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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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I like how it's "no support out west" when Nanos' latest regional breakdown has the Liberals #1 in BC and ahead of the NDP in Manitoba/Saskatchewan/Alberta.
 
Azih said:
The incredibly odd narrative in Canadian politics is that the only way to 'win' is to win a majority. It speaks to how winning a fake majority and then having full power for four years is what the big parties lust after. It's such an ugly and distorted way of doing politics. There's no incentive to cooperate just hold fire until the opposition is splintered and then force an election. That's the behaviour that disporoprtional winner take all systems like FPTP and AV require.

Parch: The NDP wasn't a truly national party until Layton won in Quebec and Notley won in Alberta and they seem to have squandered the opportunity to fully conslidate that. The Libs and Cons have a much greater claim to being not a regional concern. I agree with you that the Greens are the only truly national party though. Even support throughout the nation. They really need to get the dozen or so seats that they and their voters deserve.
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Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I think 150-seat minorities would be the best case scenario for the country...if party politics weren't so dominant.

A strong opposition--especially split between right and left--is an important check and balance on our country that a majority simply doesn't have.
 
Parch said:
Regional politics have always been a problem in Canada. It's really only the NDP and Green who are truly national parties. Obviously Green isn't going anywhere but the failure of the NDP is disappointing. Canada needs to stop living in the past.

The Liberals are not a national party. They have never had full support from the west. They never have and never will. The Liberals have always been Ontario first. Even when they've had a french leader, it's always been Ontario first. Quebec sees this now.

The Conservatives are more of a national party than the Liberals. They've always had significant support in Ontario as well as the west. It was Reform who were preferential to the west and the current Conservatives still carry that torch.

So if Canada wants to have a party that represents the entire country, it should have been the NDP. Seems unlikely it's going to happen now with this leader but they need to have a good showing to keep that hope alive for the future. If Canada is going to unite under one party without regional interests, it's sure as hell isn't going to happen with the Conservatives or Liberals.
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I just swallowed my own puke on your bolded.

The Mulcair is doing a pandering job towards soft-nationalists which is a very Provincial focussed campaign strategy at the detrimint of the minorities inside that province.

The Liberals are open tent, pan-Canadian, all inclusive.

The NDP has strategically chosen to turn its backs to minorities in Quebec by opting for a Nationalist stance Provincially to win votes among the White Francophone Majority of the Province.
(NDP pandering stances: Bill 101 extended to Federal Institutions inside Quebec, Sherbrooke Declaration and scrapping the Clarity Act)

I don't want a Robert Bourassa half-measures type leading our entire country. I have had enough of nationalist panderers politically in this Province, don't need one Federally.
(Conservatives included since the Cons do it from the Right flank)
.
Watch Montreal turn hot Red while the NDP lose lots of seats in this city
 
Silexx said:
What's with this 'NDP were the chosen ones' narrative you got going on?
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Where did I say that?

It's obviously not going to happen. The NDP blew it and there's nothing "chosen" about Mulcair.

But going back to failed Conservatives or failed Liberals is just living in the past. I'd like the country to do a little forward thinking for a change.
 
Parch said:
Where did I say that?

It's obviously not going to happen. The NDP blew it and there's nothing "chosen" about Mulcair.

But going back to failed Conservatives or failed Liberals is just living in the past. I'd like the country to do a little forward thinking for a change.
Click to expand...

The failed Liberals are a party of 4 years ago. Talk about living in the past.
 
dragonfart28 said:
Lol

The Layton historical revisionism is a bit much here. He wasn't as revered as people make him out to be.

He only got this legacy because he died.

If you look at voters in 905 they didn't give a fuck about Layton and they still wouldn't today. We would have the same dynamic playing out there and the niqab issue would be the same in Quebec.
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Layton's popularity was increasing every year. Mulcair did an absolutely horrible job of defending his position on the niqab and yes I do think Layton would have actually provided logic to his reasoning, arresting any potential NDP slide in Quebec.

But anyway who knows, he's not here anymore.

Parch said:
Voting for a leader named "Trudeau" is living in the past.
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That doesn't even make sense. Go listen to his vice interview posted a few pages back. His ideas are a much much needed breath of fresh air and he's saying all the right things. Pro science, pro multiculturalism, pro inclusion. Hopefully pro PR. These policies are hardly living in the past.
 
