Stardust_Comet
Neo Member
I'm guessing there are people who are fans of the consoles, and fans tend to have very passionate feels about the thing they're a fan of. I suppose supporting this company rivalry is another outlet for that passion.
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Pachter Predicts: Xbox One outsold PS4 in September (dance, you puppets)
- Thread starter Guevara
- Start date
I'm guessing there are people who are fans of the consoles, and fans tend to have very passionate feels about the thing they're a fan of. I suppose supporting this company rivalry is another outlet for that passion.
That won't be the case if you're a reasonable/objective person. It's completely fine to own/prefer just one console and still have a respected opinion as long as you don't get blind sighted by your preferences.
I personally don't care who sells the most. The prediction just seems to be way off. I would just like more reasoning Behind his prediction.
Shots fired
lol
Pachter is good people. I miss Pach-attack, it became seriously entertaining suspiciously after Bosman started working at GT.
But apparently it's no more.
Aquamarine
Member
1) Companies decide their future plans based on sales numbers.
2) Some people here actually have stock in the Big 3 / work in the industry, so they care very much how those companies perform financially...sales contributes to profits.
3) People that really love video games...care about the health of the industry / the health of their favorite studios. Sales numbers give us a direct indication as to how the industry is performing.
4) It's a fun meta-game. Why not do it? It's fun to participate in the arguments.
GlamFM
Banned
Pachters tweets sum up the popular theory on fanboyism pretty well.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
The PS4 has that brilliant co-op play deal with Farcry 4 and haven't they also secured a marketing deal with the next-gen version of GTA5?
If so, I don't think Xbone is winning any month this year, and a remaster of old Halo games isn't going to change that..
If so, I don't think Xbone is winning any month this year, and a remaster of old Halo games isn't going to change that..
You'll be damage controlling on Thursday when the NPD numbers come out.
That was his reasoning ? oooooh boy
>-Baron-Spamedi-<
Member
Nonsense. Competition could lead to innovation but so can lots of things.
The drive to increase market share by broadening the appeal of a product for example, can lead to innovation in the absence of direct competition.
The Albatross
Member
Something people don't like to admit is that Pachter is usually more right than he is wrong. He has a few high profile "wrongs" that are drummed up, but most of his forecasts are pretty accurate. Although, in this case, I don't think he's right. It could be a closer month but I think it would be hard for MS to suddenly jump Sony for the month.
Pachter is also completely right that the only people who care about these numbers outside of Microsoft and Sony (and financial analysts like Pachter) are fanboys. I'd go further to say that it's fanboys who have personality disorders where they need groupthink to justify a $400 purchase for themselves... Because god forbid somebody would spend $400 on something that isn't the clear market leader, right?
Pachter is also completely right that the only people who care about these numbers outside of Microsoft and Sony (and financial analysts like Pachter) are fanboys. I'd go further to say that it's fanboys who have personality disorders where they need groupthink to justify a $400 purchase for themselves... Because god forbid somebody would spend $400 on something that isn't the clear market leader, right?
Aquamarine
Member
People give Pachter WAY too much credit around here.
He analyses a TON of companies every month...does anyone really think he puts this super-professional, super-deep analysis into his sales predictions?
"Aquamarine Predicts: PS4 outsold Xbox One in September" should be a thread.
And that's the problem. He's presuming an overall win based on a one week promotion and doesn't even take into account the PS4 Destiny bundle. Nevermind it's a 5 week month month of which in Destiny's launch week Sony said the PS4 sold alot.
GlamFM
Banned
On XBOX ONE or overall?
You learn to ignore those.
Me? I just think Pachman has always been kind of a dofus. Likeable but still a dofus
On Xbox One or total? I think MCC could beat the Xbox One version of GTAV.
Eh I never really understood it either. It's fun to watch sales numbers every once in awhile, but some take it way to seriously. Just look at some of the responses to a "prediction" that Pachter made. Why would anyone take something like a Pachter prediction so seriously? Just enjoy it for what it is and see if it comes true, but don't take it to heart and get all offended just because he predicted that your favorite console might lose for a month. Who cares? What do you benefit from this prediction coming true or not?
I just feel I bit sad because Pachter's twitter will be attacked by "fanboys" on Thursday after the NPD showed he is wrong
I hope something like that won't actually happen, that sounds really stupid. Again Pachters predictions affect noone, there is literally no reason to attack him.
Sikamikanico
#1 Dad
Thanks for the responses people - I hadn't thought of it from an enthusiast perspective.
