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[Tulerian]

I fear I am living in a different world to these executives, and analysts. Record sales for Sony on PS4, and yet all they do is repeat parrot fashion that console are doomed, and this is the last gen.

Either they are so far removed from reality that they are borderline dangerous to the companies they represent, or it's purely self interest and they believe repeating it enough will move people to go buy their products instead.

 

[Smutpeddler]

Let's not pretend that Apple fanatics that wait in line for a lukewarm hardware update and console buyers necessarily fall into the same camp.

You're absolutely right, hence my point, of hardcore buying right away and then the rest will follow later. It's how modern technology is.

 

[Marcel]

You're absolutely right, hence my point, of hardcore buying right away and then the rest will follow later. It's how modern technology is.

I disagree with your point because I don't think people will fall in line as cleanly as you think they will.

 

[rambis]

I'll finally believe this when American internet catches up.

 

[ElRenoRaven]

Oh that time of the gen already? Wow time flies. They do this shit every gen. Oh oh they need to go away from consoles and stream shit. It's not going to happen as long as there are internet caps and speed is as pathetic as it is for a lot of folks still.

Even then as long as people want to feel they own something then a streaming service is not going to take off. Just look at PS Now and Onlive. Neither is doing great at all.

 

[LordBaztion]

I'm ready to download the Xbox app on a W10 set top box and continue playing as I curently do.

 

[Rats Off To Ya]

"Console gaming is dying" is the new "PC gaming is dying."

 

[Schweinehund]

oh but come on. With PS4 selling better than the PS2 did, for sure the death of consoles.

It's pointless to look at one consoles sales. Overall I'm pretty sure they are down compared to what last gen did at this point in time. It may be higher in the US but Wii U + Japan's losing interest has hurt sales significantly.

 

[dose]

Do we need to upgrade our smart TVs every year too? No. Is the PS4 selling incredibly well? Yes. Is this Twitch guy wrong? Yes.

 

[Jamix012]

You know whats funny? Ppl point to last gen as the market shrinking when factoring the Wii to Wii U....but before the Wii.....isnt things on a similar path before the Wii?

Remove the Wii, look back from the NES days to now...and the market is steady, has been for awhile.

Uh??? (these are rough numbers pulled from memory)

NES + SMS + Atari 7800: 60 + 10 + 3 = 73 million
SNES + Genesis + T616 = 45 + 35 + 10 = 90 million
PS1 + N64 + Saturn = 105 + 34 + 10 = 149 million
PS2 + Xbox + GC = 155 + 24 = 22 = 201 million
PS3 + X360 + Wii = 85 + 85 + 101 = 271 million

The market has grown every generation. EVEN if you discount the wii (and say 20 million or so of them were "hardcore") the generation didn't really shrink much last generation. It may well do this generation

oh but come on. With PS4 selling better than the PS2 did, for sure the death of consoles.

This is also no longer true, definitely not the in the US and I believe not worldwide either.

 

[Marcel]

And perhaps Twitch boss should get his own house in order before he starts pulling generic Pachter-tier statements out of a hat.

 

[Cynar]

McNealy and Ellison also bet on thin terminals back in the 90s.

What is different this time?

Hint: nothing

 

[spiderman0616]

Whatever "the future" is for gaming/consoles/whatever, why don't we just sit back and let the gaming companies worry about that? All we have to do is sit back and enjoy the games?

 

[Marcel]

Whatever "the future" is for gaming/consoles/whatever, why don't we just sit back and let the gaming companies worry about that? All we have to do is sit back and enjoy the games?

Let's leave it in the hands of corporations without any discussion or feedback. Great idea.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

I guess we'll find out in about 5 years.

I'd assume if some force starts collapsing the market between now and then, we may see a faster upgrade cycle than the usual 5-7 years. But I think a lot of gamers are quite content with the ease of use of consoles and won't be bothered with alternative solutions unless they end up dead simple. If Windows 10 or Steamboxes or whatever can iterate and improve in ease of setup and ease of use...I suppose it could happen. But it'd be hard to beat the console brand names among the audience most used to console products.

 

[spiderman0616]

Let's leave it in the hands of corporations without any discussion or feedback. Great idea.

