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[Subitai]

http://www.nbcnews.com/#/politics/first-read/obamas-presidency-ropes-again-n134441

Obama has lost the confidence of the American people (again), but this time it is even harder to see how he will get it back.

Our brand-new NBC/WSJ poll shows Obama’s overall job-approval rating at 41%, a three-point drop from two months ago. His foreign-policy handling has declined to 37%, his all-time low. His fav/unfav numbers are back underwater (41%-45%) after being in the positive territory in April (44%-41%). And perhaps most troubling of all for Obama, 54% of Americans believe that he no longer can lead the country and get the job done for the remainder of his term.

Our NBC/WSJ poll was crafted before the instability in Iraq grabbed headlines, so it doesn’t contain questions on that subject (though we will have Iraq data in a few days). It also was conducted before the United States arrested a suspect in the 2012 attack on the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, Libya. Still, it shows an American public that has grown dissatisfied with President Obama on foreign policy and national-security decisions. In addition to his foreign-policy handling dropped to 37%, Americans -- by a 44%-30% margin -- disagree with the Obama administration’s decision to secure the release of U.S. Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl in exchange for five imprisoned Taliban fighters. And respondents are evenly divided if the details of Bergdahl’s disappearance from his base in Afghanistan matters in the U.S. decision to secure his release: 47% say the details matter, while 46% say they don’t. The poll also shows that 59% oppose closing the Guantanamo Bay prison for terror suspects, which is up seven points since 2009.

However, Americans are even less satisfied with the GOP.

Here is something important to consider: Republicans are in worse shape now than they were four years ago, too. Just 29% of respondents have a favorable view of the GOP, versus 45% who have an unfavorable view. (By comparison, the Democratic Party’s fav/unfav rating is 38% positive, 40% negative.) Views of the Tea Party are even worse, with 22% seeing it in a favorable light and 41% in a negative one. In June 2010, the Tea Party’s fav/unfav was at a positive 34%-31%. That perhaps helps explain why Democrats in our current NBC/WSJ poll have a two-point advantage on congressional preference, 45%-43%, despite the brutal numbers for Obama. And then there’s this BIG difference: At this point in 2010, Democrats had a narrow congressional-preference lead with women (44%-43%), and the GOP had a significant advantage with white women (51%-36%). Now? Democrats hold a double-digit with all women (50%-38%), and white women are pretty much a jump ball (GOP 45%, Dems 44%). As we’ve said before, female voters -- and female candidates -- are likely to decide the outcome of the midterm elections and specifically control of the U.S. Senate. And right now, the GOP has some work to do here.

Anyway for me, the real indictment politically of Obama is that he has completely undermined the enormous politically advantage he has given that the Republicans are in such disarray.

When it comes to President Obama, one other set of numbers stand out to us: 50% say his administration is competent managing the federal government, and an equal 50% don’t think it has been competent. To put that finding into perspective, when the same question was asked about George W. Bush -- after Hurricane Katrina and the increased violence in Iraq -- 53% said his administration was competent vs. 46% who said it wasn’t. So Bush fared BETTER on this question than Obama. That has to sting for the folks in the West Wing. But this is the result of the V.A. on top of the initial health care web site debacle; and for some, the lost IRS emails of Lois Lerner end up either as a conspiracy or incompetency… and it ends up begging the question, what other agencies are messed up? And could any federal agency look efficient after weeks of scrutiny?

Maybe there is something to the IRS targeting? Losing emails? Really? That has gotten the attention of people who were ignoring before. Anyway, that's for another thread though.


For those who might not realize it, I'll be explicit: Bush's presidency was over after Katrina and it was reflected in the polls. Short of a hot war breaking out, Obama's presidency probably is too.

I made this thread because I GAF has really become a pretty liberal bubble and no longer has any sense, not only of conservatives, centrists, and independents, but of the fact that enough of Obama’s policies are bad enough to prompt Americans in general no longer support him.

