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[LCfiner]

Gruber thinks there will be a gold milanese loop. I doubt it since it couldn't have a magnetic closure without being gold plated, which they clearly won't do based on all the other gold elements available in apple watch. The gold link bracelet I could see since it would still function the same.

I generally like Gruber’s take on things but I feel like he’s in over his head with this watch stuff. his thoughts prior to the launch event compared to his commentary afterward, plus lots of his comments on band pricing and Apple’s role in the market just feels… off.

I think a good example is his guess that Apple will launch ten thousand dollar gold bands. Not every gold watch for sale has a gold band. there’s lots of nice gold watches that come with leather bands or two tone bands (steel with small gold links)

that he thinks Apple has enough cachet to successfully launch a gold smartwatch at 10k is one thing. That he now thinks they’ll double that with a ten thousand dollar gold bracelet option just strikes me as ridiculous.

Gruber’s firmly entrenched in the idea that Apple has the ability to command the same prices as Rolex, AP or JLC, despite there not being any evidence that watch enthusiasts will give Apple this kind of money for a mass produced smart watch. So, naturally, he thinks they’ll offer a $20k version…

 

[TheOnlyOneHeEverFeared]

€300 sub, yes. €300 up, no I will not.

 

[Guess Who]

Gruber’s firmly entrenched in the idea that Apple has the ability to command the same prices as Rolex, AP or JLC, despite there not being any evidence that watch enthusiasts will give Apple this kind of money for a mass produced smart watch. So, naturally, he thinks they’ll offer a $20k version…

Yeah, this is immensely baffling to me. No one is going to pay anywhere near the same price for a mass-produced made-in-China smartwatch that they do for a handwound Swiss-made Rolex.

 

[Chittagong]

I don't think Gruber's speculation on Apple Watch is generally very informed, but I do agree that Apple is almost obliged to make a $10-20K version.

- Oligarchs, sheiks and what not use iPhones
- They also use expensive watches only
- Apple Watch is meant to be an essential companion
- For the ultra rich glancing an expensive watch has more grace than fiddling with a pleb phone
- If there is no $10K version, they either have to
-- 1 wear something 'cheap'
-- 2 not benefit of an Apple Watch

Even if it was not exactly in Apple's ethos, the fact that Edition even exists tells that they understand this dynamic.

In fact, I can well see that in a few years we have Edition shop-in-shops and standalone shops. Like Nokia stores had for Vertu.

 

[PSGames]

Most apps actually run on the phone, using the watch as a kind of external screen, so to use those apps requires a connection to the phone. I'm sure the time-telling bits will work without a phone nearby, but not much else. Apple did say you can store music on the watch, so you might be able to use it as a music player away from the phone.

So in theory one would only need to upgrade their phone to increase functionality/speed of the watch instead of buying a whole new watch. Something most iphone users do anyway every two years. The watch becomes an expensive accessory that anchors you to the iphone ecosystem.

Pretty ingenious when you think about. They get to sell an expensive watch without consumer fear of it being 'outdated' quickly. Plus it ties consumers into the Apple ecosystem long term.

 

[Danchi]

Yeah, this is immensely baffling to me. No one is going to pay anywhere near the same price for a mass-produced made-in-China smartwatch that they do for a handwound Swiss-made Rolex.

To be fair, since the beginning he's been speculating that the Edition collection has to be made in the USA (like the Mac Pro) for these prices to work. He's even said the same about the stainless steel model.

 

[mcfrank]

So in theory one would only need to upgrade their phone to increase functionality/speed of the watch instead of buying a whole new watch. Something most iphone users do anyway every two years. The watch becomes an expensive accessory that anchors you to the iphone ecosystem.

Though the lack of some sensors, such as GPS, are the obvious low hanging fruit upgrades for the Apple watch and you are not going to get the ability to have a gps tracked run with just your watch by upgrading your phone. If they can get gps and wifi into the next system on a chip and swap out your S1 with it, that would be pretty cool.

 

[LCfiner]

I don't think Gruber's speculation on Apple Watch is generally very informed, but I do agree that Apple is almost obliged to make a $10-20K version.

