lazybones18
Banned
$35 mil to go for JW to top Titanic on the Domestic charts. Still showing in over 2.5k theaters, but it might fall just a wee bit short
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Wkd BO 0724-2615 - The fault in Sandler's movie career... Lil ant-man that could
- Thread starter xaosslug
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Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
Not making it.
Future Foundation
Member
Episode VII would need to not meet BO predictions cooked up by some overenthusiastic fans for those to consider it a disappointment.
Guaranteed disappointment.
Just because you think a movie is going to do very well doesn't mean you're an overenthusiastic fan. Predictions are predictions.
Scorpion Soldier
Member
Predictions really do depend on actual context though. Of course the actual events may vary, but for instance for a December opening I wouldn't call $200+ million opening week considering those numbers are just way out of the ballpark for a December release IMO, but as with everything, anyone can be proven wrong.
Yah I don't Star Wars is going to top the OW record. Dat December opening won't allow it.
Scorpion Soldier
Member
Box office total should be monster though, since it's got the hypothetical legs and hype going for it. (And a good word of mouth if it turns out to be good.)
KillerMan91
Member
You know the world has changed when you notice some weird named film on the wordwide chart list and wonder how in the hell it has made 211 million. Then you check from wiki that it's just new popular chinese film.
I have a feeling many people will not see it that way. Break Cameron or bust.
BattleMonkey
Member
box office doesn't matter much for Star Wars, the real money is in the merchandise. It's going to make more than the movies take and blow away all the other films on those lists just on merch alone.
Yep. Their toy sales are the real story. No other film franchise comes close as a franchise in terms of merchandise numbers. I mean Star Wars consistently remains the #1 boys toy brand year after year even without any movies since 2005 for a reason.
Maybe you should look up what overenthusiastic actually means before using it?
170M reduction over the last and contraction in overseas gross would mean SW7 would gross around 600M WW. Zero chances of that going to happen and that target is not even enthusiastic leave alone "over".
Then these people are not following box-office grosses or trends. The first target for SW7 should be Phantom Menace and the rest should be gravy.
Yep, few major American films have actually grossed more in China than in NA.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
It's not a stupid example. "Something akin" != "the exact same thing with the exact same numbers."
This please, one of the members is a dinosaur, dinosaurs are in.
You are equating expectations of grossing the same as previous movie (in the case of Avengers) to outgrossing Avatar (for SW7).
Obviously you will fail to see the leap of logic there.
AHA-Lambda
Member
$40m and $1
Revenge of the Sith came out 10 years ago. I'm not sure why you are sticking to absolute number differences between films that came out 3 years apart (and even there you are mixing up domestic and worldwide differences). Age of Ultron will make 70% more worldwide than the highest grossing comic film of all time circa 2005 (Spider-man with $828M). Obviously expectations are different in our post-3D/post-IMAX era.
Also, scale matters. Is Age of Ultron a bigger disappointment than Ted 2 domestically by your reckoning because it dropped ~$165M vs Ted 2's ~$140M?
$165M makes up a 27% drop for Age of Ultron (worldwide the film is down only 8%). $165M down from Revenge of the Sith would be a 43% drop, ignoring the fact that the Force Awakening is a direct sequel to Return of the Jedi (not the prequel films), and is coming out a decade after any Star Wars film.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
No, because that's not what I'm fuckin' doing.
I'm talking about a fandom, specifically Star Wars fandom, taking every opportunity to look at Jurassic World grosses, and then responding with sentiments along the lines of "It's going to crush that opening weekend record" and "It's going to top Titanic," and making that assumption so automatic that if and when the movie DOESN'T do those numbers, the media narrative will then be locked in, because everyone has been hearing for over a half a year that whatever it is Jurassic World did won't be shit compared to what Star Wars does. Sorta like how a whole bunch of Marvel fans legitimately expected an opening weekend north of 215 million, and a domestic tally somewhere between 650-675 million - partially because of how much money Furious 7 made, i.e. "If Furious 7 did that? Man, Marvel's going to fucking KILL IT"
I'm equating knee-jerk, poorly thought out predictions-turned-expectations turning into overstated disappointment, to the potential of knee-jerk, poorly thought out predictions-turning-into-expectations becoming a disappointment narrative come December.
It's pretty obvious what I'm doing, too, if you read along, as opposed to misunderstanding the discussion and then misunderstanding how "akin to" is not "exactly like". Kswiston's basically covered the rest of it.
demosthenes
Member
Glad Ant-Man had a great weekend. It's a fun movie, I hope the positive wom helps it.
Star Wars opening? Man, Superman v Batman is going to Annihilate it
Anyhow, I am glad to know that I should only be looking at absolute numbers with no context taken into consideration. I now predict that Ghostbusters 2016 will be a huge success, because the last film made $215M worldwide, and this would will surely top that.
People should also stop picking on Superman Returns. It made 25x what the previous Superman film made. Jurassic World doesn't have shit on it.
People should also stop picking on Superman Returns. It made 25x what the previous Superman film made. Jurassic World doesn't have shit on it.
Pixels wasn't that bad depending on your expectations. If you have kids, they seemed to really really like it when I went. The theatre was mostly empty so not surprised on the numbers. Movie is better than reviews IMO which is not something I have said about a Sandler movie for some time.
Does Dinklage steel the show?
Future Foundation
Member
That's what I meant. I didn't mean to go so "blanket statement" with my response.
Inferno313
Banned
56% is a pretty average-above average drop for a big movie though. Seems like less of a success on Ant-Man's part than a weak movie weekend overall.