Apparently the NDP are releasing their full platform today. Had a glance at their website and didn't see any obvious PDF so I guess it's showing up later.

This deep into the campaign not a lot of surprises here.

Full NDP platform promises democratic reform, cut to bank fees

Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats have unveiled their full campaign platform, promising to reform the democratic system in Canada, cut banking and credit costs, and make it more affordable to get a college or university degree.

Most of the plan revealed by party officials on Friday has been announced by the NDP Leader during the long election campaign that began early in August. The top priorities of the New Democrats remain the provision of affordable childcare, strengthening the health-care system, protecting the environment, and creating jobs.

But there were a few items contained in the glossy 72-page campaign document that have not been expressly spelled out previously by Mr. Mulcair.

The New Democrats would respond to the Conservative tactic of burying multiple legislative changes inside mammoth omnibus budget bills by giving the Speaker of the House the power to break those large bills apart if they are too unwieldy to permit adequate analysis by MPs.

And they would change the law to allow Canadians living abroad to vote in federal elections – a right that was lost to all of those who have spent more than five years in a different country after the Conservative government convinced a court last July that the five-year rule was reasonable.

The NDP hopes its policies will bring voters on the centre and left of the political spectrum – those who are keen to eject Conservatives – back into their fold. Although the steep decline in support for Mr. Mulcair and his party that began two weeks ago seems to have levelled off, and polls suggest there may have already been a bit of a rebound, the New Democrats still lag behind the Liberal and the Tories as voting day draws near.

Included in their platform, called “Building the Canada of our Dreams,” is a plan to reform the political system and “make every vote count.” The NDP is promising that, if elected, it will introduce a system of voting based on mixed-member proportional representation. That would create a Parliament composed of MPs elected in larger ridings than currently exist, plus those appointed by parties based on the proportion of the vote they received during an election.

Although proportional representation has long been NDP policy, this is the first time the party has said it would create a task force made up of members of all parties that would decide the best model for this type of democracy – and that it would be done within the first mandate.

The New Democrats are also trying to tap into anger about the money charged by banks and other financial institutions.

Former NDP leader Jack Layton campaigned against the high cost of ATM fees – and Mr. Mulcair says he would also limit the amount the banks may charge for dispensing money to 50 cents per transaction. But Mr. Mulcair would go further, ensuring that all Canadians have “reasonable access” to a no-frills credit card with an interest rate set at no more than 5 per cent over prime.

The New Democrats would also lower fees that workers in Canada must spend when sending money to their families abroad, crack down on excessive cell-phone roaming charges, and create a gasoline ombudsman to investigate complaints about anti-competitive practices.

On higher education, they would phase out interest on all federal student loans and boost the funding for the Canada Student Grants program by $250-million.

NDP officials say their plan, which has been costed within the constraints of a balanced budget, is bold, ambitious and fiscally responsible. It relies on increasing the corporate tax rate from 15 per cent to 17 per cent, and closing tax loopholes for CEOs to provide money to the poor.

It also is heavily weighted toward environmental protection with a suite of large promises, including the introduction of a cap-and-trade system to reduce greenhouse gases, and small promises like the rollout of electric-car charging stations – a promise they say will cost $12-million in the first year of their mandate.

The NDP says it would bring in a pan-Canadian cap-and-trade plan that recognizes the efforts the efforts already underway in British Columbia, Alberta Onto and Quebec, allowing jurisdictions to opt out if their own carbon pricing meets or exceeds national standards.

The NDP is promising a more open and transparent government with fiscal policy statements that accompany every budget that would lay out fiscal goals, including debt-to-GDP ratios, plus spending and growth targets. They say they would also provide quarterly financial updates and departmental spending would be fully reported online.
Click to expand...
 
Was there any analysis what would have happen in the previous election if ranked ballot or MMPR is used?

I think the Liberal prefers RB only because they will benefit the most from it.
 
Entropia said:
Platform url doesn't seem to be working. Internet hug of death??


I think it's too little too late to be getting this out. And really, shouldn't these be out like atleast a month before the election, not 2 weeks before?
Click to expand...

The Liberals released their platform like in early october if I recall also.There's also a section of the NDP's platform where they literally mention something that trudeau kept on bashing them on in this election. Guess what it it?