Certainly there's always room for discussion, but there's no need for hand wringing. There will always be a market for people who want to play console type games. Some people seem to be in a panic. Who cares if you're running the software locally or streaming it as long as the games keep getting better and run well on the hardware you're using?

Also, who else is going to make these things other than "the corporations"?

 

[Condom]

I think he has a great idea. What's bad about better hardware every 2 years? You can still play on the older box.

 

[Felix Andrews]

Great, sure, let's create even more electrical waste by insisting upon hardware upgrades before the previous generation has actually been rendered obsolete. It's not like phones aren't needlessly expending huge amounts of material resources as it is.

Fucking money grubbing arseholes.

 

[E92 M3]

And perhaps Twitch boss should get his own house in order before he starts pulling generic Pachter-tier statements out of a hat.

Yeah tell me about it lol. His site getting hacked and he's sitting yapping away about something he's pulling out of his ass.

 

[Angelus Errare]

Trying to be a set top box, ala the xbox one 1 is the perfect way to position yourself against a huge number of cheap products that do exactly the same thing.

This. It seems he forgot Xbox reveal. MS did try to present the XBO as a settop "do it all" box. Problem is...why pay $500 for a set-top do it all box, when there are plenty available for $99-149?

 

[Mandoric]

Let's leave it in the hands of corporations without any discussion or feedback. Great idea.

"Feedback" is paid a lot more attention when it comes from the register rather than internet forums.

By that measure, the first generation of STBs - machines built from commodity hardware and running commodity software, with monetization mainly centered around ecosystem services - has been a smashing success, while what's likely to be the last traditional console - heavily specialized for gaming and designed to attract exclusives and pocket their platform fees - has recently had its replacement announced after an uninspiring two and a half years on the market at fewer than five million units sold a year.

The hardware he predicts is already here, and only the business model is missing.

 

[mrklaw]

I'm not sure his point lines up with the headline?

I agree they should move to shorter update cycles to avoid feeling out of date - smartphones have created an expectation around this that probably wasn't there last generation.

But that doesn't mean they have to be set top boxes - which suggests lower power.

You could have a PS4 as-is now, and then in 2-3 years you release a PS4s with a higher powered APU because they can fit more on when they shrink the process. Keep the PS4 around as well.

It would need some adjustment from a software development point of view, but the x86 approach should keep additional costs to a minimum and I don't think that would be too painful to accommodate.

 

[geomon]

Man I can't wait for that all digital future.

Inbox from Twitch: Account Info Comprimised

Well fuck...

 

[pinkurocket]

Man I can't wait for that all digital future.

Inbox from Twitch: Account Info Comprimised

Well fuck...

Hehehe.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

While understandable - that's not necessarily the point. Iphone 4s can still play pretty much every game released in the app store. A phone you buy today is probably going to still play every single game released on the app stores in the next 6 years.

I think what they are saying is that they are missing out on a crowd that always wants the next best shiny new tech - and that there is no reason consoles can't do this and still have all the games play on both consoles with some slight advantages on the newer one.

Imagine if the Xbox One, as an example, had a slightly upgraded console in a year or two. That console enables 1080p, 60fps for every game and it gets rid of the black crush. Otherwise, you can literally use the same disc in the original Xbox One and still get a great experience, but it's just slightly better on the new one.

This is the sort of future Nintendo is aiming for. It will be interesting to see if it can work. IT certainly has, so far, with the New Nintendo 3DS.

that is an interesting prospect, but consoles thrive on install base. Having iterations of hardware with a gen would have an adverse affect on adoption and make consile even more for the core. Consoles hit their sweet spot when they hit sub $300. Also because console games are big online as well, iterative hardware has the potential to skew the competitive balance.

 

[Marcel]

Great, sure, let's create even more electrical waste by insisting upon hardware upgrades before the previous generation has actually been rendered obsolete. It's not like phones aren't needlessly expending huge amounts of material resources as it is.

Fucking money grubbing arseholes.

I wonder if Emmett thought about the greater natural resource and mineral demand his plan would require, a more rapid supply chain, and if companies could execute those in an ethical and responsible way.

I doubt it. It's just some neoliberal vision bullshit where he doesn't really consider how the sausage has to be made.

 

[Fafalada]

The stability of consoles - i.e. pay once for hardware, enjoy software for years on same - is a key attraction.