To put it another way, the people required to get his poll numbers so bad aren’t watching Fox News or reading Drudge. They’re people, unlike us, who are so busy that they barely have time to follow the news much less politics. Somehow, Obama has managed to reach them with policies/policy-results that have made them turn against him. If the Bergdahl swap wasn’t the straw that broke the camel’s back, the mess unfolding in Iraq that is going to make gas prices spike this summer probably is.

 

[Dan]

To put that finding into perspective, when the same question was asked about George W. Bush -- after Hurricane Katrina and the increased violence in Iraq -- 53% said his administration was competent vs. 46% who said it wasn’t.

Unfortunately a lot of people agreed with the feds ignoring New Orleans...

 

[JesseEwiak]

Of course, these numbers don't really matter. If Congress miraculously goes to the Democrat's this fall, a lot will get done, and Obama's numbers will probably improve. If Congress stays the same, then about the same will get done, and Obama's number will stay flat until he leaves office. If Congress goes fully Republican, absolutely nothing gets done and his numbers drop even more, but probably don't effect Hillary all that much.

Sure, this is a bad poll for Obama, but if his numbers are dropping 'cause he got a POW rescued, Iraq is falling apart because of Republican incompetence in the first place, and IRS scandals that aren't actually scandals, then the problem is the populace, not the President.

 

[FreezeSSC]

Yeah im not voting for him again.

 

[Delusibeta]

I made this thread because I GAF has really become a pretty liberal bubble and no longer has any sense, not only of conservatives, centrists, and independents, but of the fact that enough of Obama’s policies are bad enough to prompt Americans in general no longer support him.

To put it another way, the people required to get his poll numbers so bad aren’t watching Fox News or reading Drudge. They’re people, unlike us, who are so busy that they barely have time to follow the news much less politics. Somehow, Obama has managed to reach them with policies/policy-results that have made them turn against him. If the Bergdahl swap wasn’t the straw that broke the camel’s back, the mess unfolding in Iraq that is going to make gas prices spike this summer probably is.

u wat m8?

The reason Obama's been a bit of a lame duck is the Republican party stopping play at literally every opportunity they have. The polls reflect this. Honestly, I expect Hillary Clinton to win with a landslide in 2016 and the Republicans double down on their failing tactics and await their party's death by demographic change within the following decade.

 

[Darklord]

Yeah im not voting for him again.

I'm sure 100% of America won't vote for Obama again.

 

[Ferrio]

u wat m8?

The reason Obama's been a bit of a lame duck is the Republican party stopping play at literally every opportunity they have. The polls reflect this. Honestly, I expect Hillary Clinton to win with a landslide in 2016 and the Republicans double down on their failing tactics and await their party's death by demographic change within the following decade.

Republican's plan working exactly as intended too.

Republicans are holding the whole country hostage and it's obamas fault of course.

 

[ivysaur12]

Yeah im not voting for him again.

I don't think anyone is.

 

[Waaghals]

He'll never get reelected at this rate. Dinesh D'Souza had me worried there for a while.

 

[Stumpokapow]

For those who might not realize it, I'll be explicit: Bush's presidency was over after Katrina and it was reflected in the polls. Short of a hot war breaking out, Obama's presidency probably is too.

But all modern presidencies, including Obama's, are over after the second term midterms. The issue isn't not doing things in years 7 and 8 (which is par for the course), it's the failure to be able to get things done in years 5 and 6, and who is to blame for that.

 

[ISOM]

Right wing propaganda and center right mainstream news journalism has won.

 

[akira28]

He should maximize the number of initiatives and executive orders ever put out in his last 2 years. Just make the opposition run laps.

edit: its the fucking Wall Street Journal. what would you expect? this is them being nice.

 

[Blader]

Anyway for me, the real indictment politically of Obama is that he has completely undermined the enormous politically advantage he has given that the Republicans are in such disarray.

