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Wkd BO 12•30•16-01•02•16 - New Year, same old 'One' as Sing continues back-up

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DeathyBoy

Banned
Lucy made $463M WW on a $40M production budget. That's a pretty good draw..

Lucy making that much is beyond implausible, and a clear cut sign people just plain like SJ. Which makes it even more ridiculous Marvel won't put out a Black Widow film. Between SJ and Marvel and the female lead thing, it'd fucking clean up at the box office and be comparatively cheap to make.
 
Lucy making that much is beyond implausible, and a clear cut sign people just plain like SJ. Which makes it even more ridiculous Marvel won't put out a Black Widow film. Between SJ and Marvel and the female lead thing, it'd fucking clean up at the box office and be comparatively cheap to make.

Marvel is moving away from the old guard, and Strange will probably be the main character in IW. So considering their slate is absurdly full already theres no room. Pretty sure Feige knows about this "Superhero Fatigue" narrative and will probably try to avoid reusing characters over and over.

Hell RDJ has made over 100 mills from the avenger films, how long until he says enough and quits.
 
Are we really going to compare Captain Thormerica starring Gal Gadot to a pop-fueled stylized movie with Harley and the Joker?
Well I didn't say anything about Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman's potential gross so, no?

Harley is very popular because she's been exposed in a lot of Batman media since her inception, she's everywhere. From Arkham Asylum, to Batman cartoons, to her own ongoing solo comic, to her appearances in Injustice, to, now, Suicide Squad.


DC doesn't really do that with Wonder Woman at all, she only really features in the ensemble Justice League cartoons and Injustice. Giving WW a contemporary film of her own would do a lot of work to increase her brand recognition and appeal to this generation, I think.

Do you seriously just compare Chris Evans to Gal Gadot? The man has no range but compared to her he's motherfucking Daniel Day Lewis.
For all intents and purposes, Gadot is a newcomer and hasn't really had the opportunities to showcase her acting chops, to be quite honest. We'll see I guess
 

Alrus

Member
I wonder if Valerian can outgross the Fifth Element unadjusted.

I never realized The Fifth Element did so badly in the US. I loved that movie as a kid, even if it was goofy as hell.

Also I doubt Valerian will even beat Jupiter Ascending.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Both Spider-Man: Homecoming and Guardians of the Galaxies Vol. 2 will make more than Justice League. Easily.
 

Replicant

Member
So now that Rogue One has a lock on the Domestic Crown, and Civil War more or less has a lock on the Worldwide Crown (China pending), I went back and took a look through our earlier predictions thread.

One I ran 3 months ago with no completely right guesses: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1288085&highlight=


3N16MA's thread from the beginning of the year. He didn't specify if people were guessing worldwide grosses or domestic grosses, so there's ambiguity to hide behind, but most people were off base. I haven't made my way through all of the pre-BvS release posts yet though.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1192721

Look at all of those flop guesses.
 

Cheebo

Banned
If WB stumbles through 2017 with two more sub-billion dollar super hero films that critics don't like the DCEU is pretty much done.
 
The most expensive female directed film is Kung Fu Panda 2 at $150M. Unless you want to count co-directors. Then I think it is technically Jupiter Ascensing.

Kathryn Bigelow also had a $100mil budget film over a decade ago. But key here is that it's a female led film.

True on Jupiter Ascending. I've yet to see it but I assume Mila Kunis is the protagonist.
 
I would say the outlook for $750+M looks like this:

Guaranteed
Beauty and the Beast
Fate of the Furious
Guardians of the Galaxy 2
Transformers: The Last Knight
Despicable Me 3
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Star Wars: Episode 8

Very Likely
Pirates of the Caribbean 5
Thor: Ragnarok
Justice League

Decent Chance
War for the Planets of the Apes
Dunkirk (Probably being bullish here)
Wonder Woman
Coco


That's a pretty great line-up of blockbusters from a BO perspective. Looking at the release schedule, though, August looks horrendous this year.
 

Cheebo

Banned
I am really excited for Dunkirk but that film is 500 mil, at best. Even then that is probably overly optimistic.
 

Schlorgan

Member
I am really excited for Dunkirk but that film is 500 mil, at best. Even then that is probably overly optimistic.

WB: Nolan, we let you make your Oscar-hoping WW2 film and your Space movie, now please, PLEASE come back to DC.

Or at least make Inception 2 for us.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Well, if DCEU slides off the rails somehow getting Nolan and Bale back for a TDK 4 would be beyond massive.

Not that it would ever happen, but man would it be a boxoffice behemoth.
 

Dyl

Member
Wonder Woman:
40% RT score, $600 mil worldwide.

Justice League:
10% RT score, $750 mil worldwide

Justice League will probably be more akin to Suicide Squad in that general audiences will be more accepting of it due to its lighter tone, regardless of quality. Expecting around $900m.

If WB stumbles through 2017 with two more sub-billion dollar films that critics don't like the DCEU is effectively over.

Aquaman and Batman are both filming in a couple of months (before WW's release) so it's not the final nail in the coffin. Most are expecting those to be far and away the best films in the DCEU due to Wan and Affleck.

I doubt WB is expecting more than $600m from WW, but if JL underperforms then there will be some major changes.
 

Cheebo

Banned
In terms of effectively over I don't mean shut down completely. I think the most realistic outcome would be a major retooling and soft reboot as primarily Batman centric franchise.

