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Wkd Box Office 01•01-03•16 - Hate flows through BO as TFA eyes all-time DOM record

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A

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
Here's a thing i didn't know:
Inflation-adjusted prices, if you consider recent-ish films (1975+, basically, since SW came out), the top ten is
Star Wars
ET
Titanic
Empire Strikes Back
Avatar
ROTJ.
Jurassic Park
TPM
The Lion King
Raiders of the Lost Ark
And 11th at the moment, TFA.
Half the list is Lucasfilm already, and soon will be Star Wars. (OT+TPM+TFA)
We could reasonably see a world where the list is 6-7 Star Wars out of 10.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
strafer said:
Sam best role is in Rogue tho...the aussie killer croc movie

vlcsnap-2012-05-31-16h23m51s123-1024x576.png
Click to expand...

He was legitimately good in this. The movie's not bad either.
 
R

Ridley327

Member
SCULLIBUNDO said:
Does it freak you guys out that if you give Worthington an authentic American accent that he can't currently pull off that he would become indistinguishable from Pratt?

Dudes are secret twins.
Click to expand...

Jesus, I didn't think you could smoke unobtainium, too.

I will vouch for Worthington being more than fine in Rogue. That being said,
I did cheer a bit in my head when they came across his mostly eaten corpse later in the film.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Branduil said:
That's true, although I assume a good portion of that $57m would have been distributed to the rest of the weekend if the Thursday previews didn't exist.

Monday's number should be really interesting.
Click to expand...

Actually, Im not so sure. It doesnt seem like a coincidence that first weekend minus previews for Avengers, Jurassic World, and The Force Awakens were all within like 1% of each other. You can argue an extra few million on each of the days but things were running near capacity (or at least near a capacity that can reasonably expected. You arent going to have theatres run and sell out 24 hours a day). I dont see how the rest of the weekend would have absorbed nearly 20m a day on top of what was already record or near record daily grosses.
 
D

Dead

well not really...yet
guek said:
It's really quite remarkable how consistently you have objectionable opinions. Saying Pratt isn't anything special is one thing but so bad he makes Worthington look good? Yeesh
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Sorry. I'll make sure to slobber over whatever piece of shit his name is on next.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
Dead said:
Sorry. I'll make sure to slobber over whatever piece of shit his name is on next.
Click to expand...

I can't tell if you just really hate Pratt or you just really love Avatar.

By the way, Everwood and Parks and Rec were fantastic. Thought Galaxy was great as well.
 
B

Branduil

Member
kswiston said:
Actually, Im not so sure. It doesnt seem like a coincidence that first weekend minus previews for Avengers, Jurassic World, and The Force Awakens were all within like 1% of each other. You can argue an extra few million on each of the days but things were running near capacity (or at least near a capacity that can reasonably expected. You arent going to have theatres run and sell out 24 hours a day). I dont see how the rest of the weekend would have absorbed nearly 20m a day on top of what was already record or near record daily grosses.
Click to expand...

Well, I'm assuming in this hypothetical with no technically-Thursday screenings we still have midnight screenings, right? Deathly Hallows got like $43 million from those, so yeah... and TFA missed the Saturday record too, so it could have squeezed in a few million more there.
 
D

Dead

well not really...yet
rjinaz said:
I can't tell if you just really hate Pratt or you just really love Avatar.

By the way, Everwood and Parks and Rec were fantastic. Thought Galaxy was great as well.
Click to expand...
Neither. Pratt is great in Parks and Rec, good in GotG but total Shit in Jurassic World. Avatar isn't my favorite movie or anything, though I do think it's a far stronger blockbuster than most of the crap released since, and Sam Worthington isn't amazing by any measure but he's clearly not bad in that movie and shows actual life and joi de vivre in that movie unlike Pratt in JW
 
R

Ridley327

Member
Alrus said:
Well Pratt was terrible in JW but that's because of the godawful writing more than his acting .
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Yeah, the impression I got that is they got a good cast for the film and gave them a rather bad script to try and work through. Arguably, that's not a tremendous step down from the previous films, but it sounds like Trevorrow had no idea what to do with his actors, either.
 