What political advantage? Part of the reason Obama is viewed so negatively is because his administration can barely get anything done. The primary reason for that is because the GOP obstructs him at every turn without fail. And the reason for the obstructionism is because of Republican disarray. What you're citing as Obama's chief advantage over the right is actually the main reason for the ineffectiveness and negative perceptions on both sides.

also, let's think about this part for a second:

If the Bergdahl swap wasn’t the straw that broke the camel’s back, the mess unfolding in Iraq that is going to make gas prices spike this summer probably is.

The straw that broke the camel's back here was bringing home an American POW. What exactly does that say about where these negative perceptions of the Obama White House are coming from in the first place?

 

[PhoenixDark]

It's baffling that one can run on all the things government can do, yet have no interest or focus on fixing government. Be it the healthcare.gov disaster, the continued problem with government contracts, and other issues it's not surprising that people think Obama is incompetent.

I'm glad Romney lost but this second term has been embarrassing.

 

[Iolo]

Polling firms treat their own, single poll as being a 100% correct snapshot, when as we all know, polling is most accurate in the aggregate. That's why comparing one poll now to one poll from 2005 is utterly useless other than to grab headlines, and why 538 became so popular. Another poll could come out a week from now with a 5% or more difference.

Anyway, Bush's numbers cratered hard afterward, while we do not yet have data on Obama.

 

[.GqueB.]

I'm sure 100% of America won't vote for Obama again.

I don't think anyone is.

C'mon dudes...

 

[Rhomega Beta]

Yeah im not voting for him again.

Yeah, there goes his third term.

 

[Arksy]

Will the next Senate elections be a bloodbath? I sure hope so.

 

[Damaniel]

I'm sure 100% of America won't vote for Obama again.

But, he'll suspend the Constitution and install himself as king! Just you wait, sheeple....

(Of course, I remember a lot of people saying the same about Bush as well.)

Personally, while Obama's been a pretty good center-right president (though more than a little disappointing to a far left progressive like me), it would take an epic level of fuck-up to reach Bush levels of 'competency'. For all the bad things about the NSA and national security that have gone on over the last few years (and no doubt went on during Bush's term too), in the end, 9/11, the Katrina fuck-up, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the financial crisis all happened on Bush's watch. The ACA (for better or worse), the capture of Bin Laden, the end of the wars and the repeal of DOMA all happened on Obama's watch. Comparing accomplishments, the two aren't even in the same league of competency.

Spoiler

At least Obama will be able to show his face in public after his term is over. Bush knows he fucked up, and (smartly) stays out of the limelight in an attempt to someday salvage his legacy.

 

[speculawyer]

Sure, this is a bad poll for Obama, but if his numbers are dropping 'cause he got a POW rescued, Iraq is falling apart because of Republican incompetence in the first place, and IRS scandals that aren't actually scandals, then the problem is the populace, not the President.

This. People just complain and complain. They want magic to be performed but they don't want to pay for anything.

Stock market has doubled, deficit cut in half, unemployment is down, Bin Laden is dead, GM is alive, domestic oil production is up massively, Benghazi terrorist captured, etc.

But let's complain because Iraq fell apart (but no one wants to really do anything about), some Taliban guys that we couldn't prosecute and would eventually release anyway got traded for schlep POW, and a bunch of fake scandals.

Whatever . . . none of this really matters because he is not up for election again and nothing will get through the House for the rest of his term. We are on gridlock autopilot at this point.

 

[Wilsongt]

But, he'll suspend the Constitution and install himself as king! Just you wait, sheeple....

(Of course, I remember a lot of people saying the same about Bush as well.)

Personally, while Obama's been a pretty good center-right president (though more than a little disappointing to a far left progressive like me), it would take an epic level of fuck-up to reach Bush levels of 'competency'. For all the bad things about the NSA and national security that have gone on over the last few years (and no doubt went on during Bush's term too), in the end, 9/11, the Katrina fuck-up, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the financial crisis all happened on Bush's watch. The ACA (for better or worse), the capture of Bin Laden, the end of the wars and the repeal of DOMA all happened on Obama's watch. Comparing accomplishments, the two aren't even in the same league of competency.

