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Predict the biggest B.O. bomb of summer 2014: Jupiter Ascending Delayed
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smokeandmirrors
Banned
Marvel? Pfff.
I'm so happy he's getting more high profile work.
Lowest common denominator dumb explosiony summer blockbuster. *shrug*
RustyNails
Member
Hercules has bomba written all over it. It's this year's scorpion king.
thegreatchamp
Member
My bet is on Let's be Cops. I saw an early screening in late April and from what the director told us at that time was that it was already completed. It was god awful and had every single imaginable movie cliche you could think of. It made no sense whatsoever and was a complete waste of time.
Fahrenheit
Banned
I might be way off but I think TMNT is gonna bomb. Never heard of a movie with such a negative buzz around it before release.
It's a good thing Godzilla made that money up front. The buzz around that snooze feast dried up real fast.
It's a good thing Godzilla made that money up front. The buzz around that snooze feast dried up real fast.
They appeal to a huge cross section of people of all ages. When I went to see the film it was a very mixed audience. You do that you hit big.
Plus Michael Bay knows how to stage a spectacular action sequence. Most of them make very little sense but people don't care.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Marvel? Pfff.
His thighs/legs just look massive.
RustyNails
Member
Yeah I think GoTG is also a contender for flop. But there's that Marvel logo and it had big explosions in the trailer, so who knows.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
It really is. This will be the biggest test for him and it could actually hurt his brand if it's a colossal bomb, which is possible.
I'm thinking both Hercules and TMNT bomb. What are their budgets?
Barack Lesnar
Banned
I think I read $180 mil for GotG. So it would need 350-400 mil worldwide to break even.
RustyNails
Member
Disney marketed the ever living shit out of John Carter and it bombed miserably. There's only so much you can polish a turd with publicity.
John Carter and The Lone ranger had bad reviews and word of mouth. Everything seems positive for GOTG and I saw it was tracking for a $60-$80m opening weekend
Sho_Nuff82
Member
This thread is going to be really good at identifying who is in touch with general audience vibes and who are living in their own little caves thinking movie success is tied to how they personally feel about something.
So like the NPD bomba prediction threads then.
TrumanBurbank
Member
Movie is getting AMAZING advance reviews and buzz.
That + people love Marvel means you don't know what the fuck you are talking about.
Thankfully we actually get official numbers on boxoffice results instead of having to rely on leaks and second hand information.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
The advertising for GotG has been too good.
It took a single ad to make my 62 year old aunt want to watch it.
I expect it to do pretty well. Especially if word of mouth is favorable. It's first week will look pretty lackluster though I think.
It took a single ad to make my 62 year old aunt want to watch it.
I expect it to do pretty well. Especially if word of mouth is favorable. It's first week will look pretty lackluster though I think.
I think GotG turned it around as the first two trailers for it were fucking horrible for a general audience. No context or explanation as to what the hell was going on.
The one they have at the moment with the 'from the studio that brought you...' is very good and very clear even to an idiot as to what the movie is.
Which makes it even sillier that they were both pretty solid films imo.
I didn't see them at the cinema specifically because of the reviews and word of mouth got to finally see them and discover they were great adventure movies.
The one they have at the moment with the 'from the studio that brought you...' is very good and very clear even to an idiot as to what the movie is.
Which makes it even sillier that they were both pretty solid films imo.
I didn't see them at the cinema specifically because of the reviews and word of mouth got to finally see them and discover they were great adventure movies.
Yup the earlier trailers reminded me of Serenity's which isn't a good thing. GotG is not going to bomb, it's going to cherry bomb (probably make more money than Spider-man especially if we include merch)
Discotheque
Banned
yeah. i hate especially how there was a clear media-bias towards the lone ranger in reviews.
you could argue that it's not a great movie. but you can't argue that it's magnitudes worse than other blockbusters with better reviews. real solid adventure film.
and john carter was fun. i'd have given star wars to andrew stanton tbh.
Here in the UK at least they've ramped up advertising significantly for Hercules it's got next to no competition this week. And the school holidays have just began.
I think it will do well. From someone I know who's seen it and usually can take and leave such movies they said it was fairly enjoyable.
Despite Brett Ratner being a massive bellend.
I think it will do well. From someone I know who's seen it and usually can take and leave such movies they said it was fairly enjoyable.
Despite Brett Ratner being a massive bellend.
I'm bookmarking this, how do you two like your crow served?
I was defending guardians of the galaxy ITT over a month ago and if all goes according to plan
some people will be eating crow.
Of course I am ready to eat crow too if I turn out to be wrong ~_^
I think that this movie will be a big hit. Not Iron man 3 or avengers big but it will surprise many.
12 percent of a plan
Of course I am ready to eat crow too if I turn out to be wrong ~_^
I think that this movie will be a big hit. Not Iron man 3 or avengers big but it will surprise many.
Exterminieren
Banned
The average moviegoer could not give less of a shit about cartoons or video games. Claiming that these characters were in any way known in the mainstream because of them is just absurd.
RDJ was a washed up has been in the eyes of the moviegoing public, Hemsworth was nobody and the characters they were playing (particularly Thor, but Iron Man too) were unknown. Marvel still sold it.
The only two members of the Avengers who were in any way known to the mainstream were Captain America, who was mainly seen as a joke, and Hulk, who had flopped in the cinema before. Marvel essentially managed to build a colossus out of the bits of their universe that no one else wanted.
And_Gignac
Member
Hércules will bomb. GoTG will do at minimum Pacific Rim numbers. Probably more like 550-600m.
TMNT is a wild card. Kids these days barely know about them but could discover to love them like they did with transformers.
