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[soundscream]

Well, follow me along with this (and I appreciate any error corrections, just doing this fairly quickly).

Going to make some assumptions but I'll mark them clearly.

Halo 3 did 3.3 million first month in the US. 300k was Legendary edition. I'll assume that the limited edition also sold 300k.

Breakdown: 2.7 million regular, 300k limited, 300k legendary. That totals out to about $222 million in the US.

Halo 3 did 370k in the UK. I'll just pretend that all of those were regular copies. That's about another $22 million bringing the total up to $244 million.

Halo 3 did around 50k in Japan. That's 3 million, bringing it up to $247 million.

So, only including three markets, and assuming that the legendary and limited edition were only sold in the US, we come to 247 million. I don't know. I can easily see $300 million being software only unless I messed up somewhere.

Why are you using the monthly total when the press release was only for week one?

Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) said on Thursday that its "Halo 3" video game racked up worldwide sales of $300 million in its first week, making it one of the year's best sellers and helping to more than double sales of its Xbox 360 console.

 

[Primethius]

Why are you using the monthly toatal when the press release was only for week one?

Because Halo 3 launched on September 25 so the monthly total is the week.

Edit: And yea, I'm not entirely sure what the PR includes when they mention "sales generated." I assumed it was the full price, but my apologies if not.

Edit: Whoops, I was wrong about the week thing. I just checked and the NPD lasted into October 6th, which was two weeks. So my number for Halo 3 in the US is wrong, however, if my calculations are correct for revenue generated, I think my point still stands. If not, my point is moot.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

No, I am not. Read again.

Yes you are .
I think you need to read up on how this works .

 

[Poimandres]

So you're saying Microsoft would report revenue that is not theirs, in a public statement that shareholders would read?
K

All the press release says is $400 million dollars in global sales so... yes?

 

[SteamyPunk]

Well there's the retailer cut and logistics, and third party manufacturer for the helmet.
So assuming they get 45/55/90 return on each, 2.7mil/300k/300k makes about 165 million revenue. The remaining 135 million for hardware?

Don't you also need to figure out sold-in/sold-through revenue? Is 2.7 million the number sold to consumers or stores? Perhaps the $300 million is the worth of all the merchandise purchased by stores. (this could differ wildly from the amount of revenue generated in the first week by consumers)

 

[Ricky_R]

Well there's the retailer cut and logistics, and third party manufacturer for the helmet.
So assuming they get 45/55/90 return on each, 2.7mil/300k/300k makes about 165 million revenue. The remaining 155 million for hardware?

If the wording was indeed "generated", then it had to be gross. Anyway, PR is always about putting everything in the best light possible, so I'm sure they usually don't eliminate any costs, fees, etc.

It's revenue after all.

 

[igordennis]

So you're saying Microsoft would report revenue that is not theirs, in a public statement that shareholders would read?
K

Uhhh do you know how revenue and companies work? If they report U$500 million revenue of (only) software sold, that would be $500mi/$60 copies they shipped to stores. Thats how its always been.

 

[RE_Player]

I love people drive by posting saying anyone who is dismissing these numbers is a hater or something. People are genuinely curious about how many copies Halo 5 moved. No one is saying it is not going to be successful, it will probably end up being the most successful Xbox One game until Gears 4, people just want to know the obvious decline and how or if it is that severe. It's the same with Call of Duty. No one in there right mind thinks Call of Duty is going to flop for Activision, we are just curious if there is a decline year over year.

 

[BeforeU]

This game will have legs

 

[SRTtoZ]

Yikes that PR. The biggest launch? OK what does that mean? They had a big launch party? What does biggest mean? They would have said best selling surely? And including hardware numbers in the 400m doesn't really tell us anything. Good spin though.

 

[igordennis]

I love people drive by posting saying anyone who is dismissing these numbers is a hater or something. People are genuinely curious about how many copies Halo 5 moved. No one is saying it is not going to be successful, it will probably end up being the most successful Xbox One game until Gears 4, people just want to know the obvious decline and how or if it is that severe. It's the same with Call of Duty. No one in there right mind thinks Call of Duty is going to flop for Activision, we are just curious if there is a decline year over year.

Hater.

Spoiler

/s

 

[etta]

Where's the Halo 3 PR that says "generated"?
And where's the Halo 5 PR that says "generated"?

If the wording was indeed "generated", then it had to be gross. Anyway, PR is always about putting everything in the best light possible, so I'm sure they usually don't eliminate any costs, fees, etc.

It's revenue after all.

But those cuts are dealt at the time and point of sale. It's not like Microsoft receives ALL of the revenue from Halo 3, then starts sending cheques to retailers and manufactures for 15$ x #units...etc.
They never get to see the full $60, why would they report it on their side, it would be double counting.

