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Wkd BO 12•30•16-01•02•16 - New Year, same old 'One' as Sing continues back-up

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El Topo

Member
Is a 54% RT score and $750m ww gross for Wonder Woman a safe prediction?

I have a sub-400m avatar bet going. I admit that is pretty pessimistic, but at the very least I'm sure it's not going to gross nearly as much as Suicide Squad.
WW1 prequel? I just can't see that do anything even close to $750m. The cast is not exactly impressive either and it doesn't really scream "must see blockbuster" to me yet.

Fast & Furious has a multi-cultural cast, while Black Panther is looking to be a primarily black one. I do think that'll make a difference, we'll just have to wait and see how big that is.

True. It could make a difference, we'll know in 2018. Maybe I'm overly optimistic because it's Marvel.
 

Schlorgan

Member
I think it'll be up RT-wise from the last two, even if it's not "Fresh."
The cynic in me can see people giving it pity scores similar to Ghostbusters. Goodness, I really hope this movie doesn't turn into a mess of politics like that movie did.
 

kswiston

Member
I have a sub-400m avatar bet going. I admit that is pretty pessimistic, but at the very least I'm sure it's not going to gross nearly as much as Suicide Squad.

Fan4stic is the only post Avengers Marvel/DC superhero film to miss $400M, so chances are you will be making an avatar change this summer.

People thought white washing was because of American audiences when in reality it's because of Asia and Europe. really sucks.

At least Moana was able to bump off Pearl Harbor as the highest grossing film set in Hawaii :p
 

Koodo

Banned
People thought white washing was because of American audiences when in reality it's because of Asia and Europe. really sucks.
It may (or may not) be worse in those regions, but America has the same racial issues. Hollywood has certainly whitewashed countless American movies about American events aimed at American audiences (recent example: the pungent Stonewall).
 

Schlorgan

Member
What would be really fun to watch is if it doesn't beat Doctor Strange.

What would be REALLY fun to watch is if it doesn't beat Thor: The Dark World.
 

3N16MA

Banned
Oh come on. It's a spin off for us, for the audience at large it's a Star Wars movie. The big drop off suggests TFA's number was super inflated due to hype, and interest in the franchise has cooled off a bit.

I'm curious to see what VIII's numbers will be.

I think the general audience is walking into this film knowing what it is. This is not episode 8 and the BO of that film will prove it. It may not match the last film in total gross but it will easily top Rogue One because the general audience will recognize what it is.

The only MCU films to hit 1B have been Avengers films, Civil War (Avengers 2.5), and IM3. How many MCU films where the main cast is mostly new characters have hit 1B?
 

Schlorgan

Member
The Force Awakens was a cultural event, Rogue One was not. Episode VIII will be an event as well, coming out in the year of the 40th anniversary of the franchise; no way it does less than $1.5b.
 
Where's Wonder Woman going to get all that money? Isn't her profile in Europe and other markets much smaller than it is in North America?

Is Belgium a secret Chris Pine hot bed?
 
Where's Wonder Woman going to get all that money? Isn't her profile in Europe and other markets much smaller than it is in North America?

Is Belgium a secret Chris Pine hot bed?

WW is practically 100% unknown in mainland europe and i guess anywhere outside the us.
i doubt it will matter much though, it's not like anybody ever heard of GoTG, Antman, Dr. Strange, Iron Man...
 

Angel_DvA

Member
WW is practically 100% unknown in mainland europe.
i doubt it will matter much though, it's not like anybody ever heard of GoTG, Antman, Dr. Strange, Iron Man...

I know WW for sure but I'll never, ever, see her as a main character potential, she's a sidekick type of character to me, to be honest, I'm not interested following her story at all, I'd rather see Harley Quinn solo movie instead.
 
Wonder Woman is known in Europe. I don't know where people get the idea that she's not, she's easily the most well known and iconic female superhero around. People obviously don't know much about her, if anything, but have probably never read a comic about her, but she's a known character. Hell, even if she wasn't, she was introduced in Superman v. Batman now, so everyone who didn't at least probably googled her at some point after that.