- Oligarchs, sheiks and what not use iPhones
- They also use expensive watches only
- Apple Watch is meant to be an easential companion
- For the ultra rich glancing with an expensive watch has more grace than fiddling with a pleb phone
- If there is no $10K version, they either have to
-- 1 wear something 'cheap'
-- 2 not benefit of an Apple Watch

Even if it was not exactly in Apple's ethos, the fact that Edition even exists tells that they understand this dynamic.

In fact, I can well see that in a few years we have Edition shop-in-shops and standalone shops. Like Nokia stores had for Vertu.

I see this POV but I don’t see why Apple “needs" to serve that market of oil tycoons. they don’t make gold iPhones but other companies have modded them for the super rich. They’ve decided to make a gold watch, yes, but they’re not obligated to make gold bands, too. that market is small (much smaller than the upper middle class folks who spend 4 figures on rolex, omega, etc) and Apple could let the gold bands be made by other companies. the same ones that bling out iPhones.

But I suppose my own biases creep into my posts as I find Apple’s potential foray into a Vertu-like business with bling materials offering the same functionality as steel models but with 5 figure pricing to be, well, tacky.

 

[Guess Who]

To be fair, since the beginning he's been speculating that the Edition collection has to be made in the USA (like the Mac Pro) for these prices to work. He's even said the same about the stainless steel model.

There's been nothing to suggest that's happening, rumors point to them being made in China, and I certainly feel like Apple would've already promoted that fact by now if it was.

I definitely don't think the steel one, in particular, has any chance of being US-made.

 

[Danchi]

There's been nothing to suggest that's happening, rumors point to them being made in China, and I certainly feel like Apple would've already promoted that fact by now if it was.

I certainly don't think the steel one, in particular, has any chance of being US-made.

Yeah, I've read that article. He doesn't say what model he's looking at, does he? Just "Apple watch" which presumably means the stainless steel version. I agree with you that the stainless steel model will most likely be made in China, but I don't think it's far fetched to think the gold model won't be.

In the podcast I linked to earlier Ben Thompson mentioned that the "made in" moniker refers to where the assembly was finished (as in, an iPhone is "made in China" but a lot of the work is also done in Taiwan and South Korea). So, in theory, Apple could have the components shipped to them, complete the assembly in the US, and say US-made, no?

 

[LCfiner]

they could but they’ll be called out on it almost immediately.

 

[Chittagong]

But I suppose my own biases creep into my posts as I find Apple’s potential foray into a Vertu-like business with bling materials offering the same functionality as steel models but with 5 figure pricing to be, well, tacky.

No I'm with you, I find it incredibly tacky. I don't like the idea of Apple Watch Edition instead of just a great, well engineered core product at all. But it seems that the Vertu territory is what they are gunning for with that. And quite a precedent it is, too - they used to be Series 40 phones, identical guts as in Nokia's cheapest candy bars, just in a blinger case.

 

[ZhugeEX]

but personally I would go for the near-identical look-a-like and save myself $500.

Where as others would think the opposite.

I have the same thinking as you but even in China the rich would want to own the real thing.

 

[Danchi]

they could but they’ll be called out on it almost immediately.

Again, forgive my ignorance, but isn't that how it works with the Mac Pro?

Apple is still buying the components from Samsung, LG, etc., no?

 

[nhlducks35]

Yeah, I've read that article. He doesn't say what model he's looking at, does he? Just "Apple watch" which presumably means the stainless steel version. I agree with you that that stainless steel model will most likely be made in China, but I don't think it's far fetched to think the gold model won't be.

In the podcast I linked to earlier Ben Thompson mentioned that the "made in" moniker refers to where the assembly was finished (as in, an iPhone is "made in China" but a lot of the work is also done in Taiwan and South Korea). So, in theory, Apple could have the components shipped to them, complete the assembly in the US, and say US-made, no?

Pretty sure it would say "Assembled in USA"

 

[Danchi]

Pretty sure it would say "Assembled in USA"

So "made in China, assembled in the USA, and designed by Apple in California"?

I'm genuinely curious what the legal requirements are for saying where something was made if anyone can shed some light on it.

 

[Deku Tree]

If the apple watch already went into production in China then there is no way we would not have seen mucho leaks already. Either it's not in mass production yet or its not being assembled in China IMO.

 

[Guess Who]

If the apple watch already went into production in China then there is no way we would not have seen mucho leaks already. Either it's not in mass production yet or its not being assembled in China IMO.