Spoiler

At least Obama will be able to show his face in public after his term is over. Bush knows he fucked up, and (smartly) stays out of the limelight in an attempt to someday salvage his legacy.

Well, that, and the real president at the time, Dick Cheney, has actually stepped up and done all the talking that he made Bush do in the past.

 

[TacticalFox88]

This country suffers from Obama Derangement Syndrome.

 

[Arksy]

Are people ACTUALLY angry they recovered a POW? What the hell is going on over there?

 

[Wilsongt]

This. People just complain and complain. They want magic to be performed but they don't want to pay for anything.

Stock market has doubled, deficit cut in half, unemployment is down, Bin Laden is dead, GM is alive, domestic oil production is up massively, Benghazi terrorist captured, etc.

But let's complain because Iraq fell apart (but no one wants to really do anything about), some Taliban guys that we couldn't prosecute and would eventually release anyway got traded for schlep POW, and a bunch of fake scandals.

Whatever . . . none of this really matters because he is not up for election again and nothing will get through the House for the rest of his term. We are on gridlock autopilot at this point.

Stock Market doesn't really help the average American. Also... GM may be alive... but at this point, I think they wish they were dead given their massive fuck up with the ignition switch. Domestic oil production is up at the cost of the environment...

Also, where are all the high paying jerbs? All of the jobs are just low paying and barely full time. Herp derp.

Are people ACTUALLY angry they recovered a POW? What the hell is going on over there?

Apparently he was a deserter; said Anti-American things on Facebook (supposedly); his father looks like a muslim; we let five HIGH PROFILE TERRORISTS go and they will end up murdering hundreds of billions of people with their very own hands; Obama brought him home and not a Republican.

 

[entremet]

Are people ACTUALLY angry they recovered a POW? What the hell is going on over there?

I think the fact that he was deserter is something that rubs some people the wrong way.

I don't care personally. But just explaining why.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Will the next Senate elections be a bloodbath? I sure hope so.

This next one? Looking like a wash.

The ones in 2016? Republicans gon get fuuuucked.

 

[Wilsongt]

This next one? Looking like a wash.

The ones in 2016? Republicans gon get fuuuucked.

Only in the senate and presidency.

 

[WedgeX]

But, he'll suspend the Constitution and install himself as king! Just you wait, sheeple....

(Of course, I remember a lot of people saying the same about Bush as well.)

Personally, while Obama's been a pretty good center-right president (though more than a little disappointing to a far left progressive like me), it would take an epic level of fuck-up to reach Bush levels of 'competency'. For all the bad things about the NSA and national security that have gone on over the last few years (and no doubt went on during Bush's term too), in the end, 9/11, the Katrina fuck-up, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the financial crisis all happened on Bush's watch. The ACA (for better or worse), the capture of Bin Laden, the end of the wars and the repeal of DOMA all happened on Obama's watch. Comparing accomplishments, the two aren't even in the same league of competency.

Spoiler

At least Obama will be able to show his face in public after his term is over. Bush knows he fucked up, and (smartly) stays out of the limelight in an attempt to someday salvage his legacy.

This. People just complain and complain. They want magic to be performed but they don't want to pay for anything.

Stock market has doubled, deficit cut in half, unemployment is down, Bin Laden is dead, GM is alive, domestic oil production is up massively, Benghazi terrorist captured, etc.

But let's complain because Iraq fell apart (but no one wants to really do anything about), some Taliban guys that we couldn't prosecute and would eventually release anyway got traded for schlep POW, and a bunch of fake scandals.

Whatever . . . none of this really matters because he is not up for election again and nothing will get through the House for the rest of his term. We are on gridlock autopilot at this point.

I like you two.