Regardless, revenue means total.

Of course, but are is MS reporting Total Revenue or Total Microsoft Revenue (ie. their revenue)?

 

[JaggedSac]

The X360 had about 13 million consoles sold in September 2007 (Sep 2007 is when the Wii passed it, and the Wii had 13.17 million consoles in September 2007). The xbox did sell 528k units of X360s in that month (people buying X360s for Halo 3). Apparently Halo sold 3.3 million copies in the first two weeks in the US, so let's roughly estimate that they sold 4 million worldwide through September with an install base of 13.7 million. (End of november MS would say they sold 5 million units worldwide for Halo 3).

So, 4 million copies sold out of 13.7 million copies - pre Worldwide Economic Recession

At the end of 2014; MS had 10 million units worldwide. Per Ars Technica - you're looking at 15 million X1s worldwide. So...if you factor in a rough 10% decrease in median household income between 2007 and 2013 (US)..Halo 4 should be looking at 3.5 to 4 million copies sold to keep up with Halo 3's numbers (trying to generally account for the economic changes since then) as well as competing games (CoD + Fallout 4 + Tomb Raider + Battlefront).

Super interesting note: the numbers MS has used for Halo 3 and 4 implies have ALWAYS included hardware - they just didn't note it separately. MS said for Halo 3 that it racked up worldwide sales of 300 million USD its first week (9-25-2007 to 10-1-2007) - but had sold 5 million copies world wide by November 30, 2007. Those numbers don't seem to match up if they are just games, do they?

I kind of think they've always been including the bundles in that "revenue grossed" bit - because they're comparing it to movies and book releases.



Based on the reported numbers for Halo 3 at launch, it seems unlikely it only included software. The hard worldwide numbers we got for Halo 3 launch were 5 million copies worldwide sold between 9/25 and 11/30 (2 months) - but 300 million dollars in the first week alone. If you wanted to establish a trendline, MS announced that Halo 3 had sold 8.1 million copies by Jan 3 2008. So in the month of December, it sold 3.1 million copies. So...even if you say 80% of the 5 million copies (4 million) were sold in the first week; you are looking at an average expenditure of $75 for each copy of what was a 59.99 game IIRC? That seems high, and I don't think people bought that many limited editions.

Let's go deeper.

 

[CLEEK]

So you're saying Microsoft would report revenue that is not theirs, in a public statement that shareholders would read?

Of course they would, as would any publisher.

It's how the film industry works with box office. They don't factor out each individual cinema's cut etc, just report on the gross revenue.

 

[Ricky_R]

Where's the Halo 3 PR that says "generated"?
And where's the Halo 5 PR that says "generated"?

Regardless, revenue means total.

 

[GnawtyDog]

This thread.. Look it is obvious PR. If it had done better than its predecessors sales wise they would have clearly mentioned units sold. This is not to say the game has not done well. It very well could have.

It's not a matter of "could have". The game has done well period. Obviously what people want to know is how big the decline is from previous releases in terms of units sold, including units in bundles. Given the nature and importance of the IP performance in the industry, specially for MS, raw numbers can't be brushed aside with best-in class PR. NPD shall settle most of it.

 

[Shenmue]

So you're saying Microsoft would report revenue that is not theirs, in a public statement that shareholders would read?
K

No, I am not. Read again.

Well let's assume what you are proposing is accurate. If they only report their cut after all the middlemen take their cut (I've seen figures like 30-60% for what a publisher ultimately sees on the sale of a game) as revenue. What would they consider profit for Halo 5? Are they really going to be counting in all the R&D, operating costs and whatnot that went into creating Halo 5? Somehow I doubt it.

If they did it that way, none of Halo 5's proceeds would count as profit until they'd recouped all of those costs.

Also you have to consider that a figure they just put in some PR statement is not likely to be what they actually report when it comes to taxes and P&Ls.

 

[Primethius]

The "generated" I saw in the Gamespot link but that's the 170 million figure: http://www.gamespot.com/articles/halo-3s-first-day-us-haul-170-million/1100-6179914/

The $300 million PR mentions the following: "Microsoft Corp. today announced that "Halo 3" has officially become a global phenomenon, garnering more than $300 million in sales in the first week alone. "

Again, I was operating under the assumption that sales totals like this were always reported in full because as someone mentioned, that's how it is in the movie industry.

Edit: Doubly so because the PR was often used to compare to movie box office openings.

 

[Guymelef]

Someone is trying too hard...

 

[etta]

Well let's assume what you are proposing is accurate. If they only report their cut after all the middlemen take their cut (I've seen figures like 30-60% for what a publisher ultimately sees on the sale of a game) as revenue. What would they consider profit for Halo 5? Are they really going to be counting in all the R&D, operating costs and whatnot that went into creating Halo 5? Somehow I doubt it.