V

ViewtifulJC

Banned
One of the most amazing things about JW is how they can make Chris Pratt completely charmless. A total bore who's always right about everything.
 
D

Dead

well not really...yet
ViewtifulJC said:
One of the most amazing things about JW is how they can make Chris Pratt completely charmless. A total bore who's always right about everything.
Click to expand...
To top that, Colin Treverrow is gonna get Boyega to turn in a Lucas prequel era level performance in Ep 9
 
R

Ridley327

Member
Dead said:
Colin Treverrow is gonna get Boyega to turn in a Lucas prequel era level performance in Ep 9
Click to expand...

It's weird, since it's not like he was terrible with either Mark Duplass or Aubrey Plaza in Safety Not Guaranteed. I guess the complexities of blockbuster filmmaking made him have selective skill regression or something.
 
A

Anth0ny

Member
Aureon said:
Here's a thing i didn't know:
Inflation-adjusted prices, if you consider recent-ish films (1975+, basically, since SW came out), the top ten is
Star Wars
ET
Titanic
Empire Strikes Back
Avatar
ROTJ.
Jurassic Park
TPM
The Lion King
Raiders of the Lost Ark
And 11th at the moment, TFA.
Half the list is Lucasfilm already, and soon will be Star Wars. (OT+TPM+TFA)
We could reasonably see a world where the list is 6-7 Star Wars out of 10.
Click to expand...

Besides avatar and tpm that's a great list. Ah well.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Ridley327 said:
It's weird, since it's not like he was terrible with either Mark Duplass or Aubrey Plaza in Safety Not Guaranteed. I guess the complexities of blockbuster filmmaking made him have selective skill regression or something.
Click to expand...

I don't even know if it's that. I think it's just that what they wanted from Owen as a character wasn't a clean enough split from what we'd seen Pratt do before. Basically, if he was gonna be a stoic hardass, they needed to really push that. And if he was gonna be closer to Peter Quill, they needed to go that way, too.

But as he's written, Owen is in this weird tweener area where you're always waiting for the full Pratt that's never coming.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
Dead said:
Neither. Pratt is great in Parks and Rec, good in GotG but total Shit in Jurassic World. Avatar isn't my favorite movie or anything, though I do think it's a far stronger blockbuster than most of the crap released since, and Sam Worthington isn't amazing by any measure but he's clearly not bad in that movie and shows actual life and joi de vivre in that movie unlike Pratt in JW
Click to expand...

Ah well fair enough.
 
T

TAJ

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
Aureon said:
Here's a thing i didn't know:
Inflation-adjusted prices, if you consider recent-ish films (1975+, basically, since SW came out), the top ten is
Star Wars
ET
Titanic
Empire Strikes Back
Avatar
ROTJ.
Jurassic Park
TPM
The Lion King
Raiders of the Lost Ark
And 11th at the moment, TFA.
Half the list is Lucasfilm already, and soon will be Star Wars. (OT+TPM+TFA)
We could reasonably see a world where the list is 6-7 Star Wars out of 10.
Click to expand...

That list is wrong.
I only did the math on two of the movies, but...

If you take the original box office take of ESB and adjust for 1980 dollars, then adjust the rerelease for 1982 dollars and adjust the Special Edition for 1997 dollars you get around $735 million.
Avatar is around $840 million adjusted.
Yet ESB is ahead of Avatar on that list.
 
K

kswiston

Member
TAJ said:
That list is wrong.
I only did the math on two of the movies, but...

If you take the original box office take of ESB and adjust for 1980 dollars, then adjust the rerelease for 1982 dollars and adjust the Special Edition for 1997 dollars you get $732 million.
Avatar is around $840 million adjusted.
Yet ESB is ahead of Avatar on that list.
Click to expand...

Did you use actual inflation or average ticket inflation?
 
A

AlphaSnake

...and that, kids, was the first time I sucked a dick for crack
Foreign totals on BoxOfficeMojo are still 1 week out of date, and markets such as China haven't got the movie just yet.