WW is going to ride on iconism, a well-received part in BvS (some didn't like her, I know, but general consensus seems to be she was liked, or at least intriguing enough for people to want to see more), and being the first true solo female super hero film not attached to another character. Movie will do fine.
 

DeathyBoy

Banned
higher than bvs

lel

would be pleasantly surprised if wonder woman does ant man numbers at this point

To be fair, if it's actually a good film then the ceiling is scary high.

And I may be underselling it, but y'all jokers are crazy if you think WW is bottoming out at Ant-Man levels. Six months after BVS, Suicide Squad got even worse reviews and topped 700 million worldwide.
 
Box Office is the last thing I would be pessimistic on for WW. It's not going to break a billion, but $700M feels reasonable even if the movie is the pits.

The DC main characters are just more iconic than Marvel, with the exception of Spider-Man, and if the quality was there the movies would easily gross over a billion.
 
To be fair, if it's actually a good film then the ceiling is scary high.

And I may be underselling it, but y'all jokers are crazy if you think WW is bottoming out at Ant-Man levels. Six months after BVS, Suicide Squad got even worse reviews and topped 700 million worldwide.

SS had brilliant marketing, charismatic leads, batman and the joker.

WW has one has none of that.
 

El Topo

Member
Fan4stic is the only post Avengers Marvel/DC superhero film to miss $400M, so chances are you will be making an avatar change this summer.

I know very well that I'm very pessimistic on this matter. Rest assured if WW is a success despite the setting (WW1), concept (detached prequel), cast and (in my opinion) look I will be very happy.

Edit:
Do we have any budget estimates for Wonder Woman? The one provided at Wikipedia seems a bit low.
 
SS had brilliant marketing, charismatic leads, batman and the joker.

WW has one has none of that.

WW has an iconic figure larger than any character in SS (besides Batman and Joker, but each are barely in the movie, and Batman wasn't in the marketing at all), and being the first solo female superhero film of the modern era, coming off a movie where she was well-received and garnered interest. The marketing may not be 'brilliant,' but nothing about it has been ill-received outside people super pessimistic about the DCEU in general thinking it will suck. The trailers have all mostly been well-received from what I can tell, and that movie is a direct lead-in for Justice League.

So, yeah, WW has enough. It'll do fine.
 

Schlorgan

Member
Can I just say that I'm really excited for the review thread? Watching the meltdown on either side as the scores come in sounds like so much fun.

On an unrelated note, Wiki has Rings' budget at $33 million. Seems a bit high since there aren't a lot of big names in it (Vincent D'Onofrio is the biggest).
Edit: The original movie in 2002 had a $48 million budget and the sequel in 2005 had a $50 million budget, so I guess that franchise has always been nuts.
 
Wonder Woman is known in Europe. I don't know where people get the idea that she's not, she's easily the most well known and iconic female superhero around.

No, that would be Mary Magdalena. Origin continent of Roman-Catholicism and all.

As for 'wonder woman', she's pretty much only known as a joke. Sexism is quite well and alive, but over the years I've never encountered anyone taking that character seriously. Margaret Thatcher, sure. Queen Elizabeth? Aw yeah. Wonder woman? Who?
That character is neither a role model nor an interesting character in its own like bats and supes are, so there is basically nobody saying "we need this" here. We have actual queens here, we're good on the possible female role model, even if most of those functions are ceremonial in parliamentary democracies.

The only reason we would see it is because there would be nothing else around, it would marketed, we already saw her in BvS, or it was specifically marketed around 'female lead' but that's kind of silly since those are quite common in euro (indy) productions. Which is not to say it's not a factor (as far as major action movies go), but it won't be significant vector for getting people to see it in cinemas.