What would there be to leak? We've already seen the thing.

 

[Timbuktu]

So "made in China, assembled in the USA, and designed by Apple in California"?

I'm genuinely curious what the legal requirements are for saying where something was made if anyone can shed some light on it.

For reference, 'Swiss made' watches from wiki

Accordingly, any mechanical watch in which at least 80% of the production cost is attributable to operations carried out in Switzerland would be considered as a mechanical Swiss watch. For other watches, particularly electronic watches, this rate would be 60%. Technical construction and prototype development would moreover need to be carried out in Switzerland. Raw materials, precious stones and the battery would be excluded from the production cost. The Swiss movement in the existing ordinance already has a value criterion, namely the rate of 50%. Considering that here, too, the definition needs reinforcing, the draft amends these value criteria. For mechanical movements therefore, the rate would be at least 80% of the value of all constituent parts. For other movements, particularly electronic movements, this rate would be 60%. Technical construction and prototype development in Switzerland would also be a requirement in this case. The draft also stipulates other provisions concerning the definition of Swiss constituent parts and assembly in Switzerland.

 

[mrkgoo]

In a way, I agree with you.

I like that Apple is trying to approach the whole thing with a major emphasis on the traditional watchmaking industry.

But there's something that they'll never be able to reproduce with the Apple Watch... and that's the timelessness of handmade watches with insanely precise tiny mechanical complications that outlast a lifetime.

And that's what lends value to a proper timepiece, and historically has allowed for such objects, even though "technological", unlike say, a bracelet, and pendant or a ring,... to also be made out of gold, an investment material.

So in the end, even though it's a watch, and Apple are set on passing the impression of understanding, respecting and trying to position themselves with the top watchmakers, Apple are still just making a "simple" smartwatch out of gold, which technically isn't much different from making a phone out of it too. It's an option. But an option that panders more to vulgar, noveau riche kind of spending, and within reason, since we're talking about gold on disposable electronics.

However, I'll give some credit to Apple and wait for tomorrow's event. Maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised by pricing and/or upgrade programmes presented.

Oh I totally agree. My point was its about as much perception of the product than the product itself. They want to angle it as if it were a traditional watch even if that isn't so.

Pricing of products doesn't really relate to what it costs to produce (really it's just a minimum), but rather what people will pay. As a business you always charge as high as you can to perceived value and what the market will bare while considering overheads and physical numbers.

 

[S¡mon]

Where as others would think the opposite.

I have the same thinking as you but even in China the rich would want to own the real thing.

I mean, that's the appeal of luxury products though, owning the real thing.

Yes, of course, but at $749 I think you're still going to have a lot of regular customers who want a step up from the Sport edition, but are not willing to pay nearly double that ($1300) just for another band.

If you're getting the Apple Watch Edition (gold), than surely, for (nearly) all of those customers it's all about showing off and having the real thing...

But the regular and Sport Apple Watch still seem very much aimed at customers with lower incomes. Most of those people won't buy a band that's more expensive than the Apple Watch tself.

Edit: of course, that's assuming Gruber's predictions are correct.

 

[subrock]

My final prediction for the Edition: "Call for pricing"

 

[LyleLanley]

My final prediction for the Edition: "Call for pricing"

That would be ridiculous. I hope it happens.

 

[iMax]

My final prediction for the Edition: "Call for pricing"

Apple Watch Edition
Price: If you have to ask, it's not for you.

 

[Majine]

I'm gonna talk to a clerk that I'm interested in Edition, and then chicken out right before I'm paying. What a rush!

 

[hohoXD123]

I don't think Gruber's speculation on Apple Watch is generally very informed, but I do agree that Apple is almost obliged to make a $10-20K version.

- Oligarchs, sheiks and what not use iPhones
- They also use expensive watches only
- Apple Watch is meant to be an essential companion
- For the ultra rich glancing an expensive watch has more grace than fiddling with a pleb phone
- If there is no $10K version, they either have to
-- 1 wear something 'cheap'
-- 2 not benefit of an Apple Watch

Even if it was not exactly in Apple's ethos, the fact that Edition even exists tells that they understand this dynamic.

In fact, I can well see that in a few years we have Edition shop-in-shops and standalone shops. Like Nokia stores had for Vertu.

