unless Friday is being lowballed.

Even a 25% bump on Saturday and a 30% drop on Sunday would give you $139M, and those would be good Sat/Sun holds.