The Formula 1 2014 Season |OT| Who Will Win? Nobody Nose
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massivekettle
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Kvyat?
Or maybe Button on a 1-yr deal type that would leave to make room for Kvyat in 2016.
Never forget the brand. I don't think he fits the RBR character model "charisma". Bianchi is a Ferrari Academy Driver, why hire him if you have your own academy?
I don't believe the rumors though. It seems far fetched but maybe there is a reason Ron Dennis keeps waiting to announce his 2015 drivers. So maybe there is fire in those rumors after all. But if Vettel doesn't move, I don't see Alonso doing it either especially going back to Ron Dennis. Eddie Jordan last year confirmed the Alonso-McLaren rumor for 2015 but then Whitmarsh was moved to the garden.
Meanwhile I will keep believing that the craziness is bound to happen in 2016. Vettel to Ferrari, Alonso to Mercedes and Hamilton to McLaren.
After Ricciardo instead of Kimi and Kvyat instead of Felix da Costa decisions, I will trust everything they decide to do. They nailed it completely while everyone called them crazy for making those decisions. Now they were proven right in both cases.
But do you really believe Vettel will leave now? RBR wants one more year of Kvyat before promoting him so they aren't going to let him leave without him buying out the rest of his contract, right? That isn't going to be exactly cheap...
"Yeah, remember that one time where none of your youth drivers were ready for a drive in a top team and instead of promoting a inexperienced young driver you gave that drive to an experienced good driver?
I am totally not signing an all-expense-paid training contract that pretty much guarantees me a well financed and planned training to get into F1 with you, fuck you Red Bull, you suck!"
My money would be on 2016 as well. Yet on the other hand, ALO would be a damn big domino to fall.
I would not go as far as to call them "right", but rather "lucky". There have been big discussions held at RBR when WEB left, and the team wanted to take another experienced driver. In the end Marko talked Mateschitz to overrule.
That´d be funny, if these discussions hadn´t been held before.
This doesn't make your statement any less ridiculous though.
RBR signing someone outside their program could easily make sense this time. A 19 year old and a 17 year old currently in the feeder team next year and 2 guys have gotten the promotion and are clearly the best of the best they've had so far, so they have to make that grade to be be promoted.
Just to make it clear: I did not state how I see it (which would probably be way closer to your pov), but how its seen in the circus. Because exactly this discussion was held when WEB resigned. I personally have never seen one of those young driver contracts, but only heard bad things a la "you have to sell your soul" for those benefits you listed.
I see. The way I see it is they pay for your entire career up to where they either release you or give you a (paid for) drive in F1. They spend time with you, educating you, preparing you mentally, preparing you via simulators, test runs.
All in all, it's a sweet deal even if you don't end up getting a Red Bull drive, so turning it down just because they don't always have their own drivers promoted to their top team seems unlikely. Unless you have similar offers from other teams, I suppose it could be a factor when choosing between Mercedes or RBR for instance, but still.
From what I heard, the point is that you are not free to pursue other opportunities, if the RB thing doesn´t play out the way you expected. You´re bound to them come what may. Which only makes sense, as long as there is some light at the end of the tunnel.
Beats me as well. Especially so if BUT leaves.
massivekettle
Member
If Vettel stays at RBR, then Button at Ferrari for a 1-yr stopgap contract before the Vettel/Hamilton sweepstakes start in Silly Season 2016.
McLaren started making moves to get back to the top 18 months ago, Ferrari/Fiat started making moves after Bahrain earlier this year.
Not to mention there's clearly a change of philosophy happening at Ferrari, personified by Kimi's signing last year. Along with Honda's MASSIVE investment into McLaren. If this was still Whitmarsh-McLaren he'd be insane but Ron probably knows what he's doing.
Idk why Alonso would want 100m over three years though. Would make more sense to let the team put that money into the car/personnel but idk, maybe owning one cycling team isn't enough
If what ksharp said about the 'Schumacher clause' is true then it means Honda could persuade McLaren to take a Japanese driver to replace Magnussen in 2015/2016. I'd rather see Magbussen stay though.
massivekettle
Member
McLaren started making moves to get back to the top 18 months ago, Ferrari/Fiat started making moves after Bahrain earlier this year.