I expect it'll get close to $2B foreign with times, and if they do a re-release with some additional footage, it may surpass it.
 
M

Markitron

Is currently staging a hunger strike outside Gearbox HQ while trying to hate them to death
Are there any educated estimates of what it will make in China floating around?
 
T

TAJ

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
kswiston said:
The adjusted for inflation list isnt really adjusted for inflation. Its a pseudo-proxy for admissions that doesnt take anything but annual change in average ticket cost into consideration.
Click to expand...

Ok. Except that list (so far) seems to line up with using actual inflation but just applying the inflation from the year of the original release to all of the rereleases.
Speaking of which, I don't think I've ever seen real adjusted numbers for Gone With The Wind. Everyone lumps together all of the sales before the '80s in one number.
 
K

kswiston

Member
TAJ said:
Ok. Except that list (so far) seems to line up with using actual inflation but just applying the inflation from the original release to all of the rereleases.
Speaking of which, I don't think I've ever seen real adjusted numbers for Gone With The Wind. Everyone lumps together all of the sales before the '80s in one number.
Click to expand...

The list is bullshit, especially for films before the late 70s. I think I have talked about it 3-4 times in the past couple of years.

It gives you a very rough idea of what the top attended films were, but the adjusted values and ranking are not accurate outside of a brief period of time stretching from about E.T. to around 2007. Before that you have multiple undocumented re-releases for any noteworthy film bumping up totals, along with road shows, drive ins, etc. After that you have to deal with IMAX, Premium Large Format screens, 3D, etc messing things up.
 
B

BumRush

Member
Markitron said:
Are there any educated estimates of what it will make in China floating around?
Click to expand...

Honestly, it's so unknown right now. Some things (surveys, etc) point to it being huge (which could result in $100M+ opening weekend) while others point to star wars not really being that important in china. It's such an interesting piece of this puzzle.

To answer your later question, AoU and JW made 240M and 228M in china.
 
M

Markitron

Is currently staging a hunger strike outside Gearbox HQ while trying to hate them to death
K

kswiston

Member
BumRush said:
Honestly, it's so unknown right now. Some things (surveys, etc) point to it being huge (which could result in $100M opening weekend) while others point to star wars not really being that important in china. It's such an interesting piece of this puzzle.
Click to expand...

The $100M opening weekend number that was floating around was also bullshit most likely. Star Wars opens on a Saturday. It would pretty much need a record 2-day gross to hit that number. Actual Chinese analysts seem to be predicting around 300 RMB with is around $45M. If it overperforms, you might see $60-70M.

Markitron said:
According to this article, 300m seems a popular estimate.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-star-wars-is-848425
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That was a month ago. Presales have been trailing Age of Ultron since they opened for purchase, and will fall behind Furious 7 as of tomorrow. Also, all of Asia underperformed vs early forecasts.
 
M

Markitron

Is currently staging a hunger strike outside Gearbox HQ while trying to hate them to death
BumRush said:
With the amount that Avengers 2 made (240) plus the recent Star Wars marketing push in China, I could see 300. Furious 7 made 390 though lol so I have no idea.
Click to expand...

That explains why it's so high on the WW BO chart. I though it was enjoyable enough, but god damn that WW BO makes no sense.
 
B

BumRush

Member
kswiston said:
The $100M opening weekend number that was floating around was also bullshit most likely. Star Wars opens on a Saturday. It would pretty much need a record 2-day gross to hit that number. Actual Chinese analysts seem to be predicting around 300 RMB with is around $45M. If it overperforms, you might see $60-70M.
Click to expand...

That makes a lot more sense. I wonder how much WOM from America, Europe, etc means in China in the more internet-friendly age. Anyone with a computer in china can go look and see that a) it's breaking sales records and b) it's crushing reviews.

Quick math:

In 2013, 5 films made 100M+ in China. In 2014, 11 and in 2015, 18. That market is growing sooooo fast which makes TFA predictions so tough. It could do 200 or it could crush exprctations?
 
D

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
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