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[Theonik]

Tsipras obviously thinks his pretty smart, but the reality is that Greece has been going straight to the dead end. Whatever happens, people in Europe don't care anymore.

The only thing that is a dead end is Europe. That much is completely clear. It is a rotten project which has been deprived of its vision and purpose.

 

[M°°nblade]

Content is leaked/hinted:

Increase of corporate income taxes from 26 to 28 %
Increase of taxes on products:
- Luxury products: 10 -> 13 %
- Food, restaurants, transport, private health services: 13 -> 23 %
- Hotels: 6,5 -> 13 %
Pension age went up to 62 - 67
Defensive budgets get axed: 100 billion less in 2015 and another 200 billion in 2016

Priviliges for remote greek islands remain.
Other islands -> beneficial rules will be broken down starting from oktober.

 

[Napoleonthechimp]

Yes, it is much worse now. They had a better deal on the table.

I'm pretty sure I remember them being warned that the referendum would be pointless and lead to more harm. And here we are.

 

[chadskin]

After the results [of the referendum] were in, Mr. Hollande got an immediate phone call from Mr. Tsipras, according to French officials. Speaking in English, the Greek leader told Mr. Hollande the outcome didn’t mean Greece wanted to leave the euro.

“I want to stay in Europe and in the euro,” Mr. Tsipras said, according to one French official.

Ms. Merkel warned that showing leniency to Mr. Tsipras risked emboldening anti-euro parties in the bloc’s other countries, such as Spain. The German leader also said the eurozone needed to be prepared for a Greek exit.

“We need to have the two options,” Ms. Merkel said, according to a French official.

The conversation then turned to the delicate issue of Greece’s debt load, the French official said. Germany had long insisted any discussion of the debts wait until Athens had followed through on overhauls. But Mr. Hollande objected: “It is no time to have this kind of sequencing.”

The prospect of an easier schedule for Athens to repay its debts, Mr. Hollande said, needed to be part of the immediate talks.

“We have to do everything at the same time,” Mr. Hollande said.

Ms. Merkel was open to the idea, French officials said, but she demanded Greece commit to a three-year plan to retool Greece’s economy.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/france-...f-to-try-to-hold-eurozone-together-1436476052

 

[jakonovski]

Greece must accept a deal but they can't be trusted to pay but they can't leave because they must accept a deal but they can't be trusted to pay...

It's the world's worst merry-go-round.

 

[Machspeed007]

The only thing that is a dead end is Europe. That much is completely clear. It is a rotten project which has been deprived of its vision and purpose.

“If we remain stationary, prisoners of rules and bureaucracies, Europe is finished. Rebuilding a different Europe will not be easy after what has happened in recent years. But this is the right moment to try to do it all together. Italy will do its bit.”
MATTEO RENZI, prime minister of Italy, on Facebook, July 6th

So is Greece on board with rebuilding Europe? Because we do have the will to rebuild.

 

[Alx]

Stuff like that is why I can't trust all those "revolutionar", anti-system political movements. For all the goodwill they may have and values they defend, they're just out of their league when dealing with such matters, or even sometimes just incompetent.
Sure Tsipras had a very difficult task, maybe even an impossible one, but I can't say he's done a very good job defending his position.

So is Greece on board with rebuilding Europe? Because we do have the will to rebuild.

Unfortunately even if Greece is on board, you still have to convince the other countries. We had a proposition for a constitution to a more political Europe not so long ago, and many members rejected it.
Although it's the right moment to start thinking about the kind of Europe we want indeed. The only good point with the Greek crisis is that we've been talking about European politics for a change. Too bad we'll get into Summer vacations and people will stop caring about anything. :/

 

[Theonik]

“If we remain stationary, prisoners of rules and bureaucracies, Europe is finished. Rebuilding a different Europe will not be easy after what has happened in recent years. But this is the right moment to try to do it all together. Italy will do its bit.”
MATTEO RENZI, prime minister of Italy, on Facebook, July 6th

So is Greece on board with rebuilding Europe? Because we do have the will to rebuild.

They are on board when you start practising what you preach and not screw them over.
So never.

