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[HylianTom]

I think it's still early to call a Trump win. It really depends on what happens with Kasich, Bush, and Carson dropping out if they do. I could see Trump plateauing around where he is now, maybe manage to get another 5-8%, but once this is a three or two way race I can see Rubio, MAYBE even Cruz beating Trump, but the later is unlikely.

The sucky thing for the non-Trumps is that he has a comparatively easy path going forward.

He'll likely see a small bump from South Carolina (maybe a few percent - nothing too gaudy).
He has a formidable lead in Nevada (Rubio is reportedly skipping this state).
He'll likely see another similarly-small bump from Nevada.
Assuming that it's at least a three-way race through Super Tuesday, he wins most of those states.
He gets another larger bump from Super Tuesday domination.

By the time it's a two-person race, he has quite a delegate lead. The antiTrump isn't going to uniformly win everywhere; Trump and this person are going to trade wins - but Trump will already have that delegate lead from the early states. The antiTrump is going to have to win more than 55% of the remaining delegates in order to eeek-out a win.

 

[Ashodin]

I'm seeing on twitter that Jeb Bush's campaign manager just quit.

IS IT HAPPENING?

 

[RustyNails]

Yes, and his chances of victory are a lot higher than many people want to believe. There seems to be this general "GO TRUMP HAHAHA" sentiment among many people on the Democratic side, because they think he will get obliterated in the general. It's very strange.

Democratic party has a failsafe system of holding back extremists and populists like Trump (Bernie) for very, very good reasons: McGovern and Mondale. Republican party doesn't. It's why their caucuses are more...democratic and more direct democracy. Republican party will need to go through what the Democratic party did in '68 and '84 and once they do they will also have failsafe system in place.

 

[Slayven]

I still think he has no chance in hell winning the GE.

But if he does, can you imagine in 4 years, the people running against him? Movie stars? Book Authors??

Hell, Steve Harvey said he would run next if Trump were to win.

8 button suit executive action

 

[EatinOlives]

Yes, and his chances of victory are a lot higher than many people want to believe. There seems to be this general "GO TRUMP HAHAHA" sentiment among many people on the Democratic side, because they think he will get obliterated in the general. It's very strange.

Trump's only road to victory is a record high GOP turnout (and that's not unlikely) combined with a low Democratic voter turnout. Disgruntled, short-sighted liberals who don't vote would be doing their part in putting Trump in the White House.

 

[rjinaz]

I think Hillary supporters should ease up on the "you must vote for Hillary" talk.

This is what I'm thinking. People don't like to be told who they "need" to vote for. We saw it with this election already. Black voters didn't like it, women voters didn't like it, and Bernie supporters aren't going to like it either. Not saying not to make your point, but the more you ram it down their throats or make it sound like if they don't they are horrible people, the less likely they are going to come around and do it.

I say this as a Bernie supporter that was always going to vote Hillary regardless.

 

[Elfforkusu]

Hillary has basically been advocating for a continuation of Obama's foreign policy. All of the Republicans, including Trump, have been much more hawkish.

Trump rails on the Iraq war, from that you could conclude that he'd take a more isolationist stance for foreign policy. Not to the extent of Bernie (which is what I want), but very possibly less hawkish than Hillary. It's not clear where he actually stands on this, since the primary has been such a circus and he hasn't really had to take firm stances.

As for the rest of the GOP, yes, they are clowns.

 

[Mecha]

Poor Carson, snubbed for commercials.

Would it have been weird to just have said capitalist class? I mean, who cares what I think.

Some people try to avoid certain loaded terms when expressing ideas so people don't instantly dismiss them. It's easier to talk about the positives and negatives of capitalism and the government in general terms to the average person than slam them with words like communism, anarchism, socialism, bourgeois, proletariat, etc.

Some communist parties dropping the word communism in their name is an example of this.

People need to know the truth, don't shy away from it.

I agree, but I understand why people do.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Not excited to vote for Hilary (and in WA, my vote means nothing anyway), but she's already co-opting some of Bernie's language. She's moving left. Please vote for her in the GE because she'll be beholden to us if we continue to pressure her.

Trump is going to win this nomination, which is great because that means the Senate comes back to the Democrats and there's an outside shot they get the House, too.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Not if the Democratic candidate were to lose a key demographic.

The minority vote is the the most important demographic to win the presidency.

It's how Bush won. It's how Obama won. It'll be how the next president wins.

The youth vote is mostly for Congress.

 

[MotherFan]

I'm seeing on twitter that Jeb Bush's campaign manager just quit.

Edit: haha im a fool.

If bush drops and rubio wins the nomination hillary will lose the general.

