Well, I think in the last election, it went blue, so I think it will still be a toss-up.
Hillary Clinton's lead a puddle in the Sanders Sahara #deadheat #feelthebern
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wild wild rice
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While we're having fun being hypothetical, which Republican candidate would beat Sanders but not Clinton?
It seems like people fear that Bernie getting the nod would lead to an automatic win for Rep., but is this really the case? I even fear bringing this up in case it contributes some false narrative that eventually gets woven into our national consciousness and becomes real.
It seems like people fear that Bernie getting the nod would lead to an automatic win for Rep., but is this really the case? I even fear bringing this up in case it contributes some false narrative that eventually gets woven into our national consciousness and becomes real.
It will be amazing if sanders gets the nomination. Instantly you will hear ads everywhere calling Bernie a socialist. That is all you will hear for months until Bernie gets destroyed in the election. That is the losing path against every republican candidate except maybe trump and even then maybe not.
Edit: don't misunderstand I like Bernie the most. But the calls of socialism and communism will drown out all nuance and bury bernie.
Edit: don't misunderstand I like Bernie the most. But the calls of socialism and communism will drown out all nuance and bury bernie.
And_Gignac
Member
This is completely false. There's not a single poll showing Joe "peeling support" from Clinton. Joe had 15% last time CNN polled, now he has 14% (Sanders had 19% and Clinton 56%).
According to electability polls done as recently as June of this year, it's extremely unlikely that he'd be able to beat ANY GOP candidate because he's a self avowed Socialist.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/183713/s...litics&utm_medium=newsfeed&utm_campaign=tiles
Yeah, the socialist label pretty much dooms him. I think a baby murderer would have a better shot then Bernie here in the US. Socialist has a huge stigma.
And_Gignac
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"Socialist" without a candidate's name attached to it is meaningless. There are mid July poll showing him to be competitive against most GOP candidates.
Ask the same question for "racist" and see the results you get. And yet Trump is not "doomed".
shinra-bansho
Member
His brand of economic populism does well in certain market segments.
In a general election scenario, if he continues to refuse to take high dollar donations into his campaign, or the DNC fundraising, and refuses to engage a SuperPAC. Probably several of them.
Picture a billion dollars in ads with SOCIALIST in sparkly font. I'm also not particularly aware on his foreign policy stances and experience, but those would presumably come into play more.
Bernie's polling in July is irrelevant to the general election. If he were to become the nominee for Dems the GOP would easily be able to make the label "Socialist" stick to him which would quickly galvanize much of the country against him.
Of course, that's hypothetical. What we know is that since Gallup has been doing that poll linked above (40+ years) Socialists have always been among the most unpopular potential candidates. That's not going to change just because you want it to.
The point is is that they can both beat Trump....so many now is the time to take a true step to the left instead of more centrist democrats.
I think the debates in October are going to help Bernie explode a hell of a lot more than he already has. His sincerity is captivating.
I do wonder how the mainstream media will paint him, seeing as he's very recently and vocally called them the fuck out.
Dammmmmnnn. Great interview and charisma there from Bernie.
Hopefully he does this in the debate in October.
Maybe not after that term was fired at Obama for 8 years who turned out fine. There is the possibility that the GOP themselves weakened the word so much that it won't hurt Bernie anymore. The sword became blunt using it to hit a stone.
thecouncil
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Just don't be surprised when Fox News and other outlets try to make it a great concern.
But Obama did not use the s word himself while Bernie does. Plus Bernie is an old Jewish guy that's not very religious.
And_Gignac
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Again, a meaningless term if its not attached to a name. Sanders would be running for the Democratic Party, not the Communist Party.
The right tried the "socialist" label with Obama and it never hurt him.
Because she's not genuine, and the policies she claims to support are not consistent with her record. You can tell she doesn't care about what she's saying without even having to look closely.
You mean like Roosvelt, who largely got America off its ass through government in the same way Bernie is trying to? Social Democracies have the best living conditions of any major country on this planet. Saying America won't elect a social democrat is the same thing as saying we can never have common sense again.
Bernie's present issue is awareness. He has to become more known to the American public, and a debate will literally offer that platform to mainstream America in a big way.
Consider for a moment most of Bernie's policies are actually held by Americans, yet it's as if the people are happily voting against their own interests. In this case, that risk is there because many are simply unaware of a candidate that is more for those positions, which is Bernie.
If Bernie is a socialist and this is painted as poison, so is the American populous, albeit unconsciously so. It could be yet another case of propaganda making people vote against their own interests, which I can easily imagine could happen. I mean, people do literally vote Republican in this country...
As for Hillary, she can continue to be a shilling oligarch. She has her style down pat, so I can only expect status quo rhetoric from her, absolutely vapid with zero charisma or gravitas to it.
thecouncil
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damn, you have a lot riding on this neogaf post.
He's the perfect candidate for the far left progressives, which is why he's polling so "well" relatively.