These oligarchs can get diamond encrusted iPhones, they won't resort to either of those options if Apple doesn't offer a premium watch. Having said that, they're gonna offer a premium watch.

 

[JCreasy]

The pricing discussion is so depressing and anxiety inducing.

I just want the stainless steel Apple Watch. I shouldn't have to worry about what it cost. But when it keeps coming up, it makes me question if I really need the watch - like I feel I'm being absurd. Mind you, I've bought the new iPhone every year since 2007.

I can't be alone in this.

 

[LyleLanley]

The pricing discussion is so depressing and anxiety inducing.

I just want the stainless steel Apple Watch. I shouldn't have to worry about what it cost. But when it keeps coming up, it makes me question if I really need the watch - like I feel I'm being absurd. Mind you, I've bought the new iPhone every year since 2007.

I can't be alone in this.

I can tell you right now that you don't really need the watch.

 

[subrock]

The pricing discussion is so depressing and anxiety inducing.

I just want the stainless steel Apple Watch. I shouldn't have to worry about what it cost. But when it keeps coming up, it makes me question if I really need the watch - like I feel I'm being absurd. Mind you, I've bought the new iPhone every year since 2007.

I can't be alone in this.

I think $599 is my pain limit. I'm going sport with black sport band if the stainless ones really do go into the stratosphere

 

[sc0la]

I generally like Gruber’s take on things but I feel like he’s in over his head with this watch stuff. his thoughts prior to the launch event compared to his commentary afterward, plus lots of his comments on band pricing and Apple’s role in the market just feels… off.

I think a good example is his guess that Apple will launch ten thousand dollar gold bands. Not every gold watch for sale has a gold band. there’s lots of nice gold watches that come with leather bands or two tone bands (steel with small gold links)

that he thinks Apple has enough cachet to successfully launch a gold smartwatch at 10k is one thing. That he now thinks they’ll double that with a ten thousand dollar gold bracelet option just strikes me as ridiculous.

Gruber’s firmly entrenched in the idea that Apple has the ability to command the same prices as Rolex, AP or JLC, despite there not being any evidence that watch enthusiasts will give Apple this kind of money for a mass produced smart watch. So, naturally, he thinks they’ll offer a $20k version…

I agree with this and I think it's missing the disruptive aspect price could play. Apple Watch is not going to be disruptive to luxury watch on mechanical function, longevity etc, but their supply chain economies of scale and manufacturing know how means they could very well disrupt on price.

A watch enthusiast still won't care about it if it is half the price of a Rolex, but a luxury shopper who wants a smart watch may. Think the tip top of Edition pricing will be 10k for that reason.

I think they will try to disrupt smart watches on design fashion and integration, while they will try to disrupt luxury brands on price. Each end of the line approaches two markets from two different perspectives. And they will try and sit steel comfortably between those and charge a premium for it because they think people will pay.

 

[Fliesen]

I can tell you right now that you don't really need the watch.

i'm with you.

Even less than a tablet, people don't need a smartwatch.

you want an AppleWatch, and that's fine. There's people who collect 3 different colorways of every new sneaker that Nike releases, even though you realistically only need one to two pairs of shoes, maybe, a year.

If gadgets are your hobby, there's nothing wrong with wanting something for the sheer fact of having it, regardless of whether there's an actual need of it

 

[CreepingFear]

I'm more interested to hear if we are getting new Macbook Airs. If so, will these airs just be refresh current models or the new 12 inch redesign.

 

[infiniteloop]

I'm more interested to hear if we are getting new Macbook Airs. If so, will these airs just be refresh current models or the new 12 inch redesign.

 

[Majine]

Hopefully iOS 8.2 tomorrow as well.

 

[Deku Tree]

I try not to buy a first iteration Apple any product and I haven't worn a watch well since I got an iPhone 1st gen (which is the last time I broke my rule).

That said buying the Sport watch just to try it out wouldn't really set me back even if I replace it next year and it might be fun. Really depends upon what I hear from Apple tomorrow.

Anyway I am hoping Apple brings a new Cinema Display although that's really a low margin product and bottom of the barrel for them in terms of profit considerations...

 

[Fliesen]

I'm more interested to hear if we are getting new Macbook Airs. If so, will these airs just be refresh current models or the new 12 inch redesign.

i don't think they're gonna take away any of the watch's spotlight by announcing a new, (according to rumors) USB-less 12 inch retina macbook air.