Argument is that mobile upgrades come up yearly(or even bi-yearly) and people buy them as often as every 2 years while playing the same software.
Which conveniently ignores that mobile-software is firmly stuck on a massively slower "tech-upgrade" cadence mirroring that of console-hw if not worse, but with the added overhead of fragmentation and bad performance on significant portion of the device pool out in the world.

PC falls under the same lines except the mainstream adoption of the upgrade cycle is dramatically slower than on mobile, so it doesn't really work as an argument (and the niche it serves would not be "better" served by consoles trying to compete with it directly).

 

[kaching]

"The problem is, the seven-year upgrade lifecycle doesn't work in the face of the two-year upgrade cycles for every other hardware platform," he said, as reported by The Guardian. “It's so intrinsically built into how consoles get manufactured and made and the full business model, that I'd be surprised to see another generation."

If this is really the crux of his argument, it's poorly framed based on cherrypicking data. Seven-year upgrade lifecycle hasn't been the norm for the console space, last gen was clearly an outlier in that regard. This gen's hardware has all been designed to avoid that same fate already.

And I'm not so sure I'd reference the mobile/tablet side of the market so readily as a counterpoint. Because I could see the 1-2 yr upgrade lifecycles get increasingly stretched into 2-3 yrs by consumers not impressed by increasingly incremental updates on delivery platforms that have clearly matured and begun to plateau in terms of what value exists to upgrade so frequently.

 

[Marcel]

If this is really the crux of his argument, it's poorly framed based on cherrypicking data. Seven-year upgrade lifecycle hasn't been the norm for the console space, last gen was clearly an outlier in that regard. This gen's hardware has all been designed to avoid that same fate already.

And I'm not so sure I'd reference the mobile/tablet side of the market so readily as a counterpoint. Because I could see the 1-2 yr upgrade lifecycles get increasingly stretched into 2-3 yrs by consumers not impressed by increasingly incremental updates on delivery platforms that have clearly matured and begun to plateau in terms of what value exists to upgrade so frequently.

When the Galaxy S5 uses waterproof as a marketing point, you know hardware manufacturers are running out of ideas as to what actually counts as an upgrade.

 

[Game Guru]

Smartphones are the only sort of technology with a two-year life cycle, and that is because they are subsidized with a two-year subscription, so it makes sense to get a new smartphone every two years.

PCs, tablets, televisions, Blu-Ray players, DVD players, and even set top boxes are kept by the masses until they stop working. Consoles generally have a 5 to 6 year life cycle because that's gives a time period long enough for developers to make the most of the hardware while also short enough that consumers don't get bored of the console and move somewhere else.

Really, a console is the best set top box a person could buy since it plays some of the best games out there, plays DVDs and Blu-Rays, and has the majority of media apps and they are guaranteed at least five years of support. In addition, none of the microconsoles seem to have done all that well so far.

 

[Marcel]

In addition, none of the microconsoles seem to have done all that well so far.

Which is why you have the Twitch boss doing not-so-subtle advertising of a model that benefits Amazon's investments in the sector.

 

[Doc Holliday]

I swear I heard this back in 2001

 

[entremet]

Even though the PS4 has been a success, many in the tech space believe platform agnosticism is the future of gaming. This is why you keep hearing consoles are done arguments.

 

[howdyjacker]

*Sigh*

Lots of people with vested interest in this future keep trying to make the rest of us believe that this really is the future.

Please stop.

Sony and Microsoft and Nintendo can keep making dedicated hardware because millions of people keep and will continue to buy into consoles.

Quoted for emphasis and truth.

 

[Opiate]

Yes, that's possible. It may also not happen. Predicting a future 5 years out is very difficult.

It is reasonable to say that the current trends are against 5 year life cycles, and that the basic console archetype is becoming increasingly anachronistic. That doesn't mean it can't survive or that trends might not change later on.

 

[PhantomHound]

I eventually believe we will get to a point where latency is low enough, hell it almost already is, for most games to be delivered via a service similar to Playstation now.

 

[Marcel]

I eventually believe we will get to a point where latency is low enough, hell it almost already is, for most games to be delivered via a service similar to Playstation now.

