Iron Man was known to the general public before the movie. It's one of the reasons the movie opened to such a high gross it's first weekend.
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Predict the biggest B.O. bomb of summer 2014: Jupiter Ascending Delayed
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Iron Man was known to the general public before the movie. It's one of the reasons the movie opened to such a high gross it's first weekend.
……forgetit
Member
How is TMNT offensive? Though I get how Lucy's premise could pass someone off.
Pretty sure Lucy is tracking to do 40 million opening weekend. It looks like it will be this years Now You See Me type surprise hit.
AmuroChan
Member
It's produced by Bay, but directed by Liebesman. Outside of Transformers, there has not been a single movie, produced or directed by Bay, that has reached $800m at the WW boxoffice. So no, I don't think TMNT will come anywhere close to $800m.
GuitarAtomik
Member
Are we really having this convo again? Most people were aware of Iron Man, but that's not why they went to see it. People don't just go to movies in droves because they are aware of a character's existence. The trailers were why they went to see it.
Father_Brain
Banned
Judging from what Orci/Kurtzman have said recently, it may have been enough of a disappointment to force Sony to rethink their entire plan for the franchise.
Yeah I think Sony is rethinking everything for sure, but it's also true that in any practical discussion I don't think ASM2 would be classified as a "bomb". I think that it's more of the case where Sony had really big ambitions for the Spidey franchise with the expectation that the sequel would outperform the first film steadily. When that didn't turn out to be the case, they're getting cold feet now.
That and RDJ performance was also a big reason why people went to see it. Word of mouth spread about how good he was in it.
You do have to wonder what Marvel Films will do when he decides his had enough of he role as his the lynchpin imo.
Word is that the only press screenings will occur literally one hour before it opens to the public. So like, Thursday 7PM or something
Father_Brain
Banned
Oh, sure, "bomb" would definitely be hyperbole in ASM2's case. I should have made that clear.
He's done with the franchise after Avengers 3. That hasn't been explicitly confirmed yet, but it's all but certain given RDJ's advancing age and the fact that IM4 wasn't included in his contract extension last year.
Marvel has plenty of time to plan for that, though. That's actually one reason why Phase 3 might be a year longer than expected (last week's release dates announcement suggests Avengers 3 might be a 2019 release rather than 2018), and why they're releasing three films for the first time in 2017 - they want to launch as many potential franchises as possible before most of the Phase 1 leads' contracts are up.
GAF was saying that too. We had 20 page threads on the subject. One guy was predicting $140M domestic total for Avengers, even though Iron Man 2 made close to that in its first weekend.
Part of it is that you just get a lot of uninformed posters in threads like this. Look at how many people are calling for Lucy to flop after myself and others have posted about the early tracking pointing to a good opening. Hell, when this thread was posted early weekend numbers were already pointing to a $60-70M opening for Maleficent.
BronsonLee
Member
WHAT? Where the fuck did that come from?!
I could see the argument about TDKR vs Avengers, but Jesus
Joss Whedon hate. Him and a few others were convinced that Whedon's Hollywood track record meant that general audiences hated him and would not watch a film by him. Nevermind that 90%+ of moviegoers don't give a shit who the director of a blockbuster is.
That and it was the usual DC vs Marvel / Nolan fanboys vs everyone else crap.
BronsonLee
Member
That's silly. The only movie I know he did was Serenity, which was basically closure to Firefly more than any attempt to make tons of money.
I wish it had and we had gotten more movies D:
Predicting TDKR over the Avengers months before release was fair. One was coming off the third highest grossing domestic film of all time. The other was coming off a series that never broke $320M. However, anyone who was predicting less than $300M domestic for the Avengers in 2012 was crazy.
samus i am
Member
Hercules Lucy
BronsonLee
Member
On the flip side, at least Maleficent survived the stiff competition from A Million Ways To Die In The West!
And goddamnit it doesn't matter if it comes out in summer, winter, spring or fall, Jupiter Ascending is always the answer
Jupiter Ascending:
Then
Now
Forever
All we know is >$45M
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Best way to look at it. I thought Avengers would do well, but TDKR would still make more at the box office. But then Avengers came with that $200m weekend and it was nuts. There was only one poster (that I can remember) that thought it would be that big on opening weekend and make over $600m domestic, and we all laughed at him before. But he was the one that got the last laugh.
Remember that poster named TDK Rises lol.
The main guy who had hate for Avengers was Good Job Bob. That guy was nuts in his hate.
If you factor in the huge development and marketing costs, then add the fact Sony don't make any money from merchandise due to selling the rights to Disney. They wanted the movie to generate over a $1B, and it fell well short. I'd be suprised if they made any money off it anyway.
Not Spaceghost
Spaceghost
I'm putting a vote in for Guardians of the Galaxy.
It might do fine, but I think it will be far below marvels expectations.
I am fully ready to eat crow on this though, but I could see it turning out like Scott Pilgrim.
It might do fine, but I think it will be far below marvels expectations.
I am fully ready to eat crow on this though, but I could see it turning out like Scott Pilgrim.
Hard.
BronsonLee
Member
Prepare yourself, Spaceghost! I've got the bird all set up for your dinne-
Oh wait you're not Spaceghost, never mind
Marvel don't care
It's tracking for a $60-$70 million domestic opening and I doubt Marvel are expecting ridiculous numbers out of something so niche even comic book fans are in the dark.
Not Spaceghost
Spaceghost
Don't forget I take my birds with gravy, parm and black pepper.
What's the budget of the movie like 150-200mil? It will definitely break even which I guess means it won't be a bomb but I could see it performing rather poorly over all.
Father_Brain
Banned
Given how some other sci-fi blockbusters have performed much better overseas, I can actually see GotG doing suprisingly close to TWS numbers ($454m outside the US). I'm not betting on it breaking $400m overseas, but I don't think it's impossible.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Yikes, confirmed? That's awful.
Foxy Fox 39
Banned
Yup.
Grizzlyjin
Supersonic, idiotic, disconnecting, not respecting, who would really ever wanna go and top that
$20 million for Herc?! Jeez. Does that even cover The Rock's paycheck after all is said and done?
Source is this guy on HSX, who's reliable.
He actually said mid-20s, not 20 million... still lousy, though.
Is your surname "waddy?" I must know.
To be fair to him, Ray Subers of Boxofficemojo jumped on the fanboy record and predicted a $215M opening for TDKR as mojo's official weekend prediction. Even without the Colorado shooting that was never happening.
We will see. I love Marvel movies, and I would love to see this movie succeed but IMO its been advertised awfully. Ill be seeing it myself, but I don't expect much out of its performance, and I fear it will be their first bomb in a long time causing some hesitancy on future products that don't quite fit in the existing MCU mold.
Would love to be wrong. I'd eat the crow smiling.
……forgetit
Member
Ehh, could be decent. I thought it looked bad at first, but the later trailers looked alright.
Alcoremortis
Member
The guy also wrote friggin Toy Story. Which, I dare say, is a hell of a lot more well known than any of the mediocre things in between.
This, coupled with the glowing reviews so far, will win a good chunk of MovieGAF (especially WaffleTaco) a complimentary dinner courtesy of James Gunn & Kevin Feige.
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