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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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Wait, you can vote for any riding in Canada? I thought students had the choice between the riding of where they go to school or the riding they lived back home.
Nono, it's the riding you live in.
It's just saying that you don't have to go to Nova Scotia if you legally live there and are registered there to vote if you go to school here in BC.
I had to vote for my riding. I can't vote for Montreal or elsewhere
killer rin
Member
If you wrote in a name though, couldn't you have wrote in any name from any riding? or did the ballot have something like an anonymous ID on it which was associated with your home riding?
Oh OK, I get it. Thanks.
Each poll has a DRO nominated by the first-place party, and a poll clerk nominated by the second-place party; and all candidates are entitled to send scrutineers for the actual counting (which all the major parties generally do). I was a DRO in both the 2008 and 2011 elections in Charlottetown.
BigJonsson
Member
This
The candidates have eyeballs inside the polling stations to look out for any funny business
Nope, they checked my address and riding and told me to write a candidates name. (They also gave me a list for spelling purposes)
If I voted for someone outside that riding, it wouldn't have counted
And another conservative candidate says something controversial.This time it's on climate change.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...ther-climate-change-is-human-caused-1.3262393
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...ther-climate-change-is-human-caused-1.3262393
All we need is "the poor are lazy" and anti-abortion and we've got the GOP up in here
The conservatives can't stop saying controversial stuff now which is weird.
I guess they realised that the only people that care about those things are the people that aren't even voting for them.
ThreeHundredEight projections for comparison.Actual riding level polling in Ottawa-area:
If you're in Kanata/Barrhaven and planning on voting Green/NDP you might want to consider voting strategically for the Liberals.
Pontiac Con 28.3 / NDP 29.9 / Lib 30.6 / Blc 7.8 / Grn 2.5
Ottawa Centre Con 18.8 / NDP 43.1 / Lib 30.3 / Grn 5.8
Ottawa West - Nepean Con 29.7 / NDP 17.6 / Lib 47.3 / Grn 4.2
Kanata-Carlton Con 40.1 / NDP 13.0 / Lib 41.5 / Grn 5.4
Nepean Con 37.2 / NDP 14.8 / Lib 41.5 / Grn 4.7
In Pontiac ThreeHundredEight has Conservative support higher with Lib/NDP support lower. But other than that very close.
Buba Big Guns
Banned
Orleans? I think Liberals are going to take that seat by quite a bit.
Nepean is fucking close and you can tell by the lawn signs. Trudeau needs to come here and solidify that shit.
Nepean is fucking close and you can tell by the lawn signs. Trudeau needs to come here and solidify that shit.
Well then. I guess that Aussie twit they hired has to find a way to morph Harper into the "person I'd like to have a beer with" archetype that works so well in US politics.
I don't think that's possible with Harper, I can't see him as anything other than a cold-hearted evil villain robot.
Until the 2006 elections, Orléans was a Liberal stronghold. Andrew Leslie is one of Trudeau's star candidates so it no surprise that the riding is going to flip back.
(Orléans is also my riding).
Harper is one force lighting to the face away from looking like the Emperor
I'll have exams shortly after election day and probably lab reports....so I doubt I'll vote then. I guess I'll do it tomorrow. I think they have a booth there for people who live at school.
All those photos with kittens didn't help?
So there were advanced polling stations at my university today mostly for students to have easier access, and was surprised to learn from a friend that the line went so long that it took him 90 minutes to vote.
May not be the most ideal sample as a counter to young adult apathy, but looks like we're getting there at least.
May not be the most ideal sample as a counter to young adult apathy, but looks like we're getting there at least.
Yeah... I don't have time for that. If the line looks that long, I won't bother.
matthewwhatever
Member
So glad that my riding (OWN) seems to be going Liberal in a big way, though the fact I'm moving to Ottawa Centre a few days after the election tempers that happiness a little.
Nepean or Kanata going Liberal would be a massive embarrassment for the Conservatives. The quality of their candidates is pretty abysmal, but that hasn't stopped their candidates elsewhere. I wonder if the shenanigans around their nomination process in Nepean hurt them at all -- a friend of mine's brother-in-law is on their riding executive, and apparently they were really pissed off that their chosen candidate got upended by Wang (heh) and the busloads of people he brought in from his church.
And I love that Orleans is so obviously going Liberal they didn't even bother polling on it.
Voting Sunday -- can't wait! I think I've missed voting once since I turned 18, and even though that was a municipal election I still regret it.
I'm kind of skeptical that the Liberals have pulled ahead in Quebec, but at the same time, Leger is a pretty good pollster. I'd be interested in seeing the sub-regional breakdowns for these -- maybe they're just going to win massive majorities in all the Montreal & Gatineau-area seats? The G&M breakdown says that the NDP Is running second everywhere in the province: behind the Liberals in Montreal, behind the Conservatives in Quebec City, and behind the Bloc in rural areas. If that holds, they're in deep trouble (as is Canada, in the event that the Bloc takes enough seats to prevent the Liberal + NDP total from surpassing that of the Conservatives.
