OK, I'll do the maths.
Just for you.
According to numbers on Nintendo's web site (where they are being paragons of transparency compared to other platform holders to be honest) as of June 30th, 36.67 million games have been sold on Wii U. They also have a list showing sales of the top-ten selling games on the platform as of March 31st. All of these games are first party games and they add up to 13.75 million. Since then Mario Kart has been released. Also, Nintendo have released other games not on the top ten and these top ten games will have gone on to sell more units between March 31st and June 30th. So, mostly to simplify the maths, I'll make the assumption that all these Nintendo games not accounted for sum up to about five million units. In that case half of the games sold on their platform are first party, half are third party.
So let's say that, on average, after shops have taken their cut, and shipping costs etc that publishers, devolopers and platform holders make $30 to share. Let's say that the platform holder takes $10 in royalties. If so, Nintendo makes $30 on their own games on their own platform and $10 from third party games on their own platform, and they would make $20 from their games on someone else's platform.
So, let's say that the amount of sales they get from their own games on their own console is Y. Therefore, since about half of the games sold on their platform are third-party, the amount of third party games sold is Y as well. If so, they would make 30Y + 10Y = 40Y dollars by keeping their games exclusive on Nintendo platforms.
Let's instead say that they were to release their games on Xbox, PS and PC and not have their own platform. I'm a Nintendo optimist. If they do the right thing and go third party, I can easily see them being the biggest publisher around. I think that they have a huge potential in that case and would sell at least three times as much of their own software as they do today. This is a conservative estimate, the difference in installed base will be much larger than that. In this case they would sell 3Y copies of their own software and zero third-party on their own software. So they would make 20*3Y = 60Y dollars in this scenario.
So, according to the maths, if you accept my assumptions, which may not be water proof but still, they would make 50 % more money if they released their games on Xbox/PS/PC.
Now I'm very interested in seeing you people who claimed that it would make just as much sense for MS and Sony to release their games on other platforms do the maths to show that. I predict I will have to wait for a very long time. Likely, many of them will not even acknowledge this post.
It would be totally awesome if you could respond to AniHawk's post, here:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=123868043&postcount=552
AniHawk said:i understand your intent, but it comes across as port begging because it's something that was brought up again and again even when the company was doing well. i also feel there's very little critical thinking involved with making the suggestion.
right now there's only a possibility, one that can't be proved either way until it happens, that nintendo's games would do well on the xbox one and playstation 4. for starters, i don't know where this idea in particular comes from. it paradoxically marries the ideas that 'nintendo's games are fantastic so people would buy them on a bigger userbase' and 'nintendo needs to stop supporting their own hardware because no one is buying their games for them!' like nintendo's real fanbase is this group that may, hypothetically, buy their games in droves. well who's to say that instead of 'i'll wait for the console to be $150 with a game' doesn't get replaced with 'i'll wait for it to be $20'?
beyond that, there's very little evidence the games nintendo makes would see massive success on these platforms. the ps4 and xbox one aren't made for kids and families, and neither are their games. they're built for 18-34 year old males with lots of disposable income. multiplayer is not centered around the living room, but behind a paywall. there's nothing inherent to these machines that's immediately attractive to nintendo's traditional fanbase, and nintendo would pretty much be all alone in forging that path.
the suggestion that nintendo needs to make games for other platforms usually comes with the suggestion that nintendo's games would be 'better' by virtue of being on those platforms. it's unrealistic in how it portrays nintendo's development process and games development in general. nintendo's hardware is weird and hard for third-parties to use because nintendo's hardware is built for nintendo's software developers. it's relatively easy for them to use and accommodate themselves with. if they had to start making games for other platforms, there would be some quick, cheap looking ports for starters followed by a long silence as resources are shifted around and people have to learn new hardware very quickly. budgets and manpower would increase for certain games and others would need to cease development entirely. more than likely, focus on just the best-performing franchises would increase and risky titles would come out with far fewer frequency than ever before.
if they never do anything else with them, it basically rids the company of their hardware division, which has been around for about forty years. it brings in a ton of revenue for the company, which allows them to make and publish the two dozen or games they produce each year. without that, their model will have to change very drastically, further affecting budget, manpower, etc.
plus you need to factor getting into what sony would take, what microsoft would take, learning their process, learning their restrictions, and competing against third-parties with established fanbases (well i've been over that one sorta already).
it's just a bad idea based on the premise that something might actually happen.