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[sangreal]

But I just read in that other thread about Enchant Arm, that the developer is using the HDD to cache.

Says IGN's quoteless translation. We'll have to wait and see. Certainly there are games that will require the drive, such as FFXI, but it seems offline games must not require it.

Using and requiring are two different things.

/Element

I guess Enchant Arm will work without the HDD, just perhaps with longer loads or..?

They seem to be the exact same thing in the context of IGN's translation which was using the disk to stream content on the fly. That doesn't seem like something you can just do at a slower pace for people without a drive. Then again, I don't hold much stock in IGN's article as its quite possible that the hard disk part was their own assumption.

why would they choose to not include the hard drive in the future... it can't be for cost effectiveness seeing that in the future manufacturing the hard drives would be cheaper it would make more sense that in the future they can release consoles with bigger hard drives or add more accessories to system like a remote

I don't necessarily think they will, simply that they want to leave that option open. Certainly having a drive costs more than not.

 

[dark10x]

yep... im not afraid to admit it

want to clearify?

The manufacturing costs associated with hard disk drives do not change in the same fashion as normal products. The manufacturing of a 20gb disk is not going to be significantly different than the costs associated with an 80gb, for example. The current price of the HDD found in the current XBOX likely has not seen any dramatic change, which is why the unit remains so expensive to manufacture despite its age. The small size of the HDD does not mean it will suddenly become cheaper to include.

As HDD manufacturing techniques improve, costs will be reduced, but this applies to all HDDs regardless of size. The point is, they can't rely on the age or size of the product to predict its future costs as those factors do not play a large role.

 

[HyperionX]

yep... im not afraid to admit it

want to clearify?

HDDs tend to gain storage capacity, but price basically stays the same. So if you have a 20GB for $50, in 5 years the 20GB model will be depreciated and you're left with a 200GB model for $50.

EDIT: Beat me to it...

 

[IJoel]

I believe they will include the hard disk. I do think, however, they are trying to remove the dependency of the software on the hard disk in the event they want to, in the future, remanufacture the console and sell it at a premium price. This is one of the things they haven't been able to do with Xbox and the hard disk is very likely one of the main reasons why.

For instance:

2005: Xbox 360 + Hard Disk
2008: Xbox 360 Lite (smaller more refined Xbox 360,) Hard Disk is optional with BC package

By the time they release the Xbox 360 Lite, they could've established themselves selling bigger hard disks as peripherals and it wouldn't be seen as a necessary accessory to get (by this time BC will be really irrelevant as the Xbox 360 library should be quite large.)

 

[----]

My feelings on this issue is if their plans are to yank the HDD out of the system 3-4 years down the line to lower the price to capture more casuals, I don't care. If they plan to remove the HDD within the first 18-24 months then I'll be pissed.

 

[KingJ2002]

I see... thanks for the clearification.

but removing the hard drive in the future when it could be implied as a standard feature to consumers still wouldnt be the best solution.

 

[----]

They could be planning a feature swap. ie. The HD-DVD movie drive in exchange for the 20GB HDD. This way the early adopters who bought the 20GB HDD SKU won't be as angry since at least they got something extra for their money.

 

[KyotoMecca]

MS definitely is hiding something regarding the SKU issue. If you watch the Kikizo interview with Robbie Bach (15:30).

Kikizo: About the HDD.... And are there 2 SKU's?

Bach: We haven't announced anything on the SKU front. Uh umm and probably won't. We have a lot of flexibility there. I think Sony's reconfigured the PS2 probably 6 different times. Uh and so we're just maintaining our flexibility, seeing what the market place wants. We're getting a lot of feedback here at the show from people. The focus right now is the SKU you see here with the headset, the remote, and the wireless controller, and the hard disk.

If it makes any difference I should point out that the context of that quote when he says "probably won't" is that he means "probably won't have more than one SKU". The flow of Qs/As was a little tricky video-wise at that point so there was light editing, but I can tell you, this is what he was talking about.

Whether that helps this mystery or not, I am not quite sure. Probably not, knowing how useless I am.

 

[sangreal]

If it makes any difference I should point out that the context of that quote when he says "probably won't" is that he means "probably won't have more than one SKU". The flow of Qs/As was a little tricky video-wise at that point so there was light editing, but I can tell you, this is what he was talking about.

Whether that helps this mystery or not, I am not quite sure. Probably not, knowing how useless I am.

That reminds me. I was looking for some quotes for one of the previous 50 renditions of this thread and I stumbled accross http://www.dignews.com/feature.php?story_id=9870

Unless that site is yours, it seems they transcribed your interview and claimed it as their own

 

[Vince]

Just to elaborate on Dark10x's post, not to imply that his is incorrect as his posts are allways well written and stated, but the problem with HDD's is not that their costs don't scale with technology, but rather how they scale.

See, HDD's data density per square inch increases at a rate that has, historically, exceeded the progression of Moore's Law. In the last 50 years, the density per sq. inch has seen a 50-million fold increase and with it the cost per bit has dropped immensely, far more than the cost per gate in an ASIC which is bounded by Moore's Law(s).

Where the problem comes in is that a console has a fixed specification (eg. 3.2Ghz Processor that's 250mm2 and a 20GB HDD) which remains static during the 5-10 year life of the console. During this time, the manufacturers will want to reduce costs and for this, Moore's Law kicks ass as for each process drop (eg. 90nm -> 65nm) the actual size of the ASIC is cut in half, thus if you could fit N ICs on a 300mm wafer at 90nm, you can now fit 2N on a 65nm one and the cost per IC is cut in half.

A HDD differs in that it has alot of electro-mechanical baggage whose cost doesn't drop. You have this hard lower bounds on the ability to lower costs because you still need the same servos, read-heads, solenoids and whatever the fuck else is in a HDD. So, while the date denisity will increase at a super-exponential rate, this won't mean shit as you don't extract any fiscal benefit from increasing the storage size in a console; rather you're stuck with providing a drive whose cost gets fixed and evenually may increase slightly as production on that density ramps down.

 

[KyotoMecca]

That reminds me. I was looking for some quotes for one of the previous 50 renditions of this thread and I stumbled accross http://www.dignews.com/feature.php?story_id=9870

Unless that site is yours, it seems they transcribed your interview and claimed it as their own

Both sites participated in and shared the interview. Even videogame media can co-operate sometimes!