alfredofroylan
Member
Well maybe this movie is cheap, but I think this's a good candidate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeGNcGVBE-0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeGNcGVBE-0
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Predict the biggest B.O. bomb of summer 2014: Jupiter Ascending Delayed
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Aquamarine
Member
A Dreamworks movie released earlier this year---Mr. Peabody & Sherman---had a stated production budget of $145 million.
It made $267,336,699 at the worldwide box office. That's nearly twice its production budget.
And yet, despite this, Dreamworks took a $57.074 million impairment loss and called the movie a financial failure. The situation was so bad for them that they ended up owing their distributor (Fox) money, and the film only contributed $3 million to the company's quarterly revenue.
Just an example of how a film really requires quite a bit more than the stated budget to actually be a success.
……forgetit
Member
For the purpose of this thread, the metric for bomb here is the lowest amount of profit percentage based on budget of the film, ie if movie A has a budget of $100 million and makes $100 million back, and movie B's budget was $200 million and made $150 million back, then movie B is the bigger bomb because it only made 75% of it's budget, as opposed to movie A making 100% of it's budget. Of course marketing factors in, but because that data is never really available, it wont be included.
way more
Member
Anyone who says Edge of Tomorrow can't be trusted to contribute here. I just want to see it for Emily Blunt musskulls wearing an Elysuim suit but it's got simple easy appeal. Explosions, robots, babes, Tom Cruise, and guns. The only hindrance to the trailers is the plot but that just gives it some egghead/P.Dick appeal.
Exotoro
Member
BronsonLee
Member
The only way I'm eating crow is if Jupiter Ascending succeeds.
As such, my diet will be bird-free for life
The what? Hahahahaha that was good. It's a movie nobody asked for. A historical fiction comedy, but the comedy is modern? Great, can't wait to be bored.
Macmanus
Member
That seems like such an arbitrary barrier of immersion to the Marvel universe. If Gary Shandling can be an elected Senator with deep ties to a secret fascist organization I don't see how imaging a raccoon with a jet pack gunning about universe could be that hard to swallow.
Yeah and Warner said every Harry Potter movie lost them money. I would take what the studios say about losses with a salt mine.
Macmanus
Member
Hollywood accounting 101: Flex the numbers so Net Profit is in the red.
International Gross versus budget should be the only metric this thread cares about in determining the biggest flop.
If I had to choose a potential 'bomb' right now for the summer it's starting to feel like Hercules. Though Dwayne Johnson is a very popular actor everything about the tone of this film seems off to me. I just don't see people turning up for this is huge numbers.
I also think that this new Ninja Turtles film is going to miss the mark and do middling business at best. Word is the film plays 'very young' so it's not like Paramount are trying some darker interpretation of the brand.
While Jupiter Ascending is the popular choice Im hoping that it manages to hold its own later in the summer. It's too early for tracking on the film but I have a feeling that weird elf ears or no the combination of Channing Tatum and huge sci-fi action (supposedly later trailers will concentrate on the action..., which is crazy) will bring people in and it won't become another Lone Ranger.
This. People also forget the studios never truthfully report the budgets of their films. Ever.
The amount of times I've seen people quote budget numbers religiously when there is no source for them beyond a rough 'guesstiamtion' in the trades is ludicrous.
I also think that this new Ninja Turtles film is going to miss the mark and do middling business at best. Word is the film plays 'very young' so it's not like Paramount are trying some darker interpretation of the brand.
While Jupiter Ascending is the popular choice Im hoping that it manages to hold its own later in the summer. It's too early for tracking on the film but I have a feeling that weird elf ears or no the combination of Channing Tatum and huge sci-fi action (supposedly later trailers will concentrate on the action..., which is crazy) will bring people in and it won't become another Lone Ranger.
This. People also forget the studios never truthfully report the budgets of their films. Ever.
The amount of times I've seen people quote budget numbers religiously when there is no source for them beyond a rough 'guesstiamtion' in the trades is ludicrous.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
See, I think the term "Bomb" needs to actually MEAN something. Something like the example you pointed out is a disappiontment - but just because Hollywood sucks at accounting doesn't mean a movie that cost 150 and made 270 worldwide is a "Bomb." It might have disappointed, but it's not a BOMB.
Transcendence is a bomb. That's what a bomb looks like. A film that only barely covers its budget is a disappointment. A film that just barely misses its budget is a disappointment.
A film that doesn't even get close? THAT'S a bomb.
FallingEdge
Member
No the good artwork from the novel is from Yoshitoshi ABe.
The mediocre artwork that you provided is from the recent manga by Takeshi Obata, same guy drew the terrible artwork for Castlevania Judgement.
thanks, I just bought the book cause of you!
Macmanus
Member
Studios hold their budgets close to their chest, but they're close to the mark if numbers are released. It's Net Profits that are typically skewed beyond any semblance of being reliable.
Of the seven main films mentioned in this thread, 5 of them have reliable budget numbers. Only two; Guardians and Sin City, don't have reliable numbers out there.