Data caps and the general shitty state of American telecommunications says we still have a while. To say nothing of the reception of Playstation Now, which had all the impact of a tiny wet fart.

 

[Game Guru]

Which is why you have the Twitch boss doing not-so-subtle advertising of a model that benefits Amazon's investments in the sector.

Of course, but then Amazon and other companies who make microconsoles should be asking themselves why their $99 devices are failing while the $350 XB1 and $400 PS4 are at 30 million combined already.

 

[NastyBook]

Wouldn't a set top box be an always on-line digital sales only device? How would that be received?

*thereitis.gif*

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Yes, that's possible. It may also not happen. Predicting a future 5 years out is very difficult.

It is reasonable to say that the current trends are against 5 year life cycles, and that the basic console archetype is becoming increasingly anachronistic. That doesn't mean it can't survive or that trends might not change later on.

I don't see the problem with a 5 year cycle. Last gen went on way too long, but even then Last of Us and GTA sold gangbusters even with next gen looming.

We are in year two of this gen already and haven't even got a Rockstar, naughty dog, obsidian, etc games, or a price drop yet. There is a ton of mileage left with the current model.

 

[BrokenFiction]

Hardware, hardware, hardware. Apple has convinced so many people that hardware needs to be updated every couple of years.

The future is really is software tools, middleware, and development. You make a better toolset, and you can do anything you want with hardware. Unity is popular right now for a reason.

 

[mrklaw]

Smartphones are the only sort of technology with a two-year life cycle, and that is because they are subsidized with a two-year subscription, so it makes sense to get a new smartphone every two years.

PCs, tablets, televisions, Blu-Ray players, DVD players, and even set top boxes are kept by the masses until they stop working. Consoles generally have a 5 to 6 year life cycle because that's gives a time period long enough for developers to make the most of the hardware while also short enough that consumers don't get bored of the console and move somewhere else.

Really, a console is the best set top box a person could buy since it plays some of the best games out there, plays DVDs and Blu-Rays, and has the majority of media apps and they are guaranteed at least five years of support. In addition, none of the microconsoles seem to have done all that well so far.

But most CE hardware is replaced every 12 months with a new model. So while a consumer may not replace their DVD player or TV every year, whenever they do, they get the most recent features available. If they buy a PS4 in 4 years time, they still get the same PS4 that was out last year.

 

[PopFisto]

They already tried this and it failed many times. What I mean, is they already tried new upgraded versions, like sega 32x or sega cd, and you cannot split your console market and still succeed.

The whole point of consoles is that it is one hardware, and all games are optimised to take advantage of that. I really don't see why Sony and MS would want to release version 1.1 with faster hardware. That doesn't make any sense. Leaving all the early adopters behind? They could easily do that right now, but for the reasons I said, that is not something they would even consider or want. The whole point is creating a large pool to sell software to.

In that case, most of us won't bother buying the system knowing a better one is just right around the corner. Just doesn't make any sense really. The analogy to phones doesn't really hold up. Different thing altogether. Phones are fashion accessories just as much as they are functional, so the upgrade path makes sense. Consoles are a different animal.

And with my experience with PS now, latency issues weren't resolved, and unless they can somehow bend space and time to I can't imagine it will ever get better. Even now you need to hardwire your PS4 to your router, because going wireless is not an option, yet that is how most people will need to play it.

People like and want a dedicated console, with physical games. As long as the games are there, they are not too fussed by better hardware coming onto the scene. If that was at all possible, PC gaming would've taken over long long ago. But, nope, console gamers haven't flocked to PCs because of their aging consoles, kinda strange to suggest improving hardware is a driver of this.

These are not the last consoles.

 

[LAA]

2 year upgrade cycle doesn't mean anything, ha ha, what a terrible argument.
So paying for a new console every two years is definitely going to bring more people in...
Just because some people are content with buying phones every two years doesn't mean everyone does, and consoles are still ahead of phones despite the longer cycles in terms of power.

They already tried this and it failed many times. What I mean, is they already tried new upgraded versions, like sega 32x or sega cd, and you cannot split your console market and still succeed.

The whole point of consoles is that it is one hardware, and all games are optimised to take advantage of that. I really don't see why Sony and MS would want to release version 1.1 with faster hardware. That doesn't make any sense. Leaving all the early adopters behind? They could easily do that right now, but for the reasons I said, that is not something they would even consider or want.