Another link to their platform
http://xfer.ndp.ca/2015/2015-Full-Platform-EN-PRINT.pdf
 
Don't act like Justin's name had absolutely nothing to do with him being voted party leader.

Good luck to him. At this point all we can hope for is that the resurgence of the Liberal party isn't the reason the Conservatives get back in power.
 
Apparently Harper's aiming slightly higher than Tim Hudak:

daOGCGR.jpg
Click to expand...
 
mo60 said:
The Liberals released their platform like in early october if I recall also.There's also a section of the NDP's platform where they literally mention something that trudeau kept on bashing them on in this election. Guess what it it?

Another link to their platform
http://xfer.ndp.ca/2015/2015-Full-Platform-EN-PRINT.pdf
Click to expand...

Thanks.

I'm liking what the NDP has there, but it's getting more and more viable to put Trudeau in office rather than Mulcair because the way the rest of the country is swaying.
 
Just got home from voting, took a total of 3 minutes from the moment I walked in to the moment I got out.

Don't worry guys, Pretty sure it is going to be my vote that pushes Scarborough-Agincourt for a Liberal win. You're welcome.
 
Tiktaalik said:
ProTip: Go early in the morning.
Click to expand...

ProTip: Not all advance polls open in the morning.

Mine only opens at noon on each advance polling day.

I was there at 12:15 and it took my GF and I about ~20 min, so no real complaints. But there was definitely a line-up of ~15 people behind us when we were done.
 
Alavard said:
ProTip: Not all advance polls open in the morning.

Mine only opens at noon on each advance polling day.

I was there at 12:15 and it took my GF and I about ~20 min, so no real complaints. But there was definitely a line-up of ~15 people behind us when we were done.
Click to expand...
I'd say you shouldn't go right after it opens either because people tend to wait and line up around that time.

I got lucky, went a half-hour ago and I only had to wait for one person to finish before it was my turn.

As a side-note and kinda in the same vein as the pencil issue, I'm always amazed at the technology or lack thereof during elections. Not even a computer/datbase for noting people who came in, just a huge book where they write names with a pen. No wonder there's so much election fraud..
 
RevoDS said:
I'd say you shouldn't go right after it opens either because people tend to wait and line up around that time.

I got lucky, went a half-hour ago and I only had to wait for one person to finish before it was my turn.

As a side-note and kinda in the same vein as the pencil issue, I'm always amazed at the technology or lack thereof during elections. Not even a computer/datbase for noting people who came in, just a huge book where they write names with a pen. No wonder there's so much election fraud..
Click to expand...

I like our pencil/paper ballot system, but I do wish we had something more like the recent Toronto municipal election used. It was basically a scantron card that was filled out, and a machine verified it before you left. If there was an error (multiple bubbles filled out, bubble not filled out properly, etc.), the machine notified the clerk immediately and you got to fill out a new ballot. Machine-counted results with a full paper trail for recounts.
 
Did my part and voted in the advance polls this afternoon.

Went with the Liberals in the end. Probably won't make a difference, since I'm in Lisa Raitt's riding, and I would imagine she's got quite the stranglehold on it, but we'll see.
 
New IRG poll:
Article - http://www.hilltimes.com/polling/20...ndp-hopes-dim-as-liberals-dare-to-dream/43705
Poll data - http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/si...009_IRG29 Wave 6 Hill Times Oct 9 Release.pdf

(I HIGHLY recommend reading the poll data as it's the most comprehensive poll we've gotten so far, with the raw data being incredible on so many questions...there are 130 pages of graphs and charts!)

LPC - 35%
CPC - 30%
NDP - 24%

Sample size: 3,417 over 3 days (very nice sample size compared to Nanos)

Importantly, the Liberals are up 43 to 31 in Ontario. In Quebec the NDP remains in 1st, likely with enough to keep the Bloc from taking too many seats (which is important should the LPC and NDP need to form an accord if Harper squeaks through a win).

Also, very importantly, the Liberals still show signs of growth, with most unaligned voters leaning toward an LPC vote. So they look to grow in the next 10 days.

EDIT - The CPC's stance on niqabs and the barbaric practices tipline has backfired on them, according to these numbers, as people universally think more negatively of Harper after the tactics.
 