 

[Elfforkusu]

Domestic national surveillance is the hot button for me. Lost all confidence in the current administration between that and how we're treating whistleblowers and political dissidents.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I don't think people care about the IRS issue or Benghazi outside of the far right. The issue is moreso that there is no positive news being covered by the media right now, the WH just lurches from one "scandal" to the next regardless of how you feel about the story. That endless feedback of negative news plus a floundering economy=bad numbers.

 

[Vermillion]

Are people ACTUALLY angry they recovered a POW? What the hell is going on over there?

1 for 5.

Also the deserter thing.

 

[JesseEwiak]

Will the next Senate elections be a bloodbath? I sure hope so.

I realize you're a Tory/Liberal party supporter, but what positive things do you think will result from a House and Senate totally opposed to everything Obama does?

 

[speculawyer]

1 for 5.

Also the deserter thing.

Israel traded 1027 for 1. But I guess they can do anything.

 

[Lubricus]

Right wing propaganda and center right mainstream news journalism has won.

No, the Snowden affair and Iraq flaring up again happened.

 

[Drakeon]

Only in the senate and presidency.

Wait til 2020, assuming Hillary's first term isn't a complete disaster. When we get a chance to re-draw the beyond fucked district lines for the house in a Presidential election year, the Republicans will lose all relevance for 10 years. And they fucking deserve it for how they've fucking stopped any progress for the past 4 years. Least productive congress in the history of the US.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Are people ACTUALLY angry they recovered a POW? What the hell is going on over there?

I don't think anyone is against 'rescuing American prisoners', it's the 'releasing terrorists' bit they're concerned with.

 

[Moondrop]

Please, please, more rationalizing. So delicious.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

Its funny.. I think Obamas foreign policy is infinitely stronger than Bush's. And if McCain had won, fuck we would have had troops in Syria, Ukraine, and even more in Iraq. We may have even started a conflict with Iran too.

 

[JesseEwiak]

Its funny.. I think Obamas foreign policy is infinitely stronger than Bush's. And if McCain had won, fuck we would have had troops in Syria, Ukraine, and even more in Iraq. We may have even started a conflict with Iran too.

But but the droonnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeeeesssssss!

 

[RustyNails]

Apparently he was a deserter; said Anti-American things on Facebook (supposedly); his father looks like a muslim; we let five HIGH PROFILE TERRORISTS go and they will end up murdering hundreds of billions of people with their very own hands; Obama brought him home and not a Republican.

Yeah this. Obama fumbled with the deal and completely misjudged the reaction of people. Release of ex Taliban veterans coinciding with a lightning strike of ISIS advance in Iraq probably contributed to the perception that it was a bad deal.

Like PD said, it was also one bad news after another that contributed to the perception of an administration being outflanked.

 

[ISOM]

No, the Snowden affair and Iraq flaring up again happened.

Lol if you think the snowden affair caused this. And Iraq flaring up has nothing to do with obama. The george bush administration started the wars and they are the ones who signed the troop withdrawals in 2008. Most of the negative opinions of obama right now can be traced back to right wing propaganda and the mainstream media's right wing tilt as I said.

 

[wildfire]

This. People just complain and complain. They want magic to be performed but they don't want to pay for anything.

Stock market has doubled, deficit cut in half, unemployment is down, Bin Laden is dead, GM is alive, domestic oil production is up massively, Benghazi terrorist captured, etc.

But let's complain because Iraq fell apart (but no one wants to really do anything about), some Taliban guys that we couldn't prosecute and would eventually release anyway got traded for schlep POW, and a bunch of fake scandals.

Whatever . . . none of this really matters because he is not up for election again and nothing will get through the House for the rest of his term. We are on gridlock autopilot at this point.

But those aren't the only reasons people are sliding against Obama.

His administration has allowed NSA to grow in power. Though polls have indicated a minority actually cares about the results of Snowden leaks so that still supports your point that too many American citizens have terrible priorities.

