Support NeoGAF

[ubercheez]

In 2084, will there be enough PS4s and Xbones for all 7 billion+ people in the world?

13.5 million * 1.17^70 = 800 billion PS4s sold in 2084
7.2 million * 1.25^70 = 44 trillion Xbones sold in 2084

Everything was Xbones
Cities made of Xbones
Streets paved with Xbones
Please report to harvesting facility for 2085 Xbone production materials

 

[twobear]

You keep bumbling this, but the implication of the criticism is that the possibility of the Xbox selling more is *not* as remote as the article implies, actually.

But, again, you can't see this unless you realize that it's nonsense inference.

The possibility of Xbone outselling the PS4 is close to zero.

 

[maltrain]

Arstechnica is just a joke...

 

[Captain Zyrain]

2038:

By 2040, just Xbox Ones outnumber humans (PS4s take until 2045 to reach this landmark). By 2050 there are over ten consoles for each human (and 80% of them are Xbox Ones).

Everything was ONE.

 

[Chobel]

 

[Rubezh]

There will eventually be more PS4s and Xbox Ones than atoms in the universe.

 

[Curufinwe]

How can someone willingly attach their name to something this ridiculous?

 

[pooptest]

So what was the actual point of this article?

I understand he wants to show off his (laughable) statistics skills, but I don't actually see the point of creating the article in the first place. Click bait?

 

[texore]

Where's Wii U? Passing the Dreamcast was huge momentum builder.

 

[DrkSage]

You spin me right round, baby
Right round like a record, baby
Right round round round

 

[ps3ud0]

I just don't understand how people can think that the prose accompanying the graphs means that the initial premise and the logic they use leads to a useful conclusion through proof by contradiction

Its initial premise is so absurd that everything after it is a waste of time exploring

What is the definitive music I should be listening to accompany this? I am old and still think nero is current.

Prodigy - Smack my bitch up

ps3ud0 8)

 

[twobear]

I just don't understand how people can think that the prose accompanying the graphs means that the initial premise and the logic they use leads to a useful conclusion through proof by contradiction

Its initial premise is so absurd that everything after it is a waste of time exploring

ps3ud0 8)

it's not a proof by contradiction

 

[Steel]

You know that graph is actually possible. I mean, the PS4 dropped its price $50. At this rate, and given increasing discount rates of course, the PS4 could reasonably be sold for $50 a console before 2024, and Microsoft will have discounted the Xbox One so much that they'll actually be paying us to pick one up. Really.

 

[RespectThySole]

Probably the worst article I've ever seen. This is pure comedy.

 

[jroc74]

Where's Wii U? Passing the Dreamcast was huge momentum builder.

This is the real eye opener.

You spin me right round, baby
Right round like a record, baby
Right round round round

Is it sad I know the actual tune to this...also

/dead

 

[IncognitoPanda]

Anyone who is honest with themselves can clearly see that PS4 will lead this gen. They've got the sales and the rep.

On a side note, I wonder what could have been for MS, and what will happen next gen cycle.
The Xbox brand got severely damaged.

 

[Blobbers]

He should've just said "Xbox One will never overtake PS4" and ended it. It would've been more useful than a nonsense article that isn't grounded in reality.

Since the other usual extrapolation images have already been posted:

Ayy

 

[EoinOL]

So what was the actual point of this article?

I understand he wants to show off his (laughable) statistics skills, but I don't actually see the point of creating the article in the first place. Click bait?

Probably Orland was told to write a one-Ars-page-length article on the recently released quarterly results from the console manufacturers.

"Everything is like it was before and Sony are still selling more just as they have been for two years and are likely to for the rest of this generation" isn't really a great article so it looks like he's tried to put some kind of statistic spin on it, realised that all he had to go on was annual growth, and decided to run with that, eventually to the point where he had to add the disclaimer that what he was writing was nonsense.

 

[farisr]

If these trends continue... ayyyyyyyyyyy

I think me and my brother quote this line at least once a month.