TheGreatPotato said:
New IRG poll:
Article - http://www.hilltimes.com/polling/20...ndp-hopes-dim-as-liberals-dare-to-dream/43705
Poll data - http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/si...009_IRG29 Wave 6 Hill Times Oct 9 Release.pdf

(I HIGHLY recommend reading the poll data as it's the most comprehensive poll we've gotten so far, with the raw data being incredible on so many questions...there are 130 pages of graphs and charts!)

LPC - 35%
CPC - 30%
NDP - 24%

Sample size: 3,417 over 3 days (very nice sample size compared to Nanos)

Importantly, the Liberals are up 43 to 31 in Ontario. In Quebec the NDP remains in 1st, likely with enough to keep the Bloc from taking too many seats (which is important should the LPC and NDP need to form an accord if Harper squeaks through a win).

Also, very importantly, the Liberals still show signs of growth, with most unaligned voters leaning toward an LPC vote. So they look to grow in the next 10 days.
Click to expand...

If the Liberals manage a majority government, I will laugh for days. It won't be as huge of a reversal as PC to Liberals during the 90s but it'll still be pretty funny.
 
matthewwhatever said:
I disagree -- like Buba said, he wasn't nearly aggressive enough right out of the gate. Running a safe frontrunner campaign is fine if you really are a safe frontrunner, but they were never in that position. They were ahead in most polls, but it was usually only by a couple of points over the Conservatives. It felt to me like they were just taking for granted that they were the only alternative, and it backfired on them.
Click to expand...
I remarked as well that they were banking on the Liberals collapsing, which turned out not to be the case, but I think that running a safe campaign was an entirely comprehensible choice when you're trying to woo Liberal voters and want to avoid the traditional label of being too radical for office. It didn't work, but it made sense as a strategy.

Parch said:
The Liberals are not a national party. They have never had full support from the west. They never have and never will. The Liberals have always been Ontario first. Even when they've had a french leader, it's always been Ontario first. Quebec sees this now.
Click to expand...
"Ontario first", not really (not beyond the point where any party would pay attention to the largest electorate in the country, anyway). Also, while they have definitely favoured the east over the west in much of recent history, it is far from accurate to say they have never had major support in the west (I'm not sure what "full support" is; no party ever wins everything in a given region); up until the 1950s the Liberals were a big damn deal on the prairies. And these days they have gotten more votes out west. They could elect MPs in Calgary this election, which hasn't happened since 1968.

Parch said:
Voting for a leader named "Trudeau" is living in the past.
Click to expand...
That's pure foolishness.
 
OCDChewie said:
Green Party wants to create a Disabilities Act and basic income for those with disabilities.

Might get my vote.
Click to expand...

I'm surprised that we don't already have this. o.O

I'd love to vote for the Green Party but I won't because I know that it's a bad vote. Unless you live in a Green riding, you shouldn't vote for them either. It won't help anyone except for the CPC (depending on your riding). The Green Party won't even get money from your vote. It sucks but this is how FPTP works.
 
Tiktaalik said:
Trigger warning for matthewwhatever, there are lots of pictures of a smiling Tom Mulcair in this document.
Click to expand...

AHHHHHH

I appreciate the warning, but it came a little too late for me.

The Conservative platform also came out today. I don't understand the logic of releasing your platform the Friday before a long weekend, but...well, they both did, so they're counting on a lot of web traffic over Thanksgiving dinners, I guess? Seems a little late in the campaign to me.

TheGreatPotato said:
New IRG poll:
Article - http://www.hilltimes.com/polling/20...ndp-hopes-dim-as-liberals-dare-to-dream/43705
Poll data - http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/si...009_IRG29 Wave 6 Hill Times Oct 9 Release.pdf

(I HIGHLY recommend reading the poll data as it's the most comprehensive poll we've gotten so far, with the raw data being incredible on so many questions...there are 130 pages of graphs and charts!)

LPC - 35%
CPC - 30%
NDP - 24%

Sample size: 3,417 over 3 days (very nice sample size compared to Nanos)

Importantly, the Liberals are up 43 to 31 in Ontario. In Quebec the NDP remains in 1st, likely with enough to keep the Bloc from taking too many seats (which is important should the LPC and NDP need to form an accord if Harper squeaks through a win).

Also, very importantly, the Liberals still show signs of growth, with most unaligned voters leaning toward an LPC vote. So they look to grow in the next 10 days.

