There's still BIG things we don't know about Xenon so we can't say one way or another. At first, I thought the system would be "Microsoft's GAMECUBE" of sorts, now I'm thinking, that if they do things right they can have a Genisis style system on thier hands. The BIG things we don't know which could effect Xenon's chances for better or for worse:
POWER
- If it is significantly in Sony's favor then MS loses one of thier biggest edge's and thusly selling point is lost, not only that, but could PS3's power make ports to Xenon more difficult as well?
+ If there really isn't much difference in power except on paper then only us forum nerds would care, the casuals (who shape this market) won't be as concerned as long as the games look on par with each other on screen
LAUNCH GAMES
- If they can't get heavy commitments early on than the early launch will be veiwed as premature and will cause alot of people to at least wait for PS3 for fear of a bad investment in Xenon, and if the userbase isn't there, they lose thier power "edge" from this generation (wether significant or not, it will be picked on as a negative) and thier "headstart" ends up not giving them any kind of lead before PS3 launches then the whole launching early will be veiwed upon as DC-esque (wether it's true or not, the masses are stupid, they'll believe it)
+ If they do get early & heavy support from the get go then it put's pressure on Sony, could cause them to make mistakes or rush to market and people will compare thier launches to one another and if Xenon's launch "stacks up" better than PS3's (on top of the fact that MS will line up heavy hitters to combat PS3's launch) then the tables could possibly turn and the early launch would be brilliant for MS
FORMAT
- In a perfect Sony controlled world HD-DVD will absolutly fail making MS's choice of the format look bad, MS could choose BR or DVD, but I think HD-DVD is thier most likely choise, which means that if it ends up not being the "next format" for entertainment than PS3 gains an edge over Xenon there
+ But, at the same time, consumers may not be all gung-ho for a next generation entertainment format already, or...if they are, then they'd likely go with the one that get's the support first...and if HD-DVD is X-BOX months and months before BR is in PS3 then that could really work in Xenon's favor
BC
- No two ways out of it, if they don't offer BC for Xenon, then that's a feature they will lack that the competition will exploit...we can argue this all day, but lacking a feature the competition will have is bad
+ However, less money on a built-in HD and BC would work in Xenon's favor, and for those people out there who REALLY want them, they can buy an add-on which is more money in MS's pocket...if they're smart they will offer this add-on at launch, but it's still too soon at this point, with the rumors of MS releasing 3 different level Xenon's (much riskier than an add-on & IMO a BIG mistake if they do it) and whatnot who the hell knows what they'll do?
Another factor to add in is Nintendo. Why do I (despite being a Nintendo fanboy) consider them a major wildcard next generation? Because people have already counted them out. People expect:
-Revolution's "revolutionary" feature to alienate players
-Revolution to have a fisher price controller
-Revolution to be pastel colored
-Revolution to be shaped like a toy
-Revolution to not go online
-Revolution to be the least powered system (despite possibly coming out last)
-Nintendo to forever focus only on kids
-Nintendo to fail
-Nintendo to ultimatly bow out of hardware
Microsoft & Nintendo really both came into this generation thought they would bowl right over each other. They really didn't take Sony on, they merely split the N64's audience by underestimatling each other. Microsoft is CONTINUING to not take Nintendo seriously, I think they EXPECT Nintendo to make the exact same mistakes next generation. Nintendo (or, should I say Mr. Yamauchi's Nintendo) completly ignored X-BOX going into this generation 'cos they were too Japanese focussed and they knew that (in Japan) MS didn't have much of a chance. Problem is, where X-BOX slacked in the Asian markets they leaped over Nintendo in the Western ones...not just a slight lead in marketshare...more in the sence that they're more significant in Western publishers eyes. So while MS continues to ignore Nintendo, Nintendo realizes that they can't ignore MS in the West as they did in Japan. I think Nintendo will surprize all next E3 'cos so many people expect them to just flat-out fail.