+ headstart
- cutting short the current generation possibly too soon?
+ puts pressure on Sony though
- projects moved from X-BOX to Xenon
+ gaining momentum
- possibly no BC...will be a major blow to momentum
+ will focus on a strong launch line up though
- they lose the power edge they had this generation
+ not much of a power difference, in the end, though
- people might be expecting more from the Xenon than MS is willing to pack-in this time
+ if they're smart they'll offer a HD/BC/extra features add-on option to satisfy whiners/naysayers
- Sony hype train
+ counter with Halo 3 announcement, save it for when PS3 launches
+ could get big push from the entertainment industry which could choose HD-DVD over BR since, due to Xenon, HD-DVD will be in a major product before BR (this is suppossing HD-DVD is in Xenon)
+ could get a big push from 3RD parties (especially Western) who want to "even the scales" so that Sony & MS will both have large profitable portions of the market to profit off of (Genisis VS SNES) and so they can use that as a bargaining advantage as MS & Sony will likely go into bidding wars for support/exclussives
+ better footing in online gaming, which should matter more next generation
- they will underestimate Nintendo even moreso than they did this generation, be forwarned, Revolution will not be another purple lunchbox
This comes alot down to games. X-BOX was strong for Tom Clansey games, PC ports, FPS's, sports & Star Wars games. What I expect MS (if they're smart) to have lined up at/near Xenon launch:
Perfect Dark
It's really hard to tell, but I think this has GOT to be a give in. I mean, alot of people would want Halo 3 or whatever, but I think it's more realistic to give Bungie more time on number 3 while letting RARE *finally* step up and do something...they have to have something good to show after all this time.
Madden
EA is gonna support all three equally I think, but with Xenon having a headstart the best version of Madden will be on Xenon (as well as Xenon Live) EA could be finding a new "home" on MS consoles...why...'cos they'll likely port thier new builds/models/engines from what they started on Xenon to PS3 & Revolution...instead of PS2 to X-BOX.
GTA
Instead of porting San Andreas to X-BOX, why not wait 'til Xenon launch and do an online GTA with even better graphics and more hype? That way Take2/RockStar will be saying to Sony: "hey, our price just went up on the next exclussive". 3RD parties will use this time, this launch, to play MS & Sony against each other to bargain *cough*buy*cough* thier games. Don't think they won't, 'cos you know they will.
Splinter Cell
It's a damn garaunteed give-in. Splinter Cell wouldn't be so hyped today without MS/X-BOX, UbiSoft will throw a major Splinter Cell game Xenon's way and I see it coming at/near launch in a big way.
Star Wars Episode III
I could see MS potentially making this title(s) *major* for Xenon. Xenon (with it's headstart) will have the best looking version of a Episode III game and riding off of the movies garaunteed success I can see Lucas Arts & . Factor 5 also displayed alot of interest in working with MS, and KOTOR did well on X-BOX...I see big things for MS & Lucas Arts in the future.
DOOM 3
I think that the X-BOX version will be moved to Xenon's launch. It may still come to X-BOX, but I just see an even better Xenon version in the works for Xenon.
new franchise(s)
This is usually the time for companies to risk new idea's. With the aboved games likely coming at/near launch I can see 3RD parties very willing to cash in on the momentum by filling in the gaps. MS in house will also likely be filling in the other gaps as well. There could be a couple of X-BOX projects also moved to Xenon, which sucks for X-BOX, but could really set Xenon up for an even stronger launch.
So there we go, my assessment of Xenon's launch...good and bad. And if it comes down to games, then I'd say they're gonna do well.