Those pesky text messages.
Tom Brady suspended for 4 games; Patriots lose first-round draft pick; fined $1 mil
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Those pesky text messages.
What did they say specifically? Did any of them specifically state that he wanted them below the limit?
TheDrizzlerJ11
Member
The ones he refused to turn over probably did.
Wait, what?
Wouldn't his messages show up on the phone they had?
The person he sent the texts to would have the messages as well...
darkazcura
Member
I'd say taking the refs' word of what the PSI levels were pre-game as a relevant piece of data is even more intellectually dishonest. He "reverse engineered" the PSI levels from the actual quantifiable data from halftime to judge whether the calculated/predicted PSI levels pre-game matched up with what the refs "remembered". As far as science goes, that is far more intellectually honest than what occurred in the report. Anyway, the section about PSI levels in the report are botched in my opinion. Nothing can be concluded from the section because the refs didn't write down the measurements pre-game. The comparison between pre-game PSI (based on memory) and halftime PSI (actually measured) is nearly worthless.
The Albatross
Member
The notorious text messages (the funny ones) weren't about asking it to be below 12.5, but to be within 12.5 to 13.5, because in October (according to the report) the balls in some game were accidentally inflated by the refs to something like 15 PSI.
JackBauer24
Member
Really.
Then this whole witch hunt is fucking stupid. If that's true, then he should appeal, and he'll probably win.
How likely is it that McNally, after 32 years with the Patriots, or Jastremski, after more than 20 years, decided on their own to intentionally deflate all the footballs below the limit set by the league.
How likely is it that they measured each ball that they deflated?
This has probably been going on for years. How many of the balls that were collected and measured were below 12.5?
Honestly, it seems like a stupid, unnecessary risk to take if you're Brady, considering the small benefit derived from doing it.
Maybe they meant to deflate to 12.5 but went too far? Or maybe they thought the rules were flexible since the refs inflated them to 15 earlier in the season? If the refs put it over the legal limit than surely it's alright to go a little under that limit, right?
We don't bill by the hour though
They didn't say either way. They suggested some nefarious deflating happened.
The evidence shows the deflating went below 12.5.
Whether that was asked for specifically is unknown; all we know is that the Pats refused to let the NFL interview the equipment people about those texts.
It's quite possible it was simply a general order to deflate them a bit, or to get close to 12.5 and McNally went too far.
It's also possible he was asked to deflate them to the 11.5 or so they were measured at.
At the core of the issue isn't even what they were deflated to; the fact they appeared to have illegally tampered with the balls after the officials checked them is the "crime" committed (in a rules sense.)
It's the same reason that the Aaron Rogers comment has nothing to do with this situation; Rogers never claimed to tamper with footballs after the refs checked them.
Elwood Blues
Member
The culture of cheating that is Patriots made him think he was above the law regardless of risk.
The Albatross
Member
http://www.patspulpit.com/2015/5/6/...aulty-science-reason-work-in-the-wells-report
(Note: Link is from SB Nation Patriots Site, so obviously, this is a Patriots fan pointing this out)
The guy who wrote this goes over the text conversations:
Halftime of the Jets Game, October 16th
JJ: Tom is acting crazy about the balls. Ready to vomit
??: K. He saying there not good enough??
JJ: Tell later
October 17th
JJ (to his fiancee): Ugh...Tom was right. I just measured some of the balls. They were supposed to be 13 lbs... They were like 16. Felt like bricks.
JM: Tom sucks...im going to make that next ball a fuckin balloon
JJ: Talked to him last night. He actually brought you up and said you must have a lot of stress trying to get them done... I told him it was. He was right though... I checked some of the balls this morn... The refs fucked us...a few of then were at almost 16. They didn't recheck then after they put air in them
JM: Fuck tom...16 is nothing...wait till next sunday
JJ: Omg! Spaz
October 22nd
JM: Make sure you blow up the ball to look like a rugby ball so tom can get used to it before sunday
JJ: Omg
October 23rd
JJ: Can't wait to give you your needle this week
JM: Fuck tom...make sure the pump is attached to the needle.....fuckin watermelons coming
JJ: So angry
JM: The only thing deflating sun..is his passing rating
October 24th
JJ: I have a big needle for u this week
JM: Better be surrounded by cash and newkicks....or its a rugby sunday. Fuck tom
JJ: Maybe u will have some nice size 11s in ur locker
JM: Tom must really be working your balls hard this week
October 25th
JJ: Size 11? 2 or 3X?