 

[Bastables]

Probably Orland was told to write a one-Ars-page-length article on the recently released quarterly results from the console manufacturers.

"Everything is like it was before and Sony are still selling more just as they have been for two years and are likely to for the rest of this generation" isn't really a great article so it looks like he's tried to put some kind of statistic spin on it, realised that all he had to go on was annual growth, and decided to run with that, eventually to the point where he had to add the disclaimer that what he was writing was nonsense.

This story ignores his history of fluffing Microsoft figures.

 

[ps3ud0]

it's not a proof by contradiction

Actually yeah, doesn't actually appear to be any attempt in using logic. Best I can say is rubbish in, rubbish out

ps3ud0 8)

 

[Cidd]

That 1% of China doing work I see.

 

[ForsakenLotus]

I don't understand how the numbers suggest a fairly similar gap until 2021, in which case Microsoft has a major boost to overtake it. How does that math work exactly?

 

[EventHorizon]

So what was the actual point of this article?

I understand he wants to show off his (laughable) statistics skills, but I don't actually see the point of creating the article in the first place. Click bait?

The point he was trying to make was that even though the XB1 has made up some ground, given the most favorable possible scenario it still could not overtake the PS4 in any realistic timeframe. The problem is that the most favorable possible scenario is so ridiculous that all analysis should have stopped at that point. It's like estimating my chances of sleeping with Jennifer Aniston by first assuming that I become a Hollywood heartthrob and then noting that because she is married I'd still be out of luck. Using any more brain cells on that analysis after assuming I become a Hollywood heartthrob is an insult to the universe.

 

[Window]

Arstechnica is just a joke...

Their PC hardware articles are pretty good (at least the few I've read).

 

[twobear]

Actually yeah, doesn't actually appear to be any attempt in using logic. Best I can say is rubbish in, rubbish out

ps3ud0 8)

Well it's a logically valid premise;

'IF the Xbox sales growth continues at the present rate, THEN it will take until 2024 for the Xbox to surpass PS4 sales'.

False premises don't mean squat for logical validity.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

I'm confused, is he projecting sales for up to the year 2024? And that in the year 2024, Xb1 will surpass PS4?

The fuck is going on?

 

[Shabad]

That 1% of China doing work I see.

This actually would make more sense that what I read in that "article".

A bunch of nonsense, to prove nothing, ... is he trying to be a comedian or something ?

 

[Bastables]

I just don't understand how people can think that the prose accompanying the graphs means that the initial premise and the logic they use leads to a useful conclusion through proof by contradiction

Its initial premise is so absurd that everything after it is a waste of time exploring

Prodigy - Smack my bitch up

ps3ud0 8)

Firestarter

 

[GeoramA]

They can't seriously be this out of touch.

Then again I said the same thing about Microsoft in 2013.

 

[Chobel]

OK, I read the article and not just the graph, and I have to say I agree with godelsmetric. His intention here is to show that even with bad premises in the article, XBO won't catch up to PS4 until its way too late (2024), in other word it will never outsell PS4.

 

[twobear]

I'm confused, is he projecting sales for up to the year 2024? And that in the year 2024, Xb1 will surpass PS4?

The fuck is going on?

No. He's saying it's implausible to think that the Xbone will ever overtake the PS4.

 

[koryuken]

I'm confused, is he projecting sales for up to the year 2024? And that in the year 2024, Xb1 will surpass PS4?

The fuck is going on?

 

[EoinOL]

I don't understand how the numbers suggest a fairly similar gap until 2021, in which case Microsoft has a major boost to overtake it. How does that math work exactly?

It doesn't. What the graph is doing is assuming that the PS4 has 17% annual growth each year (indefinitely) and the Xbox One has 25% annual growth each year. The PS4's higher base means that growth is similar for the first part of the chart, but once the numbers start getting larger the Xbox One's higher growth starts becoming more obvious.

