This is a fair point. Games used to take 4-6 hours to beat in the 8 and 16 bit days. In fact, it wasn't until the PSX that game-length really started to balloon, and by the time Xbox/PS2/NGC were out it was the norm.
Games used to survive as single-player only games (or couch multi) by being phenomenally hard to beat and/or requiring they be beat in a single sitting. So, yeah you can beat Contra in less than an hour... but good luck actually doing it.
Now days there are games that cheat their way to 12 hours with back-tracking or an open world that takes 20 minutes to move between missions. Or, like a lot of open world games has 5 minutes of gameplay followed by 10 minutes of driving to the next spot for 5 minutes of more gameplay to complete a mission. Games have found ways to pad out their game time... sometimes for gamers benefits, but a lot of time not really.
To your point, the market answer seems to be to remove borrowing or used game sales and move to a digital distribution platform for these sorts of titles. Then it's a question of will people be willing to spend 40 dollars for a 3 hour game?
I do feel price point shifting (and obviously the production value cut that tends to come with it has actually been quite successful.
I don't see many people complain when an indie game that cost them $20 is a 5-7 hours long singleplayer experience, and some of them get to the million sales mark or beyond (albeit after notable discounts).
Of course, most of these games don't look like The Order 1886. When people pick up Shadow Warrior on Steam they understand that they're not going to get production values through the roof.
Similarly multiplayer only games have also adjusted to the market by heavily going f2p or at least with a notably lower intro price. Evolve seems to be struggling with its current state since it didn't embrace the trend.
Ultimately this threads and the Titanfall threads (debating whether a MP only game is worth full price) ultimately simply prove that value is inherently subjective. There's nothing wrong with considering the length of a game when making the decision whether to purchase or not. However I think some people tend to forget that the value they put on the length of a game is highly subject, and not an objective measure of the games worth.
Personally I'm not opposed to paying full price (for the right game) for either a MP only game or for a shorter single player game. However in either scenario it is slightly less likely that I will buy the game, and more likely I'll adopt a wait and see position - make sure the reviews are strong and the MP stays active.
These games also have to compete with the titles that do it all at the same price point or less.
GTA V offers a huge open world, tons of side activities, and expansive multiplayer all for $60. It seems like a tremendous bargain compared to buying something that's a short singlepalyer experience or content light online only game, and we see its sales volume respond in kind.
These games also have to compete with GTA going on sale for $40 or $20 eventually as well. Do I buy The Order or Evovle for $60, or GTA for $20? I can go back and buy something that has a lot of content like Mordor or Dragon Age for cheap too or boot up some League of Legends or Hearthstone for free.
No kidding. The idea that I might be able to get through this in a couple sits, and maybe even platinum a game (for the first time ever)? This is super appealing.
This title is an obvious miss for the core of the core that spends tremendous time playing games, but for the mass market? Gorgeous visuals, controls that are seemingly not intimidating, with a big story idea? May be enough to make it a mass hit.
Guess we'll see. One would hope the market would be big enough for products of all types and sizes.
Out of curiosity, which games do you feel have been notably successful with The Order's business set-up in the past ~2 years?
I'm curious about some recent use cases for comparison since I'm having trouble thinking of too many. Even TLOU had multiplayer and they did support that for a while post launch.
Though there is also the issue of how many games like that have even been made.