Sweeney Tom
Banned
I could spend three hours seeing BR2049 once, or I could spend three hours seeing Happy Death Day twice in a row
Not a difficult decision at all #TeamBlumhouse
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Wkd BO 1013-1517 - Audiences show Death Day & Jackie Chan what love is, Blade dull
- Thread starter xaosslug
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I could spend three hours seeing BR2049 once, or I could spend three hours seeing Happy Death Day twice in a row
Not a difficult decision at all #TeamBlumhouse
Hashmal_Bringer_of_Order
Member
I think we're in a minority because not that many people even saw Blade Runner 1
The scene with the through-wall-grab was fine, I'm talking specifically that scene afterwards I linked. I think the movement just comes off as silly, not menacing.
OrangeAtlas
Member
I keep getting that and Thank You For Your Service mixed up.
Funny, I totally expected the critical reception to be flipped on them.
In Paramount Doomwatch news, streams have been crossed:
2017 is currently the worst year in the 2000s for them. Unless it underperforms Suburbicon should get 2017 back to 2nd worst and Daddy's Home 2 should keep it up there for a bit longer. Streams should cross again in December (there might be a blip between Suburbicon and Daddy's Home 2), if they cross before then that's real bad for Paramount.
Eh Thank you for your service has always looked like weepy garbage American cultural imperialism. 🤷
Then again reviews aren't in for that one yet.
2017 is currently the worst year in the 2000s for them. Unless it underperforms Suburbicon should get 2017 back to 2nd worst and Daddy's Home 2 should keep it up there for a bit longer. Streams should cross again in December (there might be a blip between Suburbicon and Daddy's Home 2), if they cross before then that's real bad for Paramount.
Its the Miles Teller Real America Cinematic Universe.
Eh Thank you for your service has always looked like weepy garbage American cultural imperialism. 🤷
Then again reviews aren't in for that one yet.
Lord of Castamere
Member
I swear I saw the trailers back to back during Blade Runner and American Made, was so confusing.
Disney's 2019 lineup must be making other studios cry.
You got:
Captain Marvel
Dumbo
Avengers: Infinity War Part 2 (or whatever they call it)
Aladdin
Toy Story 4
The Lion King
Artemis Fowl
Frozen 2
Star Wars Episode IX
With Furious 9 moving to 2020, and Justice League Part 2 probably dead, Disney should have the Top 5 on lock.
You got:
Captain Marvel
Dumbo
Avengers: Infinity War Part 2 (or whatever they call it)
Aladdin
Toy Story 4
The Lion King
Artemis Fowl
Frozen 2
Star Wars Episode IX
With Furious 9 moving to 2020, and Justice League Part 2 probably dead, Disney should have the Top 5 on lock.
As someone who liked both movies, though the first one more, I believe I do understand. Like the original, BR2049 is a very slow movie alternating mostly between scenes with plenty of dialogue or quiet ones where not much of anything is happening, has very little action, and is characterized by a bleak, dystopic sci-fi setting. These things, combined with a nearly three-hour runtime when the first had trouble holding people's attention within less than two, add up to a viewing experience that's very unfriendly to a general/mainstream audience.
And indeed, the advertising making it look more action-focused than it actually was did it no favors. Not really under the impression of Ryan Gosling being especially popular, though.
$4b+ for sure.
Artemis Fowl could be TOmorrow Land Take 2
Discotheque
Banned
*Jurassic park pile of shit gif*
Outside of star wars and maybe toy story I doubt any of those end up being that great. Definitely looks like a record breaking year for the studio tho. Insane numbers on the board.
But the 2nd is a good film and doesnt even need the first film to be good in its own right :/.
Now that's what I call a lineup!
Read pass Captain Marvel
Discotheque
Banned
What happens if you end up liking that movie man. Does your reality shatter
I can enjoy something while not being fond of a character in it/
Skrulls helps a lot
broncobuster
Banned
I don't know what to expect from Toy Story 4. Maybe Andy gets a funko and amiibo addiction and it falls to Woody and Buzz to save him from his consumerism lifestyle.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Andy will have taken on collecting Marvel toys, then we get Small Soldiers by way of Pixar/Marvel.
