Nintendo full year financial results [23.2B yen loss, 3.6M Wii U/12M 3DS forecast]

Iwata should write "How to be terrible at your job and still keep it for years" and sell it for $100
And finally make a profit huehuehuehue
 
What is telling you that the PS4 won't reach PS3 numbers?

Across the board software output reduction that is further geared toward a narrowing demographic (ie gaming going comic book). Development costs are going to be much higher in general so the output will be even more samey and safe than prior. Continually Lower software sales in every market. Nothing to ignite any demographic outside of this further narrowing 16-30 to makes. I see this as a shorter generational cycle (ie not 7-8 years) as well due to hardware not being as cutting edge as previous cycles.
 
Looking at the first party output of Sony and Microsoft. Yes, it's not low.

It's stupid to think a company should be able to release big IP titles monthly.

Their output isn't low. It's just that no console is worth owning to anyone (as a sole/primary console) other than diehard fanboys without robust third party support. No company puts out enough first party games to keep a serious gamer occupied year round. Exceptions of course for people who replay the shit out of games.

But for a lot of gamers, even if they still like some Nintendo games, there just isn't enough on Wii u to justify a purchase. Especially when they can get their Nintendo fix on 3DS for a lot less money and a better game library if they so desire.
 
Their 3DS forecast doesn't really seem realistic. They failed to reach 12M for the previous fiscal year, I don't know what type foul sorcery they intend to reach it this one. The system is down almost 50% YTD in Japan (more than 50% in the period falling in the new fiscal year) and has been down on average 20% Y/Y in NPD.
Pokemon was the foul sorcery
 
I don't think mainstream gamers are 'loyal', but rather, they're locked into content ecosystems once they've chosen to make an initial investment.

That's what I was meaning. That and they're "loyal" to what ever their friends own as they want to play online with them.
 
Across the board software output reduction that is further geared toward a narrowing demographic (ie gaming going comic book). Development costs are going to be much higher in general so the output will be even more samey and safe than prior. Continually Lower software sales in every market. Nothing to ignite any demographic outside of this further narrowing 16-30 to makes. I see this as a shorter generational cycle (ie not 7-8 years) as well due to hardware not being as cutting edge as previous cycles.

Software output reduction - how are you determining that?

Output being samey and safe - that's subjective.

Continually lower software sales - again, how are you predicting that?
 
It's really not. NINTENDO'S marketshare has vanished into thin air, but this is not new. The Wii's audience completely fell off a cliff between 2010 and 2011.

Microsoft and Sony have been splitting what we all know of as the traditional market, and this market isnt shrinking, just shifting. Instead of a 50/50 worldwide split, MS is taking a hit while Sony is wildly popular in all territories. This is entirely predictable given that MS designed the xbone and it's tv functions with the US solely in mind. EU was an afterthought and JP still doesn't have a launch.

A crash is out of the question entirely, the industry is simply too diverse and robust. Smartphones have devastated the dedicated handheld market as have tablets, and there is a clear linear relationship between smartphone uptake and handheld decline.

But consoles? Totally immune. There is no observable decline here, and we've seen record breaking hardware AND software releases consistently from MS and Sony. Nintendo on the other hand saw an immediate hit from this back in 2010 or so and never really recovered. Their casual audience long since left for tablets, but there is not one single core gamer shelling out full cost for COD, Madden, Fifa, or TLOU that is going to be satisfied with candy crush.
This is my opinion as well. There's been zero supporting data of the core home console market being directly hurt by smart phones. **Once again, this gets into the semantic debate of whether you considered the Wii audience "core", or not. But, even if you do, that just means gen 7 experienced extraordinary and unprecedented growth, followed by an equal and opposite extraordinary contraction. But that's a separate subjective debate.** (correlation=/=causation) Just because Nintendo and MS both dropped the ball super hard with their home console launches, it doesn't mean that we must retrofit history with a narrative of console decline. Don't lie and say that neither the WiiU and XB1 launch period were filled with confusion (mainly WiiU), anger (mainly XB1), and apathy. They effed up. Hard. Sony stepped up and is sweeping in the lionshare of the dedicated console market, and Nintendo is struggling to find a new ocean.
 
It's interesting that a whenever the prospect of Nintendo going third party comes up, we are told that the lineup of software will suffer, and only hit franchises will be produced. The examples of this loss are always the same. Bayonetta and w101.

If the loss of a few games like that is the only negative result, then I don't see it as a problem. The Mario's and Zelda's and what have you are what most people want from Nintendo anyway. And while they are not enough to support a first party platform with no third party support, they would be an excellent addition to any other platforms third party library.

So much this. I look at the current situation and... it's not the games that are the problem-- they're awesome. They're just not enough of a draw to justify most consumers buying a second system from the one they plan to use the most.

My kids and I play the s**t out of our Wii U, because of kid-friendly (and just really good) games like DKC TF, NSMB Wii U + Luigi, etc. If Nintendo would just swallow their pride and release their top games for other consoles as well they'd make a mint. Capitalize on whomever is the market leader.