If they did it that way, none of Halo 5's proceeds would count as profit until they'd recouped all of those costs.

The discussion isn't about the split on revenue once in Microsoft's pocket, it's about how much goes into Microsoft's pocket for the sale of one game from retailer to consumer.

The "generated" I saw in the Gamespot link but that's the 170 million figure: http://www.gamespot.com/articles/halo-3s-first-day-us-haul-170-million/1100-6179914/

The $300 million PR mentions the following: "Microsoft Corp. today announced that "Halo 3" has officially become a global phenomenon, garnering more than $300 million in sales in the first week alone. "

Again, I was operating under the assumption that sales totals like this were always reported in full because as someone mentioned, that's how it is in the movie industry.

Edit: Doubly so because the PR was often used to compare to movie box office openings.

Okay, I see.
So there's still $50 million left over from your calculations, then. That's no rounding error, either. So is that the hardware money?

 

[Cybit]

Let's go deeper.

Wish I could. Video game companies are notorious in the last few years for not discussing actual sales numbers until quarterly meetings - and then they just tend to talk about the total quarter's sales as opposed to how it broke down over time. But the press releases come out for different time periods - meaning you are stuck inferring and trying to (badly) trend backwards in many cases. Ask Jason about destiny sales numbers, lol.

Halo 5 selling more than halo 4 in raw unit sales would be surprising due to install base difference sizes, and previous halos had the perk of being pre recession. Plus - if halo 3 is any indication, December might sell a crap ton of copies (3 of 8 million copies of halo 3 were sold in December 2007 alone). I'd have expected somewhere between a halo 2 and halo 3 level number of sales tbh. I'd be interested in seeing how halo 3 compares to a halo 6 launch in the future.

 

[John Cowheel]

This game will have legs

Will it? Once Call of Duty and Battlefront come out, it's finished this year.

 

[Primethius]

Okay, I see.

So there's still $50 million left over from your calculations, then. That's no rounding error, either. So is that the hardware money?

I only used actual data from the US/UK/Japan and assumed that the limited and legendary editions were only sold in the US.

Factoring in the rest of Europe (and the world) and adding in sales data for potential sales of limited/legendary editions there, I can easily see $300 million being software only.

 

[Cybit]

It's not a matter of "could have". The game has done well period. Obviously what people want to know is how big the decline is from previous releases in terms of units sold, including units in bundles. Given the nature and importance of the IP performance in the industry, specially for MS, raw numbers can't be brushed aside with best-in class PR. NPD shall settle most of it.

The MS report out for 4Q sales will be the settling scorecard - as they will get Christmas purchases and digital copies in that.

 

[BeforeU]

Will it? Once Call of Duty and Battlefront come out, it's finished this year.

and what makes you say this?

I am basing it based on how much people are enjoying Halo MP after such a long time and all DLC is free. New mode and maps will be added later.

 

[JaggedSac]

Will it? Once Call of Duty and Battlefront come out, it's finished this year.

Yep, Halo is dad

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Okay, I see.

So there's still $50 million left over from your calculations, then. That's no rounding error, either. So is that the hardware money?

That comes from sales from the rest of the world and exchange rates.
Don't forget the numbers he gave was numbers we had access to and 3 markets .
Unless you think Halo 3 did not sell any copies any where else .

 

[Shenmue]

The discussion isn't about the split on revenue once in Microsoft's pocket, it's about how much goes into Microsoft's pocket for the sale of one game from retailer to consumer.

I don't think you understood me. I know you are trying to say that what MS reports as revenue is probably what they, in actuality, see (meaning whatever the retailers pays MS minus whatever other costs). As opposed to taking revenue to mean the $60 each copy took in at launch.

What I'm saying is if they really only reported that as revenue (say $40 a copy on a full price sale), then what would they count as profit then? Are they going to really count every cent that went into developing the game, marketing, etc. etc. for the game to deduct from your definition of revenue to arrive at the profit number?

 

[Ricky_R]

That comes from sales from the rest of the world and exchange rates .
Don't forget the numbers he gave was numbers we had access to and 3 markets .
Unless you think Halo 3 did not sell any copies any where else .

It depends. Where they considered 2nd and 3rd tier back then?

 

[Primethius]

It depends. Where they considered 2nd and 3rd tier back then?

Oh you.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Will it? Once Call of Duty and Battlefront come out, it's finished this year.

Everything I've heard about Battlefront points toward it being a cynical cash grab with no legs.

 

[Granadier]

 

[DarthWalden]

So what's the consensus here? Is this a great launch?

 

[johnnydrama]

So what's the consensus here? Is this a great launch?

I don't know, man. Is $400 million great?

 

[etta]

I only used actual data from the US/UK/Japan and assumed that the limited and legendary editions were only sold in the US.