 

[PdotMichael]

Stuff like that is why I can't trust all those "revolutionar", anti-system political movements. For all the goodwill they may have and values they defend, they're just out of their league when dealing with such matters, or even sometimes just incompetent.
Sure Tsipras had a very difficult task, maybe even an impossible one, but I can't say he's done a very good job defending his position.

The Germans have a word for that.

Realpolitik

 

[jakonovski]

Stuff like that is why I can't trust all those "revolutionar", anti-system political movements. For all the goodwill they may have and values they defend, they're just out of their league when dealing with such matters, or even sometimes just incompetent.
Sure Tsipras had a very difficult task, maybe even an impossible one, but I can't say he's done a very good job defending his position.

Considering that it was the status quo political apparatus that managed to create this crisis (Greece, the banks and the EU all together!), I have no idea why you would trust them either.

 

[Theonik]

Considering that it was the status quo political apparatus that managed to create this crisis (Greece, the banks and the EU all together!), I have no idea why you would trust them either.

And therein lies the dilemma. One is unwilling to change, the other is not competent.
To me the difference lies in that the later could pull this off if the EU was willing to co-operate but it is clear to me that they have profited substantially from the former and have no will to push for change.

 

[Alx]

Considering that it was the status quo political apparatus that managed to create this crisis (Greece, the banks and the EU all together!), I have no idea why you would trust them either.

I can't say I would have trusted them either, considering the situation. It was a lose-lose situation for Greece anyway. But it was more a general opinion towards that trend that appears all around Europe. In France I don't trust Mélenchon, if I was Spanish I wouldn't trust Podemos, etc.

 

[Machspeed007]

They are on board when you start practising what you preach and not screw them over.
So never.

It takes two to dance. You can't really excuse the past 20 years of political endemic corruption that plagued Greece either.

 

[PJV3]

If the referendum and the drama finally leads to debt relief and less time suffering then it has been worth it, if not then dump the Euro and get the fuck out of the crazy club.

 

[Theonik]

It takes two to dance. You can't really excuse the past 20 years of political endemic corruption that plagued Greece either.

Well they offered to dance and the EU kicked them in the gut. Repeatedly.
Nobody is excusing the network of corruption in Greece, but no-one is offering to help either. They have been served by that system for a long time themselves and would rather push the burden to the common citizen while humiliating them.

 

[M°°nblade]

Yes, it is much worse now. They had a better deal on the table.

Exactly like I predicted 3 days ago:
->

The deal Tsipras is forced to make this week in order to stay in the EU, is going to be worse than the one before the referendum.

.


8 billion became 12-13 billion because the insecurity of the last months adjusted the expectation towards a recession of 3% instead of a growth of 0,5%.
I hope the other european 'anti-austerity' parties will remember this. I'm sure the Greeks will.

 

[PdotMichael]

Exactly like I predicted 3 days ago:
->
.


8 billion became 12-13 billion because the insecurity of the last months adjusted the expectation towards a recession of 3% instead of a growth of 0,5%.

I hope the other european 'anti-austerity' parties will remember this. I'm sure the Greeks will.

Pretty sure, they still love the victim role and don't really get it that Tsipras and Varoufakis made everything worse the past weeks.

 

[Machspeed007]

Well they offered to dance and the EU kicked them in the gut. Repeatedly.
Nobody is excusing the network of corruption in Greece, but no-one is offering to help either. They have been served by that system for a long time themselves and would rather push the burden to the common citizen while humiliating them.

So the Greeks are a proud and independent nation but when it comes to tackling the corruption problem, they need outside help? The EU has helped tremendously Greece by giving subsidies to agriculture, investing in infrastructure, etc. things that other eastern-European countries don't yet have.

The common citizen has shared the burden in other countries too, they had up to 24% tax on all goods and you think 13% is too much? The rich are already paying more if you are really taxing them. That's why tax evasion and corruption need to be reduced drastically.

 

[Shiggy]

Do I see it correctly? Greece does still not propose any structural reforms that help in deregulating the labour market nor are there any suggestions to make the tac system more efficient?

If European parliaments accept this, all hope is lost.