I love my PS4, but the library is sorely lacking when it comes to kid-friendly or Nintendo titles. Mario, Mario Kart 8, Smash on PS4 would sell millions, and would actually be able to have proper online. It would give premier Nintendo franchises that much more exposure. Not to mention if they went with Sony it would give Japan a nice boost and of course PS4 an additional advantage versus Xbox. A lot of people would go PS vs Xbone if they knew they would get a few top Nintendo franchises on PS4, but a lot of those same people aren't going to buy a Wii U just to play Nintendo games (and certainly not at $300).

I think Nintendo massively underestimates the impact and profitability they would have if they brought their content to other platforms. Understood that they think they'll never be able to sell home consoles again if they bring their stuff to Playstation or Xbox, but isn't that sort of where they are at this point already?

I really think an 'our platform + 1' strategy for Nintendo's non-handheld offerings could be great, and would certainly help get them through these dark times.
 
Okay, let's make predictions now.

How long will Nintendo remain in the console business if they continue to post losses like this?




Well they are a wealthy company and can post losses like this for at least like 20 years before they go under however, like MS they have investors to please so how long before they want Nintendo to hop out idk?
 
So this past quarter:

3DS 590K
WIU 310K

Family total: 900K


When was the last time a Nintendo family of consoles sold sub 1 Million units in a quarter? This is dire.
 
Are there seriously still people that don't think a Nintendo developed Zelda will come out for the Wii U???
I love the wii u, I think it's a fantastic system! But is there some true confirmation that Zelda is coming that I missed? I don't keep up on gaming to much anymore and releases for the wii u are pretty slow right now.
 
Software output reduction - how are you determining that?

Output being samey and safe - that's subjective.

Continually lower software sales - again, how are you predicting that?

1) look at most of the third parties financial reports. The reduction in software output is pronounced and massive

2) equally, on the console front at least, that output IS much safer and following certain genre archetypes (outside consoles, variety is much more palpable). It isn't hard to see this and how this could have a large effect on the amount of non 18-30yo makes would buy into any particular ecosystem

3) this doesn't need to be predicted - it's already happening
 
It's really not. NINTENDO'S marketshare has vanished into thin air, but this is not new. The Wii's audience completely fell off a cliff between 2010 and 2011.

Microsoft and Sony have been splitting what we all know of as the traditional market, and this market isnt shrinking, just shifting. Instead of a 50/50 worldwide split, MS is taking a hit while Sony is wildly popular in all territories. This is entirely predictable given that MS designed the xbone and it's tv functions with the US solely in mind. EU was an afterthought and JP still doesn't have a launch.

A crash is out of the question entirely, the industry is simply too diverse and robust. Smartphones have devastated the dedicated handheld market as have tablets, and there is a clear linear relationship between smartphone uptake and handheld decline.

But consoles? Totally immune. There is no observable declining here, and we've seen record breaking hardware AND software releases consistently from MS and Sony. Nintendo on the other hand saw an immediate hit from this back in 2010 or so and never really recovered. Their casual audience long since left for tablets, but there is not one single core gamer shelling out full cost for COD, Madden, Fifa, or TLOU that is going to be satisfied with candy crush.

Very true. Case and point, the Zelda series declining in sales during a single console generation on the Wii. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess sold 6.8 million units since releasing back in 2006, in contrast, The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword only sold 3.7 million units since releasing in 2011.

Are there seriously still people that don't think a Nintendo developed Zelda will come out for the Wii U???

I'm very interested in Nintendo's E3 Direct, if only to see what becomes of Zelda. IMO, it's up in the air as to what will happen with Zelda U.
 
I'm struggling to envision a scenario where a new powerful console can turn things around.

It can't, honestly, because the same issue with almost nil third-party support will remain-- unless Nintendo ponies up some cash to "entice" publishers to come back.

A new and more powerful console will only mean better-looking Mario, Zelda, and other popular Nintendo IP as soon as first-party development teams can make them. That's about it. Third-party publishers have placed their bets elsewhere and won't suddenly come back to Nintendo because "Hey, new console!"

It's a difficult situation moving forward, and we'll see how-- or even IF-- Nintendo tackles it.
 
I love the wii u, I think it's a fantastic system! But is there some true confirmation that Zelda is coming that I missed? I don't keep up on gaming to much anymore and releases for the wii u are pretty slow right now.
Aonuma has confirmed it multiple times over the past couple years.
 
Sure they remake pokemon from scratch but don't use the assets they already have for Majoras Mask remake for 3DS :(
 
There is and will be no hybrid thing.

I doubt it as well I do think they'll put their next console and portable on the same architectures though so they can easily port every game to release on bit hand not have their development resources split between two platforms. That would generate more game sales since every game developed can be sold to both markets.

That's one way they can up output without really costing more money. The question is whether that will spur console sales, or just boost their handheld market and software sales. I'd guess the latter. I think they're done being a major player on the console arena, but are still a force in the shrinking handheld market.
 