JM: Tom must really be on you. 11 0r 11half......2x unless its tight fitting
JJ: Nah. Hasn't even mentioned it, figured u should get something since he gives u nothing. Granted I already left stadium so unless Dave leaves room tomorrow then it'll wait till next week.
JM: No prob
Explanation, from this pats fan site on SB Nation, but sounds accurate when reading:
Keep in mind this is a Patriots fan site on SB Nation, but when reading the text conversations, it seems to match up.
People, read the report. It's all in there, it's tiring to rehash it to everyone who's too lazy to read the three or four pages or however long the tl;dr version at the beginning of the report is.
McNally inflated the balls to 12.5/12.6 psi, the ref measured every ball and okay'd them, McNally then illegally took the balls to a bathroom where he had enough time to punch a needle into each ball and let some air out and then brought the balls to the field.
You are forgetting that a softer ball is also easier to hold resulting in fewer fumbles...
http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/01/stats_show_the_new_england_patriots_became_nearly_fumble_proof_after_a_2006.html
The link is old but likely still valid...
Edit: The article is interesting in that they looked at the fumble rate over the course of ten years...Starting in the 2007 (coincidentally the year that Brady and Manning asked the NFL to allow each team to supply their own balls), the rate of fumble was immediately halved and has remained so ever since.
TheDrizzlerJ11
Member
They altered the balls after the refs inspected them. If you deflate it before the inspection, fine whatever. But they cheated.
But then they wouldn't let Wells talk to the ballboy a second time. Why?
Yeah that part of it didn't make sense to me either..
But then they wouldn't let Wells talk to the ballboy a second time. Why?
Your words are poetry.
The Albatross
Member
I agree with your summary here, the broken rule for the organization is that equipment people were tampering with footballs after the refs checked them. I think this makes sense if your equipment guy is breaking the rules, the organization gets the stiffest penalty in NFL history ($1m fine, plus 1st round, 4th round picks)
However, Brady is attached to this -- seemingly -- through that text conversation, and that text conversation does not attach Brady to the broken rule, that of manipulating footballs after the ref checks them (regardless of the PSI), but rather, making sure that refs permit balls inflated to 12.5 PSI. There doesn't seem to be anything in those conversations that attaches Brady to an order of mishandling a ball after the ref checks them (what use is the 'rule book' comment in this case if they're doing it after getting the ball from the ref).
They wouldn't let them talk to him a fifth time. They talked to him four times. Kraft said he's part-time and has another job, and it is unreasonable to demand his ass five times. This upset the NFL.
not psycho
Member
I didnt see this posted so I thought it would add to the discussion.
Note, this is the same PHd professor who did a piece before and I remember reading on here in one of the discussions. He is a Pats fan so take it as a salty fan trying to use science to support his claim.
http://drewfustin.com/deflategate/
Huh. He does a pretty good job of debunking the report.
In particular, it is dishonest of the investigators to assume that the official was mistaken about which gauge he used (he remembered using one which showed much less evidence, if any, of deflation) yet also give weight to his memories of the readings (which are not recorded, so apparently he just said stuff like the Colts were likely going for 13 or 13.1 on average, who knows what they actually had, or what the specific 4 balls they tested had).
When you combine the lack of real knowledge about the pre-game readings, the fact that they didn't bother to test most of the Colts balls at halftime (and only tested any after they had time to warm up), and the fact that the official himself remembered using a gauge which did not indicate deflation, only to be overruled by investigators who assumed he must be mistaken... the report is extremely weak.
It does seem plausible to me that Brady was mad about times when he ended up with balls above 12.5, and got on the guys in the text messages about making sure to get them to the minimum.
Dear lord, people are terrible at reading comprehension. Here's the problem with his "science".
They DID measure the game balls at halftime, and at the end of the game.
Between halftime and the end of the game, The Patriots balls and the Colts balls deflated at the same rate. Which, under the Ideal Gas Law that is being misappropriately used over and over again because everyone arguing about it doesn't understand the law in any meaningful scientific way, is what should happen. Same conditions (balls are both kept outside in the stadium during the game), same deflation rate.
Which then begs the question; even if you assume the best case scenario, which is that the Patriots balls were deflated to the minimum allowable PSI (12.5) (and, like always, they were measured prior to the game, if not written down, to have them make sure they are within legal limits), and the Colts balls were at 13 - the rate of deflation for the Patriots balls were double that of the Colts balls while in the same conditions.
