Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Looks like the NDP will be running a star candidate in the riding Justin Trudeau is running in.
http://montrealgazette.com/news/loc...or-the-ndp-in-papineau-against-justin-trudeau

What are the chances that he actually loses that riding.

He won a pretty healthy margin in 2011; the national swing is clearly going to be in his favour since then. The provincial swing is clearly going to be in his favour since then. The only real challenge would be if Bloc support in the riding collapsed quite badly and it all went to the NDP (as Trudeau didn't get a majority in either election and the combined Bloc+NDP vote share would be). In general I am pretty suspicious of "star candidates" writ large. I abiding theory in parliamentary systems is that people largely vote for parties, not candidates, and that's where I am. Not that it doesn't matter at all, but I'm suspicious when people think it's going to make the difference.

Leaders do lose their seats, but normally when their parties get whooped.

A complete history of party leaders losing their seats in Canada, since the formation of the NDP
- 2011 Ignatieff (Liberals down 43 seats, down 7%)
- 2011 Duceppe (Bloc down 43 seats, down 6%)
- 1993 Campbell (PCs down 154 seats, down 27%)
- 1980 Roy (SoCred annihilated all seats lost, down 3%)
- 1974 Lewis (NPD down 15 seats, down 3%)
- 1968 Douglas (NPD vote and seat share didn't change, but Douglas' seat got dissolved and he got hosed on the new seat's district)

So, I guess my question do you would be do you expect the Liberals to lose seats and votes?
 

Morrigan Stark

Arrogant Smirk
There isn't much if any difference between the Bloc or NDP vote in QC anyway.
Eh? What do you mean?

The NDP is guaranteed a win in my riding.
Just like Duceppe was always guaranteed to win, right? I don't think anyone expected him to lose in 2011. I don't necessarily expect him to win now, but you never know.

Now that the balance of the force will return to normal after Oct 19. We can finally vote for who we really like best.
You sound hopelessly naive.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Just like Duceppe was always guaranteed to win, right? I don't think anyone expected him to lose in 2011. I don't necessarily expect him to win now, but you never know.

He lost because the Bloc got blew out. If the Bloc hadn't gotten blew out, he wouldn't have lost. His personal popularity remained decent until the end and he had plenty of money to outspend his opponents. The Bloc's numbers haven't really recovered (in 2011, they got a quarter of the Quebec vote, they're polling at ~16% in Quebec now). The NDP is polling about where they were in Quebec last election, and the Liberals have soaked up both Conservative votes and the differential from the Bloc.

I don't think it's, like, a foregone conclusion because nothing short of running unopposed is. But if I was in Duceppe's riding and wanted him to lose, I'd feel comfortable voting Green or Rhinoceros or whatever my true feelings are without fear that it could be a trojan horse for him to come back.
 

mo60

Member
He won a pretty healthy margin in 2011; the national swing is clearly going to be in his favour since then. The provincial swing is clearly going to be in his favour since then. The only real challenge would be if Bloc support in the riding collapsed quite badly and it all went to the NDP (as Trudeau didn't get a majority in either election and the combined Bloc+NDP vote share would be). In general I am pretty suspicious of "star candidates" writ large. I abiding theory in parliamentary systems is that people largely vote for parties, not candidates, and that's where I am. Not that it doesn't matter at all, but I'm suspicious when people think it's going to make the difference.

Leaders do lose their seats, but normally when their parties get whooped.

A complete history of party leaders losing their seats in Canada, since the formation of the NDP
- 2011 Ignatieff (Liberals down 43 seats, down 7%)
- 2011 Duceppe (Bloc down 43 seats, down 6%)
- 1993 Campbell (PCs down 154 seats, down 27%)
- 1980 Roy (SoCred annihilated all seats lost, down 3%)
- 1974 Lewis (NPD down 15 seats, down 3%)
- 1968 Douglas (NPD vote and seat share didn't change, but Douglas' seat got dissolved and he got hosed on the new seat's district)

So, I guess my question do you would be do you expect the Liberals to lose seats and votes?