Not to mention there's clearly a change of philosophy happening at Ferrari, personified by Kimi's signing last year. Along with Honda's MASSIVE investment into McLaren. If this was still Whitmarsh-McLaren he'd be insane but Ron probably knows what he's doing.
Idk why Alonso would want €100m over three years though. Would make more sense to let the team put that money into the car/personnel but idk, maybe owning one cycling team isn't enough
But McLaren's chassis is likely 0.5-1s slower than Ferrari's at this point. And the Honda engine is an unknown at this point. Ferrari, thanks to mileage and experience, is primed to improve its engine for next season.
Ron has been in charge since early 2014 and one can argue that their 2013 season (under Whitmarsh) was leagues better than their 2014 one (given PU disproportionate advantage). McLaren has scored 30% of their points in Australia (their only podium(s) so far). That's how bad things are for McLaren.
Let's not forget that Whitmarsh gave the go-ahead to scrap the 2012 car and build a new car for 2013, rather than just evolving the concept they already had
I don't know why we're all disregarding Honda. No one knew the Mercedes PU would be as good as it was; Honda have been waiting to get back in for a few years so I have no doubt that they started working on their PU at least two years ago (could be totally wrong, who knows).
You're right about the chassis though. The only argument I can find for McLaren is that they just signed Prodomou(?) and he'll be able to work on the 2015 car.
I just don't understand how this move would benefit Alonso. I can totally understand his frustration at Ferrari and him wanting to leave makes perfect sense. But to leave Ferrari and join McLaren seems to be taking a big gamble on their promises that they're really going to improve. Then again, I guess the negotiations might have revealed things to him which aren't clear to us right now. Hamilton's move to Mercedes was also seen as somewhat risky for his future, and that sure turned out fine. Lol.
Mercedes had been making far more public signings though. Picking up all the big names from McLaren, Lotus, and Ferrari, so Hamilton's move wasn't as risky as Alonso to McLaren now imo. Mercedes were always going to be a top team, McLaren meanwhile still haven't won the Constructor's since '98.
It'll be funny when Kimi/Vettel wins the 2015 WDC in a James Allison Ferrari
It'll be funny when Kimi/Vettel wins the 2015 WDC in a James Allison Ferrari
massivekettle
Member
Let's not forget that Whitmarsh gave the go-ahead to scrap the 2012 car and build a new car for 2013, rather than just evolving the concept they already had
I don't know why we're all disregarding Honda. No one knew the Mercedes PU would be as good as it was; Honda have been waiting to get back in for a few years so I have no doubt that they started working on their PU at least two years ago (could be totally wrong, who knows).
You're right about the chassis though. The only argument I can find for McLaren is that they just signed Prodomou(?) and he'll be able to work on the 2015 car.
- From 2013, IIRC, it was "known" or believed that Mercedes was the most advanced in its V6T project. The extent of its advantage over the other PUs was unknown but people thought the Mercedes engine would be "up there"
- Honda's last PU, the V8, was dogshit (less powerful and drivability). Brawn GP drivers confirmed it as soon as the Mercedes V8 was put in the car for the first time. Their V10 was good, but not great
- Honda started working around probably 2 years ago at most, but it took Mercedes and the others much more time to get the project going so 2 years in hindsight is not that long a timespan. Also, they won't have the benefit of actual mileage in an F1 car that the 3 others have
- Regarding the 2013 car: McLaren and Button infamously said that the 2013 car was a WDC/WCC winning car. Computer simulations had the 2003 car as a title winner:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/21274591
(and the usual Gary Anderson hype BS)
Mercedes had been making far more public signings though. Picking up all the big names from McLaren, Lotus, and Ferrari, so Hamilton's move wasn't as risky as Alonso to McLaren now imo. Mercedes were always going to be a top team, McLaren meanwhile still haven't won the Constructor's since '98.
It'll be funny when Kimi/Vettel wins the 2015 WDC in a James Allison Ferrari
Lewis's move was seen as risky given how terrible Mercedes' form was during 2012 (esp. at the end of the season). They were doing 1 extra pit stop and were dog slow in races. Despite signing all those big names, they had yet to get together as a team, which they did for the 2014 car (and onwards).
And at the time, Lewis was at McLaren who had the fastest car (arguably) in 2012 and was a title contender.
rockman zx
Member
I think this is the main problem, he is burned by Ferrari, not only the car but probably the environment too, since the little fight with Montezemolo last year, basically they left him alone in the woods to be devoured by the Italian press day after day.
