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Wkd BO 0707-0917 - Minions cede dominion over box office, Homecoming KING
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
I'm one of the few people on earth who really enjoys both Ang Lee's Hulk and The Incredible Hulk.
Come on Universal, will you play nice if I go see The Mummy?
Well Jungle Book was horrible and it still made close to a billion
This is because Universal is integrating Hulk into Furious 9 and 10
Same here
I'm one of the few people on earth who really enjoys both Ang Lee's Hulk and The Incredible Hulk.
Lee's Hulk was the BvS of its time, in terms of using a well known IP and going fucking bananas with it
There's appealing to everyone and there's casually throwing around $800m+ box office predictions. This is the type of talk that leads to $1B+ WW hits being considered box office disappointments.
Belle is part of the collective Disney Princess line that gets plastered all over merchandise. She did not have much of her own merchandise outside of the DVD and Blu-Ray rerelease of the film in which Disney pumps out a new line dedicated to that specific film. They went all in with the release of the live action film.
Over the past 7 years Rapunzel has probably been plastered on more merchandise than any Lion King character. Cinderella is in the same boat. Disney opted not to do a Tangled sequel and Cinderella did decent numbers but not Jungle Book numbers (less merch than Lion King).
I don't think the lack of Lion King merchandise matters much.
Over the past 7 years Rapunzel has probably been plastered on more merchandise than any Lion King character. Cinderella is in the same boat. Disney opted not to do a Tangled sequel and Cinderella did decent numbers but not Jungle Book numbers (less merch than Lion King).
I don't think the lack of Lion King merchandise matters much.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
:lol Well, I'm not signing on for $1B domestic, even facetiously.
But I do think it can get a $200M opening on its way to a $700M+ total.
The Rock vs. The Hulk is gonna be lit.
DarkLordMalik
Member
BatB was not terrible but average and it grossed 500m. The same kind of reception would make Lion King 600m and above easily.
People who are calling Jungle Book and BatB horrible need to keep in mind that a bad movie doesn't have the legs of BatB and Jungle Book. Your personal opinion of course can be different.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I'm just saying of all the movies coming out before like, 2025, if any of them have a shot at topping The Force Awakens, it might be the Lion King.
Keep in mind, nobody thought the Force Awakens was getting near Avatar domestically, either. I didn't.
I'm just saying I wouldn't rule out the possibility. Not that I think it's definitely gonna happen.
But between The Last Jedi and The Lion King - I feel like the latter has the better opportunity to hit 1bil domestic.
Keep in mind, nobody thought the Force Awakens was getting near Avatar domestically, either. I didn't.
I'm just saying I wouldn't rule out the possibility. Not that I think it's definitely gonna happen.
But between The Last Jedi and The Lion King - I feel like the latter has the better opportunity to hit 1bil domestic.
We were discussing the possibility of $700M for TFA well before its opening weekend. I think that most thought that $600M+ was a given, even if it didn't hit $750M.
$935M off of an opening of close to $250M was more of a surprise obviously.
I could see The Lion King topping $600M if it is good. 2019 is jam packed though, and we have like 5 monster films out before Lion King hits. I wonder if that will impact its chances of really breaking out.
I agree that it is a juggernaut of a film that has the potential to do massive business. Not many films have the ability to challenge Star Wars.
Also I had over 800M DOM for TFA.
At this point there's no such thing as a solo Marvel character movie, at least for established characters.
Though I kinda want Marvel to take a stab at what Lucasfilm is going for with the Star Wars one-offs. I'd love for a Rocket and Groot movie just focused on them before GoTG. Something focused on a few characters without the universe at stake.
Schweinehund
Member
Don't think it will make more than Homecoming, IIRC it's sharing it's opening weekend with the second week of JL (which is coming off Wonder Woman now, with it's insanely good reception), and Thor movies haven't traditionally been a huge hit.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
"Bad" Transformers films gross a billion. Truly the pinnacle of storytelling. Even suicide squad had decent legs.
Depends on the definition of bad. Even commonly regarded "bad" movies can have decent enough word of mouth. More so before the rise of aggregate sites.
It's the other way around. Justice League is the third (?) weekend of Thor.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Okay okay YOU had the juice, Q.
Not anymore
Was that before or after that initial presales report?
EDIT: Also, Mojo hasn't updated, but Despicable Me 3 is just under $540M now, bumping Transformers 5 down to 9th place for the year. TF5 will probably end up passing Kong, but by then Spider-Man will also be ahead. I think that the best case scenario for Transformers is 11th place for the year worldwide. I wouldn't be that surprised if it ends up 12th or 13th though.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I can't speak for people on neogaf, but plenty of people on the box office forums I frequent thought Episode 7 would beat Avatar once the December release date was announced. I wasn't one of them until that amazing final trailer came out, but it certainly wasn't a fringe opinion that TFA was looking to be the biggest film ever domestically.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
It felt to me like here, when those "It'll beat Avatar" predictions first started popping, the majority of them seemed tied pretty tightly to fannish exuberance and not much more.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
I feel like I remember a lot of GAF expecting $550-650m dom, with a sizeable chunk expecting Avengers 2 being bigger.