Oh, by the way, after the balls were initially measured before the game, when the refs went to go get the balls, they could not find them, because McNally had taken them. He then changed his story multiple times on where he had taken those balls.
At this point, just read the report. The incompetence and lack of basic understanding of people claiming "science" is pretty appalling.
I have a dumb question. If it were really that simple, don't you think they would have already pointed it out?
Brady got caught because the text messages between the two employees pointed out that Brady was the one telling them to do this, and when given the opportunity to show any evidence that he told them "deflate it to the minimum and have the rulebook ready"; he declined to do so. Note that neither of the employees, when interviewed, ever said "Brady asked us to knock it down to the minimum allowable". Nothing of the sort.
What I don't get with that narrative is if brady was mastermind behind them deflating the balls after they've been checked,why would brady make the ball boy bring the rule book on psi levels when the ref inspected them. If he was going to deflate them. why care about having the rules? If they think that he could deflate 12 balls so quickly , brady wouldn't care about the psi level when the ref is inspecting them.
TheDrizzlerJ11
Member
That isn't true. The NFL questioned him before they ever hired Wells. Wells talked to him once and asked for one more interview and the Patriots refused.
Agreed for the most part. Even if he was giving them gifts it doesn't prove he asked them to break any rules; Brady even says in a text that the one guy didn't do anything wrong.
It'll be interesting what comes out of the appeal.
I'm not a patriots fan but I have no interest in seeing Tom Brady branded a cheater if he isn't one. The entire thing is... overblown to me.
All of this is statistically, mathematically, scientifically, and in every single way, WRONG.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=163693363&postcount=1146
also known as @octonion
Look. The only way the report is "wrong" is if the Pats balls started under 12.5, and the Colts balls started above 13.5, and the refs messed up both the first time, and that the laws of thermodynamics change to modify the rate of deflation in the same area at the same temperature between the beginning of the game and halftime versus halftime and the end of the game.
Oh, by the way? That doesn't account for McNally referring to himself, and I quote, "the Deflater", lying about taking the balls after they were measured by the refs but before the game, and having a multitude of text messages talking about deflating the balls illegally in between the refs checking the balls and actually starting the game.
After they found the "Deflater" text, the Patriots refused to make McNally available for interviews, and refused to even tell McNally that Wells wanted to interview him. Brady, when given the opportunity to validate what he told investigators during his interview by providing pre-vetted by Brady's agent printout copies of text messages, refused to do so. Considering Brady is basically the Derek Jeter of football; I find it highly improbable they would accuse him of anything unless they were really damn sure he did something.
I took a couple of Thermodynamics classes.
The way they are applying the ideal gas law is assuming an isochoric process that may not be the case. Assuming it is constant volume, then it would be feasible to use P/T ratio.
My problem with your above is that the balls were kept in the same environment during the halves. If one set is in an insulated locker and the pats' balls were exposed outside on the rack, that would explain the first half. For the second half, the pats then put them in an insulated locker.
I don't know if that happened, but to dismiss an entire claim on an assumption doesn't sound very scientific, does it?
I'm glad someone else sees that the Ideal Gas Law applies to Ideal Conditions.
That said; as pointed out in the report, all of the balls are taken outside onto the game field for the game. So the Colts and Patriots balls were ALL on the field during the game itself (with the exception of when they were measured at halftime). This was verified because the refs are the ones switching out footballs every few plays / when necessary. As you watch a game, you'll see the refs throwing footballs to the sidelines and back out onto the fields on a regular basis, if the balls get wet and muddy, someone scores a touchdown and is keeping it as a memento, etc.
EDIT: Page 118 (122) of the report talks about how the consulting company specifically watched the AFCCG to determine where the balls were throughout the game. Giant footnote.
darkazcura
Member
Still doesn't really change my point that basing part of the argument off the ref's memory of what the PSI was pre-game is entirely unscientific and worthless. Maybe it is you who has to improve their reading comphrension because you pretty much missed the point of what I was saying. Most engineers would throw this investigation out the window if there were no conclusive numbers to base the inflation rates off of pre-game. I actually had a similar issue at my office with a study I was doing related to rate of pressure. I did not have any conclusive numbers to base my comparison off of, and I felt it was worthless data. It's just how I feel about it.