A weekend where nothing breaks $25M is extremely weak for July. The last time a July opener finished at #1 with less than $25M was in 2009, and that barely even counts since the weekend was Jul 31st to Aug 2nd. You have to go back to 2006 to get a proper July weekend in this range.
That's a lot of releases haha
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Left out Spectre, too.
Upcoming 2015 Films that I think have a shot at opening over $50M
- Mission Impossible 5 (pretty close to locked)
- Fantastic Four (maybe)
- The Maze Runner: Scorch Trials (It would need a big increase over the last film, but that film had good legs)
- Hotel Transylvania 2 (first opened to $42M)
- The Martian (outside chance depending on reviews)
- Pan (WB better hope so)
- Spectre (locked)
- Mockingjay Pt 2 (locked)
- The Peanuts movie (I think this will depend somewhat on reviews/WOM, but it could be pretty big, Spectre opening the same weekend hurts some)
- The Good Dinosaur (locked)
- Star Wars: the Force Awakens (locked)
Some of those obviously won't make the $50M mark for various reasons, and we will probably have 1-2 surprises not on my list, but that's my take.
- Mission Impossible 5 (pretty close to locked)
- Fantastic Four (maybe)
- The Maze Runner: Scorch Trials (It would need a big increase over the last film, but that film had good legs)
- Hotel Transylvania 2 (first opened to $42M)
- The Martian (outside chance depending on reviews)
- Pan (WB better hope so)
- Spectre (locked)
- Mockingjay Pt 2 (locked)
- The Peanuts movie (I think this will depend somewhat on reviews/WOM, but it could be pretty big, Spectre opening the same weekend hurts some)
- The Good Dinosaur (locked)
- Star Wars: the Force Awakens (locked)
Some of those obviously won't make the $50M mark for various reasons, and we will probably have 1-2 surprises not on my list, but that's my take.
AoU while a sucess failed to reach the lofty expectations set upon it by the media and many fans. This has lead to some looking at it is a disappointment. I think Bobby is relating Episode VII to that same situation and It makes sense to do that as Episode VII is being hammered with lofty expectations. I have heard everything from breaking the OW record to topping Avatar.
The film is going to be successful but there will be those who deem it a disappointment if it does not reach their lofty expectations.
At least this is what I'm getting from his post. He is not making a 1:1 comparsion based on exact numbers.
The film is going to be successful but there will be those who deem it a disappointment if it does not reach their lofty expectations.
At least this is what I'm getting from his post. He is not making a 1:1 comparsion based on exact numbers.
Discotheque
Banned
Pan looks great, it will be a real shame if it flops because I already know I'm in for a great looking movie since Wright directed it. Plus their idea of making the adults look absurd because neverland is for the kids is great, though i feel like it will go over a lot of people's heads.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Title should have gone with something like "Lil old ant has high hopes".
What does box office GAF think about Spectre? Bond has always been a solid consistent mid-level blockbuster but never was a gigantic blockbuster level franchise till Skyfall which blew up overseas and domestic and pulled a billion.
Was Skyfall a fluke or has Bond pulled a Fast and Furious sort of franchise shift into the big leagues and not look back?
At least anecdotally the amount of attention and discussion about the latest Spectre trailer seems to dwarf the amount of attention pre-Skyfall Bond movies have got. It "feels" like the leap into the big leagues has so far been sustaining and could pull off being another billion dollar movie.
Was Skyfall a fluke or has Bond pulled a Fast and Furious sort of franchise shift into the big leagues and not look back?
At least anecdotally the amount of attention and discussion about the latest Spectre trailer seems to dwarf the amount of attention pre-Skyfall Bond movies have got. It "feels" like the leap into the big leagues has so far been sustaining and could pull off being another billion dollar movie.
Jawmuncher
Member
I dunno I think it can, but barely.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
The most annoying thing will be the instant pitchforks from people who don't get how December box office works in terms of opening weekend. You are going to see A LOT of people who do not frequent these threads flood that opening weekend thread to mock Star Wars for not opening like a summer movie. That opening weekend thread is going to be a fucking mess, there is no doubt. Unless it does something insane like opens with 200 mil in Decemver but that is never going to happen.
Exchange rate is going to hurt Spectre in some of Skyfall's biggest territories. the Euro traded at $1.27-$1.31 USD during fall/winter 2012. Now it trades at about $1.10 USD.
Skyfall made over $250M in Eurozone. Russian, Japanese and Australian currencies are also notably down. Those three territories account for another $105M of Skyfall's $1.1B. The Pound sterling has held better since 2012, but I am not sure how likely Spectre is to match the $160M Skyfall made in the UK either.
China will compensate some.
Future Foundation
Member
At least based on discussion, it feels like it's made that leap up to the big leagues. I think it'll do well, but WoM will give it that extra push (as it did w/ Skyfall) and make sure Bond stays up there.
That's more likely to break this go around than Bond dipping under $1B I think.
hodayathink
Member
It's under expectations, but it's a really cheap movie, so they're still going to pull a hefty profit on it.
And as long as the third movie from his books sticks with (relatively) unknown actors, it's probably going to make a pretty large profit was well.
I hate Adam Sandler in every other work of his besides Happy Gilmore, and he even wasn't that great in Pixels. Doesn't change the fact that Pixels is a more fun blockbuster than everything this summer besides Inside Out, Mad Max, and Avengers. It achieves its quality in spite of Sandler though.
Or of curiosity why do you think most people, critics and regular viewers who saw it pan the movie as one of if not the worst of the year?
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