That's a device that would require far too much narrative. They couldn't mention this as a sidenote.

though i might eat my own hat tomorrow.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

You guys crazy if you think steel watch is going to be cheap.

Apple's gonna milk this one hardcore.

 

[LCfiner]

$500 for a watch with a rubber strap ain’t cheap. and yet, that seems to be the low end estimate now.

I know in the luxury watch world, anything under 4k can be considered cheap. but looking at well made, nicely finished midrange mechanical watches, $500 to $800 can buy you something quite nice. Almost certainly nicer looking and classier than the bulky Apple Watch (taste is subjective, I know, but the nicest Apple Watch is still only just decent looking, imo). Flip-side is the obvious difference in utility.

I’ll be a little concerned if Apple wants to turn their nose away from that market of Seiko and Stowa and Hamilton, etc and aim exclusively at the luxury swiss brands. But that does seem to be the conversation now.

 

[Bomber Bob]

Apple's gonna milk this one hardcore.

You can bet LCfiner's ass that they will

 

[Fliesen]

$500 for a watch with a rubber strap ain’t cheap. and yet, that seems to be the low end estimate now.

i thought the concensus was $350 for the entry level sports watch.

i don't think they'd make the entry level twice as expensive as comparable Android Wear devices.
They followed a similar pricing scheme with the iPad mini, which was 359(or 379?) when compareable Android tablets, like the Nexus 7 cost around 249 to 299 dollars.

not like they wanna join the race to the low-margin bottom, but i still don't think they want their entry model to have such a steep price point.

 

[LCfiner]

You can bet LCfiner's ass that they will

Indeed, I will be more than a little disappointed if the base steel with rubber option is like 750 bucks and getting one with a steel link bracelet is closing in on 2 grand.

doesn’t mean I think they “have” to be cheaper, but I do think this is a chance for Apple to be a bit more aggressive or disruptive, per sc0la’s post

@Fliesen, I meant base level steel watch.

 

[MercuryLS]

As someone who's switched over to Android phones, the Apple Watch isn't in contention anymore. But even if it was, I think it's going to be a bit of a tough sell given the price points. It's just not an essential product like a phone or laptop for a lot of us in the west, even a tablet like the iPad seems to be more of a useful product. For something that can use used for notifications, light interactions and light app usage I'm not sure that $350+ is going to be worth it for the masses. Who knows how it'll do, but I expect it to be a modest hit. At the very least it does look like a compelling product from a usage perspective, it's obvious that Apple spent a lot of time on the UX side of things.

I'll probably just get a cheap pebble in the future for notifications/controlling music. All of these advanced features on a postage sized screen just don't matter to me, especially with low battery life. I'd trade all of that for 7-10 days battery life like the pebble.

 

[SuperEpicMan]

I think the Apple Watch Stainless Steel won't cost more than $500. If you think about it, the majority of Apple's target consumers for this product likely have never owned a smart watch before, a price tag which is more than $500 dollars is going to put people off buying this as it is a product which is completely new to them and they have lived with out so far.

 

[MercuryLS]

I think the Apple Watch Stainless Steel won't cost more than $500. If you think about it, the majority of Apple's target consumers for this product likely have never owned a smart watch before, a price tag which is more than $500 dollars is going to put people off buying this as it is a product which is completely new to them and they have lived with out so far.

The stainless steel link bracelet has links that are each different sizes and take hours to make, they are hand brushed too. These things are going to be a lot more expensive than people are expecting. Apple is going full luxury with these products for everything except the the Apple Watch Sport line.

 

[Fliesen]

Indeed, I will be more than a little disappointed if the base steel with rubber option is like 750 bucks and getting one with a steel link bracelet is closing in on 2 grand.

doesn’t mean I think they “have” to be cheaper, but I do think this is a chance for Apple to be a bit more aggressive or disruptive, per sc0la’s post

@Fliesen, I meant base level steel watch.

gotcha, my bad

As someone who's switched over to Android phones, the Apple Watch isn't in contention anymore. But even if it was, I think it's going to be a bit of a tough sell given the price points. It's just not an essential product like a phone or laptop for a lot of us in the west, even a tablet like the iPad seems to be more of a useful product. For something that can use used for notifications, light interactions and light app usage I'm not sure that $350+ is going to be worth it for the masses. Who knows how it'll do, but I expect it to be a modest hit. At the very least it does look like a compelling product from a usage perspective, it's obvious that Apple spent a lot of time on the UX side of things.