In that case, most of us won't bother buying the system knowing a better one is just right around the corner. Just doesn't make any sense really.

And with my experience with PS now, latency issues weren't resolved, and unless they can somehow bend space and time to I can't imagine it will ever get better. Even now you need to hardwire your PS4 to your router, because going wireless is not an option, yet that is how most people will need to play it.

People like and want a dedicated console, with physical games. As long as the games are there, they are not too fussed by better hardware coming onto the scene. If that was at all possible, PC gaming would've taken over long long ago. But, nope, console gamers haven't flocked to PCs because of their aging consoles, kinda strange to suggest improving hardware is a driver of this.

These are not the last consoles.

Yeah good points. I really don't know how Nintendo got away with the new 3DS...and I actually bought it, ha ha. I think if Sony or Microsoft did that there would be an uproar. I guess because the 3DS is both a portable and usually updated every year justifies it more to people?

First I heard of PS4 Now needing wired? How does vita work with PS Now in that case? Wired is an option for me but bizarrely it's faster with wireless because science... (may be because of the speed of the power plug things going through the wall though).

The way it's going though, consoles are making PCs more appealing actually. At least Microsoft Putting more exclusives on there. I guess I stick with console too because I feel I am a console gamer at heart (though I've warmed up to portable gaming greatly too), and of course the console exclusives.

 

[TylerDurden4321]

Well sure..... once ISPs stop enforcing data caps and actually get off their ass to improve and when latency is not a problem anymore.... So when I'm long dead

Also this

As long as the servers that are running the games of said"gaming services" aren't within 500 miles of every gamer, this just won't cut it for a lot of games. Even if all hardware were perfectly delayless, you would still have a 33ms (16.1 to and 16.1 back) delay due to the speed of light for 3000miles distance to a server running that stuff.

Now add the delay of hardware processing of the ISP's servers in between, the delay of the hardware of the gaming service as well as the delay of the set-top box and your tv and your controller.
This will work for some games, for others it might never, unless there is a countrywide, insane infrastructure for gaming... and not just in the US.

 

[EatMyFace]

Yeah PS4 sales are absolutely horrible.

 

[macewank]

Look, we all know last gen went way longer in the tooth than it should have. That doesn't mean what console platform holders are doing is necessarily wrong.

The typical 5-7 year lifecycle is fine. Console gaming doesn't have to be PC gaming. PC gaming doesn't have to be console gaming. They don't need to have parity.

 

[mckmas8808]

*Sigh*

Lots of people with vested interest in this future keep trying to make the rest of us believe that this really is the future.

Please stop.

Sony and Microsoft and Nintendo can keep making dedicated hardware because millions of people keep and will continue to buy into consoles.

This post is so spot on!

 

[Tigress]

Let's not pretend that Apple fanatics that wait in line for a lukewarm hardware update and console buyers necessarily fall into the same camp.

Exactly.

Twitch guy doesn't take into account the console market expects different things than the market for tablets and smartphones and even the little devices to connect to your tv.

One of the things a console buyer expects when he pays for a 400 dollar console is that he's not going to have to buy another one for a while and that because the length of time it lasts it will accumulate a good library of games (something it would not be able to do in 2 years).

Also, it's not really feasable for console makers to keep updating tech in just 2 years especially when the console itself is costly to them and they make their money off the software sold on it. Apple and the other smartphone makers make money off the hardware itself so it makes a lot of sense to try to push people to update as quick as possible. They are also not trying to push hardware specs that can run a complicated game comparable (but maybe graphics dumbed down but still doable) to what a full PC computer will run either so they don't have to spend as much on the hardware.

His argument shows very little understanding of the console market imho. Some one who is in his own little bubble and is only seeing it from his POV and not paying attention to the actual market that consoles are catering to. He is only considering his own priorities or even only from one market and not from the actual market consoles are selling to.

 

[ghst]

blows my mind how deeply entrenched in its aging preferences this forum can be sometimes.

the writing has been on the wall for some time. you don't have to read it, you don't have to look at it and you don't have to acknowledge it, but to argue it isn't there is taking a willful blindspot and turning it into a fullblown delusion.

one size no longer fits all.