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Predict the biggest B.O. bomb of summer 2014: Jupiter Ascending Delayed

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Guardians of the Galaxy will bomb, it just looks so bad. All of my friends who are pretty big marvel comic fans say its terrible and the other friends who just like the marvel movies says it looks terrible. The main guy also looks like a non-funny skinner Seth Rogen that is trying to be funny, plus the racoon is just a bad idea. Who is this movie for? The edge of tomorrow also looks bad, but Tom Cruise probabky sells, Herclues could go either way.
 
Spork4000 said:
For the purpose of this thread, the metric for bomb here is the lowest amount of profit percentage based on budget of the film, ie if movie A has a budget of $100 million and makes $100 million back, and movie B's budget was $200 million and made $150 million back, then movie B is the bigger bomb because it only made 75% of it's budget, as opposed to movie A making 100% of it's budget. Of course marketing factors in, but because that data is never really available, it wont be included.
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It can be more complicated than that too. Disney's Tangled made 200 million, the highest of any animated Disney movie at that point since The Lion King, but that was against a 260 million budget. Which was only so bloated because the movie had been attempted 3-4 times before and the reported budget number included the various reboots of the project.
 
WaffleTaco said:
Guardians of the Galaxy will bomb, it just looks so bad. All of my friends who are pretty big marvel comic fans say its terrible and the other friends who just like the marvel movies says it looks terrible. The main guy also looks like a non-funny skinner Seth Rogen that is trying to be funny, plus the racoon is just a bad idea. Who is this movie for? The edge of tomorrow also looks bad, but Tom Cruise probabky sells, Herclues could go either way.
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Hercules for the L....

Edge of tomorrow seems cool and the Disney/Marvel Marketing Machine has built up enough hype for Guardians that as long as it isn't bad people will go and see it.
 
I think Guardians is going to be great but yes, like Pacific Rim, I don't think its going to have a mass appeal. You never know with these Marvel movies though. Iron Man 3 was a piece of shit and it made a ton.

I think the Rock's Hercules is going to bomb. I say that mainly bc I think Brett Ratner is awful and any movie he directs deserves to bomb.
 
I can see Edge of Tomorrow having a tepid release domestically but being a hit in the overseas market similar to Pacific Rim, since big loud sci-fi blockbusters seem to be all the rage over there (seriously how did After Earth make so much fucking money in the foreign markets). I'd have to give it to either Jupiter Acending or Lucy.
 
UltraGunner said:
I can see Edge of Tomorrow having a tepid release domestically but being a hit in the overseas market similar to Pacific Rim, since big loud sci-fi blockbusters seem to be all the rage over there (seriously how did After Earth make so much fucking money in the foreign markets). I'd have to give it to either Jupiter Acending or Lucy.
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The movie has been released in parts of Asia, Spain, Brazil, Germany and Netherlands, so far 20 million
 
WaffleTaco said:
Guardians of the Galaxy will bomb, it just looks so bad. All of my friends who are pretty big marvel comic fans say its terrible and the other friends who just like the marvel movies says it looks terrible. The main guy also looks like a non-funny skinner Seth Rogen that is trying to be funny, plus the racoon is just a bad idea. Who is this movie for? The edge of tomorrow also looks bad, but Tom Cruise probabky sells, Herclues could go either way.
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Chris Pratt is hilarious.
 
With Jupiter Ascending out of the picture, it looks like Hercules might be the bomb king of the summer. The race has definitely opened up though. Since the clear loser is no longer valid, in the end we might be looking at a summer where even the "biggest bomb" wasn't a clear failure.
 
My screening of Edge of Tomorrow here in Taipei had a sizeable crowd, and the audience really seemed to enjoy it...but Malificent is eating up most of the show time slots, it seems. It's roping in the Disney fairy tale audiences who are still salivating over Frozen. Frozen still has a lingering effect here, and just won't go away (great flick,though).
 
Blackstarhat said:
'Sex tape will bomb it doesn't look funny at all.
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As wretched as it looks (and I liked Diaz in Bad Teacher) I think that Sony can probably do middling business out of it in the US with nothing worldwide.

I have to wonder just how many more of these types of roles Cameron Diaz has left in her.
 
