Huh? Tsipras could initiate a Grexit right now if he wanted. Arguing that the referendum gave him the authority for that is much, much, much easier than that. What you are suggesting makes zero sense to me.
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Greece votes OXI/No on more Austerity measures
- Thread starter Coriolanus
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Huh? Tsipras could initiate a Grexit right now if he wanted. Arguing that the referendum gave him the authority for that is much, much, much easier than that. What you are suggesting makes zero sense to me.
Coriolanus
Banned
Problem is that he could do that without the referendum.
Y'know, the referendum where the people explicitly gave him permission to refuse a shit deal. That one.
Dude's literally wiping his ass with the people that bothered to vote OXI.
Ether_Snake
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He never got a mandate for Grexit, the population is against it.
hydrophilic attack
Member
Before the referendum, debt relief was completely off the table. Now both IMF, France, Italy and US have come out in favour of it. Even Schäuble himself has acknowledged that IMF are probably correct.
Negotiator
Member
Obligatory video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeGe1iLhYrE
Well, he certainly did not get a mandate to submit that proposal...
Why do you think the Troika is being played?
They have pretty much said "our terms or Grexit."
They took the referendum as a vote on Greece's desire to stay in the euro or leave.
At this point it seems like the Troika is just sitting there nodding its head until Greece finally goes "Screw it, I'm out!" and leaves the euro.
Theonik
Member
It's a fucking joke. The damage they did to the real economy to fold is huge.
Furthermore, Germany will just blame the last round of negotiations on whatever goes wrong and also claim that Greeks failed to reform backing it with empty retorts again like they did the last 2 times we were in this spot. The are absolutely NOT trustworthy. To think Greece won't be blamed again is HUGELY naive.
There's no debt relief in this document. Troika can say "we accept your requests" and be done with it. It will be utterly stupid because it will throw more money into the endless pit, but it will be what Tsipras requested.
Coriolanus
Banned
And it came to be by playing hardball, not by capitulating. If you give them everything they want, why in blazes would they give you debt relief? They'll just say that you didnt implement shit properly.
International negotiations should'nt be conducted solely on good faith, ffs.
Ether_Snake
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For Grexit, you need to apply a bad proposal so that people make the next election one on the Grexit mandate because they will have had enough. You have no choice but to submit to be able to go for Grexit, you need a revolt, isn't that clear??
Now they will have it.
Now they will have it.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
You're weird about conspiracy stuff.
Wonder if the creditors will accept that proposal or if they will say that the proposal would have been ok the rest of the 2nd bailout but is too weak for a 3rd bailout via the ESM. That wouldn't make the actions of the Greek government any less weird, but it would another comical twist in this ludicrous story.
Coriolanus
Banned
He had explicit orders from the population to refuse bad proposals. He had to ally himself with ND and Pasok to actually have a shot at getting this thing through his own parliament.
Come on, mate. Drop the 15th dimension shogi narrative.
BONUS STAGE: the creditors refuse the proposal because it is deemed too harsh. Ask for a proposal that won't destroy the fucking country. Death by irony becomes the leading cause of death in the eurozone.
So you want Greece to initiate the Grexit, when just by sticking to the referendum results Greece could have requested a better deal that EU would have refused and EU would have initiated the Grexit?
The proposal still has to be voted through a lot of Parliaments, no? Or is this avoiding ESM altogether although Germany specifically stated that they have to go through ESM this time?
Vlodril
Member
Even with debt cuts i am not sure that proposal can pass through the parliament. even if the opposition votes for i am pretty sure syriza will drop a bunch of its seats.
One would expect it has already being discussed with their team (i think there was a a meeting yesterday?) but that seems insane to me. we ll see.
One would expect it has already being discussed with their team (i think there was a a meeting yesterday?) but that seems insane to me. we ll see.
Theonik
Member
I hope Finland or Estonia can save Greece. PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD REJECT THIS TRAVESTY.
I said it yesterday, he got everyone but KKE and GD on board, even if large portions of Syriza rightly refuse to vote this farce he's still likely to.
Ether_Snake
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Lets say he refused a bad deal, then what? He can't have Greece exit! They would have had to go to the elections and it would have all been about "I can solve it! No I can! No me!", same old. The only way to be able to Grexit is to accept a bad deal, really bad one, fall on your sword, let the deal do its damage. Then you can be 100% certain no political party will be able to win the next elections if they aren't for Grexit because the majority will explicitly demand it.
There is no other way to Grexit with popular support, period.
Coriolanus
Banned
I'm still wondering how in blazes he'll get the people from the coalition party in this. Dudes are focused on defense and he gon' cut the shit outta it? The fuck.
I shall name this The Nero Theory of Greater Grexit Management.
Doesnt seem very conspiratorial to me. If the Greece people want to escape from the measures forced on them by the rest of the EU there must be bloodshed.
Else submit to moving forward under their subjugation.
Vlodril
Member
yea but he will still lose majority and we ll need elections afterwards. its not like he can govern without his party. even a few drops will drop the government.
You don't understand the situation, really. There was no proposal to accept this time. It was Greece's time to make a proposal. Syriza could have made a proposal that met their mandate (from elections and referendum). Then the proposal would have been rejected by Germany, Finland, Estonia and whoever. Thus Greece would have been in default. And Germany would have initiated the Grexit because eurozone can't afford to have a country in default. It's a very logical process and didn't need any elections in Greece. And could have been fully blamed on Germany if you want.