Is being jewish an attack point? I know America is very christian religious, but they don't seem to have issues with jews and that might even excuse that he isn't very religious.
The Socialist holds true, but even if he uses themselves, people got used to the word and connect it to Obama's social reforms that could ring positive to a lot of people. Obama really paved a way for Sanders with in his terms.
I have serious doubts about that, but wouldn't that be hilarious. There's always 2024, Hildawg!
Obama was never a self-described socialist with socialist policies.
Did that matter to the extreme Right? They still think he's a communist.
I wouldn't go that far, but it would be a closer run thing than most progressives want to admit and entirely belie the actual demographics in America right now.
So, basically, ya Walter Mondale 2.0
Who cares what the Extreme Right thinks, it matters to centrist Dems and Independents.
He is exactly Mondale 2.0. The dems have tried going ultra left, and they ending up losing badly. Reagan got 525 Electoral Votes, it was a bloodbath. I don't think we will get a repeat of that realistically, but ultra left doesn't fly with the masses no matter what people think.
I think we'd get a relative repeat of that. The GOP was still fairly electable during Reagan vs. Mondale while now they have little hope of reaching the Presidency... unless the Dems get clever again and put up someone like Sanders. 525 Electoral Votes isn't feasible, but it would still be extremely humbling for the Dems I believe.
I think Bernie would have a very good chance against someone like Trump, but against a more establishment Republican it would be much closer than it ever should be.
Orbis Tabula
Member
The whole "the Right tried to call Obama a socialist and he turned out fine, therefore Bernie will be fine" argument doesn't seem very solid to me. Maybe Obama did fine because, despite the GOP's efforts, the public didn't believe he was a socialist and voted for him because of that. Presumably, there are voters who don't like socialism, heard the Right call Obama a socialist, said "no he's not!" And voted for him. Those same people wouldn't vote for Bernie, because when the Right call him a socialist, the response will be "You betcha!" And that scares some people.
It's like, if we had a president who were falsely accused of murder all election and won anyway because it was a crazy accusation, it doesn't mean that an actual, admitted murderer could then win. So same logic applies.
It's like, if we had a president who were falsely accused of murder all election and won anyway because it was a crazy accusation, it doesn't mean that an actual, admitted murderer could then win. So same logic applies.
Last time she lost to Obama. This time her lead over Sanders is evaporating and even over Trump is also already evaporating. I haven't been following US politics too closely I did see how Trump made mincemeat out of his Republican challengers and a hostile Fox News in that TV debate, seems to me Trump might absolutely destroy Hillary in an election campaign and head to head debates.
That makes no sense. This is the assumption that literally no one in America can decide for themselves which politician best suits their interests.
shinra-bansho
Member
Your premise assumes that a given voter believes that the relatively far-left economically populist policy prescriptions espoused are A) feasible and executable, and B) necessarily in their interests.
Orbis Tabula
Member
And your assumption is that Bernie Sanders is in the best interests of more than half of voting Americans. Which may be true. I dunno. It's a big assumption, though. And, I do know that people act against their best interests all the time.
...what?
No I'm saying he's too far left because he's too far left. Again, you can't take 'popular opinion' as saying he has majority appeal across party lines. The last 3 elections have seen roughly only 58-60% of all eligible voters turn out, of which Republicans get roughly half the popular vote. The 2012 and 2004 elections were pretty close in terms of popular vote numbers. But GOP has roughly gotten 60 million votes each election.
Now you take Sanders, someone who has long been called a socialist, who is Jewish but almost atheist from New York, he's anti-gun, not religious, pro-choice, pro-immigration reform and amnesty, pro-environment, anti-oil/anti-pipeline, pro-LGBT, pro-obamacare/universal Healthcare etc. He's a complete nonstarter for almost every single red/conservative state and when the campaign dollars are flying, he's going to get roasted for these choices. If that means common sense is dead, then yeah probably. Wait until the oil companies, rich conservative donors, military industrial complex start taking out attack ads. Unlike Obama who was a charismatic speaker who capitalized on change we can believe in, you're facing a Republican majority in the Senate and house. Hillary Clinton has far broader appeal. Just look at how many voters Obama lost to Romney in 2012 versus McCain in 2008. Then again, what do I know. All I fear is more of the same in the US. Even a guy like Obama who wasn't really entrenched with corporate interests, who wasn't a career politician, is himself a minority wasn't able to achieve much, what could a president really do these days?
ScatheZombie
Member
Bernie has over a decade more experience in politics and has been in Washington longer than Hillary...
And 8 of those years, Hillary was the first lady - a position that effectively has zero political capital or power.
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
OP says registered voters, tho.
I'm just a watcher from afar (not in America lol), but there has been only one Catholic president (JFK), others are all Protestant Christians (maybe except Thomas Jefferson? but the time is different from then).
Obama is certainly not an atheist, but he is probably not very religious. But at least ostensibly, Obama professes to be quite religious during his term.
wild wild rice
Member
Haha... To be fair, I'm hearing this places outside of GAF as well. And I'm only just now starting to research and follow the news regarding the election. I'll probably start getting my toes wet in PoliGAF any day now.
