There's not an announced title that they'd use as their big holiday title as opposed to Zelda. If Zelda were to be delayed, we would hear of:
-A new Mario platformer
-A new Animal Crossing
-A major (retail release) Smash Bros or Mario Kart DLC pack
Let's look at what their biggest console title for each year in the past decade was:
2014: Super Smash Bros for Wii U
2013: Super Mario 3D World
2012: New Super Mario Bros U
2011: The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword
2010*: Super Mario All-Stars or Kirby's Epic Yarn
2009: New Super Mario Bros. Wii
2008: Animal Crossing: City Folk
2007: Super Mario Galaxy
2006: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
2005*: Super Mario Strikers, Mario Party 7, or Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance
With the exception of periods where development was swapping to new consoles (2005 and 2010), Mainline Marios, Smashes, Zeldas, and Animal Crossing are the only titles Nintendo has trusted as a big holiday console title (though I'm sure they'd count Mario Kart if console development ever ended around a holiday). Considering none of the teams for these games are all that free bar maybe the mainline Mario teams, I think Zelda U coming this year is a safe bet.