I'll probably just get a cheap pebble in the future for notifications/controlling music. All of these advanced features on a postage sized screen just don't matter to me, especially with low battery life. I'd trade all of that for 7-10 days battery life like the pebble.

you mustn't forget the appleWatch is pretty much the only proper option (right now) for iPhone users. Sure, the Pebble's nice and Android wear might come to iOS one way or another - still, no other smartwatch will be as interconnected with your iPhone as the appleWatch. And owners of iPhones are very much committed to their ecosystem and used to paying premium prices. So due to lack of choice, Apple is in a decent position to ask for a price like that.

Whoever wants an appleWatch will buy one, even at $350. I don't think there's a big number of people who would have reallywanted one, but are deterred by the price point, or people who - due to technical limitations - opt to go for another manufacturer's offering.
I think Apple's in a great position to milk their (incredibly huge) customer base as much as they can with this device.


another thing btw:
i sure would love a watchface that includes current temperature. The more complex ones of the watchfaces listed here "only" show your activity rings or moon phases (?!) ... knowing the outside temperature at a glance sure would be helpful when choosing which jacket to wear. Certainly more helpful than knowing at a glance if we got a full moon tonight or that sunset is gonna be at 7:27pm.

anyone have a preferred stock watchface for now?
i think you can't really go wrong with this one

edit: seems the modular one will allow you to switch through different pieces of information.

I sure hope there's one that shows temperature.

edit2: wellthereitis.gif

 

[LyleLanley]

The stainless steel link bracelet has links that are each different sizes and take hours to make, they are hand brushed too. These things are going to be a lot more expensive than people are expecting. Apple is going full luxury with these products for everything except the the Apple Watch Sport line.

Here is my updated pricing predictions:

Apple Watch Sport: $350+
Apple Watch: $10,000+
Apple Watch Edition: $75,000+

 

[SuperEpicMan]

The stainless steel link bracelet has links that are each different sizes and take hours to make, they are hand brushed too. These things are going to be a lot more expensive than people are expecting. Apple is going full luxury with these products for everything except the the Apple Watch Sport line.

Im thinking the main watch with classic buckle. Fair enough steel link bracelet being expensive.

 

[Danchi]

I kinda agree with Gruber that if the stainless steel model is $500 what's the point of the Sport model? A sapphire screen, ceramic back, and nicer finish seems pretty good for an extra $150.

Seems more "Apple-like" to limit the number of SKUs on release and then sell the original model of the stainless steel model at a discount (at $400, for example) when they launch a revision.

I think they said the Sport version was better for fitness stuff because it was more sweat-resistant or something? It just seems like kinda a weak reason for it to exist if it's only slightly cheaper.

 

[The Elite]

I kinda agree with Gruber that if the stainless steel model is $500 what's the point of the Sportmodel? A sapphire screen, ceramic back, and nicer finish seems pretty good for an extra $150.

Seems more "Apple-like" to limit the number of SKUs on release and then sell the original model of the stainless steel model (at $400, for example) at a discount when they launch a revision.

I think the said the Sport version was better for fitness stuff because it was more sweat-resistant or something. It just seems like kinda a weak reason for it to exist if it's only slightly cheaper.

I have no interest in spending the extra $150. The point of the Sports Model is for someone like me who wants a Smart Watch but doesn't really care about the nicer finish.

 

[LyleLanley]

I kinda agree with Gruber that if the stainless steel model is $500 what's the point of the Sportmodel? A sapphire screen, ceramic back, and nicer finish seems pretty good for an extra $150.

Seems more "Apple-like" to limit the number of SKUs on release and then sell the original model of the stainless steel model (at $400, for example) at a discount when they launch a revision.

I think the said the Sport version was better for fitness stuff because it was more sweat-resistant or something. It just seems like kinda a weak reason for it to exist if it's only slightly cheaper.

The sport model could act like the 16 gb version of iPhones and iPads in the sense that I imagine a lot of people see them and say to themselves that for only $100 more they could get something much better.