I think the biggest problem with all of these summer blockbusters are that they are being released to close to each other and destroying each others box office potential. Nobody really wins in a situation like this (at least in the domestic box office) unless you have a small budget movie like Neighbors and The Fault in Our Stars.
 
jacks81x said:
Lots of predictions here being proven wrong. Maleficent now at $436m worldwide. Edge of Tomorrow at $237m.
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Well EoT needs to make at least 350 mil just to break even, so I wouldn't call it a success.

Still sticking with my Hercules guess.
 
Sinatar said:
Well EoT needs to make at least 350 mil just to break even, so I wouldn't call it a success.

Still sticking with my Hercules guess.
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I didn't call it a success (yet). This thread is about which movie will bomb. And this certainly will not be a bomb when it's all said and done. Also, EoT shouldn't have a problem hitting $350m. Still a bunch of international markets that it hasn't opened in yet. Japan is one of them, and that's traditionally a Cruise stronghold. It should shoot past $350m in the coming weeks.
 
jacks81x said:
I didn't call it a success (yet). This thread is about which movie will bomb. And this certainly will not be a bomb when it's all said and done. Also, EoT shouldn't have a problem hitting $350m. Still a bunch of international markets that it hasn't opened in yet. Japan is one of them, and that's traditionally a Cruise stronghold. It should shoot past $350m in the coming weeks.
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Japan will have to stop watching Frozen first before the cruse missile lands.
 
I don't really see the point of beating the drum saying "well international numbers are decent" and "I'm sure the rentals and home video releases will make back some money" with regards to Edge of Tomorrow here. We're talking about a 170 million dollar blockbuster starring Tom Cruise which has no chance of even reaching 100 million domestically at the box office. I think that definitely qualifies as a bomb on some level.

With domestic figures like that, it's going to take a whole lot more than 350 million worldwide to recoup the cost of the film theatrically. Will the movie likely make it's budget back after home video? Probably, but most films do, even those everyone including the companies making them agrees are failures.

When looking at an industry where hundreds of millions are spent making products, eventually breaking even is hardly the bar for success.
 
duckroll said:
We're talking about a 170 million dollar blockbuster starring Tom Cruise which has no chance of even reaching 100 million domestically at the box office. I think that definitely qualifies as a bomb on some level.
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Splitting hairs, but Edge of Tomorrow has a chance at $100M. It's ahead of Elysium by $1M after its second weekend, after a slightly smaller opening, and Elysium made $93M. Given the gap between second weekends ($16.5M for Edge of Tomorrow and $13.7M for Elysium), and given what comes out next weekend, the gap will widen. The only question mark is how much of an effect Transformers will have on Weekend #4.
 
kswiston said:
Splitting hairs, but Edge of Tomorrow has a chance at $100M. It's ahead of Elysium by $1M after its second weekend, after a slightly smaller opening, and Elysium made $93M. Given the gap between second weekends ($16.5M for Edge of Tomorrow and $13.7M for Elysium), and given what comes out next weekend, the gap will widen. The only question mark is how much of an effect Transformers will have on Weekend #4.
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Yeah I guess it's definitely possible. I shouldn't write 100 million off, but I just don't think it's very probably at this point because I expect a much harsher drop off for everything once TF4 comes into the picture. My larger point was just that it's clear that EoT is a disappointment in terms of performance for a blockbuster of its class. I think it would be hard to argue against that. It might not be the biggest bomb of the Summer, but it's hardly something that can be celebrated as a success either, unlike Maleficent.
 
I could see Hercules going either way, at this point. Crock has had some successes and he's had some pretty bad misfires. I could see it having a solid opening weekend and doing solid business through the rest of August. Guardians of the Galaxy will chop its legs off, though.
 
WaffleTaco said:
Guardians of the Galaxy will bomb, it just looks so bad. All of my friends who are pretty big marvel comic fans say its terrible and the other friends who just like the marvel movies says it looks terrible. The main guy also looks like a non-funny skinner Seth Rogen that is trying to be funny, plus the racoon is just a bad idea. Who is this movie for? The edge of tomorrow also looks bad, but Tom Cruise probabky sells, Herclues could go either way.
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You couldn't be more wrong, and you'll see that come August...
 
duckroll said:
Yeah I guess it's definitely possible. I shouldn't write 100 million off, but I just don't think it's very probably at this point because I expect a much harsher drop off for everything once TF4 comes into the picture. My larger point was just that it's clear that EoT is a disappointment in terms of performance for a blockbuster of its class. I think it would be hard to argue against that. It might not be the biggest bomb of the Summer, but it's hardly something that can be celebrated as a success either, unlike Maleficent.
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Ya, it's best case scenario is disappointment status. People don't make $170M films hoping to gross $350M worldwide.