And of course NO ONE bet on Jurassic World easily beating BOTH Avengers.
One month out from release. Looks like that was right after the number came out.
And then everyone used Jurassic World as proof ID:R would be huge.
broncobuster
Banned
Folks kept saying Avengers 2 would top $2B and that Star Wars wasn't relevant in 2015... it came in third domestic, fourth worldwide after Fast and Furious 7. 2015 was nuts, though.
But this time, Infinity War has to top Avengers 1.
Marvel should just do a Teamup line of movies using Hulk as a sneaky framing device
I figured it would set a new OW record and have decent legs with not much in the way of competition. 225M OW with a 3.4 multiplier would have done it.
The 3B predictions were silly.
Pretty crazy that $1.4B was only good for 4th place.
To think that Star Wars would go on to make a little over double what Age of Ultron pulled in, domestically.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I wonder if Infinity War part 1 will play second fiddle next summer. Han Solo, Incredibles 2, and Jurassic World 2 all seem like viable contenders for the $400M club, with it being a total shock if the latter most missed it.
Actually, we're on a 4 year streak of the top summer film being completely unexpected, so Alita: Battle Angel is making $500M+.
Actually, we're on a 4 year streak of the top summer film being completely unexpected, so Alita: Battle Angel is making $500M+.
QuantumZebra
Member
Jurassic World took a turn for the worse as time set in and critics weren't blown away. It came out as a perfect storm. I'd bet the sequel won't top 300 unless it's amazing.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Shit, I forgot about that.
So, we got Robert Rodriguez: garanteed gross of around 30 million dollars worldwide.
And James Cameron: 3 billion.
Therefore, I predict a total of 1,500,015 for Battle Angel Alita.
MHWilliams
Member
Han Solo I'm fuzzy on, even though I think the film will turn out well. Incredibles 2, yes. Jurassic World 2? I think the fact that the first was just okay will hit the second.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
It'll absolutely drop domestically, but it would have even if JW was fantastic. $400m is still nearly a 40% drop though, so I think it should manage at least that. Especially since I fully expect it to be much better, so word of mouth should help it a bit.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
Seems like Thor 3 is the only 'legit MCU' movie of the year anyway, so betting against it just seems silly now that we know how the others play out.
Speaking of which, Spidey v3 has now made 175 domestic, which was the number I put down as a prediction earlier this year.
Speaking of which, Spidey v3 has now made 175 domestic, which was the number I put down as a prediction earlier this year.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Pretty much my thoughts as well on why sub $400M for JW2 would be pretty crazy.
Of course, I would have said the same about sub 500 for Avengers 2
I do wonder how much of the backlash to Jurassic World is, a) been there since the release date, and b) will matter if there's another dino royal rumble in the last act.
You bet that there is a FF movie among the unrevealed Fox movies. You love those, right? It's the Fantastic Four.
MHWilliams
Member
We have no clue, because there's no indication what you're referencing.
Did you not just feast?
BronsonLee
Member
broncobuster
Banned
Hulk will never live down getting between by a Hulkbuster in the MCU.
The two minutes of Silver Surfer kicking the F4's ass was pretty cool.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Pretty much my thoughts as well on why sub $400M for JW2 would be pretty crazy.Of course, I would have said the same about sub 500 for Avengers 2
I do wonder how much of the backlash to Jurassic World is, a) been there since the release date, and b) will matter if there's another dino royal rumble in the last act.
I do think b may hit on why Jurassic might be a bit more insulated, given that it's still the only place for big ol' dinosaur set pieces, whereas Avengers is one of many super hero spectacle films.
While '90s and early 2000s films with slightly bigger release gaps aren't exactly the best references at all, Jurassic Park to Lost World was about a 36% drop domestically, and Lost World to JPIII was a 21% domestic drop. Worldwide TLW faired better than it did domestically (though barely), and you'd have to look at JPIII's worldwide drop before you passed 40% (about 40.4 to be exact). Considering how warmly received those sequels were, I think that shows that Jurassic has a tad bit more leeway and a bigger buffer on its drops. Maybe anyway.
And with Fallen Kingdom probably being better (it's J.A. Bayona, it WILL be better), that makes it the odd one out on any of these comparisons, since Avengers 2 is almost universally considered to be lesser than the original, and each of the two Jurassic sequels received worse reception, particularly next to the original. Fallen Kingdom will probably have a depressed opening, but legs should be better methinks. So the opposite of Lost World's record shattering opening and very weak legs. (well, not total opposite, it won't have Wonder Woman legs or something lol)
Hmmm. If Guardians 2 can hit $390m I don't see how IW could only top that by $15m.
IW - $450m
Han Solo - $380m. Still plenty of Star Wars hype to feed off.
JW2 - $370m. Mixed reception to JW will hurt it.
Incredibles 2 - $350m. Been a long time between drinks. Could actually work in its favour, like JW, or hurt it.