His administration has allowed the telecoms to subjugate the FCC so net neutrality could die in a couple of years. Public reaction is still pending on grass roots efforts of companies that want net neutrality maintained.

The income gap is at its highest since the 80s. Though studies indicate too many former and on the bubble middle income people believe their wealth relative to the rich and poor is better than it actually is. Sheesh there are legitimate reasons to have a problem with Obama's second term but it is hard to refute your assertion about the citizenry.


The most telling clue about skewed priorities is the turn around on Guantanamo.

I guess they'll be vindicated when oil prices go through the roof.

 

[gohepcat]

So what's going to happen when this guy leaves office and things are still ok? Millions more people have healthcare, and we are not at war in the middle east and none of these conspiracies turn out to be anything?

If you play the "Obama is the antichrist" card, and make movies about how fundamentally different the US will be in 2016...what happens when 2016 comes and the guy just leaves office like every other president?

I absolutely agree that people said the same thing about Bush...but...how many times can you play that same card before you just look like an idiot?

 

[Vermillion]

Israel traded 1027 for 1. But I guess they can do anything.

Not the same country/administration.

 

[diehard]

Lol if you think the snowden affair caused this. And Iraq flaring up has nothing to do with obama. The george bush administration started the wars and they are the ones who signed the troop withdrawals in 2008. Most of the negative opinions of obama right now can be traced back to right wing propaganda and the mainstream media's right wing tilt as I said.

Quality trolling, would read again.

 

[wildfire]

I absolutely agree that people said the same thing about Bush...but...how many times can you play that same card before you just look like an idiot?

To be fair most of them aren't the same people, because of party lines.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

But but the droonnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeeeesssssss!

Haha well McCain probably thinks Obama is too reserved and cautious in his use of drones.

 

[ISOM]

Quality trolling, would read again.

Nice argument. It was very informative.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

1 for 5.

Also the deserter thing.

And what do you think we're gonna do with those prisoners when the war is over?

We're not holding them forever, if we are going to broker a deal with the Taliban they are going to get released, probably regardless of a deal or not. They can't be prosecuted, if they could we would have done it already.

The war is winding down, might as well get back our last POW when we have the chance.

Quality trolling, would read again.

Oh, you're the guy that bitches about stuff but never actually says anything. You're really adding to the discussion.

 

[JesseEwiak]

Lol if you think the snowden affair caused this. And Iraq flaring up has nothing to do with obama. The george bush administration started the wars and they are the ones who signed the troop withdrawals in 2008. Most of the negative opinions of obama right now can be traced back to right wing propaganda and the mainstream media's right wing tilt as I said.

Right. If Snowden got drone'd, Obama's numbers would probably go up.

But those aren't the only reasons people are sliding against Obama.

His administration has allowed NSA to grow in power. Though polls have indicated a minority actually cares about the results of Snowden leaks so that still supports your point that too many American citizens have terrible priorities.

I have terrible priorities too, cause yes, if the choice is between Rand Paul and Hillary Clinton, I'll choose Hillary every time.

His administration has allowed the telecoms to subjugate the FCC so net neutrality could die in a couple of years. Public reaction is still pending on grass roots efforts of companies that want net neutrality maintained.

The FCC is an independent agency. Blaming Obama for FCC decisions is like blaming Obama for Supreme Court decisions.

The income gap is at its highest since the 80s. Though studies indicate too many former and on the bubble middle income people believe their wealth relative to the rich and poor is better than it actually is. Sheesh there are legitimate reasons to have a problem with Obama's second term but it is hard to refute your assertion about the citizenry.

If you oppose Obama from the left, sure. But, most of Obama's support isn't coming from drop in the left. It's coming from the center, unfortunately.

The most telling clue about skewed priorities is the turn around on Guantanamo.

I'm not sure what you mean, but Obama can't close Guantanmo, but the GOP won't give him the money to move prisoners to the US.