 

[ApharmdX]

 

[Future]

But the same could be said of demographics not showing up for the Republicans at the polls, which is why Trump's nomination is so odious to them - there are a lot of GOP demographics like "moderates", some evangelicals, etc. who would refuse to vote for Trump. The fear is that they'll either decide Hillary, who's been cast as a moderate this race, will be a more "responsible" vote to them than for Trump (Sanders might be a harder sell), or they'll simply just stay at home and refuse to vote... which will affect downticket races.

And there are certainly some Sanders supporters out there who are so far gone they've proclaimed they'll refuse to vote for Hillary, but also a number who've said that, given what's at stake, they'll vote for her even if they're not wild about it (especially given what's at stake with the GOP nominees and with the Supreme Court). So I wouldn't assume "youth" are some monolithic voting block.

Republicans skew older. They will vote merely to prevent a democratic win

Democrats are young and have this my way or highway anti establishment mentality. More likely to not vote, and I'd say somewhat likely to vote trump to escalate everything into chaos and lol the whole way not to realize their mistake till their 30s

 

[adj_noun]

(and in WA, my vote means nothing anyway)

Preach!

Candidates are like mythical beasts here.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

If bush drops and rubio wins the nomination hillary will lose the general.

If you add Bush's percent to Rubios (which wouldn't directly happen), it's still less than Trump.

Something historical would need to change right now for Trump to not be the GOP candidate. Tonight basically cemented it for him.

 

[HylianTom]

And getting the race down to Trump vs AntiTrump got even more difficult: Carson says he's staying in.

 

[The Llama]

No matter what happens, just vote Democrat in the general election because it will be much, much better than the alternative.

 

[danm999]

Bush is underperforming even against his shitty polling numbers.

Screaming.

 

[Downhome]

Wow, Carson is talking DIRECTLY to Ted Cruz right now, lmao.

I also saw this, haha...

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...n-held-secret-meeting-about-dirty-tricks.html

 

[Touchdown]

You're now on my ignore list. I voted for Obama and at the midterms and at my seattle local elections.

Ok well I hope stating this publicly brings you the happiness you're looking for? =) Again, I'm not talking about some of you guys specifically when i say the Bernie supporters in general.

 

[RPGCrazied]

8 button suit executive action

Pee Wee Herman should run. Lets make it extra insane.

 

[Elfforkusu]

Democratic party has a failsafe system of holding back extremists and populists like Trump (Bernie) for very, very good reasons: McGovern and Mondale. Republican party doesn't. It's why their caucuses are more...democratic and more direct democracy. Republican party will need to go through what the Democratic party did in '68 and '84 and once they do they will also have failsafe system in place.

'68 was a bit unique, don't you think?

re: '84, I guess we'll see. I don't see the Democratic party's system being particularly successful over the last 30 years. They've had two successes, both of whom were cult of personality figures that hid other weaknesses of the party.

 

[Tubie]

Maybe Trump is like "The Boss" in MGS3, sent into the heart of the enemy to destroy it from within.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Yes, and his chances of victory are a lot higher than many people want to believe. There seems to be this general "GO TRUMP HAHAHA" sentiment among many people on the Democratic side, because they think he will get obliterated in the general. It's very strange.

I think the age of a candidate blow out, like George Sr did to Dukakis in '88, are over. The country is becoming increasingly more partisan, meaning while moderates still exist they are shrinking in size thus fewer to be swayed.

 

[LostMyNarbles]

Yes, and his chances of victory are a lot higher than many people want to believe. There seems to be this general "GO TRUMP HAHAHA" sentiment among many people on the Democratic side, because they think he will get obliterated in the general. It's very strange.

For me it's just the optimistic thought that this country cannot be so morally bankrupt to entertain somebody like Donald Trump for a position as head of government. Unfortunately with each Primary that passes I'm starting to believe this country really is morally bankrupt to the point that it may well be irreparable.

 

[Jarmel]

If you add Bush's percent to Rubios (which wouldn't directly happen), it's still less than Trump.

Something historical would need to change right now for Trump to not be the GOP candidate. Tonight basically cemented it for him.

To be fair though, Bush's possible percentages would go up in more moderate states and that might be enough to overtake Trump.

 

[Red]

I think Hillary supporters should ease up on the "you must vote for Hillary" talk.

This is what I'm thinking. People don't like to be told who they "need" to vote for. We saw it with this election already. Black voters didn't like it, women voters didn't like it, and Bernie supporters aren't going to like it either. Not saying not to make your point, but the more you ram it down their throats or make it sound like if they don't they are horrible people, the less likely they are going to come around and do it

I say this as a Bernie supporter that was always going to vote Hillary regardless.