Probably a smart move. Opening in Feb gives them more breathing room.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
Now that Jupiter is out of the race I change my vote to Hercules.
Jupiter Ascending is going to bomb even harder in February though.
Jupiter Ascending is going to bomb even harder in February though.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
What's coming out that weekend?
Another Planes film, and a sequel to the Purge. Neither are going to be that big.
EDIT: I guess the film Sex Tape is releasing as well. I would imagine smaller films are going to do some shuffling now though.
Sex Tape
Purge 2
Planes 2
Purge was a sleeper hit last year though but Cameron Diaz still draws in crowds and Planes is Planes.
The purge was the opposite of a sleeper hit. It was a one weekend chump that made over half its domestic total in those 3 days.
Sleeper hits make consistent amounts of money over long periods of time. Black Swan was a sleeper hit.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I could see this happening. Looks expensive, but I don't think it has the draw to make that back.
It worked for gi joe 2.
Edge of Tomorrow being reported as a $180M film is definitely going to hurt it. If it was $120M, I think it would do fine.
GI Joe opened in March. March is becoming a respectable month. February is mostly shit with a few exceptions.
EDIT: Especially if we are discounting date type movies for obvious reasons.
GI Joe opened in March. March is becoming a respectable month. February is mostly shit with a few exceptions.
EDIT: Especially if we are discounting date type movies for obvious reasons.
Okay, you're right as Man of Steel came out the weekend after.
That means it's literally the only thing to see. It will make more then opening in summer when it will be pushed out the next week.
That logic hasn't worked out for a lot of films, especially since those Feb openings often come with a drastic cut in marketing budget.
True, but this is a slightly bigger movie then normally opens that time of year.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Hercules might be a safe (ish) pick. The Rock has definitely disappointed at the box office before, and this trailer that just came out sure as hell didn't inspire any confidence.
Kswiston: You think Marvel can move Guardians back to July 18th this close to the date?
edit: Betting Warners is trying to see if they can do what they did with Lego Movie in February. It would necessitate shifting the marketing quite a bit - trying to highlight the "fun" nature of the movie instead of the OMG SERIOUS nature early trailers have been pushing.
Kswiston: You think Marvel can move Guardians back to July 18th this close to the date?
edit: Betting Warners is trying to see if they can do what they did with Lego Movie in February. It would necessitate shifting the marketing quite a bit - trying to highlight the "fun" nature of the movie instead of the OMG SERIOUS nature early trailers have been pushing.
Hmm. I guess I forgot that we are only 6-7 weeks away from Jul 18th. Smaller movies have jumped foward and backward a week or two from release. After Earth was bumped forward a week about 5 weeks from release, so I know it isn't logistically impossible. I guess it would depend on things like IMAX deals.
UberTag
Member
Calling a bomba with Jupiter Ascending no longer in the mix is somewhat tricky.
I think Edge of Tomorrow could struggle despite the favorable reviews.
I would like to put forward an argument for Transformers: Age of Extinction without sounding like an insane madman.
Perhaps people will now realize these films are garbage just as they seemingly have for Adam Sandler films.
It's a tough case to make, however, with Michael Bay keeping the budget for this sequel BELOW that of Edge of Tomorrow.
So yeah, Edge of Tomorrow gets my vote for biggest bomba although it should bring in more at the box office domestically than Hercules.
I think Edge of Tomorrow could struggle despite the favorable reviews.
I would like to put forward an argument for Transformers: Age of Extinction without sounding like an insane madman.
Perhaps people will now realize these films are garbage just as they seemingly have for Adam Sandler films.
It's a tough case to make, however, with Michael Bay keeping the budget for this sequel BELOW that of Edge of Tomorrow.
So yeah, Edge of Tomorrow gets my vote for biggest bomba although it should bring in more at the box office domestically than Hercules.
Green Embers
Member
Hmm, after my first guess is out, it looks like Edge of Tomorrow. I'm starting to look forward to it too from the word of mouth here. Sad 😢
Next guess is Hercules.
Next guess is Hercules.
UberTag
Member
I know you're right. Even if North Americans woke up to the films being trash, the rest of the world that flocks to Hollywood's shiny things will happily give the film a billion or so dollars.
Future PhaZe
Member
Hercules no doubt unless the budget is insanely small.
It's small enough not to make it a sure thing when we are talking worldwide box office. Hercules is being reported as $110M.
EchoChamber
Member
bu.but i like explosions and shiny things and OPTIMUUUS.
sorry im foreign and im part of the problem
Or how creative accounting allows studios to turn marginal success stories into nice tax right offs.
Even if studios got 50% of the worldwide gross (they don't), $265M wouldn't make a $145M film money at the box office. The film wasn't a bomb, and will probably turn a profit eventually via home media, netflix, tv, etc. That's not really a success story though.
……forgetit
Member
Hercules I guess now, even though it looks like we may not have a legit bomb this summer.
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