The proposal is for an ESM-based bailout. So yes, it has to go through some parliaments, and even twice through the German parliament. But that might not be that big of a problem if the proposal really just is a copy of the pre-refrendum proposal without debt relief. That depends on whether all these instances would judge it sufficiently strict enough for an ESM program.
By the way, another conspiracy story that comes to mind is that Tsipras is sacrificing himself for a covert deal for a debt relief in a few years that he is not allowed to share with the public to spare the creditors the rage of their electorate. #Aliens
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Assuming To Potami, ND and Pasok all vote in favour, only about a quarter of the Syriza MPs are need to pass this. Tsipras will probably lead a national unity government until at least the next elections; whereupon Syriza will be utterly shattered given they've denied their raison d'etre.
My personal hope is just that Estonia rejects it.
Negotiator
Member
The majority of the Greek people want the Euro, just without the neoliberal nonsense.
Enforcing a Grexit without a mandate from the voters would probably require a military junta/totalitarian regime (Golden Dawn?).
Enforcing a Grexit without a mandate from the voters would probably require a military junta/totalitarian regime (Golden Dawn?).
Coriolanus
Banned
C'mon Crabbo, this can't possibly be your only comment. Give us the goods. Unload the hate.
Theonik
Member
He will not. The coalition will likely break and be replaced by a new ND/Potami coalition per the creditor's wishes.
Ether_Snake
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There was nothing that could have done a better job at infuriating the French population to revolt than hearing that the king was amassing an army of Austrians to invade his own country.
That's basically what the outcome will be, especially since this deal can't improve the Greek economy. It's maths.
That's basically what the outcome will be, especially since this deal can't improve the Greek economy. It's maths.
I hope the German Parliament knows about the conspiracy because they are asked to vote to give more money for a thing that their Finance Minister has just stated it can't work without a debt relief.
Vlodril
Member
and again. what i am saying is that his parliament members (some of the more extremes ones at least) its possible to go independent. even if he passes this specific thing he wont be able to pass anything else afterwards. hell he wont have majority for a vote of no confidence either.
Ether_Snake
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Nooo! What do you not understand? In that scenario there would have had to be a Grexit without popular support, or elections on the subject! It would not guarantee Grexit! Only applying a horrible proposal to really wreck the country can translate into a Grexit mandate!
Theonik
Member
Whereas spitting on his recent referendum is not already a massive defacing of Greek democracy.
At this point I'd almost welcome a fucking coup. You have no idea how much I HATE typing this.
Vlodril
Member
ok lets not get overboard
. its puzzling to me after the huge success he had what he hopes to achieve with this but we had a junta we dont need another one.Ok, are you a fan of Golden Dawn? Because I can't see how else do you want your country to burst into flames when there are other options (still painful, but less violent).
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I think PASOK, ND, and To Potami would definitely support a rump "moderate" Syriza group if Syriza split apart.
They will happily support Tsipras through the most tough measures only to have whom to blame in the elections.
Not doing anything = Grexit.
If Greece delays long enough and runs out of euros, guess what, you have a Grexit by default, no matter how much anyone loves the euro.
Theonik
Member
'Almost'ok lets not get overboard
Vlodril
Member
pretty sure they wouldn't and they would want elections.
The best case I can make for the Greek government is that they know that the creditors won't accept the pre-referendum proposal for a 3rd ESM-based bailout (if we assume that they really will not), since that would be about more money, run for a longer time, and thus requirer harsher conditions. They would at least be able to tailor a lot of blame on the creditors. "Look, we even conceded to all their demands, and they still didn't accept it. They were never serious from the beginning. They just want to fuck us."
Still, the damage at home for submitting that proposals just has to be larger than to just claim that the creditors are not willing to accept Greece's demands and are thus forcing a Grexit.
Still, the damage at home for submitting that proposals just has to be larger than to just claim that the creditors are not willing to accept Greece's demands and are thus forcing a Grexit.
Do you think they are so willing to be the ones who apply these measures? They will let Tsipras and Syriza do it and burst into flames afterwards.
Coriolanus
Banned
When can the parliament call for a vote of confidence? Because even if Tsipras allies with ND and Pasok, dude's gotta know that they'll toss his ass out as soon as they possibly can.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I mean, if that is true... why on earth is Tsipras doing this? I mean, I can't see any reason why he'd do something that both a) kicks him out of office, and b) goes against his stated principles. Like a) over b) or b) over a), fine, those are normal politician-y things to do. But this?
hydrophilic attack
Member
I miss Varoufakis
90TilInfinity
Member
Man, I despair for the Greek voters.
you and your strange / unique views..
To "escape" the EU you would destroy your own country first?
Political and economical genocide to be "free"?
You sound like one of those Final Fantasy bad guys. Let's murder everyone so noone has to suffer, eh? Beeing alive doesn't guarantee happiness. Kill em all?
Theonik
Member
Varoufakis knew.
Maybe they can still use this. In fact, all the Eurosceptics are going to have a FIELD DAY over this. It's basically Tsipras taken behind the shed and SHOT.
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