(Arstechnica) Analysis: Sony continues to widen its console sales lead over Microsoft
- Thread starter Zombie James
- Start date
Palette Swap
Member
Perfect. <32038:
By 2040, just Xbox Ones outnumber humans (PS4s take until 2045 to reach this landmark). By 2050 there are over ten consoles for each human (and 80% of them are Xbox Ones).
Collateral22
Member
Where do I apply to write about common sense for money?
You'll starve to death.
This assumes his errors are due to mere incompetence.
Can we have a basic maths requirement for game journalists? Like 5th grade level?
Hahaha! Same writer too.
How do these articles get by the editor?
edit: Kyle Orland is the senior gaming editor. Well then.
omg. This graph. I can't.
Consumer
Member
Pretty much these. What the fuck?
They're extrapolating in the simplest way possible.
Devilgunman
Member
So they made this stupid graph then pointed out later that it is stupid and console sales don't work this way. What's the point of this article again?
Why does Ars keep having this guy write these types of articles? He sucks at it.
I mean the first time, that's fine, maybe it was a mistake or he was just having a brain fart or something. But when you've proven you just do not have the head for these kinds of analytical types of articles isn't it maybe time to give it to another guy who has maybe more of an analytical mind?
I mean the first time, that's fine, maybe it was a mistake or he was just having a brain fart or something. But when you've proven you just do not have the head for these kinds of analytical types of articles isn't it maybe time to give it to another guy who has maybe more of an analytical mind?
Well, assuming a normal distribution, for every good analysis, there should be a bad one.
2038:
By 2040, just Xbox Ones outnumber humans (PS4s take until 2045 to reach this landmark). By 2050 there are over ten consoles for each human (and 80% of them are Xbox Ones).
The ONE to rule them all
FF Seraphim
Member
Where do I sign up to make up bullshit graphs, use faulty math, and get paid for it?! I want to know how the hell did this get through as something deemed fit to publish?
Read the last line of his. It's essentially a plaintive cry to Microsoft for help as even with his fabulist skills he can't even make Xbox one catch up unless 2024.
Xbox Division Chief Phil Spencer might say that Microsoft isn't that concerned with the Xbox One's relative market share, but for anyone who is, the road ahead continues to look difficult.
Orthogonal
Member
Kyle Orland must have come across some dusty old notes on Video Game statistics left behind by Kuchera.
*Shines Detective-GAF beacon*
Once again I ask, is this the same Kyle who used to post on gaf like crazy with fanboi BS at the beginning of this gen? Dude had a hard on for anything and everything MS related.
Wut? .....
May this article then serve as a benchmark for insane game industry analysis.
QuantumZebra
Member
I think everyone understood the premise - they are just criticizing the point of the article.
That being - why would anyone go into an analysis of made up numbers projected in unrealistic conditions over a longer period of life than the product being analyzed?
It ... there is no sense to it at all.
The point of the article looks to be saying it would take the XB1 maintaining current YOY sales till 2024 to top PS4 - but who gives a shit? How is this relevant? Even if it was relevant, the methodology used doesn't hold water at all.
Bolivar687
Banned
He's arguing that, if you really look at it, Xbox somehow actually had a better year than PlayStation. He wanted to make sure you see it first before going on to acknowledge it that won't be enough to close the gap.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
You know how Sony and their fans got out of this same hole that Krazy Ken had dug themselves into last generation? Reality checks. It keeps you from keepin' on diggin' deeper.
RROD?
RROD?
It says Mr. Orland is a comp-sci major too.
I was EECS, but I remember taking A WHOLE LOT of math classes. What the heck happened?
Bingo bongo.
This is not analysis. All those hundreds or thousands of words could have been put to better use doing real analysis.
I was EECS, but I remember taking A WHOLE LOT of math classes. What the heck happened?
Bingo bongo.
This is not analysis. All those hundreds or thousands of words could have been put to better use doing real analysis.