If the NDP don't have a turnaround in the next few weeks, I wonder if Mulcair sticks around? I generally think leaders should get two elections to prove themselves, but this has been a pretty abysmal campaign on his part. Is there anyone waiting in the wings to push him out? I still think Cullen would've been the better choice back in 2012, but his happy warrior persona works a lot less well against Trudeau than it does against Harper. Maybe a prairie populist, if there are any left?
Perfect Blue
Banned
I'll probably go vote tomorrow since I have nothing better to do. Live in a pretty contested riding (Brampton Centre) and will be voting Liberal.
I think it depends on what happens after the election. If the NDP and the Liberals plan to defeat Harper on a confidence motion, both Mulcair and Trudeau have to stay long enough to keep that situation stable. A new leader right away would just result in it falling apart.
I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP got a lot of seats in quebec via vote splitting and ended up in first place in Quebec on election day again.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Your future MP in Ottawa Center would be a good choice. Has his French improved at all from last time?
Honestly, I don't know if there's all that much obviously wrong with the campaign Mulcair has run -- with exception that it's just not connecting. He was pretty much unanimously acknowledged as a great opposition leader in Parliament (too bad most people don't pay attention to that stuff), and it's an entirely defensible choice to try to tamp down any charges of extremism that might be flung at the NDP by adopting a centrist platform. To the extent that any single issue has tripped them up, it's that niqab BS.
Well, perhaps there is one error (shared with the Tories): they were banking on Trudeau imploding, and he didn't.
The aforementioned decision to moderate the party's platform will probably be the source of recrimination post-election -- I imagine it's especially galling for many party stalwarts to see the NDP running on an economic platform that is arguably to the right of the Liberals. Like I said, it was far from a nonsensical choice for a party looking to close the deal with centrist voters, even if it seems ultimately to have opened up the terrain for them to be outflanked as the "change" candidate (but again, they were probably banking on Trudeau just not being a credible PM). But I expect there'll be anger at Mulcair over that if all this centrist pragmatism doesn't have a payoff, and that could be explosive in the right conditions.
I don't know if Mulcair resigning would be that big an impediment to taking Harper down, though. It's not like there's going to be any pro-cooperation-with-the-Tories constituency in the NDP, and a party in a leadership race basically has to keep Parliament running in the meantime anyway.
I always hum the Xmen cartoon from the 90's theme when I vote
I will be. Gotta vote early since I won't be able to on election day. Going to be working at one of the polling stations on election day.
Cullen is really good and I like him a lot. I heard him speak at an anti-Northern Gateway rally in Vancouver and he was fantastic. I think he'd do well as an NDP leader at some point.
That being said, you got to wonder if a westerner would be able to connect with Quebecers. I think this election campaign showed just how difficult it is to hold together a base in Quebec and support in the rest of the country, when views are often opposing. This has been a tough problem for all parties at one point in time. This time the NDP's turn.
I think the biggest takeaway of this election campaign, and the area where the NDP really screwed up, is that when a majority of the electorate say they want change, that means they want change right away. The NDP has promised change, but it is change that is very ambitious, and thus more difficult to achieve, and further away (eg. National Childcare). The Liberals have promised good changes that are not as ambitious, but are very easy to imagine being implementable in the near term. That message has gone over much better with Canadians, as I think most are clearly very over Harper and want changes and improvements sooner than later.
Buba Big Guns
Banned
I think angry Mulcair would have done much better, especially in the debates. There was a billion things to attack Harper on, and in the end Trudeau was the only one who showed emotion.
Hours Left
Member
I yell "CRY FOR THE MOON" when I jam my ballot into the box.
He even knows that which is why his latest ads he says this isn't a popularity contest and you're not voting for him, you're voting for the better economic plan. Skynet has become self aware.
dragonfart28
Banned
Lol
The Layton historical revisionism is a bit much here. He wasn't as revered as people make him out to be.
He only got this legacy because he died.
If you look at voters in 905 they didn't give a fuck about Layton and they still wouldn't today. We would have the same dynamic playing out there and the niqab issue would be the same in Quebec.
Impeccable
Member
I don't know where we would have been without his death but to claim he wasn't making something special happen is absolutely insane.
matthewwhatever
Member
I don't think so. How he managed to grow up in a political family in Ottawa and never learn French baffles me. Otherwise, he'd have been a shoo-in.
I disagree -- like Buba said, he wasn't nearly aggressive enough right out of the gate. Running a safe frontrunner campaign is fine if you really are a safe frontrunner, but they were never in that position. They were ahead in most polls, but it was usually only by a couple of points over the Conservatives. It felt to me like they were just taking for granted that they were the only alternative, and it backfired on them.
I don't disagree with any of this, and yet...