It is not going to do anything special outside of the US unless it's balls-to-the-walls crazy or something. But considering BvS, it will probably do similar or slightly better than expected. If it's trash like BvS, the word of mouth is going to kill it dead, and it's going to bomb hard like F4 did, making a sub-400 million result possible (but not likely). If it's decent enough, 500 million ww should be doable.
However, the damage done by BvS is going to be a factor. WoM stopped that movie in its tracks, and a different kind of audience -oddly enough- brought up Suicide Squad as a contender. That latter audience, the hot topic crowd, will probably not show for WW, so if you know the vector that WoM had on BvS, you can take the expected number on WW and apply that vector to it, which should give a reasonable estimate of how it will do if it's similarly received.
 
People really expect the Mummy to suck that much ass?

oh yeah. Nothing about it looks compelling and the 'Cruise movie' has moved past its prime. I like him as an actor when he's being challenged, but with Jack Reacher bombing, and other projects not really rolling in that Prime Cruise money, it would be foolish to believe this movie -that nobody asked for- is going to do much of anything.
You could say... Ethan... is low on Thetan. *yeeeeaaah*

And while we may today question the choices of the previous remake in terms of racial relations, at least that movie had fun characters (and Rachel Weiss) and some pretty exciting visual framing in it, that was used extensively in the marketing for it.
This one? None of that showed. So you know, why would anyone pay for that?

I've already said this before (previous thread, I think) but this movie is going to bomb hard. Willing to bet on that one too, since there is no hidden variable there like Suicide Squad. Unless China didn't see the Fraser remake, then they might kinda Warcraft-like save it, but that's a long shot.
 
No, that would be Mary Magdalena. Origin continent of Roman-Catholicism and all.

Mary Magdalena is a not a costumed superhero, you know very well what I was talking about.

As for 'wonder woman', she's pretty much only known as a joke. Sexism is quite well and alive, but over the years I've never encountered anyone taking that character seriously. Margaret Thatcher, sure. Queen Elizabeth? Aw yeah. Wonder woman? Who?
That character is neither a role model nor an interesting character in its own like bats and supes are, so there is basically nobody saying "we need this" here. We have actual queens here, we're good on the possible female role model, even if most of those functions are ceremonial in parliamentary democracies.

The only reason we would see it is because there would be nothing else around, it would marketed, we already saw her in BvS, or it was specifically marketed around 'female lead' but that's kind of silly since those are quite common in euro (indy) productions. Which is not to say it's not a factor (as far as major action movies go), but it won't be significant vector for getting people to see it in cinemas.

Yeah, okay, yet none of this has anything to do with anything I was talking about haha. Talk about a big ass stretch.

It is not going to do anything special outside of the US unless it's balls-to-the-walls crazy or something. But considering BvS, it will probably do similar or slightly better than expected. If it's trash like BvS, the word of mouth is going to kill it dead, and it's going to bomb hard like F4 did, making a sub-400 million result possible (but not likely). If it's decent enough, 500 million ww should be doable.
However, the damage done by BvS is going to be a factor. WoM stopped that movie in its tracks, and a different kind of audience -oddly enough- brought up Suicide Squad as a contender. That latter audience, the hot topic crowd, will probably not show for WW, so if you know the vector that WoM had on BvS, you can take the expected number on WW and apply that vector to it, which should give a reasonable estimate of how it will do if it's similarly received.

WW was one of the more well-received things of BvS, so WoM around that is actually good for WW. But whatever, we'll see. And lol, at thinking the 'hot topic crowd' is what elevated SS to where it got. Guess some of ya'll are still in some real denial that a lot people legitimately enjoyed that movie.
 

BLACKLAC

Member
May 26

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Baywatch


Jun 2

Wonder Woman, Captain Underpants, Lady Macbeth

Jun 9

The Mummy

Jun 16

Cars 3, The Book of Henry, Rock That Body

I got WW sub 500. Capt Underpants is coming for that ass.
 
Good effort Star Wars, better luck next time.
YN4AMq2.gifhttp:

Implied avatar quote.
 
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