The last movie had them end up imprisoned and nearly murdered so I have no clue where they go with this one. Maybe they willfully commit suicide to go the recycling plant to help save the planet?
Please cross over with Monsters Inc.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Andy sells his toys for loot crate money.
biggest marvel movie
biggest live action disney movie
biggest pixar movie
biggest disney animation movie
biggest star wars movie/biggest movie period
all in one year. fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck
Aladdin and Dumbo seem like train wrecks waiting to happen
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Its good.
hodayathink
Member
Tim Burton and Guy Ritchie coming off flops? Yeah, there's reason to have pause about those two.
I wouldn't be surprised if two of those didn't make 2019
I've only read one book, but that was pretty ok. Certainly far better than some Hunger Games & its ilk.
Damn, is only excited for Episode IX. Still wondering why Toy Story 4 exists. Disney will demolish records if all those make it in 2019.
Razgriz-Specter
Member
When's Mulan?
The idea that Annbelle Creation could outgross Blade Runner 2049 globally, and likely in the US too, is incredible. To think that there were many chided Warners for not co-financing film with Alcon and now Sony are looking at a massive loss.
Also, it looks like American Assassin is another pricey bomb for CBS Films. I'll probably check this film out at some point but nothing about it screamed cinema trip.
And speaking of pricey bombs, if anyone knows Larry Ellison tell him to stay off Deadline this weekend as Geostorm is opening and the three day gross is bound to upset him.
If Justice League is a hit there will be a sequel, likely in 2020.
End of story.
Also, it looks like American Assassin is another pricey bomb for CBS Films. I'll probably check this film out at some point but nothing about it screamed cinema trip.
And speaking of pricey bombs, if anyone knows Larry Ellison tell him to stay off Deadline this weekend as Geostorm is opening and the three day gross is bound to upset him.
If Justice League is a hit there will be a sequel, likely in 2020.
End of story.
2019 for WB:
Lego Movie 2
Godzilla 2
Shazam!
Minecraft
IT 2
Wonder Woman 2
Looking at everyone else in 2019, WB has a guaranteed 2nd place for that year. It and WW will probably be the most successful of those.
Universal has:
Glass (Split sequel)
How to Train Your Dragon 3
SLoP 2
Cowboy Ninja Viking
FF spinoff
Wicked
Sony:
MiB spinoff
Charlie's Angels
Homecoming 2
Angry Birds 2
Masters of the Universe
Paramount:
Transformers 6
Top Gun 2
SpongeBob 3
Gemini Man (Ang Lee movie)
Lego Movie 2
Godzilla 2
Shazam!
Minecraft
IT 2
Wonder Woman 2
Looking at everyone else in 2019, WB has a guaranteed 2nd place for that year. It and WW will probably be the most successful of those.
Universal has:
Glass (Split sequel)
How to Train Your Dragon 3
SLoP 2
Cowboy Ninja Viking
FF spinoff
Wicked
Sony:
MiB spinoff
Charlie's Angels
Homecoming 2
Angry Birds 2
Masters of the Universe
Paramount:
Transformers 6
Top Gun 2
SpongeBob 3
Gemini Man (Ang Lee movie)
Fixed. Despite the critical mauling the the first film got a solidly reviewed Suicide Squad sequel could do just as well, if not better, than the first film.
If, and again IF, WB do Minecraft properly it has the potential to be a huge hit. And when I say huge hit I mean a Frozen sized hit because Minecraft is such a massive property among kids it's basically Star Wars for tablet and Youtube obsessed kids and tweens.
Shazam could also be Harry Potter meets Superman and a huge hit in and of itself.., again, as long as the execution is right.
We shall see.
I honestly don't know what one of these slates is worse. Probably Paramount for Top Gun 2 and leaning on Spongebob and the rotting corpse of the Transformers franchise.
Since you decried Deadline's reporting on the international box office take as "spin", I decided to switch to ScreenDaily:
It's doing pretty ok for Sony, like I said earlier I think that the weak South Korea start is worrying but not dooming the film.
Alcon is in trouble though.
Is SS2 announced for 2019? I didn't see it listed (that's why I didn't put it).