The Albatross
Member
People give Pachter WAY too much credit around here.
He analyses a TON of companies every month...does anyone really think he puts this super-professional, super-deep analysis into his sales predictions?
"Aquamarine Predicts: PS4 outsold Xbox One in September" should be a thread.
And not only that, but his job is to provide this analysis to companies/individuals, and I'd wager he gets more into the minutiae of forecasting for his job... Tweeting about videogame forecasts and doing the Pachter video series on GameTrailers are basically hobbies.
Zuhzuhzombie!!
Member
Tied? Possibly.
Outsold by 150,000 units? Improbable.
Outsold by 150,000 units? Improbable.
kinoki
Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Overall. Personally I think it'll be GTAV (PS4) > HMCC (XBO) > GTAV (XBO). Does that seem probable?
Stardust_Comet
Neo Member
The more I see tweets from this guy about the prediction, the more I am convinced that he is trolling.
ethomaz
Banned
It is already kind of happening.
The only way to that not happen is Xbone winning September NPD.
Aquamarine
Member
Pachter focuses on specific companies.
You know...Buy / Sell / Hold analyses for Netflix, Time Warner, Amazon, Nintendo, etc. And those tend to be quite in-depth.
The video game sales prediction stuff is a fun thing he does every month on the side. He spends an hour thinking about it at a very cursory level...maybe calls up a GameStop manager and a Best Buy manager to get a small sampling of the market...and posts a quick note to his clients.
THAT'S IT. Go to the actual NPD Prediction Thread and you will find lots of people more well-informed and more thoughtful than Pachter will EVER be on this issue.
Yeah, GTAV combined sales will most likely beat MCC sales.
GeordieMark
Member
Yes you are though. Why did my comment read like that to you when it isn't what I said?
Why should I respond to your strawman when it isn't what I said in the first place? As far as I'm concerned, what I said was clear.
There are many things that drive innovation, and I'm well aware of that. My comment stands though. Competition is one of them.
ethomaz
Banned
I guess GTAV (XBO) > MCC (XBO).
GTAV is huge and it will be the best selling remaster (?) ever.
I just feel I bit sad because Pachter's twitter will be attacked by "fanboys" on Thursday after the NPD showed he is wrong
If he's right about the Xbone outselling the PS4 on Thursday fanboys everywhere will attack him regardless.
If he's wrong on Thursday he'll simply jump into his Porsche and go for a drive thinking about all the awesome things that he can buy with his immense disposable income.
Either way Pachter wins.
Like the house, Pachter always wins in the end.
Kazuma Kiryu
Member
I was just making joke of Hindle, you can play whatever you want and call yourself a gamer, I'm totally fine with it.
IMO this biz its all about Dominance not Competition, they are all seeking that as fast as possible and holding it as long as possible.
3rdamention
Member
"Maybe not?" He flat out already said it worked and is already backtracking.....And never even mentions the Sony deal with Destiny.....
Pachter already backtracking from his prediction? Sounds like it....
GeordieMark
Member
Again, did I say it was the only factor?
You are ignoring the fact that in this particular circumstance, there is an obvious competition at work. We are not talking about a situation where there is only one player.
This is a US NPD thread, not an anecdotal thread about what's happening in your Australian home town.
AyaisMUsikWhore
Member
Shots fired
What does he gain by provoking an entire fanbase?
It's like he is calling for his own trolling.
I just don't get it.
TheSlySoul
Member
Indeed.
I think if they brought back the promotion and did it throughout November, then Microsoft could secure November since Call of Duty + Halo.
The promotion was done right before Destiny to spite Sony. There has not been a system seller yet for Xbox One. PS4 is getting by word of mouth and marketing alone right now.
kinoki
Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
I stand corrected. Yes, of course GTA > MCC even when only looking at XBO.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
On Xbox One? Absolutely.
It seem there has been a common theme of late. Sony fans calling out blatant lies and their response is we're rabid fanboys
Keeping the status quo isn't competition.
Good competition is when the market shifts on mass by consumer choice and competitors need to pull out all the stops being creative with new ideas that are better and offering better value to attract consumers.
If you want a console example.
Xbox versus PS2.
Microsoft brought PC power, broadband, hard drive standard, Xbox Live while not a first showed how good online could be done. Crazy amounts of game investment and other innovations. Microsoft believed they could shake up the market and changed the game.
Sony being older that generation reacted with highly competitive pricing and game investment while half heartedly competing in the online space. Something at least being so dominant.