The measurements from halftime to postgame are fine to go by, but I personally don't know the different conditions the balls were exposed to so I didn't/won't comment on that part of it.
Read the report. Read Appendix I. They go through ALL of that. They prove mathematically and scientifically, even if you don't bother using the pre-game to halftime numbers, that there's no real way that drop happened naturally. .4% chance that it could happen spontaneously.
Seriously, you all need to actually read the report. They go through the gauges. They go through each of those issues and explain both mathematically and scientifically why they don't matter.
The Albatross
Member
What you're missing here is a natural phenomenon in Massachusetts where weather can be considerably worse in one town versus another; nay in the SAME town just yards apart. I was at this particular game and can confirm that on the Patriots sideline side of the stadium, the temperature was significantly colder and it was raining significantly harder.
How do I know this? Well, when I went for my 9th beer, I had to walk all the way over to the other side of the stadium because the lines were too long (where the Colts are) and lemme tell you after 9 beers and that spirited walk, I was sweating balls.
Hence, the difference.
Rabbi_Vole
Banned
The patriots slammed the door shut as soon as they found out they had recovered the deleted texts.
Night Angel
Member
Just want to point out that the bolded is complete bullshit. Engineers often work with incomplete data sets to come to logical conclusions. Imperfect data is not NO data.
Megalosaro
Banned
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/what-deflategate-sales-tom-brady-merchandise-double-n357756
Hahaha The pats and brady are laughing this all to the bank.
Hahaha The pats and brady are laughing this all to the bank.
Report accounts for that. See Page 118 and start on 40 or so of Appendix I. Would require a FORTY degree temperature differential between the two sides of the field. For the entire game.
They hate us cuz they ain't us
That suggestion was made in October, the AFCCG was in January the following year. We don't know what had happened in between. Also, it was Brady who said he made that suggestion. I don't put much stock into what Brady said when he has lied on at least two occasions during the investigation for the Wells report.
I bet he lied about being married to Giselle. seriously a 6th round pick marrying a Brazilian supermodel. .Yea right
The only thing I can conclude, through the report and the action of the league, teams, and players, is that nobody cared about the inflation of balls prior to this incident. The preference to use your own balls has always outweighed the risk of tampering. It's just so insignificant that the NFL should just allow teams to inflate the balls to whatever they want, and never have to talk about it again.
As I see it, kickers tamper the ball by attempting to change it's shape before every kick. QBs have game balls worn to some specific desire in an attempt to gain an advantage before the game. Footballs were never intended to be truly equal.
As I see it, kickers tamper the ball by attempting to change it's shape before every kick. QBs have game balls worn to some specific desire in an attempt to gain an advantage before the game. Footballs were never intended to be truly equal.
friskykillface
Banned
Question, after the balls were refilled at half were the psi per ball recorded for the pats? Also since only 4 balls of the colts recorded were they all refilled as well? Were those recorded?
The site I posted has a formula with ideal temperatures and the ideal gas law formula so can we not get to (or close to at least) to the half time and end of game numbers (after filling the balls) using his method? I mean it's a formula using actual data, if we have the half time psi measurements after they were filled and we have the ending PSI we should be able to use the formula to get to said readings no?
The biggest problem with the report is the pregame PSI were not recorded which to me brings into question anderson's role in all of this. I mean if he is so meticulous and such a good ref why not write them down? Why didn't the league request this information to be recorded? Would have saved a lot of this nonsense going on now but maybe this is what they wanted all along? All the media attention in the middle of NBA/NHL playoffs?
A few European soccer players are said to pretend to be married to a woman to cover up they're actually gay. Who knows.
MetalFearSolid
Banned
Beautiful post.
You make a good point here. As long as each team is only allowed to prepare their own balls, then who cares what PSI level they are set at.
goskowski didn't cooperate either. Yet he didn't get suspended. No one cares about kickers
Yes. Page 69-72 was them recording it after halftime and after the game. That's one of the reasons they said the Patriots deflated the balls before the game; because the difference between halftime (when they were re-inflated and measured) and post game (where they were measured) fit the equation. Colts balls did not need to be refilled since they were within limits.
At this point; the answers all of you are seeking are in the report. Not a single question I've answered hasn't been thoroughly broken down, explained, and proven in either the report itself or the appendix. If you don't want to believe the report because it doesn't jive with your feelings or what you want to already believe; nothing I can say or do will change that.
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