The spin in Deadline was fluff like the talk of the international TV output deals which..., is all part of any film studio's business model.
It's like saying Chrysler is going to have a better year in 2018 because they will put headlights and brakes on their cars.
Alcon is in trouble but both it and Sony will lose money on Blade Runner 2049. Even crawling to $300m will still fall well short of where they thought they'd be.
That's fair. It isn't announced or scheduled but I'd put cash money on it being released in 2019.
I think 2019 could possibly see the release of Wonder Woman 2, Suicide Squad 2, Shazam and maybe
Batgirl.
That's... that's not a great analogy.
Yes it is part of any studio's business plan, but ancillary revenue (physical media, TV licensing, etc) is a significant thing. And if Sony is first in line on that it will make a difference for them. This:
Isn't really spin. It's not even saying that Sony will make a profit but is hoping for one and how it is hoping for it. It's definitely fluff though, but that's what Deadline does way too often.
It hasn't opened in several Asian markets (at minimum* Vietnam, Japan, and of course China) and is doing well in several international markets (it's doing really well in the UK comparatively to the US). It's hyperbole at best to go "Alcon and now Sony are looking at a massive loss". Like I've said repeatedly, it's doing pretty ok for Sony. (also please note how I'm using "ok" and not words like "good")
*listings are incomplete on most websites and I'm not going to through every single country to find where and when it opens
No it isn't.
Let's say the film cost $150m to produce after various local rebates which is a modest estimate given some of the numbers thrown about.
Then the P&A...,
http://deadline.com/2017/10/ryan-go...n-ford-opening-weekend-box-office-1202183063/
So that's a total investment of $280m. Let's use very sketchy thumbnail accounting and say that theatres take 50% of the gross, as K-Swiss says currency fluctuations means it can differ but let's say 50%. That means that Alcon and Sony would need at least $580-600m to break even.
Even bringing in $400m worldwide (which isn't looking likely) is going to represent a loss.
For BR2049 to bring in $300m or so worldwide (which seems more likely) definitely represents a significant loss for both Alcon and Sony off of a $280m investment.
Ancillary markets will help mop up some of the red ink (and the Deadline article tries to point out) but it's not going to mop up all of it.
The figures is Sony & Alcon put in 90 mil each before rebates and credits, so 150 mil total is in the ball park.
Alcon definitely backed the P&A in the US which is where the majority of that 130 mil was spent. Deadline also suggests that Alcon backed the P&A globally, but I'm not sure of that.
Then there is how the revenue is split, Sony gets a share of whatever it makes at the box office, they also collect a distribution fee on international box office, and they are first in line on ancillary revenue. Adding to the woes of Alcon is that Warner takes the distribution fee on the US box office.
Alcon is in trouble but Sony is in a much better place for the film and is not looking at massive losses as it looks right now.
I'm not tying myself in knots trying to figure out the minutia of these corporate deals, who is liable for what. The figures are what they are, it's basic mathematics.
Let's just agree to agree that Sony and Alcon are both going to make a loss on this film at a time when both organisations have very dark and dubious futures.
"I was wrong in conflating both companies fate when in reality they are in different positions and when confronted with reality I just give up".
It is literally basic maths to understand why Sony is in a better position, they invested less and are getting more in revenue.
Given how much you or I firmly and factually know about the specific deal Sony has on this film you might as well thrown in 'another tax for Puffy Director pants' in your calculations.
I'd honestly be shocked if DCEU came out with more than two in 2019 considering what a disorganised mess they appear to be.
I think things will become clearer (for better or worse) once Justice League has been released.
I feel like Shazam, Suicide Squad 2 and (the already confirmed) Wonder Woman 2 will all be released in 2019 regardless.
it's not crap
What are you even talking about at this stage?
So when you use hack math to say both Sony and Alcon are in line for massive losses that's ok but if I point out with the readily accessible data that Sony is looking better of the two that's not?
Or is it the budget thing? Because as an example, since the Norwegian Film Institute releases figures: The Snowman had a budget of 180 million NOK for its Norway shoot and it received 40.5 million NOK in tax rebates. So yeah getting $180 million down to ~$150 million is in the ballpark.