It's always that looming threat of SCOTUS appointments that make me fear supporting the more progressive candidate. How many are we expecting over the course of the next presidency?
Sanders has long said any efforts don't begin and end with him being president. Any change that will happen will depend on a grassroots move where the people demand change, and uproot much of the established boulders in the way.
Obama talked in such a way that this was so, but after he was elected, he kind of waved away the people who put him in office and tried to do it all by himself. Suffice to say, that effort fucking failed. Every major effort he made as a result was nothing more than petty compromises. Look at Obamacare, some would consider his magnum opus: it's literally settling for the corporate interests that already make the health care system a mess by having them at the table and still continuing the problems our system has. He's insured millions more, yes, but they're insured in a system that we can call on many account to be fucking terrible, and still the worst system of the developed world.
Sanders has said countless times that if he were to follow in Obama's footsteps that way, nothing would get done. He'd openly admitted nothing can be done by himself, which is why he's tried to focus on the people behind his campaigns and trying to paint a picture where it's an upheaval by many instead of the one they cheer for on a podium. That route may literally be the only way we escape getting out of oligarchical fascism, which I believe nearly any other candidate, including Hillary, will lock us into.
CNN last polled a month ago, sure. But Fox polled last week. The methodologies are probably a bit different, but in terms of reading the changing mood of the country, it's probably better to take week-to-week polling than month-to-month polling.
Of course, there isn't a 'single' poll showing Joe peeling support from Clinton. There are two polls that show that kind of change though, and that's FOX (8/11-8/13) to CNN (8/13-8/16).
On RealClearPolitics:
It's not really surprising that Biden would gain percentage from recent news coverage about a possible Biden run. If you're going to crow over one poll, make sure you check RealClearPolitics first.
But yes, you think you're an expert in polls. Sure. Is it really so abhorrent, the idea that Biden might be the one taking support from Hillary? Instead of Bernie?
Melkr_ right now:
The only realistic shot is Bernie Sanders, it's no wonder DNC doesn't want more debates because they know Clinton will just come out worse off. They bet on the wrong horse yet again - guess they will never learn from their mistakes. Clinton is the DNC's Romney and like him doesn't have an actual shot in the election.
2 or 3.
I won't begrudge anyone supporting whomever they want in the primary, but if you're in a swing state in the general election, I do have a major problem with temper tantruming on General Election Day. Loss of the Supreme Court puts the progressive movement on ice for at least a few decades. We can lose in 2016, watch the GOP president replace Ginsburg/Scalia/Kennedy with young justices, and then a Bernie-tier Democrat could win in 2020 and 2024.. and anything progressive that this new Bernie-tiered president signs into law would be vulnerable to court challenge.
You think Ultra left Sanders has a better shot then Hillary? Lol okay.
I have a question.
Where are these poll numbers coming from, cold calls? What questions are they asking? Who would you vote for? Who would you vote for from the current pool of candidates?
What kind of goofy individual is answering Joe Biden? What are Joe's credentials? Are these people planning on writing him in?
A lot of similar polls are also showing a large percentage of people are interested in seeing Michelle Obama on a ticket, does that make any freaking sense? In light of this, why are we even taking Joe Biden poll numbers seriously?
Where are these poll numbers coming from, cold calls? What questions are they asking? Who would you vote for? Who would you vote for from the current pool of candidates?
What kind of goofy individual is answering Joe Biden? What are Joe's credentials? Are these people planning on writing him in?
A lot of similar polls are also showing a large percentage of people are interested in seeing Michelle Obama on a ticket, does that make any freaking sense? In light of this, why are we even taking Joe Biden poll numbers seriously?
Possibly 3-4 Supreme Court Justices could be changed by the end of the next presidential term. Ginsburg, Kennedy and Scalia are the oldest and most likely to be replaced, and possibly Breyer. If Clinton wins, she'll most likely add younger, liberal justices that would affect rulings for decades, if a Republican wins, they could possibly take away a liberal vote, take away Kennedy who's been a swing vote and get 2-3 young and very conservative justices. It's been a long time since there has been a chance to have such a change for the SCOTUS. Obviously nothing can also happen.
ScatheZombie
Member
Bernie Sanders has been a politician for 35 years.
I'm confused as to why people think he's not a career politician or that he's less of a 'Washington Insider' than other candidates. Is it because his policies are different than the norm? Because he (for the moment) is shrugging off certain high profile political donors?
Like, I understand that the shifting political climate has finally allowed something this left-leaning a fair shake in an election season, and that's something left-leaning under-represented people can rally behind, but let's stop pretending Sanders hasn't been a congressman for 25 years.
And your point is? I didn't indicate Republican levels of insane candidacy was what I was okay with. Having a handy field of contenders in the primaries, like the Democrats are currently approaching, is a-okay.
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