(By Orland's standards this is one of the times when it's actually easy enough to see what weird, Xbox-favouring assumptions or modifications have been made)

 

[Window]

I'm confused, is he projecting sales for up to the year 2024? And that in the year 2024, Xb1 will surpass PS4?

The fuck is going on?

Projecting annual sales. Based on current growth rates (which are as the author admits probably an inaccurate indication for the next 10 years) where the Xbox1 actually has higher growth, it would still take 9 years before it would surpass PS4 sales annually (not cumulative). In other words despite X1's superior sales growth %, it's unlikely to ever match the PS4. Is that useful information? I don't know.

 

[DieH@rd]

I'm confused, is he projecting sales for up to the year 2024? And that in the year 2024, Xb1 will surpass PS4?

The fuck is going on?

It's Kyle Orland. That should tell you enough.

 

[Apt101]

What did I just read?

I'm going to start using fabricated statistical analyses like this to explain to my boss that although I am not completing projects on time, by 2024 I will have completed more projects than my coworkers who have completed twice as many projects as me. Maybe I'll use colorful construction paper and crayons.

 

[AnthonypUK]

We don't even know the Xboxes current sales, let alone growth, so i'm not sure how he can even make projections.

 

[rpg_fan]

If nothing else, I got a nice laugh from this thread. I thank them, and all of you for that.

 

[hesido]

Thread is golden. Not a polygon pie chart golden, but golden.

Good job GAF, with all the extra charts provided

 

[hawk2025]

OK, I read the article and not just the graph, and I have to say I agree with godelsmetric. His intention here is to show that even with bad premises in the article, XBO won't catch up to PS4 until its too (2024), in other word it will never outsell PS4.

But the premises aren't just bad because they overstate the xbox trajectory. They are also bad by keeping the PS4 growth constant -- it doesn't serve as a benchmark best case scenario, because it also assumes completely unrealistically large PS4 sales.

 

[Maintenance]

I'm still laughing at 750 million consoles sold.

If it happens though I'll gladly eat crow because the industry will be fucking huge and that's good.

The thread is pure gold, keep the charts and graphs coming.

 

[ForsakenLotus]

It doesn't. What the graph is doing is assuming that the PS4 has 17% annual growth each year (indefinitely) and the Xbox One has 25% annual growth each year. The PS4's higher base means that growth is similar for the first part of the chart, but once the numbers start getting larger the Xbox One's higher growth starts becoming more obvious.

(By Orland's standards this is one of the times when it's actually easy enough to see what weird, Xbox-favouring assumptions or modifications have been made)

I understand the logic behind Xbox slowly catching up to the PS4, but the graph doesn't really show that. It seems like the Xbox might slightly be catching up, but then there is a huge spike after 2021. I'm not the best at math, but I don't see how an 8% growth on a chart looks like that.

Granted these charts and this article is ridiculous, I'm just trying to figure out what he was even thinking.

 

[Freeman]

MS PR should hire this guy, he would fit right in. Their NPD PR statements would be just marvelous with this levels of spin added to them.

 

[UberTag]

You know, I haven't started a gaming blog or website because I don't see myself as a good enough journalist or writer but articles like this set the standard pretty low.

Maybe I can make it.

Just think. Create a site with editorial commentary as ambitious and well-researched as this one and you too can get gifted E3 attendee credentials each and every year.

 

[juicyfruitas]

 

[EventHorizon]

Confession: Even though the analysis in the article was a bit silly, it is only overkill and not really out of bounds. I'm commenting against it because it was a bit head scratching when I first saw the graphs, but mostly because it is funny to do so.

 

[twobear]

I'm still laughing at 750 million consoles sold.

You're supposed to laugh, in a sense. It's showing the impossibility of the Xbone overtaking the PS4.

 

[Chobel]

But the premises aren't just bad because they overstate the xbox trajectory. They are also bad by keeping the PS4 growth constant -- it doesn't serve as a benchmark best case scenario, because it also assumes completely unrealisticly large PS4 sales.

Fair point.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Who reads this garbage. Really poor excuse for an article.