The idea of a TDK 4 is never happening, if Nolan and Bale told WB they wanted to do another WB would move heaven and earth to do it DCEU be damned no question at all. But Nolan would never come back anways so it isn't really an option.
 
Nolan basically has carte blanche at this point considering a stupid 3 and a half hour space fart movie made almost 700 mil
 

kswiston

Member
I would say the outlook for $750+M looks like this:



That's a pretty great line-up of blockbusters from a BO perspective. Looking at the release schedule, though, August looks horrendous this year.

My take on your list

Guaranteed (The ones I am most confident on)
Fate of the Furious
Transformers: The Last Knight
Despicable Me 3
Justice League
Star Wars: Episode 8

Very Likely (I would say yes in a prediction thread)
Guardians of the Galaxy 2
Beauty and the Beast
Spider-Man: Homecoming

Decent Chance (I would say maybe in a prediction thread)
War for the Planets of the Apes
Pirates of the Caribbean 5
Thor: Ragnarok
Wonder Woman

It could happen (I would say probably not in a prediction thread)
Coco
Lego Batman

Long shot (aka Deadpool/Gravity 2017 edition if it hits $750M)
Logan
Kong: Skull Island
Dunkirk
Monster Trucks
jk
 

Cheebo

Banned
If Nolan wanted to do a DCEU movie in which every DC in character died in the first act and only the Jospeh Gordon Levitt BatBoy dude lived WB would kiss his feet and ask him how much money he wants.
 

Schlorgan

Member
If Nolan wanted to do a DCEU movie in which every DC in character died in the first act and only the Jospeh Gordon Levitt BatBoy dude lived WB would kiss his feet and ask him how much money he wants.

The sequel to Inception is the DCEU all being one of DiCaprio's dreams.
 
My take on your list
I feel like Dunkirk deserves better than long shot odds considering Nolan's last two original films averaged $500M overseas. That's a hell of a pedigree.

I'm also ready to say right here and now Beauty and the Beast will be in the top 3 highest grossing films of the year.
 

Schlorgan

Member
Long shot (aka Deadpool/Gravity 2017 edition if it hits $750M)
Monster Trucks
jk

So by jk you mean that Monster Trucks is guaranteed, right?
;p

If we're lucky, Nolan will come back and do Batman Beyond with Old Bale teaching Tom Holland how to be Batman.
 

kswiston

Member
I feel like Dunkirk deserves better than long shot odds considering Nolan's last two original films averaged $500M overseas. That's a hell of a pedigree.

I'm also ready to say right here and now Beauty and the Beast will be in the top 3 highest grossing films of the year.

I have a hard time seeing it over Interstellar, and that was helped out by $123M from China, which is very unlikely to happen for a EU theatre WW2 picture. It would have to perform like Saving Private Ryan adjusted for inflation. The markets most interested in a European WW2 film are also the ones that have had the least growth since SPR.
 

Cheebo

Banned
I feel like Dunkirk deserves better than long shot odds considering Nolan's last two original films averaged $500M overseas. That's a hell of a pedigree.

I'm also ready to say right here and now Beauty and the Beast will be in the top 3 highest grossing films of the year.
Those were sci-fi films with big name stars. This is a period piece British war drama with no stars.
 

kswiston

Member
Weekend Actuals are up. The 4-day weekend numbers are below. It seems like Monday was underestimated for most films.

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I have a hard time seeing it over Interstellar, and that was helped out by $123M from China, which is very unlikely to happen for a EU theatre WW2 picture. It would have to perform like Saving Private Ryan adjusted for inflation. The markets most interested in a European WW2 film are also the ones that have had the least growth since SPR.
True, but Dunkirk's getting a bigger push than any WW2 film since Pearl Harbor. It got a teaser a year in advance and an IMAX preview; WB's treating this like a major event film

Those were sci-fi films with big name stars. This is a period piece British war drama with no stars.
True Detective didn't turn Matthew McConaughey into a big name, and we also spent last page talking about how star power doesn't matter.

Weekend Actuals are up. The 4-day weekend numbers are below. It seems like Monday was underestimated for most films.
Really not impressed with Rogue One's hold this weekend. There's a strong possibility Sing is above it this coming weekend.
 

kswiston

Member
True, but Dunkirk's getting a bigger push than any WW2 film since Pearl Harbor. It got a teaser a year in advance and an IMAX preview; WB's treating this like a major event film

As ever, I'm open to being wrong.

Really not impressed with Rogue One's hold this weekend. There's a strong possibility Sing is above it this coming weekend.

I agree. I had the 3-day at $59M based on Wednesday.
 

Anth0ny

Member
Is the new Transformers being filmed in China again? Isn't that partly why the last one ended up making so much even though domestically they're down every film?
 

duckroll

Member
Is the new Transformers being filmed in China again? Isn't that partly why the last one ended up making so much even though domestically they're down every film?

No China this time. Will probably still do gangbusters in China. The growing market in China is the main reason these films do better and better.
 

kswiston

Member
I remember you saying 233 gives it the best legs for a CBM in 2016.

Haha. Good memory.

It needs $233,188,096 to take that title. I think Disney would have to give it a late run expansion for that to happen, and they don't seem to do that much these days. That Christmas drop was a killer.
 
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