Factoring in the rest of Europe (and the world) and adding in sales data for potential sales of limited/legendary editions there, I can easily see $300 million being software only.

Hmm, I see.

So in comparison with Halo 5, how many of those $499 bundles are estimated to be sold, 150-200K?

 

[igordennis]

I only used actual data from the US/UK/Japan and assumed that the limited and legendary editions were only sold in the US.

Factoring in the rest of Europe (and the world) and adding in sales data for potential sales of limited/legendary editions there, I can easily see $300 million being software only.

But senjutsusage already made his mind...

So what's the consensus here? Is this a great launch?

A good launch that perhaps didnt quite match the lofty standards of previous Halos.

 

[Guymelef]

So what's the consensus here? Is this a great launch?

We don't know about sales.
We only know it's the lowest rated Xbox One exclusive, first-person shooter game of 2015

 

[BeforeU]

So what's the consensus here? Is this a great launch?

Yes but not as good as Halo 3. There is decline overall in term of sales figure. Its pretty obvious. If it was the highest selling Halo game they would have been shouting from the roof top.

This game will make them lot of money. No doubt about it.

 

[igordennis]

We don't know about sales.
We only know it's the lowest rated Xbox One exclusive, first-person shooter game of 2015

I love how they managed to get such a narrow definition that your sentence is still true.

 

[Primethius]

Hmm, I see.

So in comparison with Halo 5, how many of those $499 bundles are estimated to be sold, 150-200K?

That's the big question alongside Halo 5 numbers for me.

We'll find out this upcoming NPD. I would like to think that 150-200k is a good guess but with how quiet MS was in regards to how much of a boost Halo 5 provided the X1, it throws too many variables into the equation to properly predict.

 

[Chobel]

Hmm, I see.

So in comparison with Halo 5, how many of those $499 bundles are estimated to be sold, 150-200K?

Not Primethius but I think it will do 350K WW easy, maybe even 400K WW.

 

[JaggedSac]

Not Primethius but I think it will do 350K WW easy, maybe even 400K WW.

You think they sold 350k of the bundles. That seems waaaay too high. Unlikely they will even outsell PS4 this month.

 

[etta]

Not Primethius but I think it will do 350K WW easy, maybe even 400K WW.

400K AT $499!?! In Canada it's like $550 before tax, that's pretty off-putting.

If it was $399 maybe.

 

[Poimandres]

That comes from sales from the rest of the world and exchange rates.
Don't forget the numbers he gave was numbers we had access to and 3 markets .
Unless you think Halo 3 did not sell any copies any where else .

The numbers in other regions aren't insubstantial either...

Here's Australian Halo 3 launch numbers for example: http://www.smh.com.au/news/technology/the-halo-effect/2007/09/28/1190486528204.html

Microsoft announced today it had sold over 50,000 copies of Halo 3 in the first 24 hours of sales, making it the biggest Australian entertainment launch of all time.

The long-awaited third instalment of the hit Xbox 360 video game series earned $6 million for Microsoft in Australia alone

 

[Jigorath]

Everything I've heard about Battlefront points toward it being a cynical cash grab with no legs.

Battlefront is going sell huge throughout the holidays, there is a movie coming out.

And calling it a "cynical cash grab" is hyperbole at it's finest.

 

[The Sum of Zero]

Will it? Once Call of Duty and Battlefront come out, it's finished this year.

People also thought Jurassic World would flop.

 

[Ricky_R]

That's the big question alongside Halo 5 numbers for me.

We'll find out this upcoming NPD. I would like to think that 150-200k is a good guess but with how quiet MS was in regards to how much of a boost Halo 5 provided the X1, it throws too many variables into the equation to properly predict.

That would mean that the game actually sold pretty good. Providing that no other hardware is included, and if there's anything else included, it couldn't have amounted substantially.

Edit: Don't mind me, I forgot about the rest of the world.

 

[SenjutsuSage]

Yes but not as good as Halo 3. There is decline overall in term of sales figure. Its pretty obvious. If it was the highest selling Halo game they would have been shouting from the roof top.

This game will make them lot of money. No doubt about it.

It also took Microsoft months to confirm that Halo 4 was the best selling Halo game and best selling first party Microsoft title ever.

 

[Chobel]

You think they sold 350k of the bundles. That seems waaaay too high. Unlikely they will even outsell PS4 this month.

I'm talking Worldwide, and I expect it to sell 250K in US.

 

[Primethius]

That would mean that the game actually sold pretty good. Providing that no other hardware is included, and if there's anything else included, it couldn't have amounted substantially.

Yea, I mean this PR confused me more then anything else. I thought after UK sales there was a big decline but I'm not so sure anymore. Next NPD man... It's gonna be interesting.