It could still be "bomb" of the summer, since this summer doesn't have a lot that is high budget enough to super bomb. Transformers can't bomb. What else is in the $150M+ range? Guardians of the Galaxy and maybe Dawn of the Planet of the Apes?

JdFoX187 said:
I could see Hercules going either way, at this point. Crock has had some successes and he's had some pretty bad misfires. I could see it having a solid opening weekend and doing solid business through the rest of August. Guardians of the Galaxy will chop its legs off, though.
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Wiki lists Hercules at $110M. If that is the case, I think it is too cheap to bomb all that hard. I think that it will do decently overseas.
 
Yeah, Guardians of the Galaxy has the Marvel hype machine behind it. I think anyone that saw Avengers, Iron Man 3, thor 2, and Capt America 2 can be counted on to make it a much larger success than a stand alone, new IP like Pacific Rim. I think it will perform to expectations at the least but have a good shot at exceeding them if it actually turns out as good as it looks.
 
kswiston said:
Ya, it's best case scenario is disappointment status. People don't make $170M films hoping to gross $350M worldwide.

It could still be "bomb" of the summer, since this summer doesn't have a lot that is high budget enough to super bomb. Transformers can't bomb. What else is in the $150M+ range? Guardians of the Galaxy and maybe Dawn of the Planet of the Apes?
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Of course not, but at the same time WB doesn't have any other big budget movies coming out the rest of the year except for Hobbit 3 in December. I think they invested in EoT knowing that it's not going to be a huge boxoffice hit, even with the positive reviews, but they needed a film of some statue to fill out an otherwise pretty anemic 2014 lineup. The only two films this year that were certified boxoffice hits for them were the Lego Movie and Godzilla. If EoT can return a small profit after its theatrical run, I think they should be pretty happy all things consider, especially with Transcendence and Blended bombing.
 
The only shot that really looks weak in the Guardians trailer is the part where Pratt rocket boots out of the building.
 
mjc said:
The only shot that really looks weak in the Guardians trailer is the part where Pratt rocket boots out of the building.
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The shot of Groot sprouting or whatever the hell he's doing at 2:04 looks bad, as does Pratt's retracting mask 12 seconds in. In fact, I'd say most of the stuff with Groot looks kinda rough.
 
I'm pretty optimistic for GotG. I don't think it'll be a runaway hit or anything, but not a catastrophic bomb either. Cap 1 or Thor 1 numbers is what I expect at a minimum. The only thing that could really go against that movie is that Ninja Turtles (ugh) releases in its 2nd weekend.

Edge of Tomorrow got good reception so I'd like to see it... but those trailers did no favors for me and I didn't expect it to do very well at theaters.
 
Numbers so far:
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Budget: $170M
Domestic: $256,690,000 Worldwide: $710,690,000

Godzillla
Budget: $160M
Domestic: $194,915,000 Worldwide: $443,215,000

The Amazing Spooderman 2
Budget: $200M
Domestic: $199,477,000 Worldwide: $702,782,000

X-Men Days of Future Past
Budget: $200M
Domestic: $216,794,000 Worldside: $677,825,285

Maleficent
Budget: $180M
Domestic: 185,980,000 Worldwide: $521,580,000

Edge of Tomorrow
Budget: $178M
Domestic: $74,511,000 Worldwide: $255,511,000

The Fault in our Stars
Budget: $12M
Domestic: $98,728,000 Worldwide: $140,767,468

How to Train you Dragon 2
Budget: $145M
Domestic: $95,177,000 Worldwide: $131,708,597

A million ways to s**t in the West
Budget: $40M
Domestic: $40,324,000 Worldwide: $71,124,000

22 Jump Street
Budget: $50M
Domestic: $111,450,000 Worldwide: $149,650,000
 
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