You become a supporter of a presidential candidate by promoting or voting for that candidate. If you vote against that candidate, you are acting against them. If you don't vote for Bernie, you aren't a Bernie supporter.

 

[FiggyCal]

Bush is underperforming even against his shitty polling numbers.

Screaming.

Is he underperforming? I thought he was in last place or in 5th in most polling.

 

[rjinaz]

You become a supporter of a presidential candidate by voting for that candidate. If you don't vote for Bernie, you aren't a Bernie supporter.

Let me fix that then

I say that as a Bernie supporter that was always going to vote for Hillary regardless, if Bernie didn't win.

I'm still going to vote for Bernie in the primaries friend. I'm talking about the general election specifically.

 

[Giant Panda]

Trump rails on the Iraq war, from that you could conclude that he'd take a more isolationist stance for foreign policy. Not to the extent of Bernie (which is what I want), but very possibly less hawkish than Hillary. It's not clear where he actually stands on this, since the primary has been such a circus and he hasn't really had to take firm stances.

As for the rest of the GOP, yes, they are clowns.

He's also criticized the Iran deal among other things. To me it sounds like you are selectively seeing what already confirms with your preconceived notions.

 

[Culex]

I hope that Trump ends up with the Republican nom, just so the party can be irrevocably damaged.

 

[danm999]

Is he underperforming? I thought he was in last place or in 5th in most polling.

In terms of vote share. He isn't breaking double digits.

 

[Yoda]

I still think he has no chance in hell winning the GE.

But if he does, can you imagine in 4 years, the people running against him? Movie stars? Book Authors??

Hell, Steve Harvey said he would run next if Trump were to win.

I'm not sure a Trump like character can do what he did with the Dems. Being an outsider, sure. Outright lies (Mexican Rapists)... I'd like to think that kind of crap won't fly. Then there is the funding angle. Despite lots of people contesting what he's "really worth" it is in the billions, most other TV personalities/celebs aren't THAT rich. The only person who'd really work imo is Oprah (she has the money, and he's been somewhat involved in current events for awhile). If you limit it to those who can self-fund easily, and have displayed real passion about politics the list gets very small for people on the left.

The only other long-shot, in the future I see is maaaaybbe Mark Zuckerberg. There are rumors he's had political consultants around him way before he tried his recent India stunt, thus they were advising him on other issues. That "letter to his son" screams of being written by professional PR types, and given the amount of funding he's pumping into FWD.us he clearly has politics on his mind (and of course cheaper high skilled labor).

 

[Elfforkusu]

For far too many Sanders supporters I've met, no. It's either 100% or nothing.

Persons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed hors de combat by sickness, wounds, detention, or any other cause, shall in all circumstances be treated humanely, without any adverse distinction founded on race, colour, religion or faith, sex, birth or wealth, or any other similar criteria. To this end, the following acts are and shall remain prohibited at any time and in any place whatsoever with respect to the above-mentioned persons:
* violence to life and person, in particular murder of all kinds, mutilation, cruel treatment and torture;
* taking of hostages;
* outrages upon dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment; and
* the passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions without previous judgment pronounced by a regularly constituted court, affording all the judicial guarantees which are recognized as indispensable by civilized peoples.

I don't ask for much!

And no, posthumously labelling someone a terrorist because they were an adult male does not count.

He's also criticized the Iran deal among other things. To me it sounds like you are selectively seeing what already confirms with your preconceived notions.

This is why I say "might" and "maybe". It's impossible figure out exactly where Trump stands, but the error bars allow for him to be better than Hillary. (I would need some confirmation of that to vote for him, though)

 

[Shard]

Yes, and his chances of victory are a lot higher than many people want to believe. There seems to be this general "GO TRUMP HAHAHA" sentiment among many people on the Democratic side, because they think he will get obliterated in the general. It's very strange.

Well that is due to the difference between primary season and actual election season where minority voting is going to be rather important.

 

[RPGCrazied]

I hope that Trump ends up with the Republican nom, just so the party can be irrevocably damaged.

Until something happens like a terrorist attack, and becomes fucking President. Don't play with fire friend, might be burned.

 

[FiggyCal]

Poor Carson, snubbed for commercials.



Some people try to avoid certain loaded terms when expressing ideas so people don't instantly dismiss them. It's easier to talk about the positives and negatives of capitalism and the government in general terms to the average person than slam them with words like communism, anarchism, socialism, bourgeois, proletariat, etc.

Some communist parties dropping the word communism in their name is an example of this.

That's interesting. Can I get some examples.