EDIT - The CPC's stance on niqabs and the barbaric practices tipline has backfired on them, according to these numbers, as people universally think more negatively of Harper after the tactics.
Click to expand...

That's a lot of data! A few points that I think are interesting:
- there are a lot of unsure Bloc voters in Quebec -- they only have 68% of self-identified BQ voters, whereas the other parties all have 80%+. There's room to grow there, and you have to think it would come mainly at the expense of the NDP. For now, though, the NDP seems to be safe in rural Quebec.
- I'm a little surprised to see the NDP as the top second choice -- though I guess that's the natural flipside of dropping back by 10 points. The Liberals were doing really well as a second choice vote when they were that far back too, if I remember correctly.
- the Conservatives in second place (by a point, admittedly) among voters aged 65+? If that's anywhere close to accurate, that would be pretty shocking, since those are votes the CPC has been cultivating for years.
- that analysis of riding clusters is really interesting in so many ways. The Liberals really were on the brink of a PC-style annihilation in 2011, considering their strongest wins were only by 15 points or so, compared to the 25+ point blowouts by the other parties. If they can win over a chunk of those strong CPC ridings, that would be a huge factor in them actually pulling out a win. And if they can win over some of those CPC blowout ridings, that would just be insane. (Alternatively: it really highlights the flaws of those studies that insist the Liberals can't win because they're starting from so far back.)
- the Greens are at 20% on Vancouver Island! I know that another poll had them up at 30 in August, but for them to crack 20% anywhere would be impressive. I still think they pull out a second seat somewhere.
- a 23-point lead for the Liberals in downtown Toronto!
- kind of weird that Harper's net favourability (-24) is right back where it was at the beginning of the campaign, though it explains why they focused so much on their core base. No point going after voters who won't vote for you under any circumstances.
 
TheGreatPotato said:
New IRG poll:
Article - http://www.hilltimes.com/polling/20...ndp-hopes-dim-as-liberals-dare-to-dream/43705
Poll data - http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/si...009_IRG29 Wave 6 Hill Times Oct 9 Release.pdf

(I HIGHLY recommend reading the poll data as it's the most comprehensive poll we've gotten so far, with the raw data being incredible on so many questions...there are 130 pages of graphs and charts!)

LPC - 35%
CPC - 30%
NDP - 24%

Sample size: 3,417 over 3 days (very nice sample size compared to Nanos)

Importantly, the Liberals are up 43 to 31 in Ontario. In Quebec the NDP remains in 1st, likely with enough to keep the Bloc from taking too many seats (which is important should the LPC and NDP need to form an accord if Harper squeaks through a win).

Also, very importantly, the Liberals still show signs of growth, with most unaligned voters leaning toward an LPC vote. So they look to grow in the next 10 days.

EDIT - The CPC's stance on niqabs and the barbaric practices tipline has backfired on them, according to these numbers, as people universally think more negatively of Harper after the tactics.
Click to expand...
Sounds like a mirror scenario of what happened to Pauline in 2013
 
TheGreatPotato said:
New IRG poll:
Article - http://www.hilltimes.com/polling/20...ndp-hopes-dim-as-liberals-dare-to-dream/43705
Poll data - http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/si...009_IRG29 Wave 6 Hill Times Oct 9 Release.pdf

(I HIGHLY recommend reading the poll data as it's the most comprehensive poll we've gotten so far, with the raw data being incredible on so many questions...there are 130 pages of graphs and charts!)

LPC - 35%
CPC - 30%
NDP - 24%

Sample size: 3,417 over 3 days (very nice sample size compared to Nanos)

Importantly, the Liberals are up 43 to 31 in Ontario. In Quebec the NDP remains in 1st, likely with enough to keep the Bloc from taking too many seats (which is important should the LPC and NDP need to form an accord if Harper squeaks through a win).

Also, very importantly, the Liberals still show signs of growth, with most unaligned voters leaning toward an LPC vote. So they look to grow in the next 10 days.

EDIT - The CPC's stance on niqabs and the barbaric practices tipline has backfired on them, according to these numbers, as people universally think more negatively of Harper after the tactics.
Click to expand...

This poll and some of the other polls that showed a 4%+ lead for the Liberals lately must be ringing warning bells at conservative headquarters now or will be soon because the Liberals are most likely in the lead in terms of potential seat count with a 4% or 5% lead.
 
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