QuantumZebra
Member
2038:
By 2040, just Xbox Ones outnumber humans (PS4s take until 2045 to reach this landmark). By 2050 there are over ten consoles for each human (and 80% of them are Xbox Ones).
Katana_Strikes
Member
Holy shit how did I miss this thread. I'm speechless here over this analysis and those graphs. Speechless because my mouth is wide open laughing my fricken socks off. Hahaha!
Comp -sci major at which university though?
Says it right there at the bottom of the article.
Degrees in journalism and computer science at the University of Maryland.
Good university so I don't know why he keeps writing this junk. I feel like you don't finish a comp-sci degree without being pretty damn good at analytical thinking.
I'm going to chalk it up to needing to produce something for quick clicks.
To make the point that the Xbone can't catch up to the PS4 even given the implausible claim that its sales growth continues to outpace the PS4.
Geez some guys here are dumb.
The whole point of the article is that even assuming absolute best case scenario for Xbox, it isn't gonna catch up. Which is, outside some major black swan, a fair assessment. The graphs are meant to show how even under extreme circumstances the gap won't be closed.
Anyone who reads this as "by 2024 XBO will be on top" has severe reading comprehension issues and should feel bad.
The whole point of the article is that even assuming absolute best case scenario for Xbox, it isn't gonna catch up. Which is, outside some major black swan, a fair assessment. The graphs are meant to show how even under extreme circumstances the gap won't be closed.
Anyone who reads this as "by 2024 XBO will be on top" has severe reading comprehension issues and should feel bad.
Turin Turambar
Member
If these trends continue... ayyyyyyyyyyy
Yep. The fucking Simpsons make a joke about it, that's how stupid it is. First mistake is to put predictions until 2024 (!) and second mistake is to apply the current trends directly to those years that are too much into the future, without thinking that as you get further from the present, the actual trends are less and less relevant.
OfTheOverflow
Member
2024? lmao, I think we're being had, and if not, this is just sad.
Whatever was the author's ambition, there graphs make mathematically no sense. They are laughable, literally.
Cymbal Head
Banned
This assumes people bothered to read the article accompanying the graphics.
I think most people get what he's trying to do.
What is dumb though is how unnecessary this article is. He's locked onto one piece of actual data the percentage increase instead of number sold and then concocted an entire article with a ridiculous hypothetical. That's just about the clumsiest way of getting the point across that Xbox One won't catch the PS4 this generation.
Why not try to find two months where the Ouya sold 1 unit and then the next month it sold 5 units and extrapolate from there. X months from now at 500% growth month over month Ouya will outsell the PS4!*
*Doesn't work like that, but you get my point right??
qa_engineer
Member
Slow day in video game news,gotta make it look like you're actually working when the boss is around.
Turin Turambar
Member
Yes, the author says the reasoning is absurd...
but then, why is he doing an article based on absurd reasoning? Does he have a lot of free time on his hands?
Clicks.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/...-widen-its-console-sales-lead-over-microsoft/
There are some interesting graphs from Ars, like always:
Lock it up if old.
I hope I'm reading this wrong, but is this trying to say that PS4 and Xbone sales will be 65 million and 70 million respectively in 2024? And the LTD will be 350+ Million and 300 million respectively?
Yeah...
Dude took all this time making graphs based on impossibilities so he could convey to you how impossible it would be for the Xbox to overtake the PS4 at the current rate.
In the rest of the sane world, analysts usually make graphs in an attempt to prognosticate actual outcomes using many, many data points and attempting to find patterns and trends from them. While they may not be proven to be accurate when the future becomes the present, at least they try to offer a reasoned, logical scenario of many possible scenarios.
Making a graph you know is nonsense, based off of nonsense is another approach I guess...
Why not do an actual analysis then? End result would be the same.
Boogalogist
Member
LOL...I just got my dose of daily laughter from this.
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