Now compare that to the following generation, entertainment, online and games. Sony went crazy with hardware, side tracked with Blu-Ray, the high price. Microsoft rushed and invested heavily in games and online, later with entertainment. Wii blew the doors off. Sony and Microsoft reacted with Move and Kinect. Sony slowly caught up with Xbox Live, the games were coming thick and fast, Plus arrived etc. However over at Microsoft, not much was going on, they were content, Sony in turn were content for the most part. The status quo had already set in.
Current generation, what has changed other than both Sony and Microsoft consoles being very similar, one is winning but not dominating, Microsoft are improving but healthy competition I'm not so sure, if anything we are getting back to the status quo which started mid way through last generation. Sony are content at their performance so far, Microsoft want to do a bit better but upset the apple cart, I don't think so which isn't great competition from either side.
Good competition is when the market shifts on mass by consumer choice and competitors need to pull out all the stops being creative with new ideas that are better and offering better value to attract consumers.
If you want a console example.
Xbox versus PS2.
Microsoft brought PC power, broadband, hard drive standard, Xbox Live while not a first showed how good online could be done. Crazy amounts of game investment and other innovations. Microsoft believed they could shake up the market and changed the game.
Sony being older that generation reacted with highly competitive pricing and game investment while half heartedly competing in the online space. Something at least being so dominant.
Now compare that to the following generation, entertainment, online and games. Sony went crazy with hardware, side tracked with Blu-Ray, the high price. Microsoft rushed and invested heavily in games and online, later with entertainment. Wii blew the doors off. Sony and Microsoft reacted with Move and Kinect. Sony slowly caught up with Xbox Live, the games were coming thick and fast, Plus arrived etc. However over at Microsoft, not much was going on, they were content, Sony in turn were content for the most part. The status quo had already set in.
Current generation, what has changed other than both Sony and Microsoft consoles being very similar, one is winning but not dominating, Microsoft are improving but healthy competition I'm not so sure, if anything we are getting back to the status quo which started mid way through last generation. Sony are content at their performance so far, Microsoft want to do a bit better but upset the apple cart, I don't think so which isn't great competition from either side.
GeordieMark
Member
I'm guessing he just got a bit miffed and lashed out. He probably feels like he already provoked them, so may as well say what he thinks anyway.
Is he really surprised by this - it is the internet. You could have an opinion that fake turf is better than grass and you would get hate. How about he ignores the hate and instead focuses on the more reasoned responses by folks.
Version 3.0
Member
If anyone is a "fanboy" - ie. letting his personal preference or loyalty color his expectations - it's Pachter. At least vs. Sales-Age, not the internet at large.
The Albatross
Member
Not overall, but very good chance on Xbox One alone in 2014. Long term, GTAV will almost definitely outsell MCC on Xbox One, and absolutely across all platforms. GTAV on 360 outsold the top selling 360 Halo game (Halo 3) almost 2:1.
GTAV, across consoles, sold about as many copies in one year as every Halo game has ever sold in almost 15 years. I think Halo series has GTA V beat, but not by a lot. Halo series is at about 36m sales over 14 years, and GTAV alone is at 34.5m after 1 year.
Stardust_Comet
Neo Member
I'm almost certain the guy purposely made this prediction to get Sony fans to call Pachter out on it, just so he can have a reason to point, laugh and yell "Fanboy!".
Red Chocobo
Banned
If he is proven wrong, can we finally ban his predictions from Gaf?
Generally don't read these threads let alone post in them. Sales aren't really a thing for me purely because they don't effect me directly.
Have a PS4 and Wii U and have the White Xbone bundle turning up at the end of the month so maybe it doesn't make much of a difference what happens sales wise in comparison to somebody who maybe only owns one console.
If there's a game I've played and I enjoyed it then on a really basic level it's good for me that it sells well as that can make a difference to the game and/or franchise moving forwards.
I certainly don't measure anything about games on how many copies a particular game has sold simply because many of the games that I've enjoyed just aren't on the same scales as the annual November franchise updates that really pull in the money.
Have a PS4 and Wii U and have the White Xbone bundle turning up at the end of the month so maybe it doesn't make much of a difference what happens sales wise in comparison to somebody who maybe only owns one console.
If there's a game I've played and I enjoyed it then on a really basic level it's good for me that it sells well as that can make a difference to the game and/or franchise moving forwards.
I certainly don't measure anything about games on how many copies a particular game has sold simply because many of the games that I've enjoyed just aren't on the same scales as the annual November franchise updates that really pull in the money.