So far it looks like he has a good chance of winning his riding again, but the latest poll numbers were before the NDP chose this candidate to run in that riding. I do not expect the liberals to lose seats overall in this election. They may lose some seats but they will definitely gain more seats than they lose this election.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
Whoever wins should make it illegal for signs. It's a waste of money, resources and it's a fucking eyesore, especially when street corners are filled with 27 signs.

I don't like them either. I got it put on more as a statement against all the Conservative signs that will inevitably be going up on my street and to prevent the Conservative candidates volunteers from wasting their time and mine by coming to our house(because we're voting for anyone but the Conservatives).

I'm contemplating putting up an NDP sign too since we have some NDP voters in my house(and my vote may go either Liberal or NDP depending on who has the best chance to beat the Conservative candidate).
 

maharg

idspispopd
He won a pretty healthy margin in 2011; the national swing is clearly going to be in his favour since then. The provincial swing is clearly going to be in his favour since then. The only real challenge would be if Bloc support in the riding collapsed quite badly and it all went to the NDP (as Trudeau didn't get a majority in either election and the combined Bloc+NDP vote share would be). In general I am pretty suspicious of "star candidates" writ large. I abiding theory in parliamentary systems is that people largely vote for parties, not candidates, and that's where I am. Not that it doesn't matter at all, but I'm suspicious when people think it's going to make the difference.

Leaders do lose their seats, but normally when their parties get whooped.

A complete history of party leaders losing their seats in Canada, since the formation of the NDP
- 2011 Ignatieff (Liberals down 43 seats, down 7%)
- 2011 Duceppe (Bloc down 43 seats, down 6%)
- 1993 Campbell (PCs down 154 seats, down 27%)
- 1980 Roy (SoCred annihilated all seats lost, down 3%)
- 1974 Lewis (NPD down 15 seats, down 3%)
- 1968 Douglas (NPD vote and seat share didn't change, but Douglas' seat got dissolved and he got hosed on the new seat's district)

So, I guess my question do you would be do you expect the Liberals to lose seats and votes?

Well, that's federal. I can think of a couple of examples of *premiers* losing their seats to modest swings in party fortunes, at least in terms of seat count. In the 2013 BC election Christy Clark lost her seat in spite of her party gaining seats overall, iirc. Also Don Getty in Alberta in 1989 lost his seat on his party losing 2. I think in recent federal politics it's just been pretty rare for leaders to not be in extremely safe seats, so it takes more massive swings to oust them.
 
Anyone know what the situation in Brampton is like? I think it is heavy conservative last time I lived there. My family home is there and it is technically my riding where I get my voters card but I haven't lived there for years. Will go down to vote if I can make a difference but also wondering if I can vote where I am living now. What is required to vote in a different riding where I am living now?
 
Anyone know what the situation in Brampton is like? I think it is heavy conservative last time I lived there. My family home is there and it is technically my riding where I get my voters card but I haven't lived there for years. Will go down to vote if I can make a difference but also wondering if I can vote where I am living now. What is required to vote in a different riding where I am living now?

If you haven't lived there in years, what is stopping you from re-registering your new/current residence as your voting riding? Hell, with the change in voting laws, you may even be required to.
Edit: That said, you can find riding information on ThreeHundredEight Its the best we got right now.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Anyone know what the situation in Brampton is like? I think it is heavy conservative last time I lived there. My family home is there and it is technically my riding where I get my voters card but I haven't lived there for years. Will go down to vote if I can make a difference but also wondering if I can vote where I am living now. What is required to vote in a different riding where I am living now?

Arguably you quite simply should not vote in a riding you don't live in, but as long as you don't try to vote in both you probably won't have any problems. But you have to show ID with your address on it now, so if you've changed your driver's license and aren't getting any bills at your prior residence you'll probably have a harder time voting there.
 
Eh? What do you mean?


Just like Duceppe was always guaranteed to win, right? I don't think anyone expected him to lose in 2011. I don't necessarily expect him to win now, but you never know.


You sound hopelessly naive.

Labour unions in Quebec have dropped the Bloc = the Bloc is dead.

labour unions in Quebec are doing an "anybody" but Harper campaign and support NDP candidates in contested Conservative competitive ridings.

