I am biased as a German fan and I wouldn't be surprised if nobody read this, but I am already going to throw in my analytical prediction as to how some of the Argentina-Germany game will go. Whatever I say does not mean I am showing a lot of confidence, because I am scared as all hell with our consistency to fuck up the last hurdle, so keep that in mind when I sound like things are allllll ok. Alright? Cool.
I've watched every minute of this World Cup, every single game. I have seen all the replays and looked at all the teams. Other than Costa Rica throwing off everything, basically all I have predicted has been right, which is nice. Satisfying, I should make bets next time. Oh well.
Anyways, Germany as a team can be described as having a lot of characteristics that made other teams great. We have a group of forward players that have adopted Total Football in their pivoting motions and switching of positions with free movement and strong passing. We have a midfield similar to that of Tiki Taka, mixed with our defense, playing with a lot of passing and with a high line. We also have what some analysts I have read is described as a 'samba pace' when we need it, reminiscent of the great Brazil team of old.
That sounds like a good combination, but sometimes it causes problems. For one, our defensive line is made up of three CB's and a FB, generally having a lack of speed and agility dealing with strong offense. The right (Attacker POV) side is particularly weak. Höwedes played well against Brazil, but other than that he has looked extremely suspect. Also, Özil's lack of defensive action pulling back leaves a lot to be desired. Only Schweinsteiger really covers that spot, and he can only do so much as he also helps with the attack.
Also, under several circumstances, we have played extremely slow, as opposed to what was described as samba, as our build up play requires time for people to move about and find space, we also have a strong reliance on our right side, as Özil/Götze have been relatively poor in finding good space on the left. If our right side was cut off, we wouldn't be able to effective use Lahm, Khedira, or Müller.
That said, our build-up play has been really strong so far, with great passers throughout the entire field. Kroos plays his role in the middle extremely well, and the floating movement of Müller has provided us with a lot of options, while also keeping most attacking possibilities restricted to counters. We have also mastered set pieces I guess (Müller's fall was acting, thank you very much), as Kroos has really done well with the long ball and we have a ton of finishers in Müller, Klose, Schürrle (as a sub), and Hummels with his massive head so far. We also have a monster Goalkeeper, thanks Manu.
Argentina was originally described as having an incredible offensive trio in Mess, Higuain, and Aguero. Unfortunately, Aguero was injured and Higuain has only recently showed up (better late than never). Di Maria has instead made himself clinical to the Argentinian attack, but unluckily picked up his own hamstring injury. I am under the impression he will not be available for the finals, and even if he is, won't be fully fit. Aguero looks hurt still too, but he was able to play at least.
Instead, they have shown a mighty defense, holding out like all goals possible and stopping a lot of options, if a bit slowly. Demichelis in particular has made all his doubters at Man City look pretty damn dumb during this tournament. This will without a doubt be the strongest aspect of their game unless the offensive players are able to help lighten the load. Messi has carried this team most of the way, and should never in his life be shrugged off, because he can change a game in minutes. Free kicks in particular are his cup of tea. Not that I know anything about tea being relaxing because I am a German in Texas and we drink Coffee and in Texas we drink sweat tea. Whatever.
I can't particularly describe well the Argentinian weaknesses, but I figure that the overall production of midfield has been a problem. Messi has had to do a lot of buildup play, as well as Di Maria, as the midfield players have been predominately held more to sustaining the defensive wall, but for good reason - it works for them. Also, the focus being on Messi in defense will surely leave space open for the other players in the Argentinian attack, as was the case against Belgium and Switzerland I think. I don't feel entirely comfortable saying I understand their problems all that well at this point though. I mean even though they have been just scraping by most wins, they have had good chances and have pulled through. Spain won the cup the same way, really.
As for the game, I imagine it will be a true test of the defensive prowess Argentina has shown thus far. Germany plays quicker than the Netherlands does, and have a lot more subs that can make massive impacts than any team that Argentina has faced excluding Belgium maybe. They will have to work almost exclusively on the counter as the possession style that Germany is using will allow for little build up chances, seeing as to how they press. Messi will need to be on top of his game, as will Romero stopping goals. They will also need to be careful to manage their energy as they had a much more difficult game for a whole lot longer and a whole day later than the Germans.
That isn't to say Germany doesn't have its challenges though. After the rout against Brazil, they may come in far too confident, despite much of what they said in their interviews. It is incredibly difficult to come back focused and determined with a will to win after dominating one of the favorites in their own tournament that badly. They will also have to deal with the fact that they are generally poor defending the counter, as they hold such a high line and don't have many fast defenders. Schweinsteiger will have to play insanely well to keep things good back there in his holding position. There will also be the rivalry with expectation, as this is the final of the most important tournament in their lives, where they have fallen at the final hurdle of the last three, along with the failure at Euro 2012.
That said, a lot of the odds are strongly in Germany's favor, they just need to make sure to play at their best and not take anything from the Brazil game other than their fast pace and great team chemistry. It will truly be a challenge for Argentina as well.
Key players: Müller, Kroos, Hummels, Messi, Demichelis, Romero
Predicted winner: I am not even going to put this one in.
Sorry if this is too long or poorly written or if I am an idiot. I have a tendency to go full out on this sort of thing, which probably helps most of the time considering I am a sports and games writer for my local newspaper, lol. Oh well. Sorry again, if this overcrowds your space or is a plain bore to read. Go easy on me, I am still sort of new here.