 

[Machspeed007]

Reuters - Greek parliament will back reform negotiations: party spokesman

 

[Theonik]

So the Greeks are a proud and independent nation but when it comes to tackling the corruption problem, they need outside help? The EU has helped tremendously Greece by giving subsidies to agriculture, investing in infrastructure, etc. things that other eastern-European countries don't yet have.

The common citizen has shared the burden in other countries too, they had up to 24% tax on all goods and you think 13% is too much? The rich are already paying more if you are really taxing them. That's why tax evasion and corruption need to be reduced drastically.

In the current arrangement they either require cooperation or for the creditors to fuck off, when the former is rejected then the option is the later.

The second part of your post is just pure nonsense so I will leave it at that.

 

[MisterFalcon]

Well they offered to dance and the EU kicked them in the gut. Repeatedly.
Nobody is excusing the network of corruption in Greece, but no-one is offering to help either.

The last EU team sent to investigate corruption had the location of their hotel leaked and they had to get bodyguards to protect them from violent demonstrations. Not that any of the ministries let them into the building anyway.

 

[oti]

As Tusk said, both sides should be winners. The creditors got what they wanted, now they have to commit to a debt cut. Otherwise they'll be seen as bullies.

 

[M°°nblade]

Do I see it correctly? Greece does still not propose any structural reforms that help in deregulating the labour market nor are there any suggestions to make the tac system more efficient?

If European parliaments accept this, all hope is lost.

They have proposed that as well.

- privatisation of telecom company OTE, harbor of Piraeus and Thessaloniki
- modernisation of public service, will get evaluated, to make the tax income system more efficient and to battle fiscal fraud

Good news.

 

[jakonovski]

Do I see it correctly? Greece does still not propose any structural reforms that help in deregulating the labour market nor are there any suggestions to make the tac system more efficient?

If European parliaments accept this, all hope is lost.

I have no idea how either of those will give Greece an ability to pay. The only thing at this point that even can work is eurozone wide reforms, or Grexit.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

"they got a worse deal than before" is not strictly true. Yes, it was only E9bn before, but that was for an extension of a programme which wouldn't have lasted as long and the Greeks would have had to return to the negotiating table (probably but not definitely to endure more cuts then) sooner. This is a 4 year programme. They're not comparable in the same way that you didn't necessarily get a worse deal if you purchase something for £100 and get a 2-year warranty compared to if you purchased something for £50 and get a 1-year warranty. Don't get me wrong, it's still a shitty, shitty deal but it's not really comparable to the one that was the subject of the referenda.

 

[Shiggy]

They have proposed that as well.

- privatisation of telecom company OTE, harbor of Piraeus and Thessaloniki
- modernisation of public service, will get evaluated, to make the tax income system more efficient and to battle fiscal fraud

Good news.

It's less about privatisation and more about facilitating the act of doing business in Greece. Less bureaucracy. The new government still does not tackle that issue.

For point 2, it seems more like a very general proposal that we've heard for years now. Nothing specific once again.

I have no idea how either of those will give Greece an ability to pay. The only thing at this point that even can work is eurozone wide reforms, or Grexit.

Getting taxes will definitely help when corruption and tax evasion are big issues.

 

[PJV3]

As Tusk said, both sides should be winners. The creditors got what they wanted, now they have to commit to a debt cut. Otherwise they'll be seen as bullies.

That's what i'm waiting to see, if we hear nothing about the debt within the next few days then Greece is being fucked over. The people need the nightmare to end as quickly as possible, the Euro isn't worth decades of austerity that still leaves the country bust.

 

[Nicktendo86]

No mention of debt relief in any of the proposals sent to the imf or ecb, this just gets stranger and stranger.

Speculation that French fingerprints were all over this and they will offer debt relief or something in exchange for saving their banks. I have no fucking idea.

 

[oti]

No mention of debt relief in any of the proposals sent to the imf or ecb, this just gets stranger and stranger.

Speculation that French fingerprints were all over this and they will offer debt relief or something in exchange for saving their banks. I have no fucking idea.

German media reporting they've sent a second document regarding their debt.