He lost because the Bloc got blew out. If the Bloc hadn't gotten blew out, he wouldn't have lost. His personal popularity remained decent until the end and he had plenty of money to outspend his opponents. The Bloc's numbers haven't really recovered (in 2011, they got a quarter of the Quebec vote, they're polling at ~16% in Quebec now). The NDP is polling about where they were in Quebec last election, and the Liberals have soaked up both Conservative votes and the differential from the Bloc.

I don't think it's, like, a foregone conclusion because nothing short of running unopposed is. But if I was in Duceppe's riding and wanted him to lose, I'd feel comfortable voting Green or Rhinoceros or whatever my true feelings are without fear that it could be a trojan horse for him to come back.

the riding or Laurier-Ste-Marie is Left Wing 1st then souvernist 2nd.
The Conservatives poll the lowest in all of Canada in Laurier-Ste-Marie falling to 5th place. The Greens double the Conservatives LOL
+ the riding now has a strange redraw where it includes a certain portion of the Downtown core which is more mainstream Federalist that hovers between NDP and Liberals but more NDPish

*Provincially, this riding (Mercier) is one of the 3 ridings that elected an Qc MNA for the Extremist Far Left wing party called Quebec Solidaire.

Ever since the the Provincial PQ has chosen a Right Wing Union-Busting Billionaire media mogul as their Leader.... it has created a wedge among Left and Right souvernists. The Bloc being 100% backed by the PQ ties the Bloc with everything PQ.

The more Left leaning souvernists who put more importance on socialism first are voting NDP not Bloc.
 

Silexx

Member
Eh? What do you mean?


Just like Duceppe was always guaranteed to win, right? I don't think anyone expected him to lose in 2011. I don't necessarily expect him to win now, but you never know.


You sound hopelessly naive.

I know it's gutter_trash, but he's made it very clear that he's voting for the party whose policies best line up with his and you want to call him out by saying his choice makes no sense and he sounds naive?

I'm sorry, but trying shaming someone for their voting choice is really low and I hope we can keep this kind of attitude out of this thread.
 

Sapiens

Member
There's no way Trudeau loses a vote in his own riding, especially considering the star candidate has lost two elections of her own.
 
I know it's gutter_trash, but he's made it very clear that he's voting for the party whose policies best line up with his and you want to call him out by saying his choice makes no sense and he sounds naive?

I'm sorry, but trying shaming someone for their voting choice is really low and I hope we can keep this kind of attitude out of this thread.

it's mostly symbolic. I did my duty in 2008 and 2011 voting for Jack's NDP in Duceppe's riding

now that the Bloc is down, I can go back to voting for however I want regardless of strategic voting

There's no way Trudeau loses a vote in his own riding, especially considering the star candidate has lost two elections of her own.
an English language radio personality (Anne Lagacé Dowson) is running as the NDP candidate in Papineau against Trudeau. She would have stood a better chance in a more Anglophone riding.
Papineau is half Francophone and half new-Canadians of various ethnic origins but not much Anlgos. Trudeau has a lock on Papineau due to strength of the "ethnic vote" in parts of Montreal going Liberal.

She ran in Westmount-Ville-Marie in 2011 which was very close. 2011's draw of Westmount-Ville-Marie included the Downtown core. Astronaut Marc Garneau narrowly won it again by a slim slim margin.

Now Westmount is redrawn in 2015 as NDG-Westmount without the Downtown core. NDG is more ethnicly diverse, so Marc Garneau will win more easily this time then he did 4 years ago.
 

Silexx

Member
it's mostly symbolic. I did my duty in 2008 and 2011 voting for Jack's NDP in Duceppe's riding

now that the Bloc is down, I can go back to voting for however I want regardless of strategic voting

Your reasons for voting are your own, we shouldn't be trying to shame each other for it.
 
I think I'm goin to vote liberal, ndp is too far left, and I fear they will screw the economy even more

Mulcair's position on raising the corporate tax rates is quite troublesome, especially in time where we must be competitive with the US on attracting companies to set up shop.

This is why I prefer a more centrist point of view on this particular issue.

Want jobs? got make the field more attractive for companies to set up shop

Hiking the corporate tax rates is not the way.

Liberals have more responsible approach
 

jstripes

Banned
Mulcair's position on raising the corporate tax rates is quite troublesome, especially in time where we must be competitive with the US on attracting companies to set up shop.