I vaguely remember Jodi Dean speaking about updating the communist lingo as well. Like replacing things things like: proletariat, dictatorship of the proletariat, etc. with more 21st century sounding alternatives.

 

[Ecotic]

Rubio's logo bothers me in how it leaves out Alaska and Hawaii.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Who's this clown talking on MSNBC? What a bunch of rubbish...

 

[Aaronology]

I think Hillary supporters should ease up on the "you must vote for Hillary" talk.

This is what I'm thinking. People don't like to be told who they "need" to vote for. We saw it with this election already. Black voters didn't like it, women voters didn't like it, and Bernie supporters aren't going to like it either. Not saying not to make your point, but the more you ram it down their throats or make it sound like if they don't they are horrible people, the less likely they are going to come around and do it.

I say this as a Bernie supporter that was always going to vote Hillary regardless.

No, they don't. And that sentiment would not be nearly as common if so many hardcore Bernie fans weren't threatening to "punish" Democrats and the people who rely on them winning by either switching to Trump or abstaining altogether. When mass amounts of posters are claiming it is Bernie or Bust, what else can you do, rjinaz, but voice your opinion on why this is a dangerous, self-defeating and/or incredibly shortsighted option? And you know what? To be perfectly frank I think someone who votes for the GOP nominee knowing what is at stake just to be spiteful is a horrible person, even if I would not call them such openly.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Two days ago, he said he would take his pants off and moon everybody. Nasty guy.

 

[Leona Lewis]

Jeb Bush needs to stay in this because his SuperPAC's endless assault of ads is driving up Marco Rubio's negatives like crazy.

Of course, the longer he stays in, the more damage he does to the Bush legacy and goodwill among establishment circles.

Who would've thought that Bush would end up being the biggest spoiler in this race?

Other than Carson maybe

 

[adj_noun]

Until something happens like a terrorist attack, and becomes fucking President.

That'd be my nightmare scenario.

 

[rjinaz]

Until something happens like a terrorist attack, and becomes fucking President. Don't play with fire friend, might be burned.

I mean sure. But we haven't had a terrorist attack in 15 years. I don't think people should live their lives, or even vote, based on what "could" happen

 

[RPGCrazied]

I mean sure. But we haven't had a terrorist attack in 15 years. I don't think people should live their lives, or even vote, based on what "could" happen

Uhm, did you forget about California? Killed 15 people or so.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I still think he has no chance in hell winning the GE.

But if he does, can you imagine in 4 years, the people running against him? Movie stars? Book Authors??

Hell, Steve Harvey said he would run next if Trump were to win.

If Trump wins the left will be extremely divided afterwards for at least 2020, as very loud candidates show up beating each other on the Dems' side, pretty much ensuring another Trump victory unless something big and bad happens during his presidency. You need a coronation on the left to win, otherwise intestinal wars keep them down. That's true in pretty much all "anglo-saxon" countries, not just the US. That's why Trudeau won in Canada, and why the left can't win in the UK. It's what the Dems had until Sanders ran.

 

[danm999]

Jeb Bush needs to stay in this because his SuperPAC's endless assault of ads is driving up Marco Rubio's negatives like crazy.

They're broke.

 

[Clefargle]

Wow, Carson is talking DIRECTLY to Ted Cruz right now, lmao.

I also saw this, haha...

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...n-held-secret-meeting-about-dirty-tricks.html

They talked in a closet....

It is unclear if there were lights inside of it.

Lol

 

[rjinaz]

No, they don't. And that sentiment would not be nearly as common if so many hardcore Bernie fans weren't threatening to "punish" Democrats and the people who rely on them winning by either switching to Trump or abstaining altogether. When mass amounts of posters are claiming it is Bernie or Bust, what else can you do, rjinaz, but voice your opinion on why this is a dangerous, self-defeating and/or incredibly shortsighted option? And you know what? To be perfectly frank I think someone who votes for the GOP nominee knowing what is at stake just to be spiteful is a horrible person, even if I would not call them such openly.

Oh I agree. You can call them on it, but what do you accomplish by calling them names? You think you change their vote? Make your case with logic or reasoning. Don't insult, is all I'm saying.

 

[Giant Panda]

This is why I say "might" and "maybe". It's impossible figure out exactly where Trump stands, but the error bars allow for him to be better than Hillary. (I would need some confirmation of that to vote for him, though)

I disagree that Trump could even be close to Hillary on foreign policy. Trump sounds like a typical Republican when it comes to expanding the military and taking action to appear strong unlike Obama's "weak" foreign policy. Even if his was slightly better, it's okay to fuck things up on every other policy issue?