Zudem packt die Regierung allerdings erneut ein heißes Eisen an. Nach einem Begleitschreiben will Athen auch eine Regelung zum Umgang mit seinen Schulden. Schuldenschnitte lehnt unter anderem die Bundesregierung bisher jedoch strikt ab.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Greek 'democracy' huh, what a sham. Parliament will approve basically the same deal that the people rejected less than a week ago after France urge them to accept.

What an utterly putrid situation.

 

[GasProblem]

Guess the damage to the image of Europe would be too great if Greece would exit and get closer to China and/or Russia. 50bn is reasonable in that regard I guess.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

"they got a worse deal than before" is not strictly true. Yes, it was only E9bn before, but that was for an extension of a programme which wouldn't have lasted as long and the Greeks would have had to return to the negotiating table (probably but not definitely to endure more cuts then) sooner. This is a 4 year programme. They're not comparable in the same way that you didn't necessarily get a worse deal if you purchase something for £100 and get a 2-year warranty compared to if you purchased something for £50 and get a 1-year warranty. Don't get me wrong, it's still a shitty, shitty deal but it's not really comparable to the one that was the subject of the referenda.

To explain the further consequences, that means this is probably a better deal than the referendum one (marginally) if Greece expects their economic position to deteriorate rather than improve, because the referendum deal would have involved returning to negotiations sooner with a worse economy.

 

[norinrad]

The only thing that is a dead end is Europe. That much is completely clear. It is a rotten project which has been deprived of its vision and purpose.

There's an article here which is hilarious and yet hits the nail

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/09/28-versions-europe-eurozone-grexit

 

[TheLaughingStock]

Cool. I wish the Greeks the best no matter what they decide.

 

[Joni]

No mention of debt relief in any of the proposals sent to the imf or ecb, this just gets stranger and stranger.

The fact they don't mention it, makes the deal stronger. The EU should normally offer it under a better name allowing both sides to save faces, it is not a debt relief, it is a debt restructuring.

Guess the damage to the image of Europe would be too great if Greece would exit and get closer to China and/or Russia. 50bn is reasonable in that regard I guess.

The European Union doesn't have problems with China, they're trying to get closer and closer to China themselves. Russia and China also both have financial problems to deal with at home. Which in the end might be better for this deal. China, Russia and US aren't coming to help. Europe is all that is left.

 

[Theonik]

If the things I am hearing are correct oh goody.

 

[M°°nblade]

"they got a worse deal than before" is not strictly true. Yes, it was only E9bn before, but that was for an extension of a programme which wouldn't have lasted as long and the Greeks would have had to return to the negotiating table (probably but not definitely to endure more cuts then) sooner. This is a 4 year programme. They're not comparable in the same way that you didn't necessarily get a worse deal if you purchase something for £100 and get a 2-year warranty compared to if you purchased something for £50 and get a 1-year warranty. Don't get me wrong, it's still a shitty, shitty deal but it's not really comparable to the one that was the subject of the referenda.

Oh it is still a worse deal. Greece needs between 1-2 billion extra for every programme year.

Even if this had remained a 2 year programme, they still needed to pay 11 billion (2 billion extra) instead of 8-9 billion.

 

[itsgreen]

If the things I am hearing are correct oh goody.

What are you hearing?

By the way, am I right to think that these Greek proposals are nearly the thing that was offered to them some time ago?

 

[Reuenthal]

What are you hearing?

By the way, am I right to think that these Greek proposals are nearly the thing that was offered to them some time ago?

It's similar but the program would run over a longer period of time.

 

[PJV3]

Oh it is still a worse deal. Greece needs between 1-2 billion extra for every programme year.

Even if this had remained a 2 year programme, they still needed to pay 11 billion (2 billion extra) instead of 8-9 billion.

Lets see what, if anything, they get in return.

The French are really pushing this deal, it will be interesting if Merkel snubs it, then later the British wading in with their demands.
Fun times in Brussels.

 

[Frankfurter]

Lets see what, if anything, they get in return.

The French are really pushing this deal, it will be interesting if Merkel snubs it, then later the British wading in with their demands.
Fun times in Brussels.