I don't agree with him going to McLaren, but the "burned" factor is important, I left jobs because of that, is something you can't avoid unless you need food in your table.
I have the feeling that he will end his career with 2 titles, frustrated and probably in bad terms with McLaren, such a shame from someone with so much talent.
But staying at Ferrari isn't doing exactly the same? How many years have they promised they were going to improve? How many scapegoats have been created?
At least McLaren under Ron (this year doesn't count since he returned when the car was already done) always showed they were competitive and one thing was guaranteed: they knew how to develop the car during the season unlike Ferrari. Bouiller might be an asshole but he's a competent one. Promodrou is one of the highest regarded designers in the paddock. Well he "helped" design every competitive RBR car...
And Honda is no slouch either. Last year everyone heard the rumors around the paddock that Mercedes engine was going to be the best one by a big margin. Most didn't believe but they were true. Now the same rumor mill seem to indicate that Honda will be at least competitive right off the bat. If it's true then McLaren will benefit from being the exclusive car with exclusive software and Honda totally focused on them. Maybe not the team to win in 2015 but in 2016 why not? Hamilton did the same. Took a risk and "lost" 1 year and then he's right there to gain the reward of his patience and right decision making.
I can understand Alonso thinking that Ferrari just aren't going to be able to make a decent championship run any time soon, but like duckroll, I just don't get the McLaren move.
Honda must've done an even better job of convincing Fernando that they'll dominate F1 than Mercedes did convincing Lewis...
I'm not surprised that he's leaving Ferrari at all though. I'm surprised that he's joining McLaren. Unless the logic here is that McLaren is most competitive team he can actually join at this point? That seems weird. We're talking about Alonso here, the best driver on the entire grid!
Sure, but McLaren failed to deliver a title winning car in 2010, most of 2011, and their pit stop blunders and reliability arguably cost Hamilton the 2012 title. There are definetly similarities between Hamilton's move and Alonso's rumoured move. Even in so far as Mercedes signing the Concorde agreement (and I assume lumping more money into the team as a result) after Hamilton's signing. I think it was afterwards anyway. - Similar to Honda pouring money into McLaren.
I'll grant you it's a stretch, but there's potential there. Ron has been particularly quiet for a lot of this season, I'd assume - if Alonso moving is true - that he's been moving mountains to go balls to the wall next year.
I love the silly season
With Vettel apparently staying at Red Bull it really does appear that McLaren is his only choice left.
I believe Ferrari did the better job there when they hired Kimi instead of following with the Nico Hulkenberg hiring like it was all agreed to. After that the destiny of this marriage was sealed imho.
LdM was pissed off after Alonso's public criticism of the car and decided to show Alonso who was the boss and that he wanted him to prove that he was in fact the savior of the team and that the pundits were right that he was the one overdriving that car all those years. That's why Alonso made the comment after Bahrain (?) about beating Kimi, the savior of the nation. That's why Marca published a news story praising the Lord Alonso about his achievements in a Ferrari car and how he passed the "cotton test" that LdM wanted so much.
Unless they put Helmut Marko locked in a prison, Alonso will never drive a Red Bull. The best case scenario for Alonso would be a vacant Mercedes seat but Lauda isn't a fool and let his best driver go away. He knows if RBR gets competitive next year, Hamilton will be the only one capable of fighting for the WDC.
Big Takeover
Member
Things change so quickly in F1, and when you're a superstar like Alonso you are the impetus for change. See Mercedes where Lewis' signing not only prevented the Board from pulling the plug, but they actually doubled down. A whole entourage of awesome stuff comes with the very best guys. Sponsors, engineers, team focus, etc. You can't get blood from a stone (Ferrari), but you can really swing most team's fortunes just by signing on the dotted line.
massivekettle
Member
Rumours coming from... Honda?
Because I have never read anything that positive from "insiders" about Honda's V6 project. It might turn out that they have something very good, but right now it doesn't look like their engine will be a world beater Day 1.
I agree. Like I said, Alonso probably knows something we don't if he's actually willing to go through with it. I just find it really puzzling because of his history with McLaren and how poor their performance has been lately. If anyone can turn this all around though, it's Alonso. He's been working miracles at Ferrari these few years too. It just wasn't enough.
massivekettle
Member
I think they will be OK, not great, not bad/unreliable. Everyone is making changes to their PUs so no one is standing still at all.
