Big pre written post here so it doesn't take into account some of the deaths.
So I was thinking over what the heck happened D1, and Ive got some ideas.
Firstly, lets think about what scum were thinking about during the day. Chances are, itll be about digging around for information on power roles to decide who to NK. When Seath claimed normal town, they also probably thought it was suspicious. Why claim so early? Based on Seaths wording (thats just how I roll), it sounded like their claim was entirely intended and planned. It honestly didnt feel like something that a random vanilla townie would just do out of the blue. For town, this suggests that they could likely be scum or a Town PR. But for scum...well, theyd know that Seath isnt scum. So then Seath becomes a pretty good target for scum.
But theres even more: Seath had been relatively quiet, but still seemed to be keeping up with the game (a feeling I get based on how they answered my questions). It felt like it could have been because theyre scum, but scum would be thinking that it was because Seath was a power role. But hey, Seaths been pretty suspicious to town as well
for the same exact reasons that scum would think Seaths a PR. So scum probably thought: How about we try to swing votes over to Seath? Maybe we can get enough votes to make them want to claim. Wed probably get enough support from Town to make it work. Turns out it was even better they ended up gathering enough votes to actually cause Seath to be lynched.
So what does this mean? Firstly, it could be that Magnum and/or Retro and/or Scrafty are scum. If only one is scum, then scum has the choice of bussing and shifting votes onto one of the town. Bussing would improve their credibility but sacrifice a member, while shifting votes onto a town would increase suspicion on those that shifted their vote, since both had claimed already. But switching their votes to an unrelated, already suspicious town like Seath would be effectively getting a PR kill for free, while still being able to easily get out of suspicion. Seath was being sketchy for town anyway, so its not so inconceivable for it to be an honest mistake. And theyd be able to use their kill on some of the other suspected town PRs. Or maybe even just someone who has been quiet and under the radar. This is probably a good enough reason to make this play, even if none of Magnum/Retro/Scrafty are actually scum.
Since it seemed like this play had so much value for scum, I feel relatively confident in guessing there were likely one or two scum on that Seath swing. Particularly suspicious in my eyes would be Terra, Salva, and Palmer. Palmer was quite focused on getting a Seath lynch earlier, Salva and Terra voted almost at the same time, which helped the Seath wagon gain traction (as it was only after those two votes that the Seath wagon started speeding up I believe), and Terra and Palmer both were looking to convince town of reasons to vote Seath at a time when Salva had heat.
I would also like to point out Salvas post:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=199210724&postcount=1313
This is reasoning that scum would be thinking as well as town, maybe even more from a scum perspective than a town perspective given that theres nothing here about what Seath did or did not do for Town this was purely based on Seaths ordinary claim, which scum would pretty focused on. Given that I had suspicions of Salva being scum earlier in the day, this doesnt really help his case in my eyes.
Note Matt Attack, RobotNinjaHornet, and Terras responses in contrast. All of them mentioned Seaths contributions to Town (or lack thereof) of being a reason for lynching. Scum wouldnt care about this kind of stuff. Scum would care about the ordinary claim.
Vote: SalvaPot