I'm pretty sure that Merkel isn't the major obstacle at this point. Schäuble may be, but after all she is the chancellor, and a couple eastern-european MPs apparently are pissed.

 

[jakonovski]

Getting taxes will definitely help when corruption and tax evasion are big issues.

I'm not so convinced that it will bring that much revenue, given how large a part of the GDP Greece is able to get as tax revenue (the image that made the rounds a few pages ago). The big thing is the flatlining economy, which might get a boost from the additional taxes but if austerity is about to make a comeback, forget it. Banks will get some figurative pennies and Greece will continue to die.

 

[Theonik]

I'm not so convinced that it will bring that much revenue, given how large a part of the GDP Greece is able to get as tax revenue (the image that made the rounds a few pages ago). The big thing is the flatlining economy, which might get a boost from the additional taxes but if austerity is about to make a comeback, forget it. Banks will get some figurative pennies and Greece will continue to die.

Bankers will continue making a killing out of all this.

 

[shinra-bansho]

It's less about privatisation and more about facilitating the act of doing business in Greece. Less bureaucracy. The new government still does not tackle that issue.

For point 2, it seems more like a very general proposal that we've heard for years now. Nothing specific once again.

I came across this WEF report on "Competitiveness" that seems relevant on this point.
http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2014-2015/economies/#economy=GRC
The various rankings in general are quite interesting, in measures of "Government Efficiency" there seems to certainly be room for improvement.

Index 									Rank /144 	Score 	
Wastefulness of government spending 1-7 (best) 				131 		2.2 	
Burden of government regulation 1-7 (best) 				136 		2.4 	
Efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes 1-7 (best) 		126 		2.7 	
Efficiency of legal framework in challenging regulations 1-7 (best) 	114 		2.7 	
Transparency of government policymaking 1-7 (best) 			120 		3.4

There are some other quirks that standout. Regarding higher education, "Quantity of education" the country ranks 1st of 144, while "Quality" is 87th.
"Capacity for innovation" ranks 109, despite availability of scientists and engineers being very good (rank 4).

EDIT: Looking at the methodology of these metrics, I suppose one can question the validity to an extent - as some of them are based on a subjective "Executive Opinion Survey."

----

To explain the further consequences, that means this is probably a better deal than the referendum one (marginally) if Greece expects their economic position to deteriorate rather than improve, because the referendum deal would have involved returning to negotiations sooner with a worse economy.

Does this consider though the economic impact of the last week and a bit's events?

(I.e. the imposition of capital controls as a result of the lapsing of the second bailout and the plausible spectre of Grexit.)

Or to put it another way, could a similar outcome have been achieved without all this brinksmanship.

 

[oti]

German reactions so far:

"We don't trust them" - CDU/CSU
"Why isn't the Orthodox church part of the reforms?" - FDP (liberals)
"I hope this is enough" - SPD (socialists)
"We need to change EU law in order to help Greece" - Greens
"We should support Greece during the Grexit" - Alexander Graf Lambsdorff (FDP, how cool is that name?)

http://m.heute.de/ZDF/zdfportal/xml/object/39223764

 

[Chariot]

Why quote the FDP, twice at that? The AFD and the Pirate Party have at this point more relevance then them.

 

[Theonik]

Why quote the FDP, twice at that? The AFD and the Pirate Party have at this point more relevance then them.

Because:

Alexander Graf Lambsdorff (FDP, how cool is that name?)

Edit:

Or to put it another way, could a similar outcome have been achieved without all this brinksmanship.

In the complete absence of rational actors in this circus it is impossible to tell.

 

[oti]

Why quote the FDP, twice at that? The AFD and the Pirate Party have at this point more relevance then them.

The Pirate Party?
I don't think so.

 

[KingSnake]

So we know now what the official Syriza PR will be:

"We have a mandate to bring a better deal than the ultimatum that the Eurogroup gave us, we do not have a mandate to take Greece out of the eurozone," Mr Tsipras was quoted as saying at a meeting of his parliamentary group this morning.

That could work only if Greece gets a debt relief.