TMNT is a wild card. Kids these days barely know about them but could discover to love them like they did with transformers.
Pixel Beak
Banned
Hercules: Atomic Bomba
TMNT: Bomba (Outside of the US)
Guardians of the Galaxy: Bomba (For a Marvel movie)
TMNT: Bomba (Outside of the US)
Guardians of the Galaxy: Bomba (For a Marvel movie)
SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
John Carter was one of the most ineptly marketed movies in recent memory. Read the book "John Carter and the Gods of Hollywood" for details. Epic marketing failure on all levels.
Guardians of the Galaxy is being promoted heavily and quite well IMO. They're targeting comic fans directly and have been for quite some time. They're appealing to older viewers by placing the soundtrack front & center, and by strongly associating it with Avengers, Iron Man and Captain America. There are very frequent commercials on children's TV. The character bios and featurettes have done a good job explaining the setup. They have decent social media marketing. Merchandise is already in stores and tie-ins are in the works. I think this movie is being expertly marketed.
Pretty much every piece of tracking we have had so far for Guardians points to it being successful. Individual NeoGAF posters didn't like the trailers or don't like Marvel, so of course it's going to be a bomb. Never mind the last 4 Marvel films have made $4B combined.
I am going to say that there is no way that Guardians bombs. $150M domestic is the low end if people are disappointed, and I think the film will easily clear $400M worldwide. Given how super hero films have been doing in China this year (all of them were over $90M), Guardians is likely looking at $50-60M+ just from that territory.
I am going to say that there is no way that Guardians bombs. $150M domestic is the low end if people are disappointed, and I think the film will easily clear $400M worldwide. Given how super hero films have been doing in China this year (all of them were over $90M), Guardians is likely looking at $50-60M+ just from that territory.
D
Deleted member 13876
Unconfirmed Member
Just so I have some skin in the game: I don't think Guardians will bomb.
Lucy and TMNT. Breaking even is about the best I see both movies performing. And I'll probably see both in the theater.
GotG will probably do about Cap 1/Thor 1 BO numbers. Maybe a little better. Still, it's great how Marvel is going Cosmic will their MCU, while DC is still 2yrs out with their JL movie.
Have you read the Gaming side at all? Many on GAF hope their rival console's exclusives (for GAF it would be Titanfall) to bomb.
GotG will probably do about Cap 1/Thor 1 BO numbers. Maybe a little better. Still, it's great how Marvel is going Cosmic will their MCU, while DC is still 2yrs out with their JL movie.
Have you read the Gaming side at all? Many on GAF hope their rival console's exclusives (for GAF it would be Titanfall) to bomb.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Haha get that stick out of your ass. People are guessing based on the perceived quality and appeal from the trailers and budget.
Fucking relax.
Father_Brain
Banned
As you say, the definition of "bomb" is kinda subjective, but it's tracking surprisingly low (around $40m domestic opening last I heard) for a heavily marketed, Michael Bay-produced film based on a familiar cartoon/toy IP.
gutter_trash
Banned
Tom Cruise Ground Hog Day video game or Angelina Jolie Disney Villain movie
gutter_trash
Banned
I hope Jupiter Ascending fails, the Wachowski siblings are horrible story tellers
dantevsninjas
Member
Jupiter Ascending moving out of Summer removed the shoe in.
Hercules and TMNT are the two biggest contenders now, and I have to give it to TMNT because Hercules may play well overseas.
People who think GotG will bomb are out of their minds. Even if the movie turns out to bad (which none of the evidence points to), Marvel has yet to have a truly terrible film and could pull in people based on their rep alone. Tie that in with the fact that there are plenty of people that would see a Marvel film that they were only marginally interested in because of how the story may tie in to the movies that they do care about and you've got a movie that will do well. I don't see a bomb in Marvel's future until they make a film that manages to counteract the good will they've built up over the last few years.
Hercules and TMNT are the two biggest contenders now, and I have to give it to TMNT because Hercules may play well overseas.
People who think GotG will bomb are out of their minds. Even if the movie turns out to bad (which none of the evidence points to), Marvel has yet to have a truly terrible film and could pull in people based on their rep alone. Tie that in with the fact that there are plenty of people that would see a Marvel film that they were only marginally interested in because of how the story may tie in to the movies that they do care about and you've got a movie that will do well. I don't see a bomb in Marvel's future until they make a film that manages to counteract the good will they've built up over the last few years.
AmuroChan
Member
Where did you get the $380m number from? Either way, the movie still grossed $700+m WW. I don't see how that can be considered a bomb. Underperform? Sure. But bomb??
SocksAndShoes
Banned
No way GotG is gonna bomb.
Jupiter Ascending and Lucy are gonna flop big time.
Jupiter Ascending and Lucy are gonna flop big time.
At $700 million ww I'm sure ASM2 made a profit. Doesn't stop it from being disappointing for Sony though when it didn't experience growth from the previous movie.
I'm cautious to say it'll bomb, but I do think that TMNT will have a disappointing box office. The best thing going for it right now is the success of the Nickelodeon TV show and merchandising. Outside of the little kids I've spoken to who want to see it, I don't think there is much interest towards the movie, and that the older crowd will still be watching GotG instead. Of course I could be completely misjudging the market here.
I'm cautious to say it'll bomb, but I do think that TMNT will have a disappointing box office. The best thing going for it right now is the success of the Nickelodeon TV show and merchandising. Outside of the little kids I've spoken to who want to see it, I don't think there is much interest towards the movie, and that the older crowd will still be watching GotG instead. Of course I could be completely misjudging the market here.
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