The number of Nintendo fans going full-on Iraqi Information Minister in here is amazing. There is an almost Fox News level of dedication to talking points.

How bad do sales have to be before some of them acknowledge that Nintendo's current strategy simply is not working?

Where are you getting that Nintendo fan thinks what Nintendo is doing is working. People have different ideas of what they could or should be doing. It's always seem to me that the common agreement was that what Nintendo is doing wasn't working and wasn't good enough and they need to do something else.
 
Actually no, it's worse than that. He forecast a 100B JPY operating profit and returned a 46.4B JPY operating loss. The 23.2B loss was the net.

I have no words.

That 12m 3DS forecast doesn't look too bad now knowing Smash 3DS is in summer and Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire is in November.

Nintendo sold 12.24 million with a NEW mainline Pokemon game, a new model at low price and MH4.
 
I'm struggling to envision a scenario where a new powerful console can turn things around.

I think they really need to spend more time streamlining their backend

Even old cheap hardware can perform. Its the Horrible OS/Online Infrastructure/Accounts etc. that need work

Which they seem to acknowledge.

They need to be more nimble with developing system updates and having them delivering quickly and conveniently.

Might not be a bad idea to have a balance between big games and small games development too. Just so that the release schedule can be smoother.
 
Across the board software output reduction that is further geared toward a narrowing demographic (ie gaming going comic book). Development costs are going to be much higher in general so the output will be even more samey and safe than prior. Continually Lower software sales in every market. Nothing to ignite any demographic outside of this further narrowing 16-30 to makes. I see this as a shorter generational cycle (ie not 7-8 years) as well due to hardware not being as cutting edge as previous cycles.

US market, sure. Globally the demographic narrowing is less in play due to broader targets, and continental western Europe can be expected to fill out, eastern Europe can be expected to come online seriously, and increasing standards of living/loosening content restrictions aimed at limiting Japanese influence (at least, if Abe doesn't do anything too stupid) in Southeast Asia should provide a windfall in Korea and a decent uptick in "Hong Kong" (read: gray-market China).

It will definitely be shorter, but 5 years or so is by no means an outlier. The only notably longer reigns were the NES, PS1, and PS2, and those only in Japan.
 
And the Wii u has a nearly 6 attach rate. It's still a dead console. Look the console market isn't crashing like it did in the 80s, but if you don't see a massive contraction happening - across the board - you simply have your head in the sand. Software output and sales paint a picture that should tell you that the very successful ps4 may not even reach the ps3's number. The xbone won't even come close, and the Wii u will struggle to best the dreamcast at this point. All while software is much more expensive to produce and there is much less of it available to sell to an increasingly narrowing demographic. People need to wake up to reality and put away Baghdad bob.
I think the contraction is mainly due to WiiU,3DS and Vita being unable to reach anywhere close to their predecessors during this point of their lifecycle.The true effects of rising budgets are yet to be felt IMO.
 
No there isn't. Where's your source? If I recall they just said their next iterations would use similar technologies and frameworks. There was nothing stated about a hybrid console.

The official confirmation was that Nintendo was NOT combining handheld and console into one machine.

So, we know there will be a handheld and a console, and we know the development teams for both machines are basically unified now.
 
Again I ask.

Can someone fill me in on Yamauichis third party rule? And if so is it still there?

Third parties could only make a limited number of games per year to not flood the market with crap. This lead to some making shell companies to release more. Obviously this is no longer the case.
 
It's pretty unlikely that he does know now ;)



2010:
1,252,321 mio Yen

2014:
795,215 mio Yen

In just 4 years that happened.

Tell me one company that was in business for more than 100 years and stayed on top the whole time making a profit every year they are in existence.

Every company falls at some point no matter how successful they are in the past. They just need to survive the bad.
 
I can't imagine it being terribly effective from a system selling point-of-view. Anyone mad for Pokemon would've presumably bought a 3DS six months ago when the last two games came out.

Still, y'never know.

There are also the pokmon edition of hardware that comes with the games. Every mainline Pokemon and remarks sells hardwares.
PA.04747.002.jpg

Pokemon_XY_3DS_XL_Red_Box_rgb.jpg
 
I'm struggling to envision a scenario where a new powerful console can turn things around.

It can't. Wii U got some benefit of the doubt from 3rd parties coming off the success of the Wii. That evaporated very quickly though. A new console would be in an even more difficult position.

Nintendo's only viable strategy going forwards is to artificially extend the life of the Wii U through the QoL platform. Based on the same architecture minus the GamePad, aiming for broader appeal while supporting games as part of it.

Then release a new handheld that is powerful enough to support decent ports from it and share OS/dev tools.

Nintendo have to stick with Wii U level development and make it work by unifying their platforms. Try and occupy a middle-ground between Amazon and Apple and their set-top boxes, and the consoles of Sony/Microsoft. The casual and mainstream markets are both lost, they just have to make their niche profitable.
 
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