June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th

Crimson_Gold said:
Xbox relaunch was a success. Phil has led a renaissance through the purchase of Crytek and Capcom. Every AAA title going forward is exclusive and the final documents are being signed on the repurchase of Bungie.

How's that?
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Great! Sounds Pachter-esque to me!
 
SDCowboy said:
What is the point of not trying to accurately predict the numbers? Whats the point of participating then? lol
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If I can jump in here, I think the previous poster was saying that some posters take the predictions threads seriously, using previous results and as much analysis and research as possible to accurately predict the results. On the other hand, some posters don't want or care to do the research, but still want to participate and discuss, and they would love to guess correctly.

Anyway, I've never been very interested in these details but these threads are becoming more and more interesting to watch.
 
Hey I've never noticed, does someone compile and show an average prediction for this whole thread before or after npd? I would guess gaf is pretty accurate as a whole. .
 
joecanada said:
Hey I've never noticed, does someone compile and show an average prediction for this whole thread before or after npd? I would guess gaf is pretty accurate as a whole. .
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Sometimes the creator and organizer of these threads, Donny2112, will give us the gaf average for the month once predictions close but not every month
 
Aquamarine said:
OG Xbox actually did quite well in the USA.

There are two problems with it:

1) OG Xbox died very quickly after the Xbox 360 came out in November 2005. It only had a 4 year active life. Compare that to Xbox 360's 8 year active life.

2) OG Xbox didn't do all that well outside of the USA. 14 million sold-through out of its 24 million shipment total was in USA sell-through alone.
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It's still kinda weird how short the OG Xbox lifecycle was.

OG Xbox had a tough job with a the stigma that microsoft had/has.

Sorry for the offtopic part, but when is the bet over ? :P


Jimmyfenix said:
I bought a new dreamcast and Shenmue for a total of £20 a few weeks ago.
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Good choice.
 
Pennywise said:
It's still kinda weird how short the OG Xbox lifecycle was.

OG Xbox had a tough job with a the stigma that microsoft had/has.

Sorry for the offtopic part, but when is the bet over ? :P



Good choice.
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Wasnt the main reason because the cost of manufacturing basically stayed the same despite them lowering price ?
 
jakncoke said:
Wasnt the main reason because the cost of manufacturing basically stayed the same despite them lowering price ?
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Didn't MS have serious problems with I think Nvidia screwing around with the cost of the GPU or something to that extent? Kept the price of manufacturing them super high
 
SwiftDeath said:
Didn't MS have serious problems with I think Nvidia screwing around with the cost of the GPU or something to that extent? Kept the price of manufacturing them super high
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I keep hearing this but I have never found concrete proof and most links go back to web forums. Is there any concrete proof that this being the reason for the OG Xbox's short lifespan?
 
[360] 82,100
[3DS] 145,000
[PS3] 53,000
[PS4] 225,000
[WIU] 105,000
[XB1] 121,000

Let's see how this month goes...
 
A_Gorilla said:
I keep hearing this but I have never found concrete proof and most links go back to web forums. Is there any concrete proof that this being the reason for the OG Xbox's short lifespan?
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Hmm upon a bit of googling it appears that 2 things of note happened between Nvidia and MS


  1. MS sued Nvidia about a year into production of the console Albeit this source is not well documented
    In 2002 Microsoft and Nvidia entered arbitration over a dispute on the pricing of Nvidia's chips for the Xbox. Nvidia's filing with the SEC indicated that Microsoft was seeking a US$13 million discount on shipments for NVIDIA's fiscal year 2002. Microsoft alleged violations of the agreement the two companies entered, sought reduced chipset pricing, and sought to ensure that Nvidia fulfill Microsoft's chipset orders without limits on quantity. The matter was privately settled on February 6, 2003.
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  2. Nvidia stopped producing the GPU chips that went into the OG Xbox in August 2005 apparently at the request of MS themselves effectively killing the Xbox about a month before the 360 launched

Obviously it's the second one that is of note although it doesn't clarify if MS ended it because of Nvidia chips being to expensive but I do remember that being discussed before
 
hepburn3d said:
I'm not so much. "some folk" would have to represent a huge number of people to over take Sony at the moment.

I think the thought is if you look at a range of variables you get a feel for a rough idea. My variables are amazon.com top sellers and twitter trends. Just on those my rough idea is a modest bump in sales but not enough to catch up with Sony.

I don't mind being wrong though, is part of the fun.

Like you say, the results will be interesting.
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Yes, I suppose as others pointed out too - the evidence is there, but this month will be artifically higher than it should have been so the gap will be even bigger next month! Ouch
 
I'm torn... Thursday is normally going to be a day I spend reading the npd info and playing on my vita... but it's also the start of the Destiny beta. Sigh. I'll be alternating I guess. Haha
 
Pachter:

PS4: 255K
XB1: 150K
WIU: 67.5K
360: 65K
PS3: 42K

Pachter said:
We expect the new $399 Xbox One SKU without Kinect to help sales, but do not expect Xbox One unit sales to exceed those of the PS4.
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jvm said:
Pachter:

PS4: 255K
XB1: 150K
WIU: 67.5K
360: 65K
PS3: 42K
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What I can't believe is that Pachter is still doing original DS estimates.

I mean really. DS is so dead in the ground this point, it seems a bit silly to predict 700 DS consoles sold this month.
 
SwiftDeath said:
Hmm upon a bit of googling it appears that 2 things of note happened between Nvidia and MS


  1. MS sued Nvidia about a year into production of the console Albeit this source is not well documented

  2. Nvidia stopped producing the GPU chips that went into the OG Xbox in August 2005 apparently at the request of MS themselves effectively killing the Xbox about a month before the 360 launched

Obviously it's the second one that is of note although it doesn't clarify if MS ended it because of Nvidia chips being to expensive but I do remember that being discussed before
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Wasn't the OG Xbox's GPU pretty advanced and a bit ahead of its time? I remember it was some sort of GeForce 3 variant, but I think it had some tech that wasn't really used until the GeForce 4 (I could just be making that up though XD).
 
[360] 54k
[3DS] 115k
[PS3] 38k
[PS4] 247k
[WIU] 110k
[XB1] 167k

I've always been of the impression that price was not the only reason MS has been getting outsold consistently. As strong as the Xbox brand was last generation in US and UK, the PlayStation brand was still powerful enough to hold it's own worldwide. Launching around the same time of each other as well as being the cheaper console diminishes the year head start MS had last year and doesn't allow the message that "Well the only next gen system out right now is...) to spread.

In fact, the message that's being spread is that for a long time, the cheaper console of the two was the more powerful one, and a similar priced sku still doesn't change the fact that someone can get the perceived stronger console for the same price.

It will be interesting to note if the X1 actually DID outsell the PS4, however using the trends we've used every month so far (some Best Buy Districts, Amazon, New Zealand Ledger, etc.), i think its safe to say that X1 will have had a larger bump from last month obviously, but not enough to overtake the PS4.

Exciting times arrives on Thursday (DESTINNNNNNYYYYYYYY)
 
Psycho_Mantis said:
If that WiiU number is close then RIP WiiU.

Looks like no one expects XB1 to over take PS4 but that big of a gap despite price parity in MS's biggest market would be disastrous for them.
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Yeah...Microsoft really needs to make a statement if not by this month, then at least by the Holiday season.
 
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