I think Alonso leaving doesn't have that much to do with McLaren being a force next season (could be, but unlikely) but more about him being sick of Ferrari/Italian press. Besides, he's being paid handsomely as well.
Also, the entire 2007 saga is now history. Hatchets buried and all.
Big Takeover
Member
I believe Fernando would leave just on Ferrari's assertion that he sign a long term deal. If I were him, I'd never put the remainder of my eggs in a single basket. Not the red one at least.
I agree that Honda won't be remarkable in either direction. Merc is still king until further notice.
I agree that Honda won't be remarkable in either direction. Merc is still king until further notice.
I do not believe it until Eddie The Pink Shirt Oracle drops it
Where could Mag go?
Dick move by McLaren if true. I love Jenson, but he only has another year left in him, 2 max, while Magnussen's going to keep improving.
Maybe they'll loan him out to Sauber/FIndia for a year, then bring him back once JB retires?
nature boy
Member
Because it's pretty much given he's leaving Ferrari (I think it's more likely 2015, why stay in a shitty Ferrari instead of already driving your car for the next 3-4 years) and he's certainly not retiring.
And wow
Dodged a bullet.
"However a source close to the Italian team tells me that none other than Lewis Hamilton now figures high on Maranellos wish list, and indeed the Briton might be more easily able to walk away from Mercedes in 2015 than some might believe. Hes certainly less tied down than Vettel." -Adam Cooper
http://adamcooperf1.com/2014/09/25/has-ferrari-targeted-hamilton-as-alonsos-replacement/
http://adamcooperf1.com/2014/09/25/has-ferrari-targeted-hamilton-as-alonsos-replacement/
Pffff, those youngsters aren't ready for McLaren, they should go with Barrichello and De la Rosa instead!
Do you have a source? That's god damn incredible and explains how he only lost a few positions despite the start issue.
I can see Hamilton repeating his Mercedes move to Ferrari in 2016. Ferrari should be back up to scratch by then, as I've said before I have faith in Mattiacci and I guess now I have faith in Marchionne too.
Where does that leave Vettel and his LOI?
Here in Brazil we have the saying "panela velha é que faz comida boa". Means "an old pan is what makes good food". Who knows...
brotkasten
Member
Well, I certainly wasn't expecting Alonso to leave after this year. I like him as a Ferrari driver and love his skill, but I can't see myself cheering for him in a different car. However, I definitely don't blame him for that move. I don't think anyone could.
That is pretty awesome, if you ask me.
That is pretty awesome, if you ask me.
nature boy
Member
Read it here: http://thejudge13.com/#Lightening Lewis trying to find a secondary source but no luck so far :\
Osiris
I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
More ammunition for the Alonso/McLaren deal.
Prior to today, McLarens' drivers "Heritage" page on the website had no entry for Fernando Alonso, MCL instead whitewashing his brief stint at the team.
Today, inexplicably, they added him to the heritage roster.
See the webcache of the site before his addition, and see how it appears now.
It's a done deal.
Prior to today, McLarens' drivers "Heritage" page on the website had no entry for Fernando Alonso, MCL instead whitewashing his brief stint at the team.
Today, inexplicably, they added him to the heritage roster.
See the webcache of the site before his addition, and see how it appears now.
It's a done deal.
massivekettle
Member
That was well known though. Even during the grand prix. Lewis "moved" because of his faulty launch sequence system, not because he voluntarily did so.
Magnussen is already 22 - he will improve in terms of polish, racecraft, etc. but unlikely in terms of pure pace, which he is missing. He is struggling to beat, let alone match, Button. Not just that - Button is currently schooling him more often than not. Not exactly impressive from KM.
And you have Stoffel Vandoorne who's an even more impressive prospect waiting too... Throwing him Lewis-style into a McLaren was probably the greatest mistake he ever made. He just did not meet expectations so far this year.
Oh wow... so much for "best driver in F1" moniker.
nature boy
Member
It is, if it was deliberate, which would put him into supernatural territory.
Was it a fluke or did he react extremely well under pressure?
https://twitter.com/pitlanetalk/status/515193524812533760
Putting their (little) credibility on the line.
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