Not only that, they're also oddly obsessed with Trudeau's speaking fees. I think it would be a major mistake for them to let personal animosity get in the way of cooperating to get rid of Harper, but the way he's ramping up the rhetoric makes me wonder how likely that is.
Interesting new poll from Mainstreet. Just days after finding the Conservatives back in majority range...
It has the Liberals leading by 7 in Ontario over the Conservatives, and in Quebec, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 27, with the NDP behind at 25.
No, he's right. He badly lost three elections. People didn't saw anything special in him or his policies/politics. Then he finished 2nd in his fourth and last election only because Quebec suddenly fell in love with him. But the rest of the country didn't.
matthewwhatever
Member
I don't know I'd go this far. Even if you exclude Quebec, he still would've led the party to a historic high in terms of seats. I think a lot of people are overstating his popularity, but saying he didn't do anything to significantly grow the party is just as wrong.
Yeah, I will go later.
Lol that's baloney. You can't say he badly lost three elections when he started with a party that was barely hanging onto 13 seats. In his first election he pulled an extra million votes for a party that was in danger of disintegrating.
Public opinion doesn't shift overnight. The NDP was always a long term strategy and the fact that those 13
seats went up every single election that Layton was at the helm is three WINS for the NDP.
If Elizabeth May's Green Party came out of this election with 10 seats, we'd be calling her a genius.
Honestly the media narrative of "Oh Layton lost again Har har" was really ridiculous considering he gained votes and seats every election he fought and insisted on competing everywhere in the country not just the few areas of traditional NDP strength.
He was also always a constructive force IN parliament. I'll say again that the Martin-Layton budget is the best budget this country has seen for going on two decades now.
He was also always a constructive force IN parliament. I'll say again that the Martin-Layton budget is the best budget this country has seen for going on two decades now.
The idea of "losing" an election based on results and not the change in results is such an American way of looking at things. Every seat is important. If you lose seats, you've lost the election. If you win seats, you've succeeded.
Forming a government is the goal, obviously, but it's not the only goal.
Forming a government is the goal, obviously, but it's not the only goal.
Zombie James
Banned
http://www.michaelgeist.ca/2015/10/...ts-to-longer-term-urge-isps-to-block-content/
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Thank fuck this is happening during an election.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Thank fuck this is happening during an election.
Regional politics have always been a problem in Canada. It's really only the NDP and Green who are truly national parties. Obviously Green isn't going anywhere but the failure of the NDP is disappointing. Canada needs to stop living in the past.
The Liberals are not a national party. They have never had full support from the west. They never have and never will. The Liberals have always been Ontario first. Even when they've had a french leader, it's always been Ontario first. Quebec sees this now.
The Conservatives are more of a national party than the Liberals. They've always had significant support in Ontario as well as the west. It was Reform who were preferential to the west and the current Conservatives still carry that torch.
So if Canada wants to have a party that represents the entire country, it should have been the NDP. Seems unlikely it's going to happen now with this leader but they need to have a good showing to keep that hope alive for the future. If Canada is going to unite under one party without regional interests, it's sure as hell isn't going to happen with the Conservatives or Liberals.
The Liberals are not a national party. They have never had full support from the west. They never have and never will. The Liberals have always been Ontario first. Even when they've had a french leader, it's always been Ontario first. Quebec sees this now.
The Conservatives are more of a national party than the Liberals. They've always had significant support in Ontario as well as the west. It was Reform who were preferential to the west and the current Conservatives still carry that torch.
So if Canada wants to have a party that represents the entire country, it should have been the NDP. Seems unlikely it's going to happen now with this leader but they need to have a good showing to keep that hope alive for the future. If Canada is going to unite under one party without regional interests, it's sure as hell isn't going to happen with the Conservatives or Liberals.
The incredibly odd narrative in Canadian politics is that the only way to 'win' is to win a majority. It speaks to how winning a fake majority and then having full power for four years is the only thing big parties lust after and the media follows along with that. It's such an ugly and distorted way of doing politics. There's no incentive to cooperate just hold fire until the opposition is splintered and then force an election. That's the behaviour that disporoprtional winner take all systems like FPTP and AV require. It's how Chretien won, it's how Harper wins.
Parch: The NDP wasn't a truly national party until Layton won in Quebec and Notley won in Alberta and they seem to have squandered the opportunity to conslidate that. The Libs and Cons have a much greater claim to being not regional concern. I agree with you though that the Greens are the only truly national party. Even support throughout the nation. They really need to get the dozen or so seats that they and their voters deserve.
Parch: The NDP wasn't a truly national party until Layton won in Quebec and Notley won in Alberta and they seem to have squandered the opportunity to conslidate that. The Libs and Cons have a much greater claim to being not regional concern. I agree with you though that the Greens are the only truly national party. Even support throughout the nation. They really need to get the dozen or so seats that they and their voters deserve.
TheRealTalker
Banned
So is the advance polling stations the same station on our voting cards?
What's with this 'NDP were the chosen ones' narrative you got going on?
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