This is why I prefer a more centrist point of view on this particular issue.

Want jobs? got make the field more attractive for companies to set up shop

Hiking the corporate tax rates is not the way.

Liberals have more responsible approach

If Mulcair's going to form a government, there's no way he's going to get a majority. So raising corporate taxes isn't likely to happen.

Minority governments have a nice moderating effect.
 

Morrigan Stark

Arrogant Smirk
I know it's gutter_trash, but he's made it very clear that he's voting for the party whose policies best line up with his and you want to call him out by saying his choice makes no sense and he sounds naive?

I'm sorry, but trying shaming someone for their voting choice is really low and I hope we can keep this kind of attitude out of this thread.
Uhhh what? I would suggest you read the rest of the conversation to get more context before you jump the gun. I don't shame anyone for their votes. If he said he voted for the policies that match his, that'd be one thing, but he himself repeatedly said in the past that he'd vote strategically instead of according to party policies.

As for the naive thing, it's referring to his seemingly absolute certainty that not only the CPC will lose the elections (far from guaranteed even if I dearly hope it happens), but that Justin Trudeau will be PM and the Liberals will win, which is honestly bizarre. Not on his voting choice.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Well, that's federal. I can think of a couple of examples of *premiers* losing their seats to modest swings in party fortunes, at least in terms of seat count. In the 2013 BC election Christy Clark lost her seat in spite of her party gaining seats overall, iirc. Also Don Getty in Alberta in 1989 lost his seat on his party losing 2. I think in recent federal politics it's just been pretty rare for leaders to not be in extremely safe seats, so it takes more massive swings to oust them.

This is certainly the case; over the last 40 years, the professionalization of federal politics has led to rising stars entering the house in safe seats (especially those entering the house as party leaders, often by forcing existing MPs or candidates to step down). I completely agree that you'd identified the reason. It's also why Trudeau picked a reasonably liberal (and immigrant-filled) Montreal riding to run in to begin with.

Whereas in provincial politics, a lot more people meander their way through for 20 years and end up party leaders by default.

But the fact remains, I can't envision a scenario where Trudeau loses his seat, especially not for something as specious as "a star candidate being run against him".
 
This is certainly the case; over the last 40 years, the professionalization of federal politics has led to rising stars entering the house in safe seats (especially those entering the house as party leaders, often by forcing existing MPs or candidates to step down). I completely agree that you'd identified the reason. It's also why Trudeau picked a reasonably liberal (and immigrant-filled) Montreal riding to run in to begin with.

Whereas in provincial politics, a lot more people meander their way through for 20 years and end up party leaders by default.

But the fact remains, I can't envision a scenario where Trudeau loses his seat, especially not for something as specious as "a star candidate being run against him".

Papineau is more Francophone than it iss immigrant filled. It's not a safe riding considering that the Bloc won in 2006 there. Provincially, that area is not Liberal at all.

Papineau spills 70% of it into the Eastern divide of Montreal where it is more French speaking than it is English.

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Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
It's true the Bloc won it in 2006 (a down year for the Liberals nationally and in Quebec--the Liberal vote in the riding actually dropped a lot in 2004 and 2006). That's the only time it or any of its precedent ridings was ever won by someone other than the Liberal candidate. As far as I can tell (checking a Canadian Politics text from 2008), it has one of the highest percentage of immigrants of any riding in Montreal, mostly "recent arrivals", one of the highest percentages of racial minorities in Montreal, and the second-highest allophone percentage after Mount Royal. I think I feel pretty confident characterizing the riding as immigrant-heavy is accurate. I don't have anything more recent and I don't pretend to be a Quebec expert, but it looks like a pretty safe seat to me.

I'm also not super convinced journalists live up to their "star candidate" reputations, and Dowson already ran and lost (pretty badly) in the past. Not to say 2015 in Quebec for the NDP is the same as 2008 in Quebec for the NDP, but I'm not sure my prior would be to treat this as a serious challenge.
 
Anne Lagace Dowson is known among English speaking Montrealers who listen to AM Radio but she is a complete unknown to those who don't listen to AM talk radio, let alone English AM talk radio in a a non-Anglo riding

the word "star" in star candidate should be reserved for candidates who have enough noriety among the locals to be considered a "star"

like Liberal Melanie Joly won the nomination in Ahuntsic-Cartierville, she is considered to be a Star Candidate going up against Bloc survivor Maria Mourani (who left the Bloc during the PQ's Charter of Values saga) and is now running for the NDP
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Mulcair's position on raising the corporate tax rates is quite troublesome, especially in time where we must be competitive with the US on attracting companies to set up shop.

This is why I prefer a more centrist point of view on this particular issue.

Want jobs? got make the field more attractive for companies to set up shop

Hiking the corporate tax rates is not the way.

Liberals have more responsible approach

Canada's combined fed/prov rate (~26%) is already dramatically lower than the USA's (~39%). The NDP could increase corporate taxes by 10 points and Canada would still be more competitive than the USA. Of course the NDP is not advancing that idea. They've stated they will increase taxes no greater than the average of the G7 (~29%) so Canada will be still be more competitive than most industrialized nations under the NDP. Not a lot of reckless socialism to be found here. It's actually a very timid policy plank.

The Conservatives have repeatedly cut corporate taxes and yet Canadian productivity remains low and the economy is weak. Time for a different approach.
 

Morrigan Stark

Arrogant Smirk
As far as I can tell (checking a Canadian Politics text from 2008), it has one of the highest percentage of immigrants of any riding in Montreal, mostly "recent arrivals", one of the highest percentages of racial minorities in Montreal, and the second-highest allophone percentage after Mount Royal. I think I feel pretty confident characterizing the riding as immigrant-heavy is accurate. I don't have anything more recent and I don't pretend to be a Quebec expert, but it looks like a pretty safe seat to me.
Safe seat for the Bloc, or Liberal? Immigrant voters rarely vote for the Bloc, of course, but if most of those immigrants are, as you say, recent arrivals, then they won't be eligible to vote...
 
When you hear someone actually say "I just don't know if Justin is ready..." within an hour of saying something really negative about the conservatives is when you realize these ads often work even on people who otherwise think they're stupid trash.

When even my hardcore lefty, lifelong Dipper, Harper-despising father-in-law repeated them back to me, that's when I realized that they were a little more effective than it first seemed. That said, I don't they're as bad for Trudeau as the Iggy/Dion negative ads. Whereas the "Just visiting" and "Not a leader" taglines were character assassination, "Not ready" is something that can be overcome, sometimes easily -- just look at how people reacted to his debate performance. Plus there's good evidence that Trudeau's counter-ad of what he's just not ready for worked well, too. Like you (I think it was you?), I'm not crazy about repeating the attack lines against you, but if he can make it work, I'm fine with it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PikszBkfTHM

Kim Campell's PC's attack ad on Jean Chrétien backfired on them in 93

If you listen to Warren Kinsella (former Liberal strategist), the PC attack ad on Chretien actually worked for the brief period they aired -- those few days the ads were on TV were the only time during the election that the PC numbers rose/the Liberal numbers fell. People claim to hate attack ads, but they work.

Canada's combined fed/prov rate (~26%) is already dramatically lower than the USA's (~39%). The NDP could increase corporate taxes by 10 points and Canada would still be more competitive than the USA. Of course the NDP is not advancing that idea. They've stated they will increase taxes no greater than the average of the G7 (~29%) so Canada will be still be more competitive than most industrialized nations under the NDP. Not a lot of reckless socialism to be found here. It's actually a very timid policy plank.

The Conservatives have repeatedly cut corporate taxes and yet Canadian productivity remains low and the economy is weak. Time for a different approach.

Pssst...your guy is now walking back his promise to raise the corporate tax rate. Perhaps because he realized that raising corporate taxes has a negligible impact on the economy.
 

Silexx

Member
If you listen to Warren Kinsella (former Liberal strategist), the PC attack ad on Chretien actually worked for the brief period they aired -- those few days the ads were on TV were the only time during the election that the PC numbers rose/the Liberal numbers fell. People claim to hate attack ads, but they work.

Yep, it was Chretien's 'Little guy from Shawinigan' speech made in reaction to the ad that really put him over at the time.
 
Yep, it was Chretien's 'Little guy from Shawinigan' speech made in reaction to the ad that really put him over at the time.

I'd completely forgotten about that part!

Jean Chretien said:
Last night, the Conservative Party reached a new low; they tried to make fun of the way I look. God gave me a physical defect, and I accepted that since I'm a kid. [sic] It's true, that I speak on one side of my mouth. I'm not a Tory, I don't speak on both sides of my mouth.

Side note: "]he looks so much younger, and I feel so much older.
 
Chrétien was a street fighter and had quick wits with awesome counters.

Dion and Iggy were unable to fight back.

Justin has to fight back or lose
 
Chretien and Justin both grew up with Justin's dad

false

Chretien was already an MP before Pierre Trudeau was ever elected himself as an MP.

Chretien had a tougher upbringing than Pierre Trudeau and Chretien had a tougher ladder to climb through his life. That scrappiness proved well for Chretien who stood his ground against George W. Bush, the Separatists and the Conservative yahoos.

Justin Trudeau had a more ''comfortable'' life and often people with comfortable lives forget how to fight

to say that Chretien was ''brought'' up by Pierre is re-writing history. Chretien probably helped guide Pierre Trudeau more than vice versa
 

SRG01

Member
false

Chretien was already an MP before Pierre Trudeau was ever elected himself as an MP.

Chretien had a tougher upbringing than Pierre Trudeau and Chretien had a tougher ladder to climb through his life. That scrappiness proved well for Chretien who stood his ground against George W. Bush, the Separatists and the Conservative yahoos.

Justin Trudeau had a more ''comfortable'' life and often people with comfortable lives forget how to fight

to say that Chretien was ''brought'' up by Pierre is re-writing history. Chretien probably helped guide Pierre Trudeau more than vice versa

Yup, didn't Chretien have a hand in the October crisis with Trudeau as well?
 

gabbo

Member
false

Chretien was already an MP before Pierre Trudeau was ever elected himself as an MP.

Chretien had a tougher upbringing than Pierre Trudeau and Chretien had a tougher ladder to climb through his life. That scrappiness proved well for Chretien who stood his ground against George W. Bush, the Separatists and the Conservative yahoos.

Justin Trudeau had a more ''comfortable'' life and often people with comfortable lives forget how to fight

to say that Chretien was ''brought'' up by Pierre is re-writing history. Chretien probably helped guide Pierre Trudeau more than vice versa

All I meant was he was a minister in his government, nothing more.
But thank you for laying that all out anyway
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
Just wondering, but what's the penalty in Canada for lying under oath?

Because I'm having a really hard time believing that Chris Woodcock missed the single most important line in an email sent to him by his superior.
 

D'@rtagnan

Neo Member
Just wondering, but what's the penalty in Canada for lying under oath?

Because I'm having a really hard time believing that Chris Woodcock missed the single most important line in an email sent to him by his superior.

Even Jim Flaherty thought Harper was full of it ....

https://www.facebook.com/drigcanada/videos/895760827209726/?fref=nf

Well... Ok maybe it was a random facial expression but made me laugh to think that even conservatives don't buy Harper's line.
 

Boogie

Member
Just wondering, but what's the penalty in Canada for lying under oath?

Because I'm having a really hard time believing that Chris Woodcock missed the single most important line in an email sent to him by his superior.

I love it when people who don't have to deal with the justice system on a regular basis get all worked up over the idea that someone would lie in their testimony on the stand.

It's so cute. ;P
 

iLLmAtlc

Member
Just wondering, but what's the penalty in Canada for lying under oath?

Because I'm having a really hard time believing that Chris Woodcock missed the single most important line in an email sent to him by his superior.

Perjury, someone has to make a false statement with the intent to mislead the court. So it can't just be because he forgot.
 

Boogie

Member
Perjury, someone has to make a false statement with the intent to mislead the court. So it can't just be because he forgot.

And to actually answer the question, the max penalty is 14 years imprisonment.

Of course, max penalties are utterly irrelevant in this country.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
I love it when people who don't have to deal with the justice system on a regular basis get all worked up over the idea that someone would lie in their testimony on the stand.

It's so cute. ;P

Is dealing with the justice system on a regular basis a prerequisite for not particularly enjoying the